機 構 股 票 研 究 濟 川 藥 業 (600566.CH) 兒 童 藥 市 場 將 支 撐 高 速 增 長 中 國 醫 藥 公 司 研 報 19 August,2016 上 半 年 業 績 大 幅 增 長 2016 年 上 半 年 實 現 營 收 23.5 億 元, 同 比 增 長 25.7%, 扣 非 後 歸 母 淨 利 潤 4.2 億 元, 同 比 增 長 37.8%, 基 本 每 股 收 益 0.56 元 具 體 而 言, 預 計 主 要 是 核 心 品 種 蒲 地 藍 消 炎 口 服 液 收 入 約 10 億, 同 比 增 長 逾 30% 受 益 於 限 抗 生 素 政 策 及 限 中 藥 注 射 劑 等 政 策, 外 加 獨 有 口 服 劑 型 的 優 勢, 該 品 種 此 前 已 連 續 三 年 保 持 了 30% 左 右 的 增 長 另 外, 受 惠 於 全 面 二 胎 政 策, 兒 科 類 產 品 小 兒 豉 翹 清 熱 顆 粒 亦 大 增 44% 小 品 種 方 面, 預 計 三 拗 片 增 速 約 30%, 健 胃 消 食 口 服 液 增 速 近 10% 東 科 製 藥 銷 售 預 計 亦 步 入 正 軌, 或 開 始 扭 虧 為 盈 盈 利 能 力 方 面, 上 半 年 公 司 綜 合 毛 利 率 約 85.3%, 同 比 上 升 約 0.7 個 百 分 點, 預 計 得 益 於 產 品 規 格 替 換 等 費 用 方 面, 公 司 銷 售 費 用 率 為 55.1%, 同 比 微 幅 下 降 0.1 個 百 分 點, 管 理 費 用 率 為 7.4 %, 同 比 下 降 約 1.1 個 百 分 點 因 此, 上 半 年 公 司 扣 非 淨 利 率 達 17.8%, 同 比 大 幅 上 升 1.6 個 百 分 點 Gradually declined operating expense ratio 增 持 ( 下 調 ) 現 價 : CNY28.97 ( 現 價 截 至 8 月 18 日 ) 目 標 價 : CNY34.30 (+18.4%) 公 司 資 料 普 通 股 股 東 ( 百 萬 股 ) : 810 市 值 ( 人 民 幣 百 萬 元 ) : 23,466 52 周 最 高 價 / 最 低 價 ( 人 民 幣 元 ) : 30.10/ 18.78 主 要 股 東, % 曹 龍 祥 : 63.83 股 價 表 現, % 1 個 月 3 個 月 1 年 濟 川 藥 業 1.61 22.42 2.98 上 證 指 數 -0.20 13.07 25.12 股 價 & 上 證 指 數 Source: Phillip Securities (HK) Research Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities (HK) Research 兒 童 藥 市 場 將 支 撐 高 速 增 長 二 胎 政 策 全 面 放 開 後, 根 據 各 地 孕 婦 建 卡 資 料, 預 期 新 生 兒 數 或 將 超 出 市 場 預 期, 年 增 300 萬 以 上 同 時, 兒 童 藥 還 享 有 快 速 審 批 通 道 直 接 掛 網 採 購 等 優 惠 政 策, 對 兒 童 藥 企 形 成 利 好 其 中, 兒 童 用 藥 以 呼 吸 胃 腸 類 疾 病 為 主, 占 比 80% 以 上, 公 司 的 蒲 地 藍 小 兒 豉 翹 清 熱 顆 粒 適 應 該 等 需 求, 預 期 有 可 能 進 入 國 家 醫 保 目 錄, 從 而 加 速 放 量 同 時, 公 司 行 銷 能 力 較 強, 銷 售 人 員 已 經 超 過 2000 人 同 時, 公 司 強 化 藥 店 專 業 化 行 銷, 擴 大 藥 店 覆 蓋 規 模, 積 極 延 伸 OTC 管 道 終 端, 亦 將 有 助 於 提 升 公 司 將 產 品 迅 速 推 向 市 場 財 務 資 料 CNY mn FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Net Sales 2935 3704 4738 5831 Net Profit 519 687 915 1152 EPS, CNY 0.67 0.88 1.14 1.42 PER, x 43.24 32.92 25.32 20.37 BVPS, CNY 2.94 3.41 4.53 5.94 P/BV, x 9.87 8.49 6.40 4.87 ROE, % 30.1 27.7 28.7 27.2 Debt/Equity (%) 46.37 32.17 33.33 33.33 Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities Est. 研 研 研 研 研 范 國 和 (+ 86 21 51699400-110) fanguohe@phillip.com.cn Page 1 PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH
濟 川 藥 業 (600566 CH) 公 司 研 報 外 延 並 購 豐 富 產 品 線 濟 川 藥 業 於 2014 年 底 收 購 東 科 製 藥 70% 股 權, 該 公 司 擁 有 全 國 獨 家 品 種 7 個 獨 家 劑 型 5 個, 主 要 產 品 婦 炎 舒 膠 囊 甘 海 胃 康 膠 囊 黃 龍 止 咳 顆 粒 等, 這 與 公 司 目 前 以 兒 童 用 藥 為 主 的 產 品 結 構 有 較 好 協 同 性 得 益 於 濟 川 強 大 的 銷 售 網 路, 東 科 製 藥 上 半 年 已 扭 虧 為 盈, 淨 利 潤 約 300 萬, 此 後 預 計 還 將 進 一 步 改 善 低 估 值 白 馬 公 司 主 導 產 品 降 價 壓 力 較 小, 加 上 強 有 力 的 銷 售 及 成 梯 隊 的 產 品 線, 未 來 高 增 長 較 為 確 定 行 銷 並 軌 後 東 科 製 藥 還 將 貢 獻 增 量, 我 們 預 期 公 司 將 維 持 25-30% 的 成 長 給 予 公 司 30 倍 於 2016 年 每 股 收 益 的 估 值, 目 標 價 為 34.3 元, 為 增 持 評 級 ( 現 價 截 至 8 月 18 日 ) Historical P/E Valuation Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities (HK) Research 風 險 提 示 醫 藥 招 標 降 價 風 險 ; 外 延 並 購 低 於 預 期 Page 2 PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH
濟 川 藥 業 (600566 CH) 公 司 研 報 財 務 報 告 FYE 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F Valuation Ratios Price Earnings 43.89 43.24 32.92 25.32 20.37 Price to Book 18.83 9.87 8.49 6.40 4.87 Dividend Yield 0.0% 1.4% 2.4% 2.8% 3.5% Per share data(rmb)) EPS Adjusted 0.66 0.67 0.88 1.14 1.42 Book Value Per Share 1.54 2.94 3.41 4.53 5.94 Dividends Per Share 0.00 0.40 0.70 0.80 1.00 Growth& Margin Revenue growth - 22.0% 26.2% 27.9% 23.1% Gross Profit growth - 21.1% 26.3% 28.6% 23.4% Net Profit growth - 29.0% 32.2% 33.3% 25.9% Profitability Ratios Gross Margin 84.6% 84.0% 84.1% 84.5% 84.7% Net Profit Margin 16.7% 17.7% 18.5% 19.3% 19.8% Dividend Payout Ratio % 0.0% 60.2% 79.7% 69.9% 70.3% Key Ratios Return on Assets 22.5% 19.3% 19.8% 21.6% 20.4% Return on Equity 42.3% 30.1% 27.7% 28.7% 27.2% Effective Tax Rate 13.4% 14.1% 14.6% 14.5% 14.5% Liability ratio 42.8% 31.7% 24.3% 25.0% 25.0% Income Statement(RMB: mn) Revenue 2,406 2,935 3,704 4,738 5,831 - Cost of Goods Sold 370 469 590 734 892 Gross Income 2,036 2,466 3,114 4,003 4,939 - Selling, General & Admin Expenses 1,611 1,915 2,375 3,004 3,673 Operating Income 425 551 739 1,000 1,265 - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -53-58 -63-65 -75 Pretax Income 465 605 800 1,065 1,340 - Income Tax Expense 62 85 116 154 194 Income Before XO Items 403 519 683 910 1,146 - Minority Interests 0 0-3 -5-6 Net Profit 403 519 687 915 1,152 Source: Company, Phillip Securities (HK) Research Estimates ( 財 務 資 料 截 至 8 月 18 日 ) Page 3 PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH
PHILL 濟 川 藥 業 (600566 CH) 公 司 研 報 PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price +5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20%upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -20% Reduce 4-5% to -20% downside from the current price <-20% Sell 5 >20%downside from the current price We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd ( Phillip Securities ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. 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PHILL 濟 川 藥 業 (600566 CH) 公 司 研 報 SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Raffles City Tower 250, North Bridge Road #06-00 Singapore 179101 Tel : (65) 6533 6001 Fax : (65) 6535 6631 Website: www.poems.com.sg HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Exchange Participant of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) 22776600 Fax (852) 28685307 Websites: www.phillip.com.hk INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A Jakarta 10220 Indonesia Tel (62-21) 57900800 Fax (62-21) 57900809 Website:www.phillip.co.id THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Thailand Tel (66-2) 6351700 / 22680999 Fax (66-2) 22680921 Websitewww.phillip.co.th UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Capital Limited 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44-20) 7426 5950 Fax (44-20) 7626 1757 Website: www.kingandshaxson.com MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block B Level 3 Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel (603) 21628841 Fax (603) 21665099 Website: www.poems.com.my JAPAN PhillipCapital Japan K.K. Nagata-cho Bldg., 8F, 2-4-3 Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0014 Tel (81-3) 35953631 Fax (81-3) 35953630 Website:www.phillip.co.jp CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd No 436 Hengfeng Road, Greentech Unit 604, Postal code 200070 Tel (86-21) 51699400 Fax (86-21) 63532643 Website: www.phillip.com.cn FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Limited 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance 75008 Paris France Tel (33-1) 45633100 Fax (33-1) 45636017 Website: www.kingandshaxson.com UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL 60604 USA Tel +1.312.356.9000 Fax +1.312.356.9005 AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 12, 15 William Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel (613) 96188238 Fax (613) 92002272 Website: www.phillipcapital.com.au