2009 8 3 :,, CHIP,,, 12 %,,,,, :,,,,1990,,,,,, 2000 6213 % 2007 4818 %,,, 2007 17, 69 %, ( Duesenbery Friedman Modigliani Hall ),, ( Leland,1968 ;Miller,1976 ; Kimball,1990 ), NLS PSID, ( Caballero, 1991 ; Carroll, 1994 ; Kazarosian, 1997 ), Dardanoni (1991) FES -, 1990 (1999), (2004) (2008),, :, 3,, :411105, :rudaiyang @ gmail. com ; ( ),, :100081, :chenbinkai @gmail. com, (09BJL042), 113
:,,,,,, : 1990,,?,,,,, 2000 (,2004) :1990,,,,,2000, (,2008),,,,,,,,, 1990,,,, 4, 10, ( ) 90,,,,, 2000,,, 1 1995 2007,2000,, 1996 5811 % 2000 6213 % ;, 4518 % 4614 %, 2911 % 2514 %, :2007, 4818 %, 3514 % ;,,2005 3516 % 2000? 2000,,,,,, ;,, 114
2009 8,,,, 2000,,,,, 1 ( 1995 2007), ( ) 1999 1999 1999,,,,, 1999 2, 1986 57 1998 108, 89 % ; 1986 188 1998 341, 81 % ;, 217 815, 215 %,1999, 1999, 7, 2005 505 1562, 1998 368 % 358 % 2 3 ( 3), 1998 2005, 598 2660, 345 %, 357 1090,,, 1999 : 2000 115
:,,,, 1998 73 2005 792,7 10 1999 : ; :,, ;,,,1999,,,,, 1995 9 % 2002 15 %, 1995 8 % 2002 12 %,,,, ( ) (2007), 1995 2002 (CHIP), (2007) ( Engen and Gruber,2001),, Kazarosian (1997) 15 ;, Carroll (1994), -,,, Engen and Gruber (2001) :,, 1999,1995 2002,,,,, : 1995 2002, C, Y,stu - college (0,1 ), X, : 116
2009 8 C = + Y + Y 3 stu - college + stu - college + X + (1),,, (1), 1995 2002,,,, year(0 1995,1 2002 ), : C = + Y + Y 3 stu - college 3 year + 1 Y 3 year + 2 Y 3 stu - college + 3 year 3 stu - college + 4 year + 5 stu - college + X + (2),,,, ( ),,,, 1999,,,,,,, 1 % 1 %,,,, 1 1995 2002, 48 %, 716 %, 114,, 3,,, 6190 7164, ( ), 2, (a) 1995 (1), (b) 2002 (1), (c) (2),, (a), 1995,, (b), stu - college,, ( ),,,,,, OLS :,,,, ; ; ; ;, 5 ;,,, 117
:,2002,, 0103, 12 %,,, (c) (a) (b),,, 1995, 2002 1 1995 2002 Consumption 14426 2115 1838 100 9992 Income 14426 3226 2312 302 14677 stu - college 0 ( ) ;13028 ;1 ( ) :1400 total - asset 13960 7189 11432 8 264300 edu - payment 11751 154 327 0. 12 9022 med - payment 11600 135 442 0. 14 40059 avg - edu 14108 6. 90 2. 85 0. 17 20. 50 pop - number 14426 3. 79 1. 25 1 10 hholder - gender 0 ( ) :2578 ;1 ( ) :11850 hholder - age 14428 44. 95 11. 07 16 95 hholder - married 0 ( ) :548 ;1 ( ) :13880 hholder - edu 14276 8. 23 3. 66 0 24 Consumption 15512 2275 1834 4 13187 Income 15517 4773 3746 555 22798 stu - college 0 ( ) :13266 ;1 ( ) :2251 total - asset 14806 17455 23798 0. 90 620051 edu - payment 10104 625 952 0. 15 20288 med - payment 14411 247 593 0. 13 18014 avg - edu 15456 7. 64 2. 75 0. 33 20 pop - number 15515 3. 65 1. 23 1 12 hholder - gender 0 ( ) :2517 ;1 ( ) :13000 hholder - age 15517 47. 06 10. 72 16 92 hholder - married 0 ( ) :740 ;1 ( ) :14769 hholder - edu 15517 8. 71 3. 34 0 23 : ;, 1995, 2002 ;,,1999 :,,,, stu - college,, stu - college, 12, 9, stu - college, :,,,,,, (,1999) ; 118
2009 8,,,,,,,,, 2 (a) (b) (c) t t t Income 013493 333 63107 012603 333 74186 013877 333 78195 Income 3 stu - college 010203 1149-010299 333-4112 010082 0160 Income 3 stu - college 3 year - 010315 33-2103 year 3 Income - 011374 333-26163 year 3 total - asset 010002 0120 total - asset 3 stu - college 3 year 010060 33 2107 year 3 stu - college 263110 333 3184 year 96152 333 4148 total - asset 3 stu - college - 010028-1107 010026 33 2139-010030 - 1111 stu - college - 315141 333-5152 57149 1142-257137 333-4152 total - asset 010028 333 3133 010038 333 8145 010036 333 4123 medical - payment 010265 1127 010888 333 6100 010479 333 3194 education 39119 333 7107 47165 333 9125 48114 333 12163 pop - number - 127164 333-15175 - 99172-12143 - 107165 333-18186 urban 1031148 33 31103 571106 333 18194 911156 333 44138 hholder - gender 26175 1108 108190 333 4143 89121 333 5106 hholder - age 4101 333 4169-5113 333-6116 - 0157-0195 hhloder - married 87183 33 1195 24120 0162 42108 1141 hhloder - edu 2149 0163 6120 1163 6160 33 2139 constant 442101 333 4165 1220112 333 13146 822177 333 12129 Obs. 10087 13323 24843 Adj. R 2 017086 017125 017031 :333 1 %,33 5 %, 3 10 %,,,,, ( ) (Deaton,1991 ;Carroll,2001 ),,, : 119
: max E t T s = t s- t u ( C s ) s. t. W s+1 R s+1 ( X s - C s ) s W s +1 R s+1 ( X s - C s - E s ) s Y s+1 = P s+1 s +1 ; P s+1 = GP s ; X s+1 = W s+1 + Y s+1 ; X s 0, W s + 1, s, R s + 1, s C s E s Y s + 1 s + 1, P s + 1 1 s + 1, E s ( s + 1 ) = 1, G s + 1 W s + 1 s + 1 Y s + 1,,,,, : c s = C s ΠP s, w s = W s ΠP s, x s = X s ΠP s, y s = Y s ΠP s, e s = E s ΠP s (CRRA), u ( c) = ( c 1 - - 1)Π(1 - ), : v t ( x t ) = max u ( c t ) + E t [ G 1- v t +1 ( x t +1 ) ] s. t. w t +1 = RΠG( x t - c t ) t w t +1 = RΠG( x t - c t - e t ) t x t +1 = w t +1 + t +1 ; x t,, 0196, 4 %,,, 4 %(Carroll,2001), 1 5,, Carroll (2001), 2, 1, 012, Deaton (1991) Aiyagari (1993) 9 1978 2006 9 %, G 9 % T, 20,60, T 40 ( ) -,,, 4,, 4,, c ( T) 45,, x ( T - 1) 10 c ( T - 1) 5,,, 45,, :,, 0 9, I 1 = ( -,1-7Π4 ) I 2 = (1-7Π4,1-5Π4 ) I 9 = (1 + 7Π4, + ), {1-2,,1 + 2 }, Carroll (2001) 120
2009 8,,, -, 5 lognormal (1,012) 40,, 012082, 011490,,,,,, 4 ( ) - 5 -, 1999, p E s,, 2002 0152, p 0152, 2002 9398, 40000, - e s = E s ΠP s = 4,, t e = 20, 40, 40 % (,2007),, 014, Ps 40 % t e,,, t e,, 6 6,,,, :, ;,,,, t ( e),,,,,,, 121
: 6, -,, 7 7 -,,, - -, -, - ( t < 20),, 30, ( t > 20),, t e = 20,, t e,, ( ), 600000 ( 122
2009 8 300000 ),,, 3 (a), (b), 012137 011822, 1417 %,, 3,, 1990, (a) (b) t t Income 012137 333 77101 011822 333 61130 Wealth 011980 333 665140 011884 333 591147 Constant 411247 333 554154 411956 333 526159 Obs. 300000 300000 Adj. R 2 017668 017793,,, 1999 4, 10,,, :, CHIP,,,, 12 %,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2007 :, 9,2007 :, ( ) 2,1999 :, 3,2004 : :1999 2003, 10,1999 :, 6,2007 :?, 12 123
:,2008 :, 2 Aiyagari, S. Rao, 1993, Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving, Working Papers 502, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Caballero, R. J., 1990, Consumption Puzzles and Precautionary Savings, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 25, pp. 113 136. Carroll, C. D., 2001, A Theory of the Consumption Function, With and Without Liquidity Constraints ( Expanded Version), NBER Working Paper No. W8387. Carroll, C. D., 1994, How Does Future Income Affect Current Consumption, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 109, pp. 111 147. Dardanoni, V., 1991, Precautionary Savings under Income Uncertainty a Cross2sectional Analysis, Applied Economics, Vol. 101, pp. 1104 1113. Deaton, A. S., 1991, Saving and Liquidity Constraints, Econometrica, Vol. 59, pp. 1121 1148. Engena E. M. and Gruberb J., 2001, Unemployment Insurance and Precautionary Saving, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 47, pp. 545 579. 473. Kazarosian, M., 1997, Precautionary Savings2A Panel Study, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 79, pp. 241 247. Kimball, M. S., 1990, Precautionary Savings in the Small and in the Large, Econometrica, Vol. 58, pp. 53 73. Leland, H. E., 1968, Saving and Uncertainty : The Precautionary Demand for Saving, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 82, pp. 465 Miller, R. L., 1976, The Effect on Optimal Consumption of Increased Uncertainty in Labour Income in the Multi2period, Journal of Economics Theory, Vol. 13, pp. 154 167. Higher Education Reform, Precautionary Saving and Consumer Behavior Yang Rudai a and Chen Binkai b (a : China Center for Rural Research (CCRR), Xiangtan University b : School of Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics) Abstract :Substantial empirical researches show that households in China have high incentive of precautionary saving ; however, few micro2data2based studies on the reasons accounting for this incentive have been made. Based on the CHIP dataset, cross2 section analysis demonstrates that higher education reform in 1999 has a significant Squeeze2out effect on household consumption, and marginal propensity to consume of households with members attaining higher education had decreased by 12 percent from 1995 to 20021 Under the Life Cycle Model frame, a theoretical model is constructed with education being introduced in. Simulation analysis indicates that anticipation of increasing uncertainty as a result of higher education reform is the main reason that accounts for the higher incentive of precautionary saving and thus the sluggish consumption demand in China. Key Words : Higher Education Reform ; Precautionary Saving ; Consumer Behavior JEL Classification : I23, E21, D63 ( : ) ( : ) 124