Development of China s P e t r o c h e m i c a l Industry and Role of Transnational P e t r o c h e m i c a l Corporations.
(1) ( ) (2) WTO ( T R I M S ) (TRIPS (3) (4) i
The main purpose of this study confers development of China s p e t r o c h e m i c a l industry and role of transnational p e t r o c h e m i c a l corporation.(1) It is found out that current industry gathers in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong through production of related petrochemical products. To contrast with the China government to open up ethylene joint ventures (JV) of four foreign corporations, a key issue has been derivated. Why the government broke situation of m o n o p o l i z a t i o n of original two domestic petrochemical groups of Sinopec and CNPC as well as open up the best position of the industry being gathered to four? (2) During p a r t i c i p a t i o n of WTO, the situation of promise and practice has been analyzed. It is discovered that serious problem are existed; especially, regarding to TRIMS and TRIPS. Does it an administrative delay or consideration of involved development strategy?(3) The development s t r a t e g y of the China government has been proved and the process of ethylene production capability has been compared. The average of ethylene production capability is ranked the last among Asian countries before JV. Extensive production technology has been brought in afterward as well as after related technology and knowledge being obtained; mass ethylene production capability will be invested domestically by S i n o p e c a n d C N P C in the future.(4) Therefore, it is induced that a strategy can be adapted for those technology falls behind countries. Opening and developing market attracts foreign countries and actively learns their advanced t e c h n o l o g y in another. K e y w o r ii
......i...ii...iii...v................. v i i i...1...1...2...8...11...14...16...19...19...20...24...35...36...44...61...61...67 WTO - - -...73...74...80...103...104 i i i
...111...114...116...120...125...125...128...131...149...169 iv
1-2- 1...8 2-1- 12002...20 2-2- 11999 2003...21 2-2- 2...23 2-2- 3...25 2-3- 11995 2003...26 2-3- 2...27 2-3- 32000 2005...27 2-3- 41999 2002...30 2-3- 52003...30 2-3- 61999 2002...30 2-3- 71999 2002...31 2-3- 81993 2003...32 2-3- 91993 2003...32 2-3- 101997-2003...33 2-3- 111997 2003...34 3-1- 11978 2003...41 3-1- 22003...41 3-1- 31990 1997...41 3-1- 419972001 OPEC...42 3-1- 51997 2003...43 3-1- 61997 2003...43 3-2- 12003...44 3-2- 2...45 3-2- 3...45 3-2- 41997 2003...49 3-2- 5...48 3-2- 61995 1999...49 v
3-2- 7...50 3-2- 81990 2003 ( P P )...50 3-2- 91997 2003...51 3-2- 101997 2003...51 3-2- 111990 2003 (P P )...52 3-2- 121995 2003...52 3-2- 131999 2004...52 3-2- 141991 2004...53 3-2- 151996 2004...53 3-2- 161997 2001...55 3-2- 171997 2001...55 3-2- 181997 2001...55 3-2- 192001 2003...56 3-2- 201997 2003...59 3-2- 211997 2003...60 4-1- 12002C N P CSinopec...62 4-1- 22000...64 4-2- 1...68 4-2- 22002 2008...68 4-2- 32000...68 5-1- 1...76 5-1- 2...77 5-1- 3...80 5-2- 11990 2000...81 5-2- 22002...81 5-2- 32003...82 5-2- 4...83 5-2- 5...84 5-2- 61995 2003...85 5-2- 71995 2003...87 v i
5-2- 81995 2003...89 5-2- 91995 2003 ABS...91 5-2- 101995 2003L D P EL L D P E...93 5-2- 111995 2003H D P E...95 5-2- 121995 2003P O M...97 5-2- 131995 2003 PC...97 6-1- 12000...110 6-2- 11979 1995 GDP ( )...113 6-2- 22002...113 6-2- 32002...113 6-3- 12000...119 6-3- 22011...120 1...131 2...132 3...133 4...134 5...137 6...137 7...138 8...139 919781 9 8 9...141 10...142 11...142 12 1000...142 13 500...143 14 WTO...144 15 WTO...146 16 ( C N P C )...147 17 ( S I N O P E C )...147 vii
1-4- 1...13 1-6- 1...18 2-2- 12001 2004...22 2-2- 21999 2006...22 2-2- 32000...23 2-2- 4...25 2-3- 1 WTO...28 2-3- 2...29 3-1- 12001 2004...37 3-1- 2...40 3-2- 1...9 4-1- 1 P E...63 4-1- 2 P E...63 4-1- 3...66 4-2- 1...70 4-2- 2...71 5-2- 11995P P...86 5-2- 22004P P...86 5-2- 31995P S...88 5-2- 42004P S...88 5-2- 51995 PVC...90 5-2- 62004 PVC...90 5-2- 71995 ABS...92 v i i i
5-2- 82004 ABS...92 5-2- 91995L D P EL L D P E...94 5-2- 102004L D P EL L D P E...94 5-2- 111995H D P E...96 5-2- 122004H D P E...97 5-2- 131995P O M...98 5-2- 142004P O M...99 5-2- 151995 P C...100 5-2- 162004 P C...101 1...135 2...136 3...140 42001...139 5 SINOPEC...141 6...144 i x
x
1 2006 2001 WTO WTO WTO? WTO WTO WTO? (1) ( 2 ) (3)
1 ( Richard M. Auty 1992 < Industrial Policy Reform in China: Structural and Regional Imbalances > 90 ( R o b e r t M. S o l o w 1957 < Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function > 1909 1949 GNP 87.5% 12.5% 4 S i m o n K u z n e t s 1966 < Modern Economic GrowthRate, Structre, and Spread > 1955 1 2 3 4 Robert M. Solow, T e c h n i c a l C h a n g e a n d t h e A g g r e g a t e P r o d u c t i o n F u n c t i o n, Review of Economics and Statistics, v o l. 3 9, i s s u e 3 ( 1957 320. 2
5 ((wild- geese- flying pattern) ( K a n a m e A k a m a t s u The Developing Economies ( ( h e t e r o g e n i z a t i o n ( ) ( h o m o g e n i z a t i o n ( (high- degree hete rorogenization) ( 5 S i m o n K u z n e t s,modern Economic GrowthRate, Structre, and Spread (New HavenY a l e U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s, 1966),81. 6 K a n a m e A k a m a t s u, A h i s t o r i c a l p a t t e r n o f e c o n o m i c g r o w t h i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s, The Developing Economies, p r e l i m i n a r y i s s u e (1962):3-2 5. 3
7 C h r i s t i a n S c h r ö p p e l a n d M a r i k o N a k a j i m a, T h e C h a n g i n g I n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e F l y i n g. G e e s e M o d e l o f E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t., Japanstudien,v o l. 1 4 ( 2 0 0 2 ) :2 0 4. 4
7 < > 9 3-5 Shell Shell C N O O C ( ) 2006 2003 1997 1991 Shell 1 1980 16 0 () E I U 8 I b i d.,2 0 7. 9 ( 2 0 0 2 7 4-1 0 M e h m e t Ö g ü t ç ü, F o r e i g n D i r e c t I n v e s t m e n t a n d I m p o r t a n c e o f t h e G o W e s t S t r a t e g y i n C h i n a s E n e r g y S e c t o r, in OECD: Foreign Direct Investment in China: Callenges and Prospects for Regional Development,M a r c h,2002. 5
1997 < 1. a. (Mansanto) ( H e r c u l e s ) b. ( U n i o n C a r b i d e ) (Eastman) (Shell) c. 2. 3000 3000 ( ) 1995 8 1 4060 700 1 1 T h e E c o n o m i s t I n t e l l i g e n c e U n i t,multinational companies in China:Winners and losers ( L o n d o n : T h e E c o n o m i s t I n t e l l i g e n c e U n i t L i m i t e d, 1 9 9 7 ), 3 5-36. 6
(Bayer) 10% 8200 1996 1998 3. ( R h o n e P o u l e n c ) () 2004 1-2- 1 1 2 2 2 h t t p : / / b i g 5. m o f c o m. g o v. c n / a a r t i c l e / b / g / 2 0 0 5 0 4 / 2 0 0 5 0 4 0 0 0 8 4 3 1 2. h t m l 7
1-2- 1 2004 10 2004 10 3000 1 3000 5000 7 5 20 20 10 1986 < > 2 1 3 1 3 ( 1 9 8 6 ) 5-1 1 8
WTO TRIPsT R I M s ( 1 4 1 5 (Oxford Economics and The Signal Group ) (The China Business Forum) 2005Report to Congress on China s WTO Compliance> ( 1 4 2 00 55 1 7 1 5 O x f o r d E c o n o m i c s a n d T h e S i g n a l G r o u p. T h e C h i n a E f f e c t : A s s e s s i n g t h e I m p a c t o n t h e U S E c o n o m y o f T r a d e a n d I n v e s t m e n t w i t h C h i n a, T h e C h i n a B u s i n e s s F o r u m, J a n u a r y, 2 0 0 6. 1 6 U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e. 2 0 0 5 R e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s o n C h i n a s W T O C o m p l i a n c e, U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e, D e c e m b e r, 2 0 0 5. 9
2005 1 < > 2005 4 < > () 2001 (Fortun) 500 (Fortune Global 500) < 500 > 1 7 (Fortune) 500 < 1000 1 7 500 ( 2 0 0 2 9 ) 1 8 ( 2 0 0 5 9 ) 1 9 2 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 ( ) h t t p : / / r e s o u r c e. e m a g e c o m p a n y. c o m / b i g 5 / c h e m i s t r y / h u a g o n g z h i z h a o. h t m 2 0 2004 < > ( 2 0 0 5 ) 10
(Petrochemical) (Concept) ( D o w c h e m i c a l ( 3) 2 2 42 2 1 D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c..petrochemical Industry in China 2004. J a p a n : D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c., 2 0 0 3. 2 2 WTO ( 2 0 0 3 8 ) 225-2 2 6 11
H. Peter GrayIngo Walter 1985 ( 4 ) 1 2 ( ) 1. 2. (SM) ( V C M ) ( E G ) (PTA) ( A N )( C P L 3. (PE) (PP) ( P V C ) (PS) - - (ABS) (Dunning) (FDI 2 3 2 3 D u n n i n g J o h n H., Multinational enterprises and the global economy ( E n g l a n da d d i s o n -W e s l e y P u b l i s h i n g c o m p a n y1992), 6. 12
ABS ABS 13
< 500 > < >< > < > 14
( 34% 68% 15
16 WTO WTO WTO 1. 2. 1-6- 1
WTO 17
Ch.6 Ch.6 Ch.5 Ch.2.3.4 1-6-1 18
( ) ( ) WTO 10% (1) P E P SPVC 2 4 ( 5) 2 4 : 1 5205 ( )1 9 9 0 4 6 1 5 ( )1 9 9 0 6 1 3 6 19
( 6) 2002 2897 (2-1- 1 573 743 553 2-1- 12002 2003/2004 ( 2 0 0 3 ) 81 1999 2003 8.04%(2-2- 1) (2001 2005 ) 9.5% 7 % 2003 L D P E H D P ESMEG PVC 1540 ( 2-2- 3) 2 5 8.5% 2009 2630 9.3% 8.5% 2% 2860 2410 ( 2-2- 4) 2 6 2-2- 3 2003 2009 2 5 I a n Y o u n g, R i d i n g A s i a ' s I n d u s t r y U p c y c l e, Chemical Week (New York ), v o l. 1 6 7, I s s u e. 1 3 ( A p r i l 2 0, 2 0 0 5 ) : 2 8. 2 6 20055 1 7 20
17 6.5 3 1.8 2003 2009 2 1090 7 650 300 2 8 2-2- 11999 2003 % 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 7.1% 8% 7.5% 8.3% 9.3% 8.04% 2004 ( 200 2003 2009 650 300 2002 20 2005 70 ( 2-2- 2) ( 2-2- 1) 3 ( 2-2- 3) 2003 2009 0.6 0.9 ( 2-2- 2) 2 9 2-2- 2 2003 2009 2003 850 2009 1790 13.2% 2003 890 2009 2330 17.4 2 7 P e c k H w e e S i m a n d R o b e r t W e s t e r v e l t, P e t r o c h e m i c a l s, Chemical Week (New York ), vol.166, I s s u e. 1 1 ( M a r c h 3 1, 2 0 0 4 ) : 2 1. 2 8 R o b e r t W e s t e r v e l t a n d P e c k H w e e S i m, R e c o v e r y L i f t s M o o d a n d A t t e n d a n c e a t N P R A, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l. 1 6 7, I s s u e. 1 2 ( A p r i l 6, 2 0 0 5 ) : 9.I b i d.,21. 2 9 K e r r i W a l s h, S F O o f t h e Y e a r : R e t i r e d G e o r g i a G u l f C F O O f f e r s F u l l D i s c l o s u r e, Chemical Week (New Y o r k ), v o l. 1 6 6, I s s u e. 1 6 ( M a y 1 2, 2 0 0 4 ) : 2 2. L y n T a t t u m, R e c o v e r y i s I n t h e A i r, Chemical Week (New York ), v o l. 1 6 6, I s s u e. 1 4 ( A p r i l 2 8, 2 0 0 4 ) : 4 1. P e c k H w e e S i m a n d R o b e r t W e s t e r v e l t, P e t r o c h e m i c a l s,21. 21
2-2- 12001 2004 2 0 0 5 5 1 7 2-2- 21999 2006 G l o b a l F i n a n c i a l D a t a b a s 22
2-2- 32000 ( 2 0 0 1 2-2- 2 ASEAN 2003 116.6 36.4 5.9 3.6 8.5 7.3 3.0 8.0 25.5 32.4 8.9 2009 149.1 49.4 6.1 4.5 17.9 8.1 5.0 7.8 26.4 32.9 23.3 03-09 32.5 13.0 0.2 0.9 9.4 0.8 2.0-0.2 0.9 0.6 14.4 03-09 4.2% 5.2% 0.5% 3.7% 13.2% 1.7% 8.9% - 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 17.4% 2 00 55 1 7 23
2003 2009 2-3- 2 3 1 2003 4.38 2000 2005 ( 2-3- 3) 2000 8.2% 2005 14.8 3 0 D a v i d H u n t e r, T i e d t o C h i n a, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l. 1 6 6, I s s u e. 2 7 ( A u g u s t 1 8, 2 0 0 4 ) : 3. N a t a s h a Alperowic z,, C h i n a B u i l d s U p C o n t r a c t o r s ' H o p e s, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l. 1 6 6, I s s u e. 2 1 ( J u n e 2 3, 2 0 0 4 ) : 2 3. A n d r e w W o o d a n d a n d A r n o l d P e a r l m a n, S h e l l P u t s D o w n R o o t s i n C h i n a, Chemical Week (New Y o r k ), v o l. 1 6 6, I s s u e. 1 8 ( M a y 2 6, 2 0 0 4 ) : 3 9. Ian Young, A Soft Landing S e e m s L i k e l y a s D e m a n d S t a y s S t r o n g, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l. 1 6 7, I s s u e. 2 8 ( A u g u s t 2 4, 2 0 0 5 ) : 3 1. 3 1 I a n Y o u n g, C h i n a H e a d e d f o r a S o f t L a n d i n g?, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l. 1 6 6, I s s u e. 2 7 ( A u g u s t 1 8, 2 0 0 4 ) : 1 7. 24
2-2- 3 ASEAN 2003 97.6 35.8 3.8 2.6 15.4 4.6 2.8 5.6 22.0 23.8 2.3 2009 132.8 52.8 4.6 3.6 26.3 6.3 5.0 5.5 25.0 30.3 4.1 03-09 35.2 17.0 0.8 1.1 10.9 1.6 2.3-0.1 3.0 6.5 1.8 03-09 5.3% 6.7% 3.1% 5.9% 9.3% 5.2% 10.4% - 0.2% 2.1% 4.1% 10.1% 2 0 0 5 5 1 7 2-2- 4 2 00 55 1 7 2 0 0 6-2 0 0 8 8. 5 %2 0 0 9 8% 25
1995 2003 ( 2-3- 1) 2003 35 76.9%67.9 69.7 2-3- 1 2-3- 11995 2003 Share of: 1995 2003 Total merchandise imports 6.3 12.5 Agricultural products 1.7 3.7 Of which: Food 1.8 3.7 Mining products 1.1 0.6 Manufectures 7.6 15.9 Of which: Chemicals 2.2 3.2 Other semi- manufactures 5.5 14.9 M a c h i n e r y 3.5 11.9 Of which: Office amd telecom equiment 5.4 23.7 Electrical machinery and apparatus 9.0 20.9 Textiles 11.6 19.8 Clothing 14.9 16.9 Other consumer goods 25.5 36.7 Of which: Toys and games 52.3 76.9 Footwear 48.4 67.9 Travel goods 47.4 69.7 F u r n i t u r e 11.2 38.2 W T O, O x f o r d E c o n o m i c s a n d T h e S i g n a l G r o u p. T h e C h i n a E f f e c t : A s s e s s i n g t h e I m p a c t o n t h e U S E c o n o m y o f T r a d e a n d I n v e s t m e n t w i t h C h i n a, T h e C h i n a B u s i n e s s F o r u m, ( J a n u a r y, 2 0 0 6 ) : 9. 26
2-3- 2 ASEAN 99.1 30.8 5.6 3.1 6.8 5.5 2.6 7.1 21.2 28.0 8.3 2003 97.6 35.8 3.8 2.6 15.4 4.6 2.8 5.6 22.0 23.8 2.3 1.4-5.0 1.8 0.5-8.5 0.9-0.2 1.6-0.8 4.2 6.0 131.7 40.8 5.7 3.6 13.6 6.8 4.2 7.0 23.2 31.8 21.0 2009 132.8 52.8 4.6 3.6 26.3 6.3 5.0 5.5 25.0 30.3 4.1-1.1-12.0 1.1-0.1-12.7 0.5-0.8 1.5-1.8 1.5 16.9 2 00 55 1 7 2-3- 32000 2005 2000 2005* China 8.2 14.8 +6.5 Taiwan 3.3 2.1-1.2 South korea 3.3 2.6-0.7 Singapore 1.6 0.9-0.7 Hong Kong 0.9 0.5-0.4 Japan 12.0 8.3-3.8 Total 29.4 29.2-0.2 2 0 0 5 O x f o r d E c o n o m i c F o r e c a s t i n g L t d.(oef) O x f o r d E c o n o m i c s a n d T h e S i g n a l G r o u p. T h e C h i n a E f f e c t : A s s e s s i n g t h e I m p a c t o n t h e U S E c o n o m y o f T r a d e a n d I n v e s t m e n t w i t h C h i n a, T h e C h i n a B u s i n e s s F o r u m, ( J a n u a r y, 2 0 0 6 ) : 7. 27
2-3- 1 O x f o r d E c o n o m i c F o r e c a s t i n g L t d.(oef) O x f o r d E c o n o m i c s a n d T h e S i g n a l G r o u p. T h e C h i n a E f f e c t : A s s e s s i n g t h e I m p a c t o n t h e U S E c o n o m y o f T r a d e a n d I n v e s t m e n t w i t h C h i n a, T h e C h i n a B u s i n e s s F o r u m, ( J a n u a r y, 2 0 0 6 ) : 1 3. PVCP E P P 7 1997 P P 38%( 2-3- 2 28
2-3- 2 ( 1 9 9 7 4 7 ( 1. 2002 42800 ( 2-3- 4) 2001 37394 14.46 2002 15.57 10.98% 13.78% 2003 63.6016.90%18.40( 2-3- 5) 29
2-3- 41999 2002 1999 2000 2001 2002 14405.59 18459.56 23072.22 26664.74 28.14% 24.99% 15.57% 4179.2 5750.74 7256.38 8053.2 37.60% 26.18% 10.98% 3589.9 5142.31 6669.98 7588.78 43.24% 29.71% 13.78% 22579.3 29582.63 37394.19 42800.54 31.02% 26.41% 14.46% 1999 ( 1 9 9 9 2000 ( 2 0 0 0 2001 ( 2001 2002 ( 2 0 0 2 2-3- 52003 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 63.80% 62.40% 61.70% 62.30% 63.60% 18.50% 19.40% 19.40% 18.80% 16.90% 15.90% 17.40% 17.80% 17.70% 18.40% 2003~2004 ( 2 0 0 4 ) 3 5 9-3 6 1 2. ( 2-3- 5 ( 2-3- 6) 9.079.79 13.50%10.51 2-3- 61999 2002 1999 2000 2001 2002 1061.8 7.37% 1676.9 9.09% 2789.8 12.09% 3206 12.02% 497.3 3.45% 617.9 3.35% 569.3 2.47% 825.3 3.09% 725.7 5.04% 859.7 4.66% 992.1 4.30% 994.8 3.73% 1328 9.22% 1967 10.66% 2299.6 9.97% 2419 9.07% 1308.6 9.09% 1992.3 10.80% 2426.8 10.52% 2612.7 9.79% 2165.7 15.04% 2167.9 11.75% 2646.6 11.47% 3602 13.50% 30
1826.2 12.68% 2376.1 12.88% 3370.5 14.61% 3738.8 14.01% 1009.8 7.01% 1102.9 5.98% 1238.4 5.37% 1601.3 6.00% 1406 9.77% 2110.7 11.44% 2355.8 10.21% 2804.5 10.51% 2798 19.43% 3245 1.59% 3845 16.67% 4175.2 15.65% 228.9 1.59% 300 1.63% 441.2 1.91% 627 2.35% 41.7 0.29% 30.5 0.17% 94.8 0.4% 73.2 0.27% 14397.7100.00%1846.9100.00%23069.9 100.00%26679.8100.00% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2002 15.57% ( 2-3- 7) 2-3- 71999 2002 2-3 - 6 31 ( 1. ( 2-3- 8) 86.49( 2-3- 9
2-3- 81993 2003 2004 ( 2 0 0 4 ) 4 0 5 2-3- 91993 2003 1994-11.48% 42.76% 8.98% 4.36% 1995 5.24% - 2.81% 30.01% 7.34% 1996-4.60% - 2.53% 20.17% 1.53% 1997-4.25% 10.23% 24.70% 7.30% 1998 0.36% 5.37% 3.98% 2.86% 1999 14.30% 10.93% 11.64% 12.52% 2000-0.61% 39.25% 7.30% 12.92% 2001 6.83% 17.75% 15.82% 13.22% 2002 36.05% 27.96% 55.33% 38.95% 2003 12.41% 10.21% 86.49% 36.57% 2-3 - 8 2. 2003 21.9021.60%20.50( 2-3- 11) ( 2-3- 10) 32
2-3- 101997-2003 % 1997/1998 1998/1999 1999/2000 2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 13.27% 12.78% 28.26% 36.71% 46.42% 56.29% - 6.64% 32.64% 28.58% 32.29% 43.41% 68.20% 28.79% 16.10% 71.99% 39.14% 60.90% 55.78% 26.36% 7.43% 24.26% 40.33% 38.67% 39.11% - 93.97% - 1078.51% 202.14% 61.60% 37.12% 61.33% - 45.90% 8.73% - 19.78% - 10.92% 105.55% 500.54% - 23.57% 36.13% 30.38% 12.40% 40.67% 20.46% 50.13% 3.64% 32.80% 299.28% 54.87% 67.99% 19.61% 91.60% 191.31% 33.73% 81.55% 97.34% 22.42% 50.31% - 5.77% 5.96% 2.10% 105.86% - 211.50% - 230.49% - 221.08% - 328.55% 168.68% 66.03% 10.53% - 8.30% - 14.40% 12.32% 54.38% 18.57% 30.72% - 13.46% 6.21% 34.55% 30.02% 0.22% 15.64% - 24.84% 4.32% 14.70% 39.79% 40.01% 2-3 - 1 0 33
2-3- 111997 2003 % 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2681622 100.0% 3037473 3425799 4393771 6006686 8795098 13745469 100.0% 592237 22.1% 552935 733390 943011 1247474 1788973 3008978 21.9% 331258 12.4% 426622 495298 851840 1185262 1907121 2970938 21.6% 617830 23.0% 780692 838694 1042191 1462483 2027974 2821145 20.5% - 119383-4.5% - 7202 70472 212924 344087 471823 761186 5.5% 113510 4.2% 61410 66774 53568 47718 98082 589026 4.3% 222521 8.3% 170071 231525 301852 339271 477246 574884 4.2% 19240 0.7% 28885 29937 39756 158737 245835 412978 3.0% 11439 0.4% 13682 26215 76367 102128 185415 365905 2.7% 94411 3.5% 115574 173720 163691 173448 177089 364564 2.7% 17577 0.7% - 19599 25575-30965 70770 190147 315710 2.3% 153372 5.7% 169519 155451 133070 149462 230742 273586 2.0% 126813 4.7% 165764 143454 152362 204997 266538 267135 1.9% 1998 ( 1 9 9 8 ) 70 1999 ( 1 9 9 9 ) 267 2000 ( 2 0 0 0 ) 3 2 0 2001 ( 2 0 0 1 ) 3 5 8 2002 ( 2 0 0 2 ) 375 2003 ( 2 0 0 3 )4 0 6 2004 ( 2 0 0 4 ) 3 9 8 34
( 1) (1) (2) 100 35
(3) 21.90%21.60%20.50% ( ) 3-1- 2 2004 7339 1392 ( 3) 4811 341 7 3 2 BP p.l.c., BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2005 ( E n g l a n d ), 1 8. 36
3-1- 12001 2004 2 0 0 5 5 1 7 ( ( 1) (3-1- 1 ) 2004 3 122809 50 3 P EPPVC 3 3 2004 < > ( 2 0 0 5 ) 1 9 3 37
3 2003 721 1300 4 46 51 3 4 2003 ( 2 0 0 3 ) 3-1- 4 3 5 2003 < > ( 2 0 0 4 ) 2 3 1 38
2003 16960 ( 3-1- 1) 80 ( 3-1- 5) 2003 44 1997 2003 5.51% 10.76 3-1- 2 ( 3-1- 1) 3 6 2004 < > ( 2 0 0 5 ) 1 9 3 39
3-1- 2 BP p.l.c., B P S t a t i s t i c a l R e v i e w o f W o r l d E n e r g y J u n e 2 0 0 5 ( E n g l a n d ),5. 40
3-1- 11978 2003 2004 ( 2 0 0 4 ) 27 3-1- 22003 / 5.3 6.9 BGGroup 4 2.1 3.63 1.5 U n o c a l 3.4 2.2 3.1 3.34 M a r a t h o n 3.1 2.64 B u r l i n g t o n 1.4 2.87 Eni 1.85 3.11 A nache 1.71 1.91 Phillips 1.61 3.63 Anadarko 1.52 2.91 BP Amoco 1.36 3.61 Talisman 1.33 2.61 Texaco 1.19 2.36 Conoco 1.11 2.46 ExxonMobil 1 2.73 TotalFinaEIf 0.9 2.05 Shell 0.9 2.71 1.64 2.63 s m i t h b a r n e y 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 1 1 3-1- 31990 1997... / 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1.16 1.46 1.35 3.13 4.07 3.02 5.04 10.96 8.36 0.63 0.86 1.28 1.51 5.80 5.86 4.78 6.58 4.65 3.80 5.07 14.61 3.98 14.09 8.34 9.67 11.17 8.38 55.86 66.70 70.14 49.80 47.19 12.13 13.21 16.83 14.85 42.53 54.36 52.89 28.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.78 3.28 3.83 4.03 3.70 4.11 6.90 3.47 4.26 5.32 4.96 W T O : W o r k i n g P a r t y o n t h e A c c e s s i o n o f C h i n a, A N N E X 5 A, 1 O c t o b e r 2 0 0 1, W T / A C C / C H N / 4 9 ( O c t. 1, 2 0 0 1 ), a t h t t p : / / d o c s o n l i n e. w t o. o r g / i m r d / d i r e c t d o c. a s p? D D F D o c u m e n t s / t / W T / A C C / C H N 4 9. d o c 41
2002 6940 ( 3-1- 4) 1997 41.55% OPEC 25.66 3-1- 41997 2001 OPEC 2003/2004 ( 200 3 ) 4 1 2003 24255 ( 3-1- 6) 74.76 42
3-1- 51997 2003 % 6 0 5. 1 3 1998 ( 1 9 9 8 ) 253 2001 ( 2 0 0 1 ) 2 9 6 2002 ( 2 0 0 2 ) 3 8 2 2003 ( 2 0 0 3 ) 3 8 2 2004 ( 2 0 0 4 ) 3 7 3-1- 61997 2003 % 1998 ( 1 9 9 8 ) 266 2001 ( 2 0 0 1 ) 2 9 9 2002 ( 2 0 0 2 ) 3 8 6 2003 ( 2 0 0 3 ) 3 8 6 2004 ( 2 0 0 4 ) 378 43
( 3-2- 1) 3-2- 12003 2004 ( 2 0 0 4 ) 64-6 9 () 4 3 7 M a r k L a z e l l, S t i l l m u c h w o r k t o d o p o s t-wto, Asian Chemical News ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l. 1 1, I s s u e. 4 9 8 ( J u l y 1 1, 2 0 0 5 ) : 1 2. 44
() 2003 2464.88 ( 3-2- 2) 2002 32.33 19.53%( 3-2- 3) 31.5032.19%33.96 3-2- 2 % 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1 2 1 6. 8 8 1 0 0 %1 4 1 5. 8 1 1 0 0 %1 6 0 1. 2 7 1 0 0 % 1 8 6 2. 6 4 1 0 0 % 2 4 6 4. 8 8 1 0 0 % 3 4. 6 3 2. 8 % 4 2. 1 3 3. 0 % 5 9. 6 2 3. 7 % 43. 2 9 2. 3 % 8 2. 3 4 3. 3 % 6 4. 1 7 5. 3 % 7 5. 5 6 5. 3 % 6 7. 2 9 4. 2 % 7 4. 9 0 4. 0 % 8 3. 7 4 3. 4 % 5 5. 5 6 4. 6 % 6 6. 2 3 4. 7 % 5 5. 2 5 3. 5 % 6 1. 7 4 3. 3 % 8 2. 1 8 3. 3 % 8 7. 0 9 7. 2 % 9 9. 1 2 7. 0 % 118 7. 4 % 1 2 6. 2 5 6. 8 % 1 4 3. 0 2 5. 8 % 2 0 0. 8 1 1 6. 5 % 2 3 4. 3 7 1 6. 5 % 2 5 6. 4 1 6. 0 % 3 0 6. 02 1 6. 4 % 3 9 7. 8 1 6. 1 % 8 0. 1 4 6. 6 % 8 9. 3 0 6. 3 % 1 0 3. 6 8 6. 5 % 1 2 5. 2 6 6. 7 % 1 4 3. 7 3 5. 8 % 112.30 9. 2 % 1 3 1. 8 6 9. 3 % 1 8 2. 8 5 11.4% 2 2 3. 7 4 1 2. 0 % 3 3 6. 2 7 1 3. 6 % 5 2. 1 5 4. 3 % 5 9. 6 7 4. 2 % 5 9. 4 3 3. 7 % 6 6. 5 1 3. 6 % 8 0. 8 7 3. 3 % 5 7. 0 9 4. 7 % 5 8. 0 3 4. 1 % 6 2. 9 1 3. 9% 6 5. 9 6 3. 5 % 8 6. 7 4 3. 5 % 1 0 8. 3 5 8. 9 % 1 4 3. 6 7 1 0. 1 % 1 8 3. 0 7 11.4% 2 2 5. 1 8 1 2. 1 % 3 4 4. 1 1 4. 0 % 2001 ( 2 0 0 1 ) 2 1 3 2002 ( 2 0 0 2 ) 2 9 9 2003 ( 2 0 0 3 ) 2 9 8 2004 ( 2 0 0 4 ) 2 9 0 3-2- 3 % 1999/2000 2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 16.35% 13.10% 16.32% 32.33% 19.53% 21.66% 41.51% - 27.39% 90.21% 31.50% 17.75% - 10.94% 11.31% 11.80% 7.48% 19.20% - 16.58% 11.75% 33.11% 11.87% 13.81% 19.05% 6.99% 13.28% 13.28% 16.71% 9.40% 19.35% 29.99% 18.86% 11.43% 16.10% 20.81% 14.75% 15.77% 17.42% 38.67% 22.36% 50.29% 32.19% 14.42% - 0.40% 11.91% 21.59% 11.88% 1.65% 8.41% 4.85% 31.50% 11.60% 45
3-2 - 2 32.60% 27.42% 23.00% 52.81% 33.96% ( ( ) 2001 2003 2008 19.5% 22.02%( 3-2- 4 34.24% 26.45% 2003 29.2749.3234.4822.97%51.26 2003 52.0247.0830.5231.24%45.05 ( 2003 1652.08 ( 3-2- 9) 2002 13.49% 78.01 3 8 Ian Young, CHINA'S OLYMPIC HOPES, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l. 1 6 3, I s s u e. 3 2 / 3 3 ( A u g u s t 2 9, 2 0 0 1 ) : 1 5. I a n Y o u n g, B P G E T S C H I N A P E T C H EM OKAY, EXXONMOBILE UP NEXT, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l. 1 6 3, I s s u e. 3 2 / 3 3 ( A u g u s t 2 9, 2 0 0 1 ) : 1 5. 46
2003 ( 3 9 2003 420.11 ( 3-2- 10) 17.8% 320.11 209.08 101.82 86.83 1137.95 1650.5 68.94% 1997 2003 33.5% 25.5% 1997 13.9% 7.7% 200 () 50% 20 3 9 Lyn Tattum, Recovery is In the Air, 4 1. K e r r i W a l s h, S F O o f t h e Y e a r : R e t i r e d G e o r g i a G u l f C F O O f f e r s F u l l D i s c l o s u r e,2 2. 47
4 0 E GP T 9 () ( 3-2- 5)1985 2003 1995 1999 20% ( 3-2- 6 88% 51.5 15.5% 3-2- 5 % 2004/2005 ( 2 0 0 5 ) 3 7 5 4 0 T h e E c o n o m i s t I n t e l l i g e n c e U n i t,multinational companies in China:Winners and loser, 5 6. 48
3-2- 41997 2003 % 2001 2002 2003 833.5 34.24% 474.81 19.50% 1126.29 46.26% 785.58 29.10% 541.3 20.05% 1373.05 50.86% 801.52 26.45% 667.32 22.02% 1561.65 51.53% 24.14 19.77% 29.1 23.83% 68.86 56.40% 45.15 38.27% 33.99 28.81% 38.83 32.92% 15.42 13.74% 32.85 29.27% 63.96 56.99% 49.47 58.88% 2.91 3.46% 31.64 37.66% 53.55 60.41% 3.2 3.61% 31.89 35.98% 59.43 52.02% 4.02 3.52% 50.79 44.46% 110.4 64.73% 10.13 5.93% 50.08 29.34% 60.01 45.09% 13.13 9.87% 59.94 45.04% 61.94 47.08% 14.38 10.93% 55.25 41.99% 37.56 15.26% 122.55 49.78% 86.06 34.96% 18.15 6.79% 125.06 46.78% 124.11 46.43% 18.34 6.44% 140.42 49.32% 125.96 44.24% 58.79 21.00% 92.66 33.10% 128.47 45.90% 57.58 17.60% 100.88 30.83% 168.71 51.57% 68.92 19.25% 123.41 34.48% 165.61 46.27% 23.57 23.45% 23.56 23.44% 53.37 53.10% 30.52 25.81% 27.06 22.88% 60.69 51.31% 29.67 21.36% 31.91 22.97% 77.34 55.67% 40.74 27.63% 16.9 11.46% 89.8 60.91% 55.4 32.01% 19.08 11.03% 98.58 56.96% 68.28 30.52% 25.18 11.26% 130.25 58.22% 36.65 41.54% 1.22 1.38% 50.36 57.08% 33.77 36.63% 1.49 1.62% 56.93 61.75% 28.23 31.24% 2.01 2.22% 60.12 66.53% 32.5 47.25% 5.56 8.08% 30.72 44.66% 34.52 49.26% 6.02 8.59% 29.54 42.15% 32.74 45.05% 6.08 8.37% 33.85 46.58% 28.34 14.98% 106.05 56.04% 54.84 28.98% 22.07 7.35% 141.15 46.98% 137.22 45.67% 20.04 5.67% 181.15 51.26% 152.23 43.07% 2002 ( 2 0 0 2 ) 301 2003 ( 2 0 0 3 )2 9 9 2004 ( 2 0 0 4 ) 2 9 3 3-2- 61995 1999 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 476.8 420.3 460.3 450.1 382.9 2000 ( 2 0 0 1 ) 2 3 3 49
90% ( 3-2- 7) 2003 74%( 3-2- 8) 1990 2003 3-2- 7 % 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 41.19 13% 38.34 10% 43.27 9% 48.15 9% 46.2 8% 279.4 87% 337.4 90% 417.3 91% 460.4 90% 554.2 92% 320.2 100% 375.8 100% 460.9 100% 510 100% 602 100% 2000 ( 2 0 0 1 )2 3 4 3-2- 81990 2003 % P P 2004/2005 ( 200 5 ) 3 7 7 1990 2003 8% 33%( 3-2- 11) 61% 1995 11.6 2003 19.8 3-2- 12 50
3-2- 91997 2003 % 1998 ( 1 9 9 8 ) 271 2001 ( 2 0 0 1 )3 0 1 2002 ( 2 0 0 2 ) 3 9 0 2003 ( 2 0 0 3 )3 9 0 2004 ( 2 0 0 4 ) 3 8 2 3-2- 101997 2003 % 1998 ( 1 9 9 8 ) 272 2001 ( 2 0 0 1 )3 0 2 2002 ( 2 0 0 2 ) 3 9 1 2003 ( 2 0 0 3 )3 9 1 2004 ( 2 0 0 4 ) 3 8 3 51
3-2- 111990 2003 % 2004/2005 ( 2 0 0 5 ) 3 7 7 3-2- 121995 2003 Share of: 1995 2003 Total merchandise imports 6.3 12.5 Textiles 11.6 19.8 Clothing 14.9 16.9 Other consumer goods 25.5 36.7 Of which: Footwear 48.4 67.9 W T O, O x f o r d E c o n o m i c s a n d T h e S i g n a l G r o u p. T h e C h i n a E f f e c t : A s s e s s i n g t h e I m p a c t o n t h e U S E c o n o m y o f T r a d e a n d I n v e s t m e n t w i t h C h i n a, T h e C h i n a B u s i n e s s F o r u m, ( J a n u a r y, 2 0 0 6 ) : 9. () 1999 2004 2001 10% ( 3-2- 13) 2004 1424.54 ( 3-2- 14)2003 20.6%1991 2004 1998 8.1% 10% 1999 2004 15% 3-2- 131999 2004 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1910.27 2216.14 2321.05 2649.39 3208.25 3989.89 11.3% 16.0% 4.7% 14.1% 21.1% 24.4% 2004/2005 ( 2 0 0 5 ) 3 1 5 2003/2004 ( 2 0 0 4 ) 243 2002/2003 ( 2 0 0 3 )2 7 3 2001/2002 ( 2 0 0 2 )2 3 3 2000 ( 2 0 0 1 ) 123 52
3-2- 141991 2004 1 5. 5 %11.5% 11.4% 1 8. 1 %2 1. 7 %1 0. 0 %2 5. 6 %8. 1 %1 7. 7 %1 5. 6 %2 1. 2 %1 7. 8 %1 9. 2%2 0. 6 % 2004( 2 0 0 4 ) 39 2004/2005 ( 2 0 0 5 )3 5 6 1996 43 55 ( 3-2- 15) 2002 2004 557.81 377.81 180 65.7% 3-2- 151996 2004 % 2001 ( 2 0 0 1 ) 3 0 2 2002 ( 2 0 0 2 ) 3 9 1 2004/2005 ( 2 0 0 5 )3 5 7 2003/2004 ( 2 0 0 4 )2 8 5 4 1 N a t a s h a A l p e r o w i c z a n d W o o d A n d r e w, S h e l l F o c u s e s C h e m i c a l C a p e x i n A s i a..., Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l. 1 6 6, I s s u e. 1 7 ( M a y 1 9, 2 0 0 4 ) : 1 7. 53
2002/2003 ( 2 0 0 3 )3 2 5 2001/2002 ( 2 0 0 2 ) 136 1998/1999 ( 1 9 9 9 ) 3 5 2-3 6 0 () 2003 33%34% ( 3-2- 19) 2001 26.25% 2003 11.16 2003 100 BRS B RI R () 1997 ( 3-2- 16) 1997 2001 59.97 105.24 75% 4% 50 15 ( 3-2- 17) 54
1999 ( 3-2- 18) 2002 14% 3-2- 161997 2001 % 2003/2004 ( 2 00 3 ) 5 0 4-505 3-2- 171997 2001 % 2003/2004 ( 2 0 0 3 ) 5 0 6 3-2- 181997 2001 % 2003/2004 ( 2 0 0 3 ) 5 0 7-5 0 8 55
3-2- 192001 2003 % 2002( 2 0 0 2 ) 313 2003( ) 313 2004( ) 305 56
( ) 2003 134.83 ( 3-2- 20) 2002 1% 78.13% 1997 0.2%7.7% 2003 12.3%1 0. 9 % 118.5 10%15% () 2003 1.9 ( 3-2- 21) 63.82 1997 28.6% 2003 35.5% 2003 18.4% 21.4% 31.4% () 1997-2003 1997 3.2%0.2% 2003 1 1. 6 %12.3% 2.7%2.3% 21.9021.60%20.50 57
( 3-2- 1) ( ) 58
3-2- 201997 2003 % 1998 ( 1 9 9 8 ) 271 2001 ( 2 0 0 1 )3 0 1 2002 ( 2 0 0 2 ) 3 9 0 2003 ( 2 0 0 3 )3 9 0 2004 ( 2 0 0 4 ) 3 8 2 3-2- 1 59
3-2- 211997 2003 % 1998 ( 1 9 9 8 ) 272 2001 ( 2 0 0 1 )3 0 2 2002 ( 2 0 0 2 ) 3 9 1 2003 ( 2 0 0 3 )3 9 1 2004 ( 2 0 0 4 ) 3 8 3 60
( ) ( ) 1998 ( C N P C )( 16 (SINOPEC 5 10 61
11 4 2 C N P C 4 3 SINOPEC P E 20 P E 20 P E 171920 (4-1- 1) SINOPEC P E (4-1- 2 SINOPEC C N P C 4-1- 1 80~90% SINOPEC 60% 4-1- 2 2000 L D P E PVC SME 4-1- 12002 C N P C Sinopec ( ) S i n o p e c C N P C O t h e r s Ethylene 1900 61% 32% 7% Prolypropylene 1450 68% 21% 11% H D P E 570 63% 32% 5% L D P E 678 63% 32% 5% Polyvinyl chloride 230 8% 1% 91% Polystyrene 151 43% 7% 50% Polyester Fiber Filament 356 17% 3% 50% Polyester Fiber Staple 545 17% 3% 50% PP Fiber 17 10% 5% 85% Synthetic Rubber (SBR) 363-30% 7% B a l a j i S i n g h a n d I r m a T a n, E y e o n C h i n a : T h e r i s e o f p e t r o c h e m i c a l s, Chemical Market Reporter ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l. 2 6 2, I s s u e. 2 ( J u l y 1 5, 2 0 0 2 ) : 2 6. 4 2 ( 2 0 0 1 4 3 62
4-1- 1 D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,155. 4-1- 2 P E D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,155.. 63
4-1- 22000 448.3 151.5 731.9 515 96 173.6 179 54 2349.3 19 5 17 11 4 4 3 1 64 23.59 30.3 43.05 46.82 24 43.4 59.67 54 36.71 SM 82 115 296.3 229.5 40 44 31.5 30 868.3 14 5 12 9 2 2 1 1 46 5.86 23 24.69 25.5 20 22 31.5 30 18.88 EG 87.6 91 102.6 88.5 0 0 12.2 22 403.9 10 4 4 3 0 0 1 1 23 8.76 22.75 25.65 29.5 - - 12.2 22 17.56 LDPE/EVA 111.8 44 218.3 105.4 20 21.5 25 0 546 12 3 17 10 1 3 2 0 48 9.32 14.67 12.84 10.54 20 7.17 12.5-11.38 L L D P E 91.5 24 0 55.2 20 30 15-235.7 9 1 0 4 1 1 1 0 17 10.17 24-13.8 20 30 15-13.86 H D P E / L L D P E 121.4 54 132.7 203.2 30 89.4 56 79 765.7 10 3 13 10 2 6 2 3 49 12.14 18 10.21 20.32 15 14.9 28 26.33 15.63 PVC 248.2 175.6 256.9 116.5 25.5 86 2.8 62 970.5 32 6 12 4 3 8 1 5 71 7.76 29.27 21.41 29.13 7.5 10.75 2.8 12.4 13.67 ( 2 0 0 1 64
(4-1- 1 12 12 13 ( 4-1- 3) 65
4-1- 3 66
2003 850 2009 1790 13.2% 4 4 5 4-2- 1 ( E x x o n- Mobile) 4 5 ( E x x o n ) (4-2- 2) 67% ( L D P EH D P E SME G PVC ) 6 1 % 4 6 2005 E x x o n 4 7 2000 (4-2- 3) 2000 23.5 60 80 3 ~ 4 4 4 P e c k H w e e S i m a n d R o b e r t W e s t e r v e l t, P e t r o c h e m i c a l s, :21. 4 5 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 2003/2004 ( 2 0 0 3 ) 4 5 7 4 6 A n d r e w W o o d, N o S i g n s o f a n I n v e s t m e n t S l o w d o w n, Chemical Week (New York ), vol.166, I s s u e. 3 1 ( S e p t e m b e r 2 2, 2 0 0 4 ) : 4 5. 4 7 T u a z o n -B o e r R i t z e l, T h e 1 1 t h A n n u a l C h i n a C h e m i c a l I n d u s t r y C o n f e r e n c e, Chemical Week (New Y o r k ), v o l. 1 6 7, I s s u e. 2 6 ( A u g u s t 1 0, 2 0 0 5 ) : 4 5. 67
4-2- 1 (BASF) (BP) / ( ) /2005 60 /2005 90 (Shell) /2005 80 (E x x o n- Mobile) /2008( ) 80 K a n g W u a n d L i j u a n W a n g, C h i n a ' s e t h y l e n e s e c t o r c o n t i n u e s t o e x p a n d, Oil & Gas Journal ( T u l s a ), v o l. 1 0 2, I s s u e. 1 ( J a n u a r y 5, 2 0 0 4 ) : 4 6. ( 2 0 0 2 5 0 4-2- 22002 2008 310 67% 2 0 0 6 3 4-2- 32000 23.5 30.3 43.0 46.8 24 43 59.6 54 36.7 2 0 0 1 ( 41 365 (S h e l 13 4-2- 1) 75 12 4 8 M a l i n i H a r i h a r a n, S i n o p e c a n d B A S F p l a n f o r m o r e i n N a n j i n g, Asian Chemical News (New York ), v o l. 1 1, I s s u e. 5 0 9 ( O c t o b e r 3, 2 0 0 5 ) : 1 9. 4 9 A n d r e w W o o d, s h e l l t i g h t e n i n g i t s C h e m i c a l F o c u s,2 1. 68
4-2- 2) ( ) 5 0 5 0 A n d r e w W o o d a n d A r n o l d P e a r l m a n, S h e l l P u t s D o w n R o o t s i n C h i n a,39. 69
4-2- 1 70
4-2- 2 71
72
W T O --- WTO (T RIMS) TRIPS) TRIPS TRIMS P S (PVC TRIMS TRIPS 73
2001 WTO WTO 5 1 2004 WTO WTO 2004 2005 2005 5 2 W TO WTO 5 3 5 4 5 1 M a r k L a z e l l, S t i l l m u c h w o r k t o d o p o s t-wto,1 2. 5 2 U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e. 2 0 0 5 R e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s o n C h i n a s W T O C o m p l i a n c e, U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e, D e c e m b e r, 2 0 0 5. 5 3 W T O : W o r k i n g P a r t y o n t h e A c c e s s i o n o f C h i n a,p a r a. 46, 1 O c t o b e r 2 0 0 1, W T / L / 4 3 2 ( N o v. 2 3, 2 0 0 1 ), a t h t t p : / / d o c s o n l i n e. w t o. o r g / D D F D o c u m e n t s / t / W T / L / 4 3 2. d o c Ian Young, New La w s S h o u l d S p e e d P r o j e c t A p p r o v a l s, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l. 1 6 7, I s s u e. 2 9 ( A u g u s t 2 4, 2 0 0 6 ) : 3 0. 5 4 U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e. 2 0 0 5 R e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s o n C h i n a s W T O C o m p l i a n c e, U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e, D e c e m b e r, 2 0 0 5. 74
( T R I M S ) WTO TRIMS TRIMS 5 5 1992 WTO < > 5 6 WTO WTO 2005 5 7 5 5 I b i d.,. WTO: Wo r k i n g P a r t y o n t h e A c c e s s i o n o f C h i n a,p a r a. 4 9, 1 O c t o b e r 2 0 0 1, W T / L / 4 3 2 ( N o v. 2 3, 2 0 0 1 ), a t h t t p : / / d o c s o n l i n e. w t o. o r g / D D F D o c u m e n t s / t / W T / L / 4 3 2. d o c 5 6 2 0 1 ( 2 0 0 4 1 2 ) 4 1 5 7 U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e. 2 0 0 5 R e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s o n C h i n a s W T O C o m p l i a n c e, U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e, D e c e m b e r, 2 0 0 5. 75
TRIPS (TRIPS) 83% (5-1- 1) ( 5-1- 2) 5 8 TRIPS 5 2005 9 TRIPS 6 0 1999 6 1 E I U 6 2 5-1- 1 % 83% 57% 68% 52% ( ) 2001~2002 ( 2 0 0 2 ) 1 4 1 5 8 ( 2 0 0 0 2 9 5 9 U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e. 2 0 0 5 R e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s o n C h i n a s W T O C o m p l i a n c e, U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e, D e c e m b e r, 2 0 0 5. 6 0 I b i d., 6 1 M a r k L a z e l l, S t i l l m u c h w o r k t o d o p o s t-wto,1 2. 6 2 T h e E c o n o m i s t I n t e l l i g e n c e U n i t,multinational companies in China:Winners and loser,36. 76
5-1- 2 () : (%) 150 90 300 80 100 94 3600 97-98 " " ( 2 0 0 0 2 9 2004 4 2004 7 1 6 6 3 WTO 6 4 WTO 2004 4 2004 12 11 6 5 6 3 U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e. 2 0 0 5 R e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s o n C h i n a s W T O C o m p l i a n c e, U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e, D e c e m b e r, 2 0 0 5. 6 4 ( ) 2001~2002 ( 2 0 0 2 ) 1 4 3 6 5 U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e. 2 0 0 5 R e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s o n C h i n a s W T O C o m p l i a n c e, U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e, D e c e m b e r, 2 0 0 5. 77
6 6 2005 5 10 60 6 7 WTO WTO (CTHA) 2002 2008 ( 14) 2008 12%15% 6.5 1. 5 ~ 4 66 6 6 I b i d., 6 7 ( )2 0 0 5 5 1 2 C 7 ( )2 0 0 5 6 7 A 6 78
2005 6 9 15 WTO 7 0 WTO 1998 W T 7 1 5-1- 3 2005 (Sinopec) 2005 2005 12 7 68 2 1997 10 6 8 ( ) 2001~2002 1 4 2-1 4 3T i m G l o g a n,chemicals in China (London:Urch Publis h i n g L t d, 2 0 0 0 ), 1 3. 6 9 U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e. 2 0 0 5 R e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s o n C h i n a s W T O C o m p l i a n c e, U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e, D e c e m b e r, 2 0 0 5. 7 0 ( ) 2 0 0 1 ~ 2 0 0 2 ) 143 7 1 U n i t e d S t a t e s T r a d e R e p r e s e n t a t i v e, 2 0 0 5 R e p o r t t o C o n g r e s s o n C h i n a s W T O C o m p l i a n c e, U S T R, ( D e c e m b e r 1 1, 2 0 0 3 )39. 7 2 ( )2 0 0 6 1 2 3 A 6 79
5-1- 3 / 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1.16 1.46 1.35 3.13 4.07 3.02 5.04 10.96 8.36 0.63 0.86 1.28 1.51 5.80 5.86 4.78 6.58 4.65 3.80 5.07 14.61 3.98 14.09 8.34 9.67 11.17 8.38 55.86 66.70 70.14 49.80 47.19 12.13 13.21 16.83 14.85 42.53 54.36 52.89 28.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.78 3.28 3.83 4.03 3.70 4.11 6.90 3.47 4.26 5.32 4.96 1.90 2.39 2.07 3.09 2.65 3.38 6.97 16.41 15.36 6.65 7.88 6.31 9.30 3.99 1.52 2.63 6.82 2.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.00 8.62 9.26 10.25 8.83 116.36 142.75 152.35 103.00 96.69 46.34 55.92 91.12 71.02 1.65 1.94 1.99 1.53 1.24 0.42 1.28 4.62 3.67 118.01 144.69 154.34 104.53 97.93 46.76 57.2 95.74 74.69 W T O : W o r k i n g P a r t y o n t h e A c c e s s i o n o f C h i n a, A N N E X 5 A, 1 O c t o b e r 2 0 0 1, W T / A C C / C H N / 4 9 ( O c t. 1, 2 0 0 1 ), a t h t t p : / / d o c s o n l i n e. w t o. o r g / i m r d / d i r e c t d o c. a s p? D D F D o c u m e n t s / t / W T / A C C / C H N 4 9. d o c 7 WTO 3 ( 2-3- 1) ( 6 7 4 1990 2000 235 ( 5-2- 1) 2003 82( 5-2- 3) 14% 7 3 I a n Y o u n g, N o M o r e C h i n e s e P e t c h e m J V ' s?, Chemical Week (New York ), vol.165, I s s u e. 3 3 ( S e p t e m b e r 2 4, 2 0 0 3 ) : 7. I a n Y o u n g, C i b a B u i l d i n g o n F i r m F o u n d a t i o n s, Chemical Week (New Y o r k ), v o l. 1 6 6, I s s u e. 2 5 ( A u g u s t 4, 2 0 0 4 ) : 1 6. N a t a s h a A l p e r o w i c z, A t o f i n a N e g o t i a t e s M a j o r P e t c h e m s JV in China, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l. 1 6 5, I s s u e. 3 7 ( O c t o b e r 1 5, 2 0 0 3 ) : 1 7. 7 4 A n d r e w W o o d, T a k e a H a r d L o o k a t C h i n a, Chemical Week (New York ), vol.166, I s s u e. 2 9 ( S e p t e m b e r 8, 2 0 0 4 ) : 3. 80
66% 2002 1991.81 24.7%( 5-2- 2) 5-2- 11990 2000 2001/2002 ( 2 0 0 1 ) 2 3 9 1997/1998 ( 1 9 9 7 ) 2 0 9 5-2- 22002 % 2003/2004 ( 2 0 0 3 ) 3 4 4 81
5-2- 3 2003 ( ) ( )% 438.22 412.75 403.41 92% 339.99 82% 19.58 4% 5% 48.97 12% 14% 5.32 1% 1% 27% 15.84 4% 5% 32% 3.57 1% 1% 18% 1.35 0% 0% 3% 1.52 0% 0% 8% 2.6 1% 1% 5% 2.86 1% 1% 15% 1.7 0% 1% 3% 0.96 0% 0% 5% 0.7 0% 0% 1% 0.78 0% 0% 4% 1.75 0% 1% 4% 1.16 0% 0% 6% 16.49 4% 5% 34% 9.33 2% 2% 48% 2.86 1% 1% 6% 2.44 1% 1% 12% 5.64 1% 2% 12% 2004 ( 2004 ) 740-741 82
2002 57.5%( 5-2- 4) 1996 2002 94.6% 122.1%127.6%44.8%( 5-2- 5) 1996 15.94% 2002 10.82% 5-2- 4... % 18.06% 15.21% 13.73% 15.94% 18.71% 14.73% 16.01% 13.98% 18.44% 14.88% 17.54% 14.83% 19.40% 14.67% 15.41% 14.23% 19.57% 16.73% 17.49% 11.54% 16.95% 16.30% 15.62% 10.08% 16.47% 15.84% 14.64% 10.82% 1997/1998 ( 1 9 9 7 ) 2 1 2 1998/1999 ( 1 9 9 8 ) 2 4 0-24 2000/2001 ( 2 0 0 0 ) 2 8 1-2 8 5 2001/2002 ( 2 0 0 1 )3 4 5-3 5 0 2002/2003 ( 2 0 0 2 ) 310-3 1 5 2003/2004 ( 2 0 0 3 ) 9 83
5-2- 5... % 1996/1997 8.24% 1.12% 21.82% - 8.36% 1997/1998 2.09% 4.68% 13.51% 9.94% 1998/1999 25.99% 18.08% 5.21% 14.88% 1999/2000 23.52% 39.62% 38.97% - 0.73% 2000/2001-3.92% 8.10% - 0.91% - 3.09% 2001/2002 17.78% 17.75% 13.60% 30.05% 1996/2002 94.61% 122.14% 127.60% 44.81% 5-2 - 4 ( 1. (PP) 1995 P P 126 107 2004 P P 451 291 ( 5-2- 6) 7 5 3.5 3 ( / )0.84 0.64 5-2- 15-2- 2 7 5 D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,360-3 6 2. 7 6 3 8 7 7 2003. 3-3- 136 84
5-2- 61995 2003 85
5-2- 1 :5-2 - 6 2. (PS) 5-2- 2 :5-2 - 6 P S 1995 PS+EPS 30 106 2004 P S + E P S 310 156 86
( 5-2- 7) 7 8 ( / )3.5 0.5 5-2- 35-2- 4 5-2- 71995 2003 7 8 D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,368-3 6 9. 87
5-2- 31995 P S :5-2 - 7 5-2- 42004 P S :5-2 - 7 3.PVC PVC 1995 PVC 146 57 88
(5-2- 8) ( / )0.39 2004 PVC 748 210 ( / )0.28 7 9 PVC P V 5-2- 55-2- 6 5-2- 81995 2003 7 9 D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,363-3 6 7. 89
5-2- 51995 P VC :5-2 - 8 5-2- 62004 PVC :5-2 - 8 4.ABS 90
1995 ABS 8.3 80 ( 5-2- 9) 2004 8 ABS 163 196 0 ( / )9.6 1.2 5-2- 75-2- 8 5-2- 91995 2003 ABS 8 0 D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,370. 91
5-2- 71995 ABS :5-2 - 9 5-2- 82004 ABS :5-2 - 9 4. 1995 L D P E 47 L L D P E 50 92
97 140 2004 LDPE 114 L L D P E 155 269 134 ( 5-2- 10) 8 1 ( / )1.44 0.5 5-2- 95-2- 10 5-2- 101995 2003 LDPE L L D P E 8 1 D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,357-3 5 8. 8 2 47 93
5-2- 91995 LDPE L L D P E :5-2 -1 0 5-2- 102004 LDPE L L D P E :5-2- 10 94
5. ( H D P E ) H D P E 1995 H D P E 65 42 2004 H D P E 149 231 ( 5-2- 11) 8 3 ( / )0.64 1.55 5-2- 115-2- 12 5-2- 111995 2003 HDPE 8 3 D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,359. 95
5-2- 111995 HDPE :5-2 -1 1 ( 1. (POM) P O M 96
8 4 1995 P O M 0.3 2.6 (5-2- 12) 2004 P O M 12 18 ( / )8.6 1. 5-2- 135-2- 14 5-2- 122004 HDPE :5-2 -1 1 5-2- 121995 2003 P O M 8 4 D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,398. 97
5-2- 131995 P O M :5-2 -1 2 2. ( P C ) P C 1995 P C 0.5 4.1 (5-2- 13) 2004 P C 13.3 98
8 72.9 5 ( / )8.2 5.4 5-2- 15 5-2- 16 5-2- 142004 P O M :5-2 -1 2 5-2- 131995 2003 PC 8 5 D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004,394. 99
5-2- 151995 PC :5-2 -1 3 1 0 0
5-2- 162004 PC :5-2 -1 3 1 0 1
1 0 2
1 0 3 WTO WTO WTO TRIMTRIPS TRIMS TRIPS 2000 4 ~ 5
8 7 1978 1959 1976 8 8 8 6 R i c h a r d M. A u t y, I n d u s t r i a l P o l i c y R e f o r m i n C h i n a : S t r u c t u r a l a n d R e g i o n a l I m b a l a n c e s, Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, v o l. 1 7, n o. 4 ( 1 9 9 2 ) : 4 8 1. 8 7 I b i d., 4 8 3-4844 8 7. 8 8 I b i d., 4 8 4. 8 9 I b i d.,4 85. 5 ( 1 9 9 7 5 ) 2 5 9 0 Ri c h a r d M. A u t y, I n d u s t r i a l P o l i c y R e f o r m i n C h i n a : S t r u c t u r a l a n d R e g i o n a l I m b a l a n c e s, 49 1. 2 5 1 0 4
1950 1 9 7 0 1980 9 4 9 8 9 9 9 1 R i c h a r d M. A u t y, I n d u s t r i a l P o l i c y R e f o r m i n C h i n a : S t r u c t u r a l a n d R e g i o n a l I m b a l a n c e s, 4874 9 2. : 8 4 ( 2 0 0 2 1 1 ) 8 9 2 ( 1 9 9 5 1 ) 60 9 3 ( 1 9 9 5 1 ) 1 6 2 9 4 R i c h a r d M. A u t y, I n d u s t r i a l P o l i c y R e f o r m i n C h i n a : S t r u c t u r a l a n d R e g i o n a l I m b a l a n c e s, 484. 9 5 1 ( 2 0 0 5 1 ) 5 4 9 6 4 8 ( 2 0 0 2 6 ) 2 5 9 7 2 ( 2 0 0 1 2 ) 6 5 1 ( 2 0 0 1 7 ) 10 9 8 R i c h a r d M. A u t y, I n d u s t r i a l P o l i c y R e f o r m i n C h i n a : S t r u c t u r a l a n d R e g i o n a l I m b a l a n c e s, 48 7. 9 9 I b i d.,4 8 4. 1 0 5
1 0 0 1 0 1 60 1 0 2 1 0 3 18 19 ( 1 0 4 Solo w 1909 1949 GNP 1 0 87.5% 12.5% 5 K uzne ts 1955 1 0 0 I b i d., 4 8 4. 1 0 1 5 (1999 5 ) 55R i c h a r d M. A u t y, I n d u s t r i a l P o l i c y R e f o r m i n C h i n a : S t r u c t u r a l a n d R e g i o n a l I m b a l a n c e s, 491. 1 0 2 5 5 1 0 3 R i c h a r d M. A u t y, I n d u s t r i a l P o l i c y R e f o r m i n C h i n a : S t r u c t u r a l a n d R e g i o n a l I m b a l a n c e s, 49 2. 1 0 4 4 ( 2 0 0 5 4 ) 1 0 1 0 5 Robert M. Solow, T e c h n i c a l C h a n g e a n d t h e A g g r e g a t e P r o d u c t i o n F u n c t i o n, Review of Economics and Statistics, v o l. 3 9, i s s u e 3 ( 1957 320. 1 0 6
1 0 6 1 0 7 1 0 8 1995 90 1 2 0 % ( ) 1 0 9 1 0 6 S i m o n K u z n e t s,modern Economic Growth Rate, Structre, and Spread (New HavenYale University Press, 1966),81. 1 0 7 5 3 1 0 8? 3 ( 2 0 0 5 3 ) 2 1 1 0 9 2 4 1 0 7
1 1 0 80 2001 2004 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 0 2 ( 2 0 0 5 2 ) 1 4 1 1 1 4 ( 2 0 0 5 4 ) 16 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 ( 2 0 0 5 1 ) 4 8 4 ( 2 0 0 5 4 ) 5 1-5 2 Z 1 ( 2 0 0 5 1 ) 22 1 0 8
(Non- tradable 1 1 6 6-1- 1 1 1 4!? ( )1 9 8 9 8 2 8 15 ( )1 9 8 9 1 0 4 1 1 1 1 5 ( )1 9 9 0 6 1 3 6 1 1 6 ( 1 9 9 6 ) 1 7 5 1 1 7 287 ( )1 9 9 0 1 1 0 1 5 1 0 9
6-1- 12000 A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q A 1.24 0.03 0.59 0.23 0.13 0.03 0.03 0.12 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.15 0.05 0.01 0.6 1.07 B 0.05 1.13 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.29 0.68 0.16 0.9 0.25 0.12 0.17 0.12 0.06 008 0.03 0.07 1.33 C 0.09 0.01 1.17 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.12 0.04 0.01 0.03 0.65 D 0.03 0.04 0.03 1.78 0.19 0.03 0.03 0.13 0.08 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.02 0.06 1.02 E 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.05 1.31 0.04 0.04 0.07 0.14 0.12 0.08 0.09 0.05 0.08 0.09 5 0.10 0.9 F 0.05 0.13 0.06 0.07 0.12 1.13 0.12 0.21 0.17 0.22 0.13 0.11 0.08 0.06 0.07 0.02 0.08 1.05 G 0.05 0.09 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.21 1.15 0.13 0.13 0.17 0.10 0.17 0.17 0.07 0.09 0.03 0.07 1.03 H 0.23 0.15 0.19 033 0.28 0.11 0.14 1.71 0.25 01 0.33 0.19 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.05 0.21 1.75 I 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 1.11 0.04 0.04 0.19 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.60 J 0.04 0.12 0.05 0.05 0.13 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.18 1.59 0.41 0.33 0.11 0.08 0.10 0.04 0.09 1.33 K 0.24 0.10 0.14 0.19 0.33 0.22 0.20 0.25 0.29 1.79 0.34 0.37 0.24 0.29 0.11 0.23 2.00 L 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01.01 0.03 0.01 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.45 M 0.04 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.11 0.12 0.09 0.14 1.08 0.07 0.10 0.05 0.13 0.89 N 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.15 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.13 0.15 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.07 1.15 0.10 0.04 0.11 1.06 O 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.11 1.12 0.10 0.09 0.75 P 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.07 0.07 1.06 0.04 0.66 Q 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 1.04 0.47 0.77 0.81 0.96 1.17 1.07 0.96 1.02 1.19 1.10 1.24 1.28 1.17 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.61 0.91 A :B : C : D : E F : G : H : I : J K : L M : N : O : P Q : http://www.iochina.org.cn/input/io200017.xls 1 1 0
Kuznets 1 2 0 1500 1 2 1 6-2- 1 1990 1995 10%6% ( 1 2 ) 2 6-2- 2 56% 6-2- 3 40% 1 1 8 8 7 1 1 9 ( )2 0 0 6 4 3 A 7 1 2 0 1 0S i m o n K u z n e t s, M o d e r n E c o n o m i c G r o w t hrate, S t r u c t r e, a n d S p r e a d, 8 1. 1 2 1 2 ( 2 0 0 3 2 ) 2 1 1 2 2 1 ( 2 0 0 1 1 ) 1 1 2 5 111
1 2 3 1 2 4 82% 75 1 2 5 1 2 8 60 1 2 3 6 ; 1 0 1 2 4 3 ( 2 0 0 1 3 ) 8 4 1 2 5 4 ( 1 9 9 9 ) 7 7 1 2 6 1 4 3 ( 2 0 0 1 3 ) 85 : 8 1 2 7 50-51 1 2 8 : 8 1 2 9 1 ( 2 0 0 4 1 ) 3 9 1 3 0 6 1 3 1 J o h n R i c h a r d s o n,c h i n a p e a k s e a s o n s e t t o f a l l f l a t,a s i a n C h e m i c a l N e w s ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l. 1 1, I s s u e. 5 0 3 ( A u g u s t 1 5, 2 0 05 ) : 9. 14 1 3 2 : 3 ( 2 0 0 3 3 ) 1 0 2 2 ( 2 0 0 2 6 ) 2 7 1 1 2
6-2- 11979 1995 GDP ( ) G e o r g i n a W i l d e,china to 2010-The pace of reform ( U n i t e d K i n g d o mt h e E c o n o m i s t I n t e l l i g e n c e U n i t, 1 9 9 8 ), 3 5. 6-2- 22002 18533 1170 148 9185 1882 2175 33093 56% 4% 0% 28% 6% 7% 100% 6-2- 32002 18533 100% 2639 14% 4520 24% 172 1% 407 2% 74 0% 333 2% 1 3 3 7% 5 9 8 4 1 3 3 6 ( 2 0 0 2 6 ) 6 1 1 3
1 3 5 1998 2001 2550 500 1 3 8 2000 49% 1 3 9 1 4 0 ( ) 1 4 1 1 3 4 5 0 21 : 3 5 (2002 1 0 ) 18 1 3 5 : 1 0 1 3 6 1 3 7 2 1 2 2 ( 2 0 0 2 6 ) 2 7 1 3 8 7 1 3 9 I b i d., 1 4 0 5 4I a n Y o u n g, R i d i n g A s i a ' s I n d u s t r y U p c y c l e,2 8. 1 4 1 1 1 4
1 4 2 1 4 3 80 1 4 4 90 1 4 5 24 1 4 2 2 1 ( 2 0 0 1 3 ) 7-9 1 4 3 16 1 4 4 43 1 4 5 P e c k H w e e S i m a n d R o b e r t W e s t e r v e l t, P e t r o c h e m i c a l s, 2 1. 2 2 1 4 6 4 (2004 4 ) 4 1 4 7 7 2 4 1 4 8 3 ( 2 0 0 1 ) 7 0 43 1 4 9 163 1 5 0 7 0 1 1 5
1 5 5 9 1 5 1 A n d r e w W o o d a n d A r n o l d P e a r l m a n, S h e l l P u t s D o w n R o o t s i n C h i n a,39. 7; 1 0 : 8 1 5 2 7 1 5 3 6 9 1 5 4 9M a r k L a z e l l, S t i l l m u c h w o r k t o d o p o s t -WTO,1 2. 1 5 5 : 40 1 1 6
1 5 6 60 90 18 1 6 1 6-3- 2 1 5 6 25 1 5 7 7 7 1 5 8 25 1 5 9 2 2 5 0 2 0 2 1 0 3 4 5 : 142 1 6 0 D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c.,petrochemical Industry in China 2004 ( J a p a n : D i a R e s e a r c h M a r t e c h I n c., 2 0 0 3 ), 4 0 0. 1 6 1 : 3 1 1 7
> 80 1 6 3 1 6 2 N a t a s h a A l p e r o w i c z,, C h i n a B u i l d s U p C o n t r a c t o r s ' H o p e s,23.i a n Y o u n g, N o M o r e C h i n e s e P e t c h e m J V ' s?, Chemical Week ( N e w Y o r k ), v o l. 1 6 5, I s s u e. 3 3 ( Se p t e m b e r 2 4, 2 0 0 3 ) : 7. 1 6 3 2 0 0 5 1 2 1 6 4 ( )2 0 0 6 2 5 A 8 1 6 5 A n d r e w W o o d, T h e T i g e r s v s. t h e D r a g o n, C h e m i c a l W e e k, v o l. 1 6 7, I s s u e 8 ( 2 0 0 5 ) : 5. 1 6 6 6 ( 2 0 0 2 6 ) 3 8 1 1 8
6-3- 12000 448.3 151.5 731.9 515 96 173.6 179 54 2349.3 19 5 17 11 4 4 3 1 64 23.59 30.3 43.05 46.82 24 43.4 59.67 54 36.71 SM 82 115 296.3 229.5 40 44 31.5 30 868.3 14 5 12 9 2 2 1 1 46 5.86 23 24.69 25.5 20 22 31.5 30 18.88 EG 87.6 91 102.6 88.5 0 0 12.2 22 403.9 10 4 4 3 0 0 1 1 23 8.76 22.75 25.65 29.5 - - 12.2 22 17.56 LDPE/EVA 111.8 44 218.3 105.4 20 21.5 25 0 546 12 3 17 10 1 3 2 0 48 9.32 14.67 12.84 10.54 20 7.17 12.5-11.38 L L D P E 91.5 24 0 55.2 20 30 15-235.7 9 1 0 4 1 1 1 0 17 10.17 24-13.8 20 30 15-13.86 H D P E / L L D P E 121.4 54 132.7 203.2 30 89.4 56 79 765.7 10 3 13 10 2 6 2 3 49 12.14 18 10.21 20.32 15 14.9 28 26.33 15.63 PVC 248.2 175.6 256.9 116.5 25.5 86 2.8 62 970.5 32 6 12 4 3 8 1 5 71 7.76 29.27 21.41 29.13 7.5 10.75 2.8 12.4 13.67 ( 2 0 0 1 1 1 9
6-3- 22011... 1 6 7 ( ) 2 0 0 6 3 1 6 1 6 8 2 0 0 6 3 1 6 1 2 0
1 2 1
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12 3
1 2 4
1 2 5
1 2 6
1 2 7
37 37 2. 3. 4. 5. 1 2 8
1 2 9
1 3 0
1 1956 1956 1956 1960s 1965 1973 1974 1976 1978 1980s 1982 1983 1 3 1
( 1 9 8 7 ) 1 1-1 1 9 9 2 6 1 9 9 3 6 1 9-2 4 1 9 9 4 7 1 9 9 5 6 22-37 1 9 9 2 7 1 9 9 3 6 8-2 1 2 ( 1 9 8 6 ) 5-1 1 1 3 2
3 ( 2 0 0 3 8 ) 225-226 WTO 1 3 3
4 Industry Sector C l a s s i f i c a t i o n Industrial inorganics Alkalies and chlorine N o n p e t r o c h e m i c a l Industrial gases Nonpetroche m i c a l Inorganic pigments N o n p e t r o c h e m i c a l Plastics materials, synthetics Plastic materials and resins P e t r o c h e m i c a l Synthetic rubber P e t r o c h e m i c a l Cellulosic man- made fibers P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Organic fibers P e t r o c h e m i c a l Drugs Biological products P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Medicinals and botanicals P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Pharmaceutical preparations P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Soaps, cleaners, toilet goods Soap and other detergents P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Polishes P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Surface active agents P e t r o c h e m i c a l Toilet preparations P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Paints and allied products P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Industrial organics Gum and wood N o n p e t r o c h e m i c a l C y c l i c c r u d e s a nd intermediates P e t r o c h e m i c a l Industrial organics P e t r o c h e m i c a l Agricultural chemicals Nitrogenous fertilizers P e t r o c h e m i c a l Phosphate fertilizers P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Fertilizers- mixing P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Pesticides Petro c h e m i c a l- dependent Miscellaneous Adhesives and sealants P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Explosives P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Printing ink P e t r o c h e m i c a l- dependent Carbon black P e t r o c h e m i c a l Chemical preparations, not elsewhere classified N onpetrochemical H. P e t e r G r a y a n d I n g o W a l t e r,t h e P e t r o c h e m i c a l I n d u s t r y,i n I n v e s t m e n t i n c e n t i v e s a n d p e r f o r m a n c e r e q u i r e m e n t s, e d., b y G u i s i n g e r, S t e p h e n E. ( N e w Y o r 1 3 4
1 ( 1 3 ( 1 9 9 6 6 ) 3 8 1 3 5
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5 14 6 2003 20 ( ) 86 48 24 2004 16 6 2003 22 40 40 2006 20 72 44 16 2006 48 17 2003 40 25 2002 18 18 22 2006 20 / BASF 60 2005 / BP 90 2005 / SHELL 80 2006 / EXXON 80 2007 2 0 0 6 3 6 N P C, # 6 52 2003 N P C, # 7 1,10 2005 CAMEL OLEFIN 11 2002 QATRA / 50 2003 PHILLIPS Q G P C 20 2004 Q - CHEM 1,30 2007 1 3 7
JUPC 1,00 2004 CHEVRON 20 2007 U A E ADNOC 60 2002 8,38 2002 4,82 2 0 0 6 3 7 PVC.PVC P U PVC PVC P C PVC P U PVC PVC. P U PVC PVC. PVC. P U PMMA FRP PMMA.PU PVC.PMMA PVC PVC P E P E FRP P U P U 1 3 8
8 GDP GDP J a m e s M. K e n d e l l, M e a s u r e s o f O i l I m p o r t D e p e n d e n c e, J u l y, 1 9 9 8, E I A, w w w. e i a. d o e. g o v / o i a f / a r c h i v e / i s s u e s 9 8 / o i m p o r t. h t m l. 4 2002/2003 ( 200 2 ) 2 7 7 1 3 9
3 BP p.l.c., B P S t a t i s t i c a l R e v i e w o f W o r l d E n e r g y J u n e 2005 ( E n g l a n d ), 1 9. 1 4 0
91978 1989 ( ) 1978 1987 1989 1 9.58 1 34.07 1 35.03 2 6.16 2 20.03 2 26.99 3 5.9 4 0.58 5 3.09 6 2.95 3 13.47 3 16 4 13.36 4 15.6 5 7.6 5 13.52 6 7.45 6 7.58 ( 1 9 9 2 ) 11 5 SINOPEC B a l a j i S i n g h a n d I r m a T a n, E y e o n C h i n a : T h e r i s e o f p e t r o c h e m i c a l s, Chemical Market Reporter (New York ), vol.262, I s s u e. 2 ( J u l y 1 5, 2 0 0 2 ) : 2 6. 141
10 274.15 2,070 1.18% 10.29% 13,295 11,626 14.36% 407.4 398.2 2.31% : w w w. s i n o p e c. c o m. c n 11 w w w. c n p c. c o m. c n 12 1000 A- B- C - 142
D- E- ( ) 13 500 >=10 C h e v r o n( ) BP Shell ExxonMobile Eni S.p.A. Philips 4-7 TOTAL ELF ( ) A- (I w a i) <4 ExxonMobile Shell BP BASF AG B-1-2 TOTAL ELF ( ) (Dow) >=11 (Dow) >5 BASF AG BP Bayer Ciba LG E ON AG Du Pont ( ) C - Hoechst A G( ) S K <5 S h e ll C h e v r o n( ) Philips TOTAL ELF ( ) ExxonMobile Eni S.p.A. S K 10 Du Pont( ) >=2 ExxonMobile D- H o e c h s t A G( ) <2 Berkshire Hathway BASF AG S K >30 E->9 <9 Hoechst A G( ) 143
( ) Bridegestone Du Pont( ) (I w a i) Bayer( ) L G G o o d y e a r( ) S K 6 O x f o r d E c o n o m i c F o r e c a s t i n g L t d.(oef) O x f o r d E c o n o m i c s a n d T h e S i g n a l G r o u p. T h e C h i n a E f f e c t : A s s e s s i n g t h e I m p a c t o n t h e U S E c o n o m y o f T r a d e a n d I n v e s t m e n t w i t h China, T h e C h i n a B u s i n e s s F o r u m, ( J a n u a r y, 2 0 0 6 ) : 4. 14 WTO % 144
145
W T O ( 2 0 0 3 ) 391-3 9 2 15 WTO 27100013 2 0 0 4 3 9 0 7 6 0 1 1 39076019 54022000 54023310 54023390 54023990 54024200 54024300 54024990 54025200 54025990 > 5 0 / 54026200 54026990 54033310 55012000 55013000 55020010 55032000 55033000 55062000 55063000 55092100 55092200 55093100 55093200 55095900 55096100 55096200 5 5 0 96900 W T O : W o r k i n g P a r t y o n t h e A c c e s s i o n o f C h i n a, A N N E X 3 B, 1 O c t o b e r 2 0 0 1, W T / A C C / C H N / 4 9 ( O c t. 1, 2 0 0 1 ), a t h t t p : / / d o c s o n l i n e. w t o. o r g / i m r d / d i r e c t d o c. a s p? D D F D o c u m e n t s / t / W T / A C C / C H N 4 9. d o c 146
16 ( C N P C ) 147 ( 2 0 0 1 17 ( S I N O P E C )
( 2 0 0 1 148
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 149
14 15 29 30 a b c d e 2001 (Fortun) 500 (Fortune Global 500) < 500 > 1 6 9 (Fortune) 500 < 1000 < 1000 < 500 > 1 6 9 500 ( 2 0 0 2 9 ) 1 7 0 ( 2 0 0 5 9 ) 1 7 1 2 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 ( ) h t t p : / / r e s o u r c e. e m a g e c o m p a n y. c o m / b i g 5 / c h e m i s t r y / h u a g o n g z h i z h a o. h t m 150
151
152
1 0 0 0 153
154
155
a 28 a 28 a 28 156
a 24 a 24 a 28 a 19 c 22 a 22 a 28 a 21 c 24 80 b 28 LLDPE EG SM PP a 28 a 22 a 28 a 28 a 28 a 28 c 7 c 7 c 28 PTA c 24 a 26 c 22 b 25 a 28 a 28 a 28 a 24 a 28 a 20 e 23 e 21 e 21 e 21 e 21 157
d 6 a 24 c 25 e 23 e 24 e 24 e 16 c 20 e 8 e 10 e 22 e 23 e 19 PVC c 7 P E c 22 PTA e 27 e 24 e 27 c 26 c 26 e 24 c 24 c 24 e 24 e 24 e 25 e 25 e 25 e 24 e 24 d 24 c 24 c 24 158
e 25 c 28 c 26 c 20 e 25 d 28 e 28 e 28 e 26 e 19 e 18 e 21 e 19 e 21 e 26 e 24 e 24 e 24 c 24 e 24 e 24 d 24 e 24 e 24 e 24 e 24 e 24 d 28 e 21 e 21 d 21 159
e 21 e 21 e 19 d 19 e 19 c 19 e 25 e 25 e 25 e 25 e 25 e 25 e 25 e 25 c 25 e 25 e 25 e 25 e 25 e 25 e 23 e 23 d 23 d 23 e 23 e 23 e 23 d 26 c 22 e 22 d 27 e 24 e 24 d 26 160
e 24 e 26 e 23 d 23 d 23 e 21 e 20 e 21 6 6 / e 28 e 24 e 24 BOPP e 28 e 24 BMC e 25 e 24 O P P c 24 c 24 c 28 e 25 c 24 e 15 d 28 e 26 e 26 e 26 e 26 e 26 d 26 d 26 e 8 a 20 c 19 e 19 e 23 e 23 161
c 24 c 24 e 28 e 28 e 25 e 25 e 25 e 25 e 25 d 25 e 25 e 25 e 24 e 24 e 24 e 24 e 24 e 24 e 28 e 21 e 26 c 24 SBR e 24 e 24 c 23 c 29 c 24 e 7 a 26 a 26 a e 22 BOPP a 28 a 28 a 24 a 22 a 22 162
a 28 a 28 a 23 c 24 a 28 a 28 a 24 c 25 a 28 a 28 a 28 c 24 a 28 a 28 a 28 a 28 a 23 d 25 c 25 c 25 c 24 c 24 c 25 6 c 11 c 28 d 25 25 b 24 c 23 d 24 e 24 e 28 163
e 25 d 19 c 28 d 28 66 d 23 66 c 16 e 28 c 20 d 24 e 21 c 24 c 23 c 25 e 25 c 25 c 25 P C e 19 c 22 e 21 c 26 c 26 SAN c 26 ABS e 22 PVC c 28 c 26 c 26 c 26 c 26 POLYOL b 22 c 24 c 24 164
c 24 c 28 POLYURE c 28 21 b 22 c 24 c 25 d 25 e 25 c 20 c 24 e 24 e 24 e 21 e 21 e 25 e 25 e 23 e 23 e 20 a 28 a 28 a 23 a 21 c 25 c 24 c 28 c 25 c 28 APC ABP AFWA c 28 c 28 e 24 e 9 165
e 25 e 28 e 25 d 19 66 c 24 e 23 c 24 c 25 6 66 d 19 e 19 e 24 e 19 e 22 e 24 a 28 a 1 e 24 c 24 L D P E e 19 e 19 e 19 e 19 e 25 e 23 e 19 c 25 d 23 e 15 166
c 19 c 19 ABS c 22 c 25 c 25 e 24 c 24 e 26 e 26 e 26 e 26 e 26 d 26 e 21 e 24 e 28 e 28 e 28 b 19 a 1 a 28 a 20 a 28 c 21 c 25 b 25 c 28 P P TOTAL ELF c 28 P C c 25 167
c 23 25 c 21 b 26 e 24 P S e 25 P S e 21 P S 168
() 169
170
171
172
1 (2005 1 ) 53-54 173
174
175
176
177
178