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CSFO

Tragedy of the Horizon Climate change is the Tragedy of the Horizon. The catastrophic impacts of climate change will be felt beyond the traditional horizons of most actors - imposing a cost on future generations that the current generation has no direct incentive to fix. That means beyond the business cycle, the political cycle, and the horizon of technocratic authorities. Our role can be in developing the frameworks that help the market itself to adjust efficiently. Any efficient market reaction to climate change risks as well as the technologies and policies to address them must be founded on transparency of information. Our efforts will help smooth the transition prompted by these actions. With better information and risk management as the foundations, a virtuous circle is being built with better understanding of tomorrow s risks, better pricing for investors, better decisions by policymakers and a smooth transition to a low carbon economy. 2

Bank of England (2018), Transition in Thinking: The Impact of Climate Change on the UK Banking Sector 3

TCFD 5

WEF: Global Risks Report 2020 The Global Risks Report 2020, World Economic Forum

2018 84 Oliver Wyman/IACPM (2019) Climate Change: Managing New Financial Risk 7

2018 Oliver Wyman/IACPM (2019) Climate Change: Managing New Financial Risk 8

2018 79 Oliver Wyman/IACPM (2019) Climate Change: Managing New Financial Risk 9

2018 10

TCFD 2019 GSIA (December 2019) Sustainable Investor Poll on TCFD Implementation 11

2019 GSIA (December 2019) Sustainable Investor Poll on TCFD Implementation 12

TCFD 2019 GSIA (December 2019) Sustainable Investor Poll on TCFD Implementation 13

( ESG Source GSIA, Global Sustainable Investment Review 2018 14

Environmental Challenges Technological Advances 17

3 5 10 20 30 40 50 18

TCFD (2019 10 ) 22

MCHC : 2011 Z: Public Interest & Environment Century MOS Y: Innovation & Frontier Decade MOT X: Profits & Efficiency Quarter MOE HD 24

ROESG 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 a,b 9:1 y = 0.0045x - 0.0365 R² = 0.8126 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 ROESG 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 8:2 y = 0.0073x + 0.2518 R² = 0.8886 0 20 40 60 80 100 ROESG 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 5:5 y = 0.0048x + 0.4511 R² = 0.4526 0 20 40 60 80 100 ROESG HD 25

IIRC : IIRC(2014 3 ) 26

2018 27

IIRC-PBR PBR 2018 28

Agriculture, Food, and Forest Products Group TCFG (2017), Implementing the Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures 30

TCFG (2017), Implementing the Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures 31

TCFG (2017), Implementing the Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures 32

Selected Global Climate Impacts in 2100 Bank of England (2017), The Bank of England s Response to Climate Change (Quarterly Bulletin 2017 Q2) 33

Ecosystem services material to the highest number of production processes Natural Capital Finance Alliance/UNEP-FI, EXPLORING NATURAL CAPITAL OPPORTUNITIES, RISKS AND EXPOSURE: A practical guide for financial institutions 34

Production processes with the highest number of material dependencies on nature Natural Capital Finance Alliance/UNEP-FI, EXPLORING NATURAL CAPITAL OPPORTUNITIES, RISKS AND EXPOSURE: A practical guide for financial institutions 35

Source UNEP-FI (2018), Navigating a New Climate 36

Moran, Busby et al. (2018), The Intersection of Global Fragility and Climate Risks 37

Moran, Busby et al. (2018), The Intersection of Global Fragility and Climate Risks 38

427 (2019), Demystifying Climate Scenario Analysis for Financial Stakeholders 39

LaRC-Flood 40

TRASE: Transparent Supply Chains for Sustainable Economies TRASE 41

ENCORE: Exploring Natural Capital Opportunities, Risks and Exposure Natural Capital Finance Alliance/UNEP-FI, EXPLORING NATURAL CAPITAL OPPORTUNITIES, RISKS AND EXPOSURE: A practical guide for financial institutions 42

Carbon Delta: Extreme Weather Senario VAR Carbon Delta 47

Inevitable Policy Response (IPR) IPR (2019), The Inevitable Policy Response: Forecast Policy Scenario 48

Inevitable Policy Response (IPR) IPR (2019), The Inevitable Policy Response: Forecast Policy Scenario 49

Inevitable Policy Response (IPR) IPR (2019), The Inevitable Policy Response: Forecast Policy Scenario 50

Inevitable Policy Response (IPR) IPR (2019), The Inevitable Policy Response: Forecast Policy Scenario 51

TCFD TCFD 52