1,2 1,3 (1., 100190; 2., 100052; 3., 100190),,, CPI ; ; ; [1] 2005 7 21 [2] [3] [4] Turnovsky [5] McGuirk [6] IMF 17 San [7] 2011-01-15 (70950002); (GX2011-1001Z), ;,, MANAGEMENT REVIEW Vol.24 No.0920123
Maxwell [8] GDP Lipschitz McDonald [9] ULC [10] HBS [11] [12] [13] BIS IMF JP JP 2009 4 8 2006-2009 VAR 1 2 3 1 2 [5] 1 W i = xi n Σx i k=1 1 4 Vol.24 No.092012
n x i i 2 W i = n x i +m i x i +m i k=1 2 n x i i m i i 3 i W i = m c W m i + x c W x i 3 x c +m c x c +m c m c x c W m i W x i W i i W m i =m i /m c 4 4 m i i W m i i W x i =W bx i +W tx i W bx i = xi y i x c y i + h c xh i 5 W tx i = h j xk c xk i x c y k + h c x k h y i i xh i k i 5 W bx i i i y i i W tx i k i IMF BIS 3 n I t =I t-1 仪 e i t i = 1 w i t-1 e i t-1 6 e w n I I 0 =100 GDP CPI PPI ULC EI t =EI t-1 仪 e i n i = 1 t P 0 t /P i t w i t-1 e i t-1 P 0 t-1 /P i t-1 P 0 t t P i t i t 7 MANAGEMENT REVIEW Vol.24 No.0920125
ULC GDP CPI PPI CPI PPI IMF CPI 1 2006-2009 IMF IMF 2009 12017 2213 17% 10 10 60% 1309 16% 10 10 60% 16 1 2 2 / 2009 50% 60% 2 2009 16.86% 2533.96 66.09% 553.79 [14 15] 1 0.13 3 27% 18% / 963.7 581.8 3 ( ) A B B A IMF INS ( ) 4 1 2008 2011 1 1 2 http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/home/index.jsp 3 Annual Review of Hong Kong External Merchandise Trade 2009, Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 4 6 Vol.24 No.092012
( ) ( ) INS ( ) 1 1 2009 / 2 10 10 10 2009 2000 2 1 10 2 43.12% 34.08% 32.05% 36.26% 28.52% 27.11% 31.04% 29.06% 28.67% 26.10% 24.32% 24.53% 17.35% 22.42% 23.70% 14.59% 18.76% 20.10% 8.49% 14.44% 15.58% 7.14% 12.09% 12.49% 4.90% 3.66% 3.51% 3.71% 4.07% 3.38% 3.87% 3.50% 3.43% 3.44% 5.08% 5.45% > > > 3 2009 2008 2007 2006 27.11% 27.56% 27.99% 29.32% 24.53% 23.69% 23.16% 21.83% 20.10% 20.80% 21.03% 22.28% > > > 2006-2009 12.49% 12.51% 13.15% 13.28% 3.51% 3.65% 3.81% 3.34% > > > 3.38% 3.28% 3.63% > 3.43% 3.86% 3.27% 3.72% 2.62% > 5.45% 4.65% 3.97% 3.62% MANAGEMENT REVIEW Vol.24 No.0920127
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MANAGEMENT REVIEW Vol.24 No.0920129
Research of RMB Exchange Rate Index Guo Kun 1,2 and Cheng Siwei 1,2 1.Research Center on Fictitious Economics and Data Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190; 2.China Finance Corporation, Beijing 100052; 3.School of Management of Graduate University, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 AbstractAn exchange rate index is a weighted average of a currency against a basket of other currencies. It can reflect the synthesized competitive power of a currency more comprehensively compared with traditional bilateral ones. Based on the trade data of 2009, the currency basket of RMB is determined considering the trade inside Euro zone, the re-export business of Hong Kong and so on. Then the nominal and real effective exchange rate index are established respectively using the weight including trade competition in third-party market. Furthermore, it is found that the RMB exchange rate index is strongly related to several macro-economic variables of China, such as total trade volume, CPI and industrial added value. Key words: exchange rate index, re-export, competitive power weight, currency basket 10 Vol.24 No.092012