2011 5 26 ( 107 SOUTH CHINA POPULATION No.5 2011 Vol. 26 General No. 107 * (, 430073 [ ] 5490 (TFR, 1985, TFR,, 1985-2008 ; 2009-2014, 2015 Logit, : [ ] ; ; ; Logit [] C92-05 [] A [ ] 1004-1613 (2011 05-0034-09 (TFR,,, :,, Coale- Trussell (1983, Bongaarts (2001 Brass (2001 (2002 (2006 20 (2009 Gaussian (2009 (, TFR=1+ (S / 100,, S *[ ] 2011-08-28 [ ] (1965-,,,, : (1980-,,, : 34
(2005 (2006, (2006 (2007 109 20, (2010 90,,,,,, 5490 2009 2 2010 1 ( (ASFR ASFR : x, B x x, P f x x (1 (2 4,, 1 1985-1995 1996-2008, 2 1 :, 1 2, 20-29, 1985-1995 80.88%, 1995-2008 82.84%,, : 35 (3
2011 5 3 O< 2,, 20-24 (51.15% (41.70%, (24 (23,, (20 (35 ( (35 1 : (4, ω 1 ω 2 (15 (49 (4 1985-2008, 3 1992 (2.1 25, 1987 ( 3.36 (, 1998, ( :, 1 15-49, 35 36
2 95% 20-34, 20-34, 3,,,,,,,, ( : (5 M n n (, Q x x, (5,, 2009 4 4, 1985, 2000 (TFR, (2000 (1997, 37
2011 5 20-34, 5 20-34, TFR (1997,, (6, AR (1 : y t, χ 1t, χ 2t 20-34 : (6 (7, AR (1 0.05, (X 1t 20-34 (X 2t (y t, 1% 1.109%; 20-34 1% 0.854%, 1985-2008, 20-34 (, 80, 90,,,, 3 2008,, 2008 2003-2007 ( 1 2009-2013 6 (M n ( (YB n (%, 2009 787824 4.34 2010 809401 4.44 2011 816068 4.51 : 2012 808978 4.56, M n n 2013 785468 4.53 2014 751640 4.43 2015 710972 4.26, n 2016 663279 4.06 1 2017 2018 612814 564292 3.82 3.63 38 1, 2009-2014
2015, 2015 2014, 3.02%, 1.22% ; 2016 2015, 3.38%, 1.24% ; 2017 2016, 3.04%, 1.27% ; 2018 2017, 4.27%, 1.36% 2015, (2006,, 2015 30,,, Logit ( 2, 0 1, 0 1 0, 2 1, Logit : (Forward: LR ( 2 : : :, 15 2.542 ;, ; 39
2011 5 2 Logit ( N=5203 ( ( -2 Log likelihood Nagelkerke R Square ( - 3349.238 a.451 : * P<0.10; ** P<0.05; *** P<0.01 B -.250 ** -.413 ** -1.118 ***.933 *** 60-1.548 *** 70-2.987 *** (50 80-4.895 ***.052,.323 -.117 (.782 -.317.774 **.386,.718 **.530 (.549 *.556 * -.219 ( ( ( (.210 -.372 *** -.447 ** -.346 **.766 *** 1.972 *** -.274 ** -.204 *.266 Cox & Snell R2 Exp(B.779.662.327 2.542.213.050.007 1.054 1.382.890 2.186.728 2.168 1.471 2.050 1.699 1.731 1.744.804 1.234.689.640.707 2.151 7.186.760.816 1.305.614 84.6%,,,,,, 40
Logit P 0.372 0.346 ;,,, 5490 1985,,, 1998,, 2014, 2015, Logit,,,, [ ] [1] Coale A. J, Demeny P, Vaughan B. Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations [M]. New York: Academic Press, 1983. [2] Kohler H. P, Philipov D. Variance effects in the Bongaarts-Feeney Formula[J], Demography, 2001, 38(1. [3] Zeng Y, Land K. C. A sensitivity analysis of the Bongaarts-Feeney method for adjusting bias in observed period total fertility rates[j]. Demography, 2001, 38(1. [3]. [J],,2002(3. [4],. [J].,2006(4. [7]. [J].,2009(5. [8]. [J].,2009(8. [9],,. [J].,2005(3. [10],. [J].,2009(5. 41
2011 5 [11],,. [J],,2007(6. [12],. [J].,2010(4. [13],. [J].,2010(2. [14]. [M]. :,2006. [15],. : [J].,1999(3. [16]. [J].,2011(3. An Analysis of the Total Fertility Rate Trend and Its Influencing Factors: A Survey in Erzhou, Huangshi and Xiantao in Hubei Province XU Yingmei, Qu Lingyun School of Statistics and Mathematics, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, Hubei Abstract: Based on the data from a survey with 5490 effective responses in 3 areas of Hubei province, the paper evaluates the total fertility rate ( TFR in Hubei and finds that the main cause for the decline of age -specific fertility rates since 1985 is the strict One-child policy while the TFR decline has not much to do with the delayed child bearing behaviors. The TFR in Hubei Province shows as a curve with first rapid decrease and then slight increase. The TFR change synchronizes the policy fertility regardless of the proportion of high fertility women of childbearing age. The calculation and analysis of the population born in 1985-2008 further show the total births in the period is mainly determined by TFR rather than by the distribution of women of childbearing age and the trend extrapolation shows that total births of Hubei province in 2009-2014 is to be stable in the present scale while the turning point seems to be in 2015 when the births tender to decline. Logit model analysis shows that the factors significantly affecting actual fertility level are education, Hukou, generation, the job status of wife and husband, policy. Key words: Total fertility rate; Age-specific fertility; General fertility rate; Logit model!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ( 64 Dynamic Genealogy of Health: A New Approach to the Health Study of the Involuntary Migrants LI Fajun Research Center for Health and Human Development, Department of Anthropology, School of Sociology and Anthropology, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong Abstract: The existing studies on the definitions, classifications and policy tropisms of the involuntary resettlement lack in description of health expectation of the involuntary migrants and few shed lights on the group's health disequilibrium. These two problems cause the total lack of the discussion of the compensation for the health disequilibrium of the involuntary migrants. This should be a new approach to the study of the involuntary settlement. The paper puts forward a concept of Dynamic Genealogy of Health (DGH and develops a method accordingly. This new concept and method can be a new approach in the study of involuntary settlement and contributes especially to the health and compensation study of the involuntary settlement. Key words: Involuntary Migrants; Health Disequilibrium; Adaptability; Dynamic Genealogy of Health 42