29 11 29 61989.SH () 4.84-5.35 A() 1,995. () 4,656. 55.46 3 3382.51 396.26 683 633 583 533 483 433 383 333 8121 932 9525 (8621)6138223 zhangh@gjzq.com.cn (8621)6138289 dongyaguang@gjzq.com.cn 9817 (8621)6138271 zhuli@gjzq.com.cn 969 15A 211 91113 3 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E ( ).98.173.262.211.255.277 N/A 76.21% 51.73% 14.8% 2.97% 8.7% EPS ( ) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ( ) N/A N/A 14.31 14.31 N/A N/A ( ) 25.86 45.72 2.6 2.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 24.94% 8.92% 1.16% 1.43% ( ) N/A N/A 1.5 2.36 2.51 2.66 A () N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A () N/A N/A 4,656. 4,656. 4,656. 4,656. EPS 1 ++2 /+ 3 212 4 1 211 3 2 1
1 2 29-211 17,473 19,491 21,131 8.8% 11.6% 8.4% 1,42 1,695 1,843 14.8% 21.% 8.4%.211.255.277 12 4.84~5.35 21 19~21 PE 1 2 3 2
... 4... 4... 4... 6... 7... 7... 8... 9... 11... 11... 15 28... 17... 19... 21... 23... 23... 25... 26... 28... 28... 28... 29... 3... 3... 32... 33... 33... 35 3
28 134 45.8 28 24 3359 12 15 1 19.95 68.5% 8 12.8% 2 () (%) () (%) - - - - (SS 45.26 97.21 43.32 65.13 36 (SS) 1. 2.15.96 1.44 12 (SS).3.64.29.43 12 - - 2. 3. 12/36 - - 19.95 3. 46.56 1 66.51 1 4
/ 3 3 6-8 43.6% 46.8% 6-8 28.5% 4 6-9 5 6-9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 678 469 449 334 253 274 216 225 175 176 12 1 26 27 28 29 1H 6 6-9 % 16 14.4 14 12 1 8 6 4.8 6.3 6.3 7.2 11.7 1.4 12.8 9.3 1.4 8.2 4 2 26 27 28 29 1H.3 5
12 15 7 83.5% 79.% 7 8 28 2,554 15.6% 186 7.3% 14.8% / / 1,799 11.% 168 9.3% 13.4% 2,334 14.2% 67 2.9% 5.3% / 1,56 9.2% 85 5.6% 6.7% 1,445 8.8% 142 9.8% 11.3% 1,49 8.6% 139 9.9% 11.1% 472 2.9% 39 8.4% 3.1% 1,782 67.1% 2,629 16.1% 26 7.8% 16.4% 339 2.1% 52 15.3% 4.1% 17.7% 32 29.6% 2.5% 3,216 2.% 1,56 9.2% 85 5.6% 6.7% 226 1.4% 3 13.3% 2.4% 2,131 13.3% 6
/ 4% 1% / 9 1 11, 12%, 3%, 43%, 6%, 8%, 27%, 13%, 14%, 27%, 9%, 11% 7
MAN Diesel Wartsila 3 12 / 8
13 98% 9% <25 /25-1 />1 /3 14 9
MAN Diesel Wartsila Caterpillar Mitsubishi MAN Diesel 15 28 16 28 18% 4% 15% 2% 37% Wartsila MAN Diesel Caterpillar Wartsila MAN Diesel 24% Marine Market Database Others 81% Mitsubishi 28 // 4 15% 23% 37% 36% 17 28 (MkW), 3.8, 12%, 2.26, 7%, 2.32, 8%, 1.79, 35%,.81, 3%,.81, 3%, 3.42, 11%, 6.62, 21% 1
18 3-8 ( kw) 19 3-8 ( ) 12 23 24 25 26 27 28 5 23 24 25 26 27 28 1 4 8 3 6 4 2 2 1 2 3 VLCC 175 853 21, 11
197 1 2 8 25 22 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 197 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 Clarksons 2 5-6 8 95% 8 2 4 7% 1%2 12
23 1986-28 12 1 8 6 4 2 4(Mbhp) (Mbhp) 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Clarksons 7 8 9 8% 1995 81 2 12 24 5 4 3 2 /() /(2 ) 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6 1 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28.4.2. Clarksons 28 2.44 44% STX 28 5% 3 7 13
25 5-8 26 STX 5 4 511 3 97 2,91 2 1 1,851 75 78 1,391 2,44 1,425 1,267 63 395 25 26 27 28 1999 28 7% 3% 4% 37% 36% 23% 28 28 28 453 4143 11%2797 16% 3-4% 27 28 25 7% 3 2 15 1 (Mdwt) (Mdwt) (Mdwt) 6% 5% 4% 3% 25 2 15 2% 1 5 1% 5 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29H1 % 23 24 25 26 27 28 9 1H Clarksons 27 5%27 25.9 122.4 14
29 27 28 26-27 / MAN Diesel / 15
3 31 3 5 16
32 27 26-28 3% 33 7 6 26 27 28 5 4 CAGR=49.% 69.4% 77.6% 44.6% 3 32.5% 2 1 ( KW) ( KW) ( ) ( ) (1 ) 28 28 28 453 99% 17
34 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 23 24 25 26 27 28 9 1H MAN 27 18 29 4 5 35 6 5 78.7% (M kw) (M kw) 73.5% 9% 8% 7% 4 3 5.% 53.3% 52.1% 52.3% 55.6% 6% 5% 4% 2 3% 1 2% 1% 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 % 18
STX 1998 15% 29 31% 36 98-9 3 25 () 35% 3% 2 25% 15 2% 15% 1 1% 5 5% % 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 9 1H + + 28 1149 3359 421 18.5% 15.6% 19.9% 19
37 5-8 4 35 3359 3 25 2631 2 15 17 1379 1615 1149 1 5 377 62 315 261 422 421 25 26 27 28 1 26-28 1.5% 14.% 19.2% 28 6.8% 4.% 1.87 6.42 38 8 1 39 8 1 25 2 15 1 5 11.% 1.% 8.4% 2254 251 1719 6.8% 1394 () 3.3% 2.7% 83 77 756 754 679 543 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 15.2% 885 9.3% 8.6% 7.8% 542 5 453 () 6.8% 398 4.2% 242 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 165 135 132 131 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 2
4 8 1 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 7.9% 459 5.% 292 3.3% 193 2.2% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.% 127 () () 93 84 82 7 63 57 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 41 128 42.5% 5.7% 37.2% 2 28 38.2% 48.5% 11.6% 21
42 27-28 43 26-28 6% 5% 4% 42.5% 5.7% 37.2% 38.2% 48.9% 27 28 3% 2% 1% 11.6% 15.6% % VLCC 44 22
45 3-6 6-7 4 3-6 6 46 / 23
47 Wartsila 48 Wartsila 3 25 2 15 1 5 ( )( ) Wartsila () 6 5 4 3 2 1 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 ( )( ) Wartsila () 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29H1 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29H1 Clarksons Wartsila 49 Wartsila 1 8 6 4 2 ( )( ) Wartsila () 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29H1 Clarksons Wartsila 1-2 5 Wartsila 51 Wartsila 8 ( )( ) Wartsila () 2,5 7 ( )( ) Wartsila () 9, 6 4 2 1-2 2, 1,5 1, 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 23Q1 23Q3 24Q1 24Q3 25Q1 25Q3 26Q1 26Q3 27Q1 27Q3 28Q1 28Q3 29Q1 23Q1 23Q3 24Q1 24Q3 25Q1 25Q3 26Q1 26Q3 27Q1 27Q3 28Q1 28Q3 29Q1 Clarksons Wartsila 24
27 28 3 28 9 28 29 5 29 6 9149 5.35 12% 28 1 15% 52 96-9 53 3-9 7 6 5 8 7 6 ( ) 7 6 5 4 3 5 4 3 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29H1 23Q1 23Q3 24Q1 24Q3 25Q1 25Q3 26Q1 26Q3 27Q1 27Q3 28Q1 28Q3 29Q1 Clarksons 54 3 25 2 9 17-8 3% 34% 35% 15 1 5 97-1 97-7 98-1 98-7 99-1 99-7 -1-7 1-1 1-7 2-1 2-7 3-1 3-7 4-1 4-7 5-1 5-7 6-1 6-7 7-1 7-7 8-1 8-7 9-1 9-7 Clarksons 28 6 25% / 4.37 28 Q1 8.49 23 1.86 28 Q3 5% 25
55 Wartsila 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Wartsila Wartsila Wartsila 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 23Q1 23Q3 24Q1 24Q3 25Q1 25Q3 26Q1 26Q3 27Q1 27Q3 28Q1 28Q3 29Q1 Wartsila 9 1-6 9.7 8 31.52 71.2% 1 =125 9 / 8.8 /(-) 23.71 56 3 25 2 15 1 (3 )()( ) (3 )() 7 6 5 4 3 2 5 1 Dec-3 Mar-4 Jun-4 Sep-4 Dec-4 Mar-5 Jun-5 Sep-5 Dec-5 Mar-6 Jun-6 Sep-6 Dec-6 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 54 26
57 Clarksons 29-212 3 9 1%2% 1 1 2% 2% 11 11 15% 2% 12 9 11 12 12 25% 58 6 5 4 (DWT) 4.2 96% 55.8 54.5 35.9 12% 1% 8% 6% 3 2 1 9.6 33% 12.8 26% 27% 2.5 16.1 39% -2% 4% 2% % -2% -34% -4% 25 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 212E -6% Clarksons 1 5 dwt 2 1/3 3 4 2 4 1 27
59 29 6 3 249 / 286.5 135 / 213.4 211 2 1/3 21 27 61.5% 27.3% 2,5 21.5% 95 16% 6-2 28
9% 28 27 7.4% 2 13 3 29 6 16 29 15, 791 C7 2.92 61 5-8 25, 2, 25 26 27 28 15, 1, 5, 24 5 719 1324 25 29% 26 41% 27 5%1.5MW 86% 21 22 1% 15% 1 2 21~212 29
62(MW) 63 ( ) 16 12 8 4 15 25% (RHS) 12 2% 88 15% 6246 1% 334 5% 43 84 56 67 98 198 53 1454 % -5% 16 12 8 4 71 136 89 11 131 25 (RHS) 3155 1337 592 513 74 25% 2% 11111 9231 15% 1% 5% % -5% 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 64(MW) 65 ( ) 5 4 3 2 1 47653 18% (MW) (RHS) 15% 32753 12% 2853 9% 12153 6% 268 346 42 468 567 764 1266 2599596 3% % 5 4 3 2 1 18% ( ) (RHS) 38682 15% 27671 12% 1854 9% 116 6% 64 73 818 91 14212921864 33116469 3% % 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 28 113 28 15.6% 29 1-6 84.7 1 43.1 2 14.52 3 6.73 1 2 12 3
4.84~5.35 21 19~21 PE 66 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 5,228.9 7,48.17 1,782.27 12,76.14 13,525.28 14,67.3 N.A. 41.68% 45.55% 12.% 12.% 8.% 4.83% 6.33% 6.28% 7.% 6.8% 6.8% 4,976.9 6,939.44 1,14.68 11,23.81 12,65.56 13,614. N.A. 39.46% 45.61% 11.14% 12.24% 8.% 252.81 468.73 677.58 845.33 919.72 993.3 N.A. 85.41% 44.56% 24.76% 8.8% 8.% 65.54% 64.94% 67.14% 69.11% 69.39% 69.13% 1,492.9 2,344.7 3,216.1 3,537.71 3,856.1 4,23.15 N.A. 57.1% 37.2% 1.% 9.% 9.% 14.45% 11.7% 1.39% 11.% 11.% 11.% 1,276.53 2,69.76 2,881.93 3,148.56 3,431.93 3,74.8 N.A. 62.14% 39.24% 9.25% 9.% 9.% 215.56 274.31 334.16 389.15 424.17 462.35 N.A. 27.25% 21.82% 16.45% 9.% 9.% 18.7% 2.55% 2.3% 2.25% 19.78% 19.89% 1,291.12 1,679.26 2,13.87 1,917.78 2,19.56 2,32.52 N.A. 3.6% 26.89% -1.% 1.% 1.% 9.31% 1.43% 8.24% 32.35% 32.35% 32.35% 1,17.87 1,54.13 1,955.26 1,297.38 1,427.12 1,569.83 N.A. 28.46% 29.99% -33.65% 1.% 1.% 12.25 175.13 175.6 62.4 682.44 75.69 N.A. 45.64%.27% 253.3% 1.% 1.% 16.18% 14.72% 13.27% 1.98% 1.82% 1.98% -33.66-24.12-7.34-58.91 N.A. -28.36% 191.69% -4.42-7.34 7978.44 1147.38 1658.89 17472.72 1949.94 2113.96 6394.79 9251.53 13266.78 1446.26 1689.77 17454.18 1583.65 2155.86 2792.11 366.46 341.17 3676.79 19.85% 18.9% 17.39% 17.55% 17.45% 17.4% 31
67 28 PE PB ROE(%) 28 29E 21E 211E 28 29E 21E 211E 31.6 7.4 21.3 18.4 18.9 2.2 4.1 3.6 3.1 38.9 6.1 16. 13.8 13.7 2.1 3.5 2.9 2.5 7.1 39.6 81.6 77.5 71.6 2.9 4.9 4.6 4.3 31.6 3.8 9.6 8.8 9.1 1.1 1.8 1.5 1.4 37.2 4.7 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.8 3.6 2.8 2.3 13.6 36.9 35.9 25.8 17.7 3.2 3.6 3.2 2.8 24.2 14. 21.1 17.9 15.3 2.5 3.3 2.7 2.3 19.3 1.3 22.5 19.8 15.9 1.7 2.3 2.1 1.9 19.6 27.6 24.1 17.9 14.1 4. 3.7 3.1 2.6 31.8 18. 31.2 25.1 2.9 4.9 9.1 6.8 5.6 21.2 25.2 29.6 21.4 16.8 3.5 4.4 3.7 3.1 Hyundai Heavy Ind 4.7 5.3 5.3 4.3 4.3 2.1 1.4 1.1.9 Daewoo 2.9 7.2 4. 3.2 3.4 1.4 1..8.7 Samsung 3.4 7.8 7. 5. 4.9 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.1 Hyundai Mipo Dockyard 19.4 5. 3.5 2.9 2.9 1.2.6.5.4 STX 4. 2.5 8. 5.5 5.4.6.6.5.4 Mitsui 7.3 11.5 16.7 12. 1.2.9 1. 1.2 1.1 Sumitomo Heavy Industry 5.9 15.5 2.2 43.1 17.6.9.8 1..9 MODEC 3.4 47.1 26.2 17.6 12.1 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 MAN 23.5 5. 33.6 21.4 13.8 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 IHI (3.6) N.A. N.A. 26.8 15..9 1. 1..9 MHI 1.8 54.7 46.7 86.8 33.3 1.1.6.7.7 KHI 3.9 25.5 26.6 19.4 21.4 1. 1.1 1.2 1.1 MAN 23.5 5. 33.6 21.4 13.8 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 Bloomberg Wind 1 2 3 32
68 28 ( KW ) ( KW) 21 ( KW) 8 (HHM) 131 1 147 12.7% (CMD) 95 147 88.6% (DMD) 124 74 147 19.% (YMD) 39 22 74 88.6% (QMD) - - 74-389 588 88.6% 29 3 29 2% 69 5 5% 16 14 12 1 8 Jun-5 Sep-5 Dec-5 Mar-6 Jun-6 Se p-6 Dec-6 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec -7 Mar-8 Ju n-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 Ma r-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 CEIC 33
7 34
71 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 212E (DWT) 36 24 32 56 7 77 13 242 297 268 196 116 77 YoY 6% -33% 33% 75% 25% 1% 34% 135% 23% -1% -27% -41% -34% (DWT) 51 61 57 76 86 86 147 163 176 138 18 73 67 YoY 38% 2% -5% 32% 13% % 72% 11% 8% -22% -21% -32% -8% ( TEU) 1427 1324 197 269 3625 4342 4656 6486 622 4725 3371 237 2297 YoY 56% -7% -17% 138% 39% 2% 7% 39% -7% -22% -29% -32% % (DWT) 15 9 22 36 34 31 52 164 79 13 15 17 2 YoY -32% -41% 151% 59% -5% -9% 7% 214% -52% -83% 1% 15% 2% (DWT) 36 24 2 49 38 3 89 48 53 13 15 18 22 YoY 218% -32% -16% 139% -23% -21% 21% -46% 11% -76% 15% 2% 25% ( TEU) 961 52 417 27 1659 1666 1725 3176 171 128 514 771 964 YoY 73% -46% -2% 396% -2% % 4% 84% -66% -88% 3% 5% 25% (DWT) 13 21 14 12 2 23 26 25 24 37 55 67 48 YoY 4% 57% -31% -19% 69% 19% 11% -5% -4% 55% 5% 21% -28% (DWT) 22 14 24 3 28 3 26 31 36 47 31 4 27 YoY 7% -34% 67% 28% -7% 6% -13% 18% 17% 31% -35% 29% -32% ( TEU) 449 623 643 559 643 942 137 1324 1486 1222 1598 1576 95 YoY 74% 39% 3% -13% 15% 47% 45% -3% 12% -18% 31% -1% -43% + (DWT) 5 9 6 4 1 3 1 5 1 22 29 1 YoY -46% 67% -29% -31% -88% 12% 134% -76% 757% 9% 13% 29% -64% (DWT) 14 16 17 2 8 4 3 3 4 7 13 9 7 YoY -15% 15% 7% 15% -59% -5% -27% 13% 21% 72% 89% -32% -21% ( TEU) 16 37 67 26 8 3 26 26 99 34 523 283 39 YoY -71% 136% 83% -62% -7% -6% 743% -1% 287% 27% 72% -46% 9% + (DWT) 25 63 52 15 (DWT) 13 32 31 1 ( TEU) 814 88 692 23 +/ 4% 6% 6% 4% 22% 6% 6% 1% 4% 45% 4% 3% / 13% 8% 11% 18% 22% 22% 28% 62% 71% 6% 41% 22% 14% 17% 21% 19% 25% 27% 25% 41% 42% 43% 31% 24% 16% 14% 29% 24% 18% 4% 5% 53% 49% 6% 5% 36% 24% 15% 14% (DWT) 275 287 295 32 323 345 368 393 418 445 478 516 554 YoY 3% 4% 3% 3% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 8% 7% (DWT) 296 291 295 34 32 343 363 385 46 437 447 469 482 YoY 2% -2% 2% 3% 5% 7% 6% 6% 5% 8% 2% 5% 3% ( TEU) 4857 5442 614 6547 7184 8123 9466 1765 12147 1364 1414 15433 163 YoY 1% 12% 11% 9% 1% 13% 17% 14% 13% 8% 8% 9% 4% () 2964 31 3126 3227 3392 3496 3639 3732 3861 3778 3977 4222 4489 YoY 7% 1% 4% 3% 5% 3% 4% 3% 3% -2% 5% 6% 6% () 2199 2257 2243 2377 259 262 2695 277 285 2677 2747 2842 2943 YoY 3% 3% -1% 6% 6% 4% 4% 3% 1% -5% 3% 3% 4% () 628 647 718 85 918 12 1134 1255 1313 1188 1294 1411 1552 YoY 12% 3% 11% 12% 14% 11% 11% 11% 5% -1% 9% 9% 1% 35
Clarksons 72 ( dwt) 23 24 25 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 212E 31.9 55.8 69.8 77.1 13.3 242.4 297.5 267.9 195.6 115.5 35.5 33.7 3.8 52.1 163.8 78.9 13.4 14.8 17. 2.4 YoY 59% -5% -9% 7% 214% -52% -83% 1% 15% 2% 12.9 18.4 22.1 25.9 27 3.4 61.4 15.6 85.9 37.1 11.6 19.7 23.4 26. 24.7 23.8 36.8 55.4 67. 48. YoY -19% 69% 19% 11% -5% -4% 55% 5% 21% -28% & 6.1 31.7 3.1 11.1 YoY 55.8 69.8 77.1 13.3 242.4 297.5 267.9 195.6 115.5 76.7 18% 22% 22% 28% 62% 71% 6% 41% 22% 14% 3.9 6. 3.9 4.4 9.3 12.1 11.3 5.3 2.1 1.1 12.9 18.4 22.1 25.9 27 3.4 61.4 15.6 85.9 37.1 YoY 43% 2% 17% 4% 13% 12% 72% -19% -57% 18.4 37. 25.8 17% 43% 69% 18.4 37. 25.8 3.7 3% 35% 3% 1% 6.1 26.4 25.8 11.1 1% 25% 3% 3%. 5.3 4.3. % 5% 5% % 36.8 55.4 67. 48. 294.7 32.1 322.6 345.2 368.5 392.6 417.8 445. 478.2 516.5 11.6 19.7 23.4 26. 24.7 23.8 36.8 55.4 67. 48. 4.1.3.9 1.8.4 5. 9.6 22.3 28.7 1.3 1.3%.1%.3%.5%.1% 1.2% 2.3% 5.% 6.% 2.%.1.2.1.7.2.1.1.1.1.1. -1.3 -.2.1 -.1-6.5.... 32.1 322.6 345.2 368.5 392.6 417.8 445. 478.2 516.5 554.2 YoY 2.5% 6.8% 7.% 6.8% 6.5% 6.4% 6.5% 7.4% 8.% 7.3% Clarksons 36
73( dwt) 23 24 25 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 212E 57.5 76. 85.8 85.8 147.3 163.2 176. 137.5 18.1 73.1 48.8 37.8 29.8 89.5 48. 53.3 12.8 14.7 17.7 22.1 YoY 139% -23% -21% 21% -46% 11% -76% 15% 2% 25% 6.3 54. 51.9 9.7 3.3 28. 29.8 26. 3.8 36. 47.1 3.6 39.7 26.9 YoY 28% -7% 6% -13% 18% 17% 31% -35% 29% -32% & 4.2 13.5 13. 1. YoY 76. 85.8 85.8 147.3 163.2 176. 137.5 18.1 73.1 67.4 25% 27% 25% 41% 42% 43% 31% 24% 16% 14% 3.2 2.8 3.1 4.9 6.3 5.7 3.8 2.3 2.4 1.7 6.3 54. 51.9 9.7 YoY -1% -4% -81% 9. 18.9 18.2 17% 36% 188% 9. 18.9 18.2. 15% 35% 35% % 4.2 13.5 13. 1. 7% 25% 25% 1%.... % % % % 47.1 3.6 39.7 26.9 295.3 33.6 319.9 343. 363.1 384.9 46.1 437.2 446.8 469.5 3.3 28. 29.8 26. 3.8 36. 47.1 3.6 39.7 26.9 19.7 8. 4. 3. 3.4 4.1 6.9 13.1 8.9 7. 6.5% 2.5% 1.2%.8%.9% 1.% 1.7% 3.% 2.% 1.5%.2.1.....1.1.1.1 2.1 3.6 2.6 3. 5.5 1.8 9. 8. 8. 7. 33.6 319.9 343. 363.1 384.9 46.1 437.2 446.8 469.5 482.3 YoY 2.8% 5.4% 7.2% 5.9% 6.% 5.5% 7.7% 2.2% 5.1% 2.7% Clarksons 37
74( TEU) 23 24 25 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 212E 1,97 2,69 3,625 4,342 4,656 6,486 6,22 4,725 3,371 2,37 2,7 1,659 1,666 1,725 3,176 1,71 128 514 771 964 YoY 396% -2% % 4% 84% -66% -88% 3% 5% 25% 644 685 914 1,37 1,411 1,725 2,36 1,795 1,729 676 559 643 942 1,37 1,324 1,486 1,222 1,598 1,576 95 YoY -13% 15% 47% 45% -3% 12% -18% 31% -1% -43% & 23.6 269.3 259.4 67.6 YoY 2,69 3,625 4,342 4,656 6,486 6,22 4,725 3,371 2,37 2,297 39.8% 5.5% 53.5% 49.2% 6.2% 49.6% 36.2% 23.8% 14.9% 14.3% 4.1 6.5 6.8 4.9 4.7 4.5 3.2 2.8 1.4 644 685 914 1,37 1,411 1,725 2,36 1,795 1,729 676 YoY -12% -4% -61% 611 539 432 34.% 31.1% 64.% 611 539 432 135 3% 3% 25% 2% 24 269 259 68 1% 15% 15% 1% % % % % 1,222 1,598 1,576 95 6,14 6,547 7,184 8,123 9,466 1,765 12,147 13,64 14,14 15,433 559 643 942 1,37 1,324 1,486 1,222 1,598 1,576 95 26 8 2 24 21 99 34 523 283 39.4%.1%.%.3%.2%.8% 2.5% 4.% 2.% 2.%.. 1.2 2.1 5.. (2) 6 6,547 7,184 8,123 9,466 1,765 12,147 13,64 14,14 15,433 16,3 YoY 8.9% 9.7% 13.1% 16.5% 13.7% 12.8% 7.6% 8.2% 9.1% 3.9% Clarksons 38
26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 7,978 11,47 16,59 17,532 19,491 21,131 7,95 12,3 1,734 11,29 43.% 4.8% 9.2% 11.2% 8.4% 2,763 4,33 4,644 5,15-6,395-9,252-13,267-14,455-16,9-17,454 6,156 6,336 7,273 7,89 % 8.2% 81.1% 82.6% 82.5% 82.6% 82.6% 2,527 2,893 3,22 3,493 1,584 2,156 2,792 3,77 3,41 3,677 18,541 25,563 25,871 27,562 % 19.8% 18.9% 17.4% 17.6% 17.5% 17.4% % #DIV/! #DIV/! 72.% 77.9% 73.2% 74.8% -46-64 -84-91 -11-11 434 435 434 434 %.6%.6%.5%.5%.5%.5% 5,215 5,691 8,75 8,11-15 -195-27 -289-327 -355 % #DIV/! #DIV/! 2.2% 17.3% 22.8% 21.8% % 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1,357 1,137 964 819-789 -964-1,253-1,262-1,43-1,521 7,225 7,264 9,475 9,266 % 9.9% 8.4% 7.8% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% % #DIV/! #DIV/! 28.% 22.1% 26.8% 25.2% EBIT 599 933 1,184 1,434 1,569 1,69 25,766 32,827 35,346 36,828 % 7.5% 8.2% 7.4% 8.2% 8.% 8.% 1,591-87 -72-5 -58 91 93 15,6 15,492 16,256 16,571 % 1.1%.6%.%.3% -.5% -.4% 1,691 392 1,168 1,338-11 -15-18 -16-3 -2 18,288 15,885 17,424 17,99 1,99 1,99 1,99 1,1 19 41 47 5 55 61 1,379 % 2.9% 3.8% 3.2% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2,767 16,984 18,523 19,9 521 887 1,28 1,41 1,712 1,842 4,895 15,725 16,688 17,666 6.5% 7.8% 7.5% 8.% 8.8% 8.7% 15 119 135 153 146 199 262 3 35 4 25,766 32,827 35,346 36,828 667 1,86 1,47 1,71 2,62 2,242 8.4% 9.5% 9.2% 9.8% 1.6% 1.6% -128-29 -237-291 -351-381 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 19.1% 19.2% 16.1% 17.% 17.% 17.% 539 877 1,234 1,42 1,712 1,861.98.173.262.211.255.277 82 73 13 14 16 18 #DIV/! #DIV/! 1.51 2.364 2.59 2.656 457 85 1,221 1,46 1,696 1,843 #DIV/! #DIV/!.67 -.72.138.173 5.7% 7.1% 7.6% 8.% 8.7% 8.7%.....11.13 #DIV/! #DIV/! 24.94% 8.94% 1.16% 1.43% 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E #DIV/! #DIV/! 4.74% 4.28% 4.8% 5.% 1,234 1,42 1,712 1,861 #DIV/! #DIV/! 12.92% 7.3% 7.27% 7.42% 363 557 61 721 N/A 42.98% 4.78% 9.17% 11.18% 8.41% 65-4 -329-385 EBIT N/A 55.65% 26.95% 21.7% 9.41% 7.74% 1,164-2,451-1,69-1,46 N/A 76.21% 51.73% 15.12% 2.64% 8.69% 2,825-478 915 1,151 N/A #DIV/! #DIV/! 27.4% 7.67% 4.19% -2,375-498 -2,459-11 -23-1 #DIV/! #DIV/! 24.6 65. 68. 7. 385 5 55 61 #DIV/! #DIV/! 84.7 16. 165. 165. -2,13-449 -2,44-49 #DIV/! #DIV/! 37.2 75. 75. 75. 1,44 9,424-1 #DIV/! #DIV/! 8. 7.6 89.5 98.7 6-2,97 1-1,527-322 -76-88 #DIV/! #DIV/! -88.11% -7.7% -57.27% -55.72% 477 6,132-77 -87 EBIT 6.9 13. 251.4 24.7-17.3-18.2 1,289 5,25-1,566 296 #DIV/! #DIV/! 8.6% 51.74% 52.41% 51.62% 39
6 12 4