China-Australia Low-carbon Cities Development Roadmap Seminar The Development Path for Low-carbon Industries in Tianjin Center for Strategic Environmental Assessment in Nankai University Xu He seacenter@nankai.edu.cn 2012.9 1
Contents 1. The Way of Developing cities Low-carbon Industries 2. The Roadmap for Low-carbon Industries Development in Tianjin 3. The Backcasting of Key Industries Low-carbon Policies in Tianjin 4. Conclusion 2
1. The Way of Developing Cities Low-carbon Industries 3
Cities Low-carbon Industries Overview Industry Chain s Value Distribution in China High-carbon Industry: Energy, automobile, steel, transportation, chemical engineering, building material Non-resourcebased enterprises resourcebased enterprises Improving industries and products towards the both ends of profit curve Fore-end Improving the industry structure towards the standards of low-carbon economy by developing brands and selling network, increasing Industries additional value and core competence Back-end Making innovation: eco design, low-carbon design, industrial cluster innovation, etc. 4
Cities Low-carbon Industries The Way of Developing Cities Low-carbon Industries Traditional Carbon Emission forecast According to the current trend The functions have small value of operability and instructive, except forecasting function Backcasting Backcasting according to industrial carbon emissions, carbon productivity, etc. Seeking for the way of energy conservation, solve the emission reduction
Backcasting Strategy position Future expectations and scene construction for sustainable development Backcasting Establishing, analyzing, and confirming successor activity and action agenda First confirm there has sufficient and clean energy in the future key business can reach the emission reduction target emission reduction trend accords with the sustainable rule Backcasting according to indexes as industrial carbon emissions, carbon productivity, and other restriction conditions Acquirement and execution of successor activity and action agenda Seeking a way of society, economy and business energy conservation, and reaching the goal of energy saving and emission reduction 6
Backcasting Framework Conform to the goal yes no now future time oriented research other researches 1 数学模型 forecast expectation mathematical model 饶祖海, 仝允桓. 面向未来的研究 反推法 [J]. 技术经济与管理研究, 2003, (3): 22-24. 7
2.The Roadmap for Low-carbon Industries Development in Tianjin 8
Research Background Emission reduction pressure The second industry has the most carbon emission 1990 年 2000 年 2008 年 Hard task of energy conservation and emission reduction GDP( 亿元,2005 年不变价 ) 646 1921 5682 人口 2008 ( 万人年排放的 ) 11966 万吨二氧化碳中, If we take efforts during the 12 th and 13rd 884 five-year 1001 period, 1176 in 人均 GDP( 第一产业排放万元 / 人,2005 99 万吨年不变价, 占 ) 0.8%; 0.73 1.92 4.83 能源消费总量 2015 energy ( intensity 万吨标准煤 will ) reach 0.76 tons 2038 of standard 2794 coal/ten 5364 第二产业排放 10311 万吨, 占 86.2%; 化石燃料燃烧的二氧化碳排放 thousand yuan, 14.6% lower ( 万吨 than ) 2010;in 4708 2020 the 6389 intensity 11966 will 排放系数 第三产业排放 ( 吨 / 吨标准煤 1230 ) 万吨, 占 10.3%; 2.31 2.29 2.23 reach 0.65 tons of standard coal/ten thousand yuan, 11.8% lower 单位 GDP 能耗 ( 吨标准煤 / 万元 ) 3.16 1.45 0.947 居民生活消费排放 327 万吨, 占 2.7% 人均能源消费 than 2015. ( 吨标准煤 / 人 ) 2.31 2.79 4.56 单位 GDP 二氧化碳排放强度 ( 吨 / 万元 ) 7.29 3.33 2.11 人均化石燃料燃烧二氧化碳排放 ( 吨 / 人 ) 5.33 6.38 10.18 The carbon emission in the 12 th five-year reduces 3.2%. In order to reach the goal that in 2020 the emission will drop 45% than 2005, the reduction in the 13rd five-year should be 2.9%. 9
The research emphasis for low-carbon industry in Tianjin Tianjin is a large city(more than 4 million population) Industrial system characteristic 1 Industrial system is a comprehensive, mature system, and has many categories 2The adjustment for structure has been accomplished basically 3 Many high-end and high-tech industries are gathered in the city. Cities have domestic advanced level of energy utilization efficiency and technology level 4 Urban has closed connection with surroundings The research emphasis for low-carbon industry 1 Pay more attention on the emission control technology and measures of the industries that have large emission and quick increase of emission 2 Combining the low-carbon industry and region low-carbon. Strengthen the utilization of non-fossil energy in large range and promote the reduction of emission 3 Promoting the demonstration and application of advanced low carbon technology, and discussing the relevent policy 10
The Roadmap for Low-carbon Industries Development in Tianjin
Industrial profile in Tianjin Figure 1.GDP constitution in 1978-2010 Figure 2. contribution rate of tertiary industry and per capita GDP in 1990-2010 (% ) 100 全市生产总值构成 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 (1978-2010) 第三产业 (% ) 第二产业 100 第一产业 90 三次产业贡献率 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 第一产业 第二产业 第三产业 人均 GDP 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 (1990-2010 年 ) 80000 ( 元 ) 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 人均 GDP 12
Figure1 annual growth rate of light, heavy, and whole industries production value in 1995-2010 (% ) 40 35 30 全部工业轻工业重工业 Figure2 light, heavy industries total value of out-put in 1995-2010 ( 亿元 ) 14000 12000 10000 轻工业重工业 产值历年增长率 25 20 15 10 5 工业总产值 8000 6000 4000 0-5 2000-10 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 (1995-2010) 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 (1995-2010) Figure3 Tianjin competitive industries production value in 2010 轻纺工业 1939.96 工业产值 新能源新材料 生物医药产业 611.54 457.77 项目 电子信息产业 2064.73 装备制造业 6880.77 石油化工产业 航空航天产业 3095.81 147.48 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 2010 年优势产业产值 ( 亿元 ) 13
Energy utilization situation in Tianjin The energy supply and demand issues in Tianjin manifest as shortage of energy production traditional energy electricity and gas coal oil import from other provinces and cities China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Dagang Oilfield insufficiency more attention on renovation and reconstruction less attention on new construction projects 14
(% ) 0.9 Energy utilization situation in Tianjin 第三产业第二产业第一产业 (% ) 0.75 0.70 proportion of industrial energy consumption in 工业能源占能源总耗比重 the total energy consumption 工业贡献率 contribution rate 三次产业终端能源消费量所占比重 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Figure1 The occupation of tertiary industry s energy end-use quantity in Tianjin (1995-2010) ( upper left ) 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 (1995~ 2010) Figure2:The proportion of industrial energy consumption in the total energy consumption and contribution rate comparison figure (1995 2010) (upper right) Figure3: The occupation of tertiary industry s energy enduse quantity in Tianjin (1995-2010)(lower right) 工业能源占能源总耗比重 三产终端能源消费 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 (% ) 0.92 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.82 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 (1995 2010) 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 (1995 2010) 15
The key emission reduction industries in Tianjin Figure:The carbon emission comparison of eight industries in Tianjin (t) steel and nonferrous building petro- chemical 钢铁和有色金属 chemical metals 石化化工 engineering 建材 materials 机械 machinery 轻工业 light 电子信息业 electronic 纺织业 textile information industry industry 天津市八大行业历年碳排放总量 8.0x10 6 6.0x10 6 4.0x10 6 2.0x10 6 According to the figure steel and nonferrous metals industry has the most quantity; the second is machinery and light industry; the last is electronic information and textile industry. 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 16
Low-carbon model 1 in a decade Figure: key industry Logistic emission reduction backcasting in 2010-2020 0.110 (t/ 万元 GDP) Logistic Fit of 重点减排行业碳生产率反推指标 0.105 重点节能减排行业碳生产率反推指标 0.100 0.095 0.090 0.085 0.080 0.075 Model Equation Reduced Chi-Sqr Logistic y = A2 + (A1-A2 )/(1 + (x/x0)^p) Adj. R-Square 0 0 Value Standard Error B A1 0.10733 -- B A2 0.07481 -- B x0 4.20839 -- B p 3 -- B EC20 2.65112 B EC50 4.20839 B EC80 6.6804 Both the 12th five-year and 13rd five-year follow the Logistic emission reduction model 0.070 2010 2015 2020 The meaning of use Logistic and Guass: energy conservation and emission reduction 17 accords with the development law
Low-carbon model 1 in a decade Figure: key industry Logistic emission reduction backcasting in 2010-2020 重点产业行业碳生产总量反推趋势 8x10 7 7x10 7 6x10 7 5x10 7 4x10 7 3x10 7 2x10 7 1x10 7 (t) Scenario 1:low scheme( 12% 情景一情景二 annual growth rate of GDP), 基准模式 low pressure for emission reduction; 基准值 情景值 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Scenario 2:high scheme( 15% annual growth rate of GDP), high pressure for emission reduction Baseline scenario:current development model,( 20% annual growth rate of key industry s GDP )without the macroeconomic regulation and control, it has the most emission 18 reduction pressure.
Low-carbon model 1 in a decade 重点产业行业碳生产总量反推趋势 8x10 7 7x10 7 6x10 7 5x10 7 4x10 7 3x10 7 2x10 7 (t) 情景一情景二基准模式 基准值 情景值 1x10 7 Figure: Backcasting according to the Logistic emission reduction model and scene of key industries in 2010-2020 Year Backcasting index of carbon emissions per unit of (t/10 thousand GDP) Carbon emission quantity backcasting indexes (t) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Baseline scenario 2011 0.10689 1.90948E7 1.96062E7 2.00329E7 2012 0.10417 2.08419E7 2.19734E7 2.3482E7 2013 0.09866 2.21082E7 2.39328E7 2.67498E7 2014 0.09228 2.316E7 2.57429E7 3.00935E7 2015 0.08696 2.44438E7 2.78977E7 3.41091E7 2016 0.08316 2.61807E7 3.06804E7 3.9233E7 2017 0.08062 2.84268E7 3.42048E7 4.57473E7 2018 0.07894 3.11746E7 3.85158E7 5.38773E7 2019 0.07783 3.44245E7 4.36703E7 6.38913E7 2020 0.07707 3.8179E7 4.97305E7 7.60968E7 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 19
Low-carbon model 2 in 5 years Backcasting of Logistic Emission reduction model: speed up first, then slow down First, enhance techniques, then, under the direction of the 13rd five-year plan, move the focus on structural reduction. Backcasting of Gauss Adjusting the emission reduction index according to the economic, social, and environmental policy After the metaphase of the 12 th five-year plan, the emission reduction speed will increase, which is totally different from scenario 1. Scenario 1 Scenario 2 20
Low-carbon model 2 in 5 years Scenario 1 Backcasting of Logistic Scenario 2 Backcasting of Gauss Figure: Backcasting of the 12 th five-year key industries energy conservation index carbon emissions per unit of GDP 0.110 0.105 0.100 (t/ 万元 GDP) Logistic fit 十二五 情景一 GaussAmp fit 十二五 情景二 Model Equation Reduced Chi-Sqr Logistic y = A2 + (A1-A2) /(1 + (x/x0)^p) Adj. R-Square 0 0 Value Standard Error 碳生产率 A1 0.10733 -- 碳生产率 A2 0.08801 -- 碳生产率 x0 2.5 -- 碳生产率 p 3 -- 碳生产率 EC20 1.5749 碳生产率 EC50 2.5 碳生产率 EC80 3.9685 十二五 0.095 0.090 重点行 业碳 生产率反推指标 Model Equation Reduced Chi-Sqr GaussAmp y=y0+a*exp(-0.5 *((x-xc)/w)^2) Adj. R-Square 0 0 Value Standard Error 碳生产率 y0 0.10733 -- 碳生产率 xc 5 -- 碳生产率 w 1.05 -- 碳生产率 A -0.01932 -- 碳生产率 FWHM 2.47256 碳生产率 Area -0.05084 0.085 2010 2015 21
Low-carbon model 2 in 5 years Backcasting scenario of 12 th five-year key industries Logistic&Guass emission reduction model 3.5x10 7 (t) Logistic 函数反推情景 3.5x10 7 (t) Guass 函数反推情景 3.0x10 7 情景一情景二基准模式 3.0x10 7 情景一情景二基准模式 2.5x10 7 2.5x10 7 2.0x10 7 2.0x10 7 十二五 重点行 1.5x10 7 业碳 生产总量 十二五 重点行 1.5x10 7 业碳 生产总量 1.0x10 7 基准值 情景值 1.0x10 7 基准值 情景值 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 22
Low-carbon model 2 3.5x10 7 (t) Logistic 函数反推情景 (t) 3.5x10 7 Guass 函数反推情景 in 5 years The 12 th five-year carbon emission load backcasting in two scenarios 十二五 3.0x10 7 2.5x10 7 2.0x10 7 重点行 1.5x10 7 1.0x10 7 情景一情景二基准模式 业碳生产总量 基准值 情景值 十二五 3.0x10 7 2.5x10 7 2.0x10 7 重点行 1.5x10 7 1.0x10 7 情景一情景二基准模式 业碳生产总量 基准值情景值 不同减排模式不同情景碳排放总量反推 1.4x10 7 1.2x10 7 1.0x10 7 8.0x10 6 6.0x10 6 4.0x10 6 2.0x10 6 0.0 (t) cell://sheet1!a[1] cell://sheet1!a[2] cell://sheet1!a[3] cell://sheet1!a[4] cell://sheet1!a[5] cell://sheet1!a[6] 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 The emission load in Logistic model is higher than Guass model 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 23
3. The Backcasting of Key Industries Low-carbon Policies in Tianjin 24
The Backcasting of Key Industries Low-carbon Policies in Tianjin Policy backcasting methods Grey correlation analysis Grey forecasting model Policy backcasting types Economy, business scale guide Energy guide
Iron and steel and non-ferrous metals industry 钢铁和有色金属行业历年碳生产总量, 8.0x10 6 6.0x10 6 4.0x10 6 2.0x10 6 钢铁和有色金属分行业碳生产率 (t) 0.0 (t/ 万元 GDP) 4.0x10-1 2.0x10-1 Figure: carbon emission and carbon emission per unit GDP of iron and steel and non-ferrous metals sub-sector industries 黑色金属矿采选业煤炭开采和洗选业黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业有色金属冶炼及压延加工业金属制品业 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 黑色金属矿采选业煤炭开采和洗选业黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业有色金属冶炼及压延加工业金属制品业 Figure: GDP and forecast of iron and steel and non-ferrous metals industries 钢铁和有色金属行业 ( 万元 GDP) 5x10 9 4x10 9 3x10 9 2x10 9 1x10 9 0 煤炭开采和洗选业黑色金属矿采选业黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业有色金属冶炼及压延加工业金属制品业 基准值 G D P 基准值与预测值 预测值 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 26
Iron and steel and non-ferrous metals industry, Carbon emission per unit GDP and other factors association degree of iron and steel and non-ferrous metals industries in Tianjin Steel and non-ferrous metals Ferrous Metals Mining and Dressing Economy and scale Energy structure GDP employees number coal oil electrothermal ++ +++ ++ +++ +++ --- Coal Mining and Dressing +++ ++++ --- ++ ++ --- Black metal smelting and rolling processing industry Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry + ++ + + ++ + ++ +++ + +++ +++ + metal product industry + ++ +++ + + ++ natural gas The association degree of carbon emission per unit GDP and other factors: ++++ extremely large;+++ very large; ++ large; + common; --- small or uncorrelated 27
The Backcasting of Key Industries Low-carbon Policies in Tianjin Backcasting of Economy, Business Scale Guide Policy (1) The grey correlation degree of coal and mining industry is the highest which has some relation with energy output mode in Tianjin The grey correlation degree of carbon intensity and economic scale Project Coal Mining and Dressing Ferrous Metals Mining and Dressing GDP Employee number 0.712 0.870 0.657 0.750 (2)GDP and scale of black metal industry have large influence on carbon intensity. This industry should construct database in order to help the policy guidance. Non-ferrous Metal Smelting and Rolling Processing Industry Black Metal Smelting and Rolling Processing Industry Metal Product Industry 0.627 0.756 0.580 0.609 0.599 0.617
The Backcasting of Key Industries Low-carbon Policies in Tianjin Backcasting of Economy, Business Scale Guide Policy (3) Non-ferrous and black metal industry are key industrial sectors of energy saving and emission reduction. GDP and scale of non-ferrous metal industry has large influence on carbon intensity. So the policy guidance of macro-public finance and microscopic industry scale should be strengthened. (4) Metal product industry has large potential to improve its technology, and develop its industrial chains. This industry should improve the products added value and energy structure, etc. The grey correlation degree of carbon intensity and economic scale Project Coal Mining and Dressing Ferrous Metals Mining and Dressing Non-ferrous Metal Smelting and Rolling Processing Industry Black Metal Smelting and Rolling Processing Industry Metal Product Industry GDP Employee number 0.712 0.870 0.657 0.750 0.627 0.756 0.580 0.609 0.599 0.617
The Backcasting of Key Industries Low-carbon Policies in Tianjin Backcasting of Energy Guide Policy (1)The transformation of energy utilization structure is obvious, the usage of electro-thermal is an reformation. In order to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction, we should use secondary energy instead of primary energy. (2)The electro-thermal has the most influence on black mental industry. So the adjustment of natural gas and electro-thermal utilization may has great influence on carbon emission. The energy efficiency of coal, electro-thermal and natural gas should be improved. Project Coal Oil Ferrous Metals Mining and Dressing Coal Mining and Dressing Black Metal Smelting and Rolling Processing Industry Non-ferrous Metal Smelting and Rolling Processing Industry Metal Product Industry The grey correlation degree of carbon intensity and economic scale electrothermal 0.622 0.718 0.777 --- --- 0.648 0.621 --- natural gas 0.571 0.505 0.631 0.585 0.556 0.761 0.707 0.557 0.781 0.574 0.581 0.631
The Backcasting of Key Industries Low-carbon Policies in Tianjin Backcasting of Energy Guide Policy (3)Coal is very important for metal product industry s development,so the usage of clean energy is extremely urgent. The natural gas has became the second biggest energy. Oil and electrothermal has the same influence on carbon emission per unit of GDP. So manufacture industry should eliminate the backward energy gradually. Project Coal Oil Ferrous Metals Mining and Dressing Coal Mining and Dressing Black Metal Smelting and Rolling Processing Industry Non-ferrous Metal Smelting and Rolling Processing Industry Metal Product Industry The grey correlation degree of carbon intensity and economic scale electrothermal 0.622 0.718 0.777 --- --- 0.648 0.621 --- natural gas 0.571 0.505 0.631 0.585 0.556 0.761 0.707 0.557 0.781 0.574 0.581 0.631
Petrochemical industry, Figure: carbon emission and carbon emission per unit of GDP of petrochemical sub-sector industries 石化分行业碳生产率 (t/ 万元 GDP) 1.0x10 0 8.0x10-1 6.0x10-1 4.0x10-1 2.0x10-1 石油和天然气开采业石油加工炼焦及核燃料加工业化学纤维制造业 石化分行业历年碳生产总量 (t) 2x10 6 1x10 6 石油和天然气开采业石油加工炼焦及核燃料加工业化学纤维制造业 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 32
,, 石化分行业从业人数现状与预测 ( 人 ) 1.4x10 5 1.2x10 5 1.0x10 5 8.0x10 4 6.0x10 4 4.0x10 4 2.0x10 4 石油和天然气开采业石油加工炼焦及核燃料加工业化学纤维制造业 基准值 Petrochemical industry Figure1: current situation and forecast of petrochemical industries employee number 预测值 0.0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 ( 万元 ) 石化行业 GDP 基准值与十年预测值 1.0x10 8 8.0x10 7 6.0x10 7 4.0x10 7 2.0x10 7 Figure2: GDP and forecast of petrochemical industries 0.0 石油和天然气开采业石油加工炼焦及核燃料加工业化学纤维制造业 基准值 预测值 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Carbon emission per unit GDP and other factors association degree of petrochemical industries in Tianjin Economy and scale GDP employees number Energy structure coal oil electrothermal natural gas Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction + + + + + --- Oil processing and coking and nuclear +++ + ++ + +++ ++++ fuel processing industry 33 Chemical Fiber Manufacturing ++ +++ ++ +++ ++ ---
Chemical industry, Figure1 Carbon emission of chemical industry in these years Figure2 Carbon emissions per unit of GDP of chemical industry 化工分行业历年碳生产总量 (t) 3.5x10 6 3.0x10 6 2.5x10 6 2.0x10 6 1.5x10 6 1.0x10 6 5.0x10 5 化学原料及化学制品制造业医药制造业 (t/ 万元 GDP) 化工行业历年碳生产率 8.0x10-1 7.0x10-1 6.0x10-1 5.0x10-1 4.0x10-1 3.0x10-1 2.0x10-1 1.0x10-1 化学原料及化学制品制造业医药制造业 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 34
, 行业 ( 万元 ) 6x10 7 5x10 7 G D P 基准值与预测值 4x10 7 3x10 7 2x10 7 1x10 7 Figure1: GDP and forecast of chemical industry in ten years 化学原料及化学制品制造业医药制造业 基准值 预测值 Chemical industry Figure2: current situation and forecast of petrochemical industries employee number 行业从业总人数基准值与预测值 ( 人 ) 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 化学原料及化学制品制造业医药制造业 基准值 预测值 0 35,000 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 30,000 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Carbon emission per unit GDP and other factors association degree of chemical industries in Tianjin Economy and scale GDP employees number Energy structure coal oil electrothermal Chemical raw materials and chemical products + --- + +++ + + manufacturing Medicine Manufacturing ++ +++ ++ + + ++ 35 natural gas
Building materials industry, Figure: carbon emission load and carbon emission per unit of GDP 建材行业历年碳生产总量 (t) 7x10 5 6x10 5 5x10 5 4x10 5 3x10 5 2x10 5 1x10 5 非金属矿物制品业非金属矿采选业 建材分行业历年碳生产率 (t/ 万元 GDP) 1.2x10 0 1.0x10 0 8.0x10-1 6.0x10-1 4.0x10-1 2.0x10-1 非金属矿物制品业非金属矿采选业 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 36
, ( 万元 GDP) 建材分行业 2.0x10 7 1.8x10 7 1.6x10 7 1.4x10 7 1.2x10 7 1.0x10 7 8.0x10 6 6.0x10 6 4.0x10 6 2.0x10 6 0.0 G D P 基准值与预测值 非金属矿采选业非金属矿物制品业 基准值 Building materials industry Figure1: GDP and forecast of building materials industry in ten years 预测值 建材分行业从业人数基准值与预测值 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Figure2: current situation and forecast of building materials industries employee number ( 人 ) 非金属矿采选业非金属矿物制品业 基准值 预测值, 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Carbon emission per unit GDP and other factors association degree of building materials industry in Tianjin Economy and scale Energy structure GDP employees number coal oil electrothermal natural gas Manufacture of Non-metallic Mineral ++ Products ++ + ++ ++ + Nonmetal Minerals Mining and Dressing + + + + + --- 37
Mechanical industry, Figure: carbon emission load and carbon emission per unit of GDP 机械分行业历年碳生产总量 (t) 4.0x10 5 3.5x10 5 3.0x10 5 2.5x10 5 2.0x10 5 1.5x10 5 1.0x10 5 5.0x10 4 仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业通用设备制造业专用设备制造业交通运输设备制造业电气机械及器材制造业 机械分行业历年碳生产率 (t/ 万元 GDP) 8.0x10-2 7.0x10-2 6.0x10-2 5.0x10-2 4.0x10-2 3.0x10-2 2.0x10-2 1.0x10-2 仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业通用设备制造业专用设备制造业交通运输设备制造业电气机械及器材制造业 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 38
( 万元 ), 机械分行业, 1.6x10 8 1.4x10 8 1.2x10 8 1.0x10 8 8.0x10 7 6.0x10 7 4.0x10 7 2.0x10 7 0.0 G D P 基准值与预测值 通用设备制造业专用设备制造业交通运输设备制造业电气机械及器材制造业仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业 基准值 预测值 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Mechanical industry Figure: current situation and forecast of GDP and employee number 机械分行业从业人数基准值与预测值 ( 人 ) 400,000 200,000 0 通用设备制造业专用设备制造业交通运输设备制造业电气机械及器材制造业仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业 基准值 预测值 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Carbon emission per unit GDP and other factors association degree of mechanical industry in Tianjin Economy and scale GDP employees number Energy structure coal oil Electrothermal Instruments and Cultural and office Goods Manufacturing Industry + + + + + --- Ordinary Machinery Industry + + +++ ++ + +++ Special Purpose Equipment Manufacturing ++ ++ ++ +++ ++ ++ Transportation Equipment Manufacturing Industry + ++ ++ + + + Electric Equipment and Machinery + + + ++ + + natural gas 39
Light industry, Figure: carbon emission load and carbon emission per unit of GDP 五项轻工业历年碳生产总量 (t) 3.0x10 5 2.5x10 5 2.0x10 5 1.5x10 5 1.0x10 5 5.0x10 4 农副食品加工业食品制造业饮料制造业烟草制品业造纸及纸制品业 五项轻工业历年碳生产率 (t/ 万元 GDP) 3.5x10-1 3.0x10-1 2.5x10-1 2.0x10-1 1.5x10-1 1.0x10-1 5.0x10-2 农副食品加工业食品制造业饮料制造业烟草制品业造纸及纸制品业 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 40
Light industry, 五项轻工业, ( 万元 ) 1.4x10 8 1.2x10 8 1.0x10 8 8.0x10 7 6.0x10 7 4.0x10 7 2.0x10 7 0.0 G D P 基准值与预测值 Figure: current situation and forecast of GDP and employee number 农副食品加工业食品制造业饮料制造业烟草制品业造纸及纸制品业 基准值 预测值 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 五项轻工业从业人数预测值与基准值 ( 人 ) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 农副食品加工业食品制造业饮料制造业烟草制品业造纸及纸制品业 基准值 预测值 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Carbon emission per unit GDP and other factors association degree of light industry in Tianjin Economy and scale Energy structure GDP employees number coal oil Electrothermal natural gas Food Processing Industry + --- + ++ + ++ Food Manufacturing +++ ++ ++ + +++ + Beverage Manufacturing + ++ + ++ ++ ++ Tobacco Manufacturing + --- --- + Paper & Paper Products ++ ++ + ++ + ++ 41
Textile industry, Figure: carbon emission load and carbon emission per unit of GDP (t) 2.5x10 5 纺织业纺织服装鞋帽制造业 (t/ 万元 GDP) 3.5x10-1 纺织业纺织服装鞋帽制造业 纺织分行业历年碳生产总量 2.0x10 5 1.5x10 5 1.0x10 5 5.0x10 4 纺织分行业历年碳生产率 3.0x10-1 2.5x10-1 2.0x10-1 1.5x10-1 1.0x10-1 5.0x10-2 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 42
, 纺织分行业历年, ( 万元 ) 4.0x10 7 3.5x10 7 3.0x10 7 2.5x10 7 2.0x10 7 1.5x10 7 1.0x10 7 5.0x10 6 0.0 G D P 基准值与预测值 纺织业纺织服装鞋帽制造业 基准值 预测值 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Textile industry Figure: current situation and forecast of GDP and employee number 纺织分行业从业人数基准值与预测值 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 ( 人 ) 纺织业纺织服装鞋帽制造业 基准值 预测值 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Carbon emission per unit GDP and other factors association degree of textile industry in Tianjin Economy and scale GDP employees number Energy structure coal oil Electrothermal natural gas Textile industry ++ + ++ ++ ++ +++ Textile clothing, shoes and hats +++ ++ ++ ++ ++ + manufacturing 43
Electronic information industry, Figure: carbon emission load and carbon emission per unit of GDP (t) 2.5x10 5 电子信息行业 (t/ 万元 GDP) 电子信息行业 电子信息行业历年碳生产总量 2.0x10 5 1.5x10 5 1.0x10 5 5.0x10 4 电子信息行业历年碳生产率 1.4x10-2 1.2x10-2 1.0x10-2 8.0x10-3 6.0x10-3 4.0x10-3 2.0x10-3 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 44
Electronic information industry Figure: current situation and forecast of employee number 260,000 ( 人 ) 通信设备计算机及其他电子设备制造业, 电子信息行业从业人数基准值与预测值 240,000 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 基准值 预测值, 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Carbon emission per unit GDP and other factors association degree of electronic information industry in Tianjin Communication equipment, computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing Economy and scale GDP employees number Energy structure coal oil Electrothermal ++ + +++ --- + + natural gas 45
4. Conclusion 46
Conclusion The advantage of Guass is the accessibility of the target and the lower risk ; The Logistic model has high investment, high emission reduction, and high risk. But once succeed it will earn more. The energy conservation and emission reduction of Tianjin key business is long-term task. The investment, risk, and reduction should be taken into account. Guass reduction model has comparative advantage, when consider stability. 47
Conclusion It is not sustainable that only emphasis external migration of high-carbon industries. If the manufacture form industry monopoly in one area, this situation can also further promote utilization rate of energy consumption, reduce the carbon emission per unit GDP, besides the high growth of GDP. And it can improve the economic shortage by taking fictitious economy model, and use carbon finance method to reach the emission reduction goal 48
Conclusion Making decisions according to the time, place, industry, business, and enterprise; the urban industry should improve the international communication, take the advantage of district, and improve the industry structure, etc.; promoting the localization and domestication of low-carbon technology; developing the low-carbon technologies according to the superiority of one district. 49
Thanks! 50