DOI:10.16158/j.cnki.51-1312/f.2010.08.014 2010. 08 ( 300222 ) 2004-2008 F822. 5 A 1003 5656 ( 2010 ) 08 0054 10 1911 MV = PT (1) M V P T (1) (1) (1) MV = PY (2) Y (2) (2) dm M = dp P + dy Y - dv V m = π + y - v (3) m = dm M π = dp P y = dy Y v = dv V - 54 -
ECONOMIST 2010. 08 v y = 0 m = π (3) 1 2 [ 13 3 1. ( SNA) 4 2. ( ) ( SNA) 5 1 2 3 4 5 (2 ) ( 3 ) - 55 -
2010. 08 3. (1) SNA M d V( M d ) ( ) PY PY M d V (2) MV = PY + RK (4) R K P Y (2) (4) π = MVm + MVv - KRr - RKk MV - RK - y (5) r = dr R k = dk K 1 2 (5) π = m - h r + k - 1 - y h h = RK MV (6) 0<h<1 (6) y = 0 (6) π = m - h r + k 1 - h r k h m>y + h( r + k - y) (7) (6) 1 80 95% 5% K 2-56 -
ECONOMIST 2010. 08 (7) 1 (6) m = y + h[ ( r - y ) + k (8) (8) ( ) 2 r = y + β( rm - y) ( β>0 ) β rm rm = y + 1 ( 2 σ2 σ 2 ) m = y + (1 - h) π + hk + h β 2 σ2 (9) (9) M1 π CPI 2004 1 2008 12 60 CCER 1 m y π m y + π 2-57 -
2010. 08 m y π VALUE r ( ) π 5% m π m VALUE r π π π 1 2 1 5 2 5 6 7 ( ) 5% - 58 -
ECONOMIST 2010. 08 m VALUE Granger m VALUE 1 3 3 3 5% 1 3 ( ) [ 1 [ 5 5% π y Granger r y Granger 10% VALUE y Granger y y 4 5-59 -
2010. 08-60 - 4 5 11 4 ( ) 1997 2004 1 2008 12 5 5% 1 ( ) [ 9 [ 10 m 1% π m Granger 5% VALUE r m Granger m m 6 7
ECONOMIST 2010. 08 1% 11 [ 6-61 -
2010. 08 [ 12 [ 7 [ 8 [ 11 1 [ 2 [ 3 2007 2007 1998 2007 2008 6124 1664 2 1 1 3 2 2007 2 2008 9 2008 8 2200 2007 2008-62 -
ECONOMIST 2010. 08 (1) (2) (3) ( ) 1 [ 4 [1. [ J. 2010 (1 ). [2. [ J. 2002 (3 ). [3. [ J. 2009 ( 9 ). [4. [ J. 2007 (9 ). [5. [ J.,2005 (9 ). [6. [ J. 2009 (1 ). [7. [ J. 2007 (3 ). [8 P. A. SAMUELSON and R. M SOLOW. Analytical of Anti - inflation policy [ J. American Economic Review, Vol, 50 ( May ) 1960. [9 LI - GANG LIU, WENLANG ZHANG. A New Keynesian Model For Analyzing Monetary Policy in Mainland China [ C. working paper,2007. [10 MISHKIN F. Inflation Dynamics[ C. NBER Working Paper, 2007 No. 13147. [11 GURKAYNAK, R. ANDREW L. ANDREW et al,. Inflation targeting and the anchoring of inflation expectations in the western hemisphere [ J. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review 2007 25-47. [12 PFAJFAR D. EMILIANO S. Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups[ C. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2008 No. 0824. [13 BLANCHFLOWER D M. The formation of inflation expectations: an empirical analysis for the UK[ DB / OL. NBER Working Paper 2009 No. 15388. ( 2010 05 25 ) 1 ( ) - 63 -