一季報點評 Bloomberg Reuters POEMS 1055.HK 1055.HK 1055.HK 行業 : 航空運輸一季報業績點評評級 : 增持收市價 :4.06HKD 目標價 :4.6HKD 公司概要南方航空是中國三大航空集團之一以及天合聯盟成員, 目前經營著以波音 空客為主的各型飛機 450 余架, 於 1997 年和 2003 年南航分別在香港 (1055.HK) 和上海 (600029SH) 上市 該公司的主要基地位於廣州, 是目前國內年客運量最大的航空公司 投資概要 一季度實現微利, 同比下滑 82% 按照中國會計準則, 南航一季度營業收入同比微降 0.4% 至 235.9 億, 主要是受到營業稅改增值稅影響 主營成本同比增長 4.2%, 淨利潤同比下滑 82% 至 5700 萬, 每股收益 0.006 元 公司業績在三大航中居中, 盈利大幅下跌的主要原因是成本增長超過收入 高油價, 低票價制約盈利能力 一季度雖然國際航油價格小幅下跌, 但國內航油價格同比微增 0.6%, 由於南航的國內航線占比較大, 令其燃油成本維持在歷史高位, 從需求端來看, 一季度公司國際航線需求增速較快, 但國際市場推廣策略影響, 淨票價水平同比下降 2%, 拖累了盈利能力 經營數據保持穩步增長 數據顯示, 一季度公司客運量 ( 收入可公里 ) 同比增長 10.2%, 高於國航的 8.7%, 低於東航的 14.22% 運力投放 8.7%, 高於國航的 5.4%, 低於東航的 12.53% 客座率上漲 1.1 個百分點至 80.6%, 小於東航的 1.2 個百分點和國航的 2.4 個百分點 不過, 低價促銷策略推動公司的國際航線客座率同比大增 3.2 個百分點至 76.8% 展望 : 負面因素逐漸改善逐漸改善 四月受禽流感影響, 行業整體需求有所下降, 但預計隨著暑期旺季的啟動及商務客的逐步復蘇, 航空票價水平將逐步企穩回升, 航空業增收不增利的情況將有所改善 航油方面, 四, 五月份國內航油價格連續下調合計 900 元 / 每噸左右, 航油成本壓力得到明顯緩解, 對公司構成實質利好 值得一提的是, 受益於人民幣升值產生的匯兌收益, 南航一季度財務費用同比大減 97% 至 900 萬 四月以來, 人民幣升值幅度繼續加大, 預計仍將改善公司業績表現 估值 : 公司的國際化戰略正在從粗放的數量增長轉向效率的提升 不過,13 年增長較快的運力引進對盈利帶來一定考驗 根據目前行業持續回暖態勢和公司的綜合情況, 基於公司 2013 年預期每股淨資產和 1 倍市淨率, 目標價至 4.6 港元, 給予 增持 的投資評級 Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd 南方航空 Rating 2.00 增持 - Previous Rating 1.00 买入 Target Price (HKD) 4.6 - Previous Target Price (HKD) 5.04 Closing Price (HKD) 4.06 Expected Capital Gains (%) 13.3% Expected Dividend Yield (%) 1.5% Expected Total Return (%) 14.8% Raw Beta (Past 2yrs w eekly data) 0.92 Market Cap. (HKD bn) 41,429 Enterprise Value (HKD mn) 85,417 52 w eek range (HKD) 3.2-4.8 Closing Price in 52 w eek range 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 研究分析員章晶 zhangjing@phillip.com.cn +86 63512937 Phillip Securities Research Key Financial Summary FYE 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13F 12/14F Revenue (HKD mn) 76,495 90,395 99,514 110,316 125,120 Net Profit, adj. (HKD mn) 5,795 5,110 2,619 3,860 4,095 EPS, adj. (HKD) 0.59 0.52 0.27 0.39 0.42 P/E (X),adj. 5.6 6.3 12.2 8.2 7.7 BVPS (HKD) 2.73 3.28 3.34 3.64 3.97 P/B (X) 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 DPS (HKD) 0.00 3.28 3.34 3.64 3.97 Div. Yield (%) 0.0% 6.1% 1.5% 1.9% 1.9% Source: Bloomberg, PSR est. *All multiples & yields based on current market price Valuation Method PB 18-May-12 18-Jun-12 18-Jul-12 18-Aug-12 18-Sep-12 18-Oct-12 18-Nov-12 0% 50% 100% 18-Dec-12 18-Jan-13 18-Feb-13 18-Mar-13 18-Apr-13 Volume, mn 1055 hk equity HSI 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 of 1
Fig 1. Peer Comparison USD Price Mark BEst Ticker Name chg Cap P/B (3 M)% BEst P/B: Y+1 Est P/E Est P/E (Y+1) BEst EV/BEst EBITDA P/B ROA LF % ROE % QAN AU Equity QANTAS 3823 0.095 0.7 0.6 43.0 10.7 3.9 0.7-0.84-4.07 LHA GR Equity LUFTHANS 9264 0.175 1.1 1.0 12.6 7.6 3.1 1.6 3.14 12.23 1055 HK Equity CSA 5337-0.55 0.9 0.8 9.0 8.0 6.7 1.0 1.93 8.06 753 HK Equity AC 11347-0.17 1.3 1.1 11.3 9.5 7.9 1.4 2.55 9.62 293 HK Equity CX 7217-1 1.0 0.9 20.3 11.5 8.3 1.0 0.61 1.62 670 HK Equity CEA 5547-0.54 1.1 0.9 7.6 6.5 7.1 1.2 2.48 13.72 9202 JP Equity AN 7332 23 1.0 0.9 16.2 14.1 4.8 1.0 2.08 6.56 SIA SP Equity SIA 10760 0.53 1.0 1.0 34.8 19.4 4.7 1.0 1.24 2.48 UAL US Equity UC 10993 7.05 7.2 3.2 8.9 6.7 4.4 NA -1.84-63.23 DAL US Equity DELTA 15321 3.65 153.3 5.9 6.8 6.0 5.0 NA 2.0 NA LUV US Equity SW 10157 2.48 1.3 1.3 13.1 11.3 4.5 1.4 2.0 Data source: Bloomberg, PSR 6.1 風險因素 經濟衰退深化導致航空需求大幅下降 ; 油價飆升 ; 人民幣大幅貶值導致匯兌損失 ; 行業內發生非理性價格戰 ; 戰爭 恐怖事件 流行性疾病等突發事件 ; 高鐵的衝擊 2 of 2
FYE DEC FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13F FY14F Valuation Ratios P/E (X), adj. 5.6 6.3 12.2 8.2 7.7 P/B (X) 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0% 6.1% 1.5% 1.9% 1.9% Per share data (RMB) EPS, reported 0.59 0.52 0.27 0.39 0.42 EPS, adj. 0.59 0.52 0.27 0.39 0.42 DPS 0.00 0.2 0.05 0.06 0.06 BVPS 2.73 3.28 3.34 3.64 3.97 Growth & Margins (%) Grow th Revenue 39.6% 18.2% 10.1% 10.9% 13.4% EBIT NA -53.5% 17.1% 12.6% 25.2% Net Income, adj. NA -11.8% -48.7% 47.4% 6.1% Margins EBIT margin NA 4.8% 5.1% 5.2% 5.7% Net Profit Margin NA 5.7% 2.6% 3.5% 3.3% Key Ratios ROE (%) 21.6% 15.9% 8.1% 11.3% 11.0% ROA (%) 5.2% 3.9% 1.8% 2.7% 2.8% Income Statement (RMB mn) Revenue 76,495 90,395 99,514 110,316 125,120 Operating expenses (70,685) (87,063) (95,877) (106,254) (119,765) Other Gains-net 476 1,021 1,462 1,680 1,832 Profit from operations 6,286 4,353 5,099 5,742 7,187 Non-operating income/expense (1,265) 2,577 (361) 826 (248) Profit before tax 8,093 6,930 4,738 6,568 6,939 Tax (1,678) (840) (954) (1,314) (1,318) Profit for the period 6,415 6,090 3,784 5,254 5,621 Minority interests (620) (980) (1,165) (1,394) (1,526) Total capital share 9,818 9,818 9,818 9,818 9,818 Net profit 5,795 5,110 2,619 3,860 4,095 Source: PSR 3 of 3
Ratings History 7 6 Market Price Target Price Source: Bloomberg, PSR 5 4 3 2 1 0 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 Oct-11 Jul-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Oct-10 Jul-10 Apr-10 Jan-10 Oct-09 Jul-09 Apr-09 Jan-09 Oct-08 Jul-08 Apr-08 1 2 3 4 5 PSR Rating System Total Returns Recommendation Rating > +20% Buy 1 +5% to +20% Accumulate 2-5% to +5% Neutral 3-5% to -20% Reduce 4 <-20% Sell 5 Remarks We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk rew ard profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation 4 of 4
PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price +5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20%upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -20% Reduce 4-5% to -20% downside from the current price <-20% Sell 5 >20%downside from the current price We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd ( Phillip Securities ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. 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聯絡資料 ( 各地區成員公司 ) 新加坡 SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Raffles City Tower 250, North Bridge Road #06-00 Singapore 179101 電話 : (65) 6533 6001 傳真 : (65) 6535 6631 網頁 : www.poems.com.sg 香港 HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Exchange Participant of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong 電話 : (852) 22776600 傳真 : (852) 28685307 網頁 :www.phillip.com.hk 印尼 INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A Jakarta 10220 Indonesia 電話 : (62-21) 57900800 傳真 : (62-21) 57900809 網頁 : www.phillip.co.id 泰國 THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Thailand 電話 : (66-2) 6351700 / 22680999 傳真 : (66-2) 22680921 網頁 : www.phillip.co.th 英國 UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Capital Limited 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6AS 電話 : (44-20) 7426 5950 傳真 : (44-20) 7626 1757 網頁 : www.kingandshaxson.com 馬來西亞 MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block B Level 3 Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur 電話 : (603) 21628841 傳真 : (603) 21665099 網頁 : www.poems.com.my 日本 JAPAN PhillipCapital Japan K.K. Nagata-cho Bldg., 8F, 2-4-3 Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0014 電話 : (81-3) 35953631 傳真 : (81-3) 35953630 網頁 :www.phillip.co.jp 中國 CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd No 550 Yan An East Road, Ocean Tower Unit 2318, Postal code 200001 電話 : (86-21) 51699200 傳真 : (86-21) 63512940 網頁 : www.phillip.com.cn 法國 FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Limited 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance 75008 Paris France 電話 : (33-1) 45633100 傳真 : (33-1) 45636017 網頁 : www.kingandshaxson.com 美國 UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL 60604 USA 電話 : +1.312.356.9000 傳真 : +1.312.356.9005 澳洲 AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 37, 530 Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia 電話 : (613) 96298380 傳真 : (613) 96148309 網頁 : www.phillipcapital.com.au 6 of 6