Ξ :,,, :, 1 19,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2,,,,,,,,,,,, ; ; Ξ 1 :, 1995,63 2 :, 1997 4 3
2001 5,,, :,,?, 70 40?,,,, ;1 6,, 35 %,,500 ;,,, 200,,,,,,,,,, 3,,,,,,, 4, : ;; ;,,,,,,, 5,, 3 :,,1996,8 4 : :, 1999 6 5,,?,,:?? 4
,,,, (dependent variables), 6 (independent variables) 7 (intervening variables) 8,,,;,,,,,, 9,,, : 10,, 11 : 12, 13,,, 14 15,, 6,, 7 8, 9 () :, : 10; ; :,,1990,41 11,,,,,,, 10,,44 12,,,,,,;, 13,,,,,, 14:,1997,30 ; Larry J. Siegel, Criminology Theories, Patterns, and Typologies, 4th ed.,new York :West Publishing Company,p. 190. 15:,1998,23 ;:,1993,3 ;:, 1997,85 5
2001 5,,,,,,, 16 ()?,,,,, 17,,,, 18,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 19,,,, ;,,,, 20,?,,(1),, (2),, (3),, (4), 21, (1) (2),, 16 17[]:,,1990,338 18,,,,,,,,,[]:,,1996,80,84 19:,1996,185 20,, 21 []:,,2000,83 6
22 ;,,,, (1),,( ) ( ), 13 17, :13, 10, 76. 9 % ; 17,, 11. 8 %, 23 (2),,,,,,??,,,,,,,,,,,,,,33 % 24,,,,,,,,, : (1),, (2),,,, ( ) ( ) ( ), ( ),, 22, 23:,1999,72 24:,1992,2,56 7
2001 5,,,,;, ;, 25 :, 26,,, : (1) ; (2) ; (3),, 27,,,;, ;,,,,,, 28,,, 29,,,, 30???? 25 17,,399 26 24,,3 27 15,,277 28 1,,7 29[]:,,1986,110 30,, 8
, 31, 32,, (1) :,,( ) ( ) ;,( ) (2) : :; ; ( ),( ) (3) : ::-, :, ;,:,,: = - ; : = +, :( - ) - ( + ) 33 34,,,,,, :,, : 31,,, ( ) ( ) (),,, ( ) ( ),,,,, 32,,, 33,, 34,,,,,,, ;,, 9
2001 5 11,,?,;, 35 36,,,,,,, 37,, ;, ; 38 39,( 35,,,1871 1951 80,164,,70 250 :,1999,36,, [ ] :,,1992,18 :,,, :, 1996,91 :,,[]:,,1999,5,, 36 37( ),, () ( ), ( ), (),,, 38 35,,594 39 []:,,1999,621 10
) ( ) 40 ;,,, 41,, 42, 43,, :( ) ( ) ( ) 44 ;,, (1) : ; (2) :,,,,;,,,,,,,, 45 3 :,,,, 21 46, 47,?, :;, : ; (case),, : (1) : 40 [] :,,1999,35 41 35,,155 42,,,,,?? :,1999, 196 43 35,,601 44 39,,239 45[] []:,,1994,42 46[]:,, 1997,1 47,, 11
2001 5 48 (2) : 49,,, ;,,,; (),,,,? 50,,,,, 52,, : ( ) () () 53,,, 54, 51 48,:,,,, :,, 1996,44,,,,,,, :, [] :,, 2000,37,43, 49,,: :,, 1999,78 : 17,,75 50[]:,,1988,2 51,,,,,?,,,,,,,,,,,, 52,personality, [ ] S :,, 1996,608 ;:,1991,296 ;[] :,,1988,35 53 39,,147 54:,1986,6 12
:,;, ;, ;,, :,, : (1) ; (2) ; (3) ; (4) ; (5) ; (6),,,,,,,, 55,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,,, 56,,,,, ( ),; ( 55,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :(state - dependence),, 4, ;:,1999,3 56:,1998,147 13
2001 5 ),,, ( ),; ( ),, (),,,,, :,,,:, 57,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,, 58 () (),,,,,,,,, :, ;,,, :,,,,, 572,1972,538 58 39,,3 14
,,,,, ;,,,, 59,,,,,,, 60,,, 61,: ; ( ) ( ),, 62 (1876),,,,, ( ),,,,,( ), ( ) (,, ;), ;,,,(), ( ) (,, : ),,???,,,,, 59[] :,,1996,12 60[]:,,2000,5 61,,, 40,,35, :,2000,145 62,, 15
2001 5,, 63 64,,, :? () () ( )?,,,,,,, 65,,,,,,,,,, : ( ),,,,:,,;,,,,,,,,,, ;, (, ),,,,?,,? 63:,,1986 64 18, 65: :, 1996,19 16
?,,?,?,,:, (1) :, :,,, :,,,, ( ),,,,(2) :,,,,:,,, 66, ;,,, ( ), : :,,, :,,,,,,, : 66,, ; :, 1988,361,,, :,1997,29 17
2001 5 Abstract :Criminology can free itself from a theoretical predicament only when a paradigm of criminologi2 cal research is established. This paper tries to reveal the basic rules of criminological research by ex2 pounding the paradigm from the following four aspects : grades of variable, axes of analysis, experience and thinking, and theoretical framework. 18