42 3 2018 5 Vol. 42 No. 3 May 2018 38 Population Research 2014 60 3% ~ 4% 10% 60 + <3.5% 60 1 0. 172 3. 5% 60 + < 10% 60 0.243 60 + 10% 60 1 0.211 4 100028 The Inversion Pattern of Urban and Rural Ageing Universality and Periodicity Lin Bao Abstract Based on the urban-rural data by age and sex released by the United Nations in 2014 It is found that the phenomenon of urban-rural inversion of population ageing is universal.there are clear developmental stages for the differences between urban and rural population ageing with two turning points when the proportion of population aged 60 + reaches 3% ~ 4% and 10%.In the first stage the proportion of population aged 60 + is less than 3.5% the urban-rural difference increases by 0.172 percentage for every percentage increase of population aged 60 and over in the total population.in the second stage the proportion of population aged 60 + is between 3.5% and 10% the urban-rural difference is reduced by 0.243 percentage for every percentage increase of population aged 60 and over in the total population.in the third stage the urbanrural difference increases by 0.211 percentage for every percentage increase of population aged 60 and over in the total population.combined with theoretical analyses this paper proposes a revised urban-rural differences transition model explaining the inversion pattern of urban-rural ageing in most of the world s countries and regions. Keywords Population Ageing Urban-Rural Differences Urban-Rural Inversion Author Lin Bao is Professor Institute of Population and Labor Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Email linbao@ cass.org.cn.
3 39 2015 2010 2012 2014 2017 2010 United Nations 2014 1980 ~ 2015 1980 ~ 2015 1 2010 2010 50% 2010
40 42 1.1 2015 100 100% 157 124 60 78.98% 16.61 3 10 4 5 ~ 10 117 0 ~ 5 33 21.02% 18.71 0 ~ 5 65 124 2015 1980 ~ 2015 1256 157 8 60 1003 79.86% 1 65 1014 80.73% 1980 ~ 2015 Table 1 1 1980~ 2015 60 Urban-Rural Differences of the Proportion of Population Aged 60 and Over in World s Countries 1980-2015 D % % D<-5 5 0.4 0.4-5 D 0 248 19.7 20.1 0<D<5 932 74.2 94.3 5 D<10 43 3.4 97.8 D 10 28 2.2 100.0 1256 100 60 60 D United Nations 2014.Urban and Rural Population by Age and Sex 1980-2015.http / /www.un.org /en /development /desa /population /publications /dataset /urban / urbanandruralpopulationbyageandsex.shtml 2015 1980 ~ 2015 1.2 1980 ~ 2015
3 41 60 2 65 1.5 60 0.65 65 0. 5 1995 60 1.2 65 0.8 2 Table 2 2 Urban and Rural Population Ageing in Countries at Different Development Level 60 + % 65 + % 1980 14.8 17.3 6.0 6.6 4.1 5.3 11.0 13.2 3.9 4.3 2.5 3.3 1985 15.7 18.4 6.3 6.8 4.1 5.3 11.1 13.1 4.1 4.4 2.5 3.3 1990 16.8 20.0 6.5 7.1 4.1 5.4 11.9 14.2 4.2 4.6 2.5 3.4 1995 17.5 20.8 7.3 7.2 4.2 5.5 12.9 15.4 4.8 4.7 2.6 3.5 2000 18.6 22.0 7.3 7.9 4.2 5.5 13.6 16.3 4.9 5.3 2.6 3.6 2005 19.5 22.3 7.8 8.3 4.2 5.6 14.7 17.1 5.3 5.6 2.6 3.6 2010 21.3 23.5 8.4 9.0 4.3 5.7 15.6 17.5 5.6 6.0 2.7 3.8 2015 23.2 25.3 9.7 9.9 4.5 6.0 17.1 18.6 6.3 6.4 2.8 3.9 1 2010 2 2010
42 42 United Nations 2014 1980 ~ 2015 60 ±15 1980 ~ 2015 60 60 0.934 65 0.928 2015 0.964 0.959 1980 ~ 2015 60 0.222 60-0.218 65 0.336-0.203 60 5 0 5 6 25% 10 10% ~ 20% 20% 60 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 10% 10% 10% 60 65 10% 3 60 5% 60 10% 10% 5% 0 ~ 10% 0 ~ 10% 60 3% ~ 4% 3% 4% 5% 6% 1 3% 4% 5% 5% 3% 4% 4 60 3% ~ 4% 3% 4% 1 3% 6% 7% ~ 9%
3 43 Table 3 3 1980~ 2015 Correlation Coefficients between Population Ageing Level and Its Urban-rural Difference in Different Ageing Stages 1980-2015 60 + 60 + 65 + 60 + 65 + 5% 5% 0.193 ** 0.172 ** 0.091 0.065 5% 0.248 ** 0.250 ** -0.071 * -0.083 * 10% 10% -0.160 ** -0.122 ** -0.310 ** -0.293 ** 10% 0.130 ** 0.222 ** -0.003 0.025 15% 15% 0.031 0.082 * -0.250 ** -0.234 ** 15% 0.032 0.011-0.081-0.126 * 20% 20% 0.217 ** 0.239 ** -0.204 ** -0.197 ** 20% 0.107 0.103 0.030 0.008 25% 25% 0.194 ** 0.209 ** -0.223 ** -0.217 ** 25% 0.069 0.018-0.038-0.114 * α = 0.05 ** α = 0.01 1 4 1980~ 2015 60 10% Table 4 Correlation Coefficients between Population Ageing Level and Its Urban-Rural Difference When Proportion of Population 60 + is under 10% 1980-2015 60 + 60 + 65 + 60 + 65 + 3% 3% 0.719 ** 0.684 ** 0.467 * 0.374 3% ~ 10% -0.239 ** -0.187 ** -0.362 ** -0.335 ** 4% 4% 0.506 ** 0.559 ** 0.367 ** 0.385 ** 4% ~ 10% -0.256 ** -0.204 ** -0.376 ** -0.350 ** 5% 5% 0.193 ** 0.172 ** 0.091 0.065 5% ~ 10% -0.141 ** -0.099 * -0.278 ** -0.264 ** 6% 6% 0.020 0.020 0.059 0.082 6% ~ 10% -0.082-0.082-0.061-0.068 * α = 0.05 ** α = 0.01 1
44 42 1980 ~ 2015 3% ~ 4% 60 10% 60 10% 3 r r = f 1 r t r u = f 2 r t D = r r -r u = f 1 r t -f 2 r t 1 2 3 r r r u r t f 1 f 2 D 1 2 f 1 f 2 United Nations 2014 1980 ~ 2015 ±15 3% ~ 4% 10% 60 3.5% 10% 3.1 1 2 60 60 60 5 1 60 60 2 60 60
3 45 R 2 0.952 0.972 60 60 1.112 60 0.986 1 60 + 60 + Figure 1 Scatter Plot on Relationship between the Proportion of Total Population Aged 60 + and the Proportion of Rural Population Aged 60 + 1 2 60 + 60 + Figure 2 Scatter Plot on Relationship between the Proportion of Total Population Aged 60 + and the Proportion of Urban Population Aged 60 + 1
46 42 5 Table 5 Regression Analysis on the Relationship between Total Population Ageing Level and Urban and Rural Population Ageing Level 1 2 60 + 60 + -0.280 *** -0.557 *** 60+ 1.112 *** 0.986 *** R 2 0.952 0.972 F 2.446 10 4 4.316 10 4 N 1240 1240 *** α = 0.001 1 1 2 3 r r = -0.280+1.112r t r u = -0.557+0.986r t 4 5 D = r r -r u = -0.280+1.112r t +0.557-0.986r t D = 0.277+0.126r t 6 60 0.126 3.2 60 3% ~ 4% 10% 60 3.5% 10% 3.5% 3.5% ~ 10% 3 3 6 3 4 5 60 3 3 60 3.5% 1 60 1.009 4 60 3.5% 10% 1 60 0.965 5 60 10% 1 60 1.186 6 7 8 60 3 6 60 3.5% 1 60 0.837 7 60 3.5% 10% 1 60 1.208 8 60 10% 1 60 0.975
3 47 Table 6 6 Segmental Regression Analysis on the Relationship between Total Population Ageing Level and Urban and Rural Population Ageing Level 60 + 60 + 3 4 5 6 7 8 0.265 * 0.587 *** -1.627 ** 0.200-1.855 *** -0.436 60 + <3.5% 1.009 *** 0.837 *** 60 + 3.5% ~ 10% 0.965 *** 1.208 *** 60 + 10% 1.186 *** 0.975 *** R 2 0.932 0.836 0.801 0.852 0.822 0.912 F 519.6 4006 1675 220.0 3619 4305 N 38 784 417 38 784 417 * α = 0.05 ** α = 0.01 *** α = 0.001 1 1 2 3 { 0.265+1.009r t 60 <3.5% r r = 0.587+0.965r t 3.5% 60 <10% -1.627+1.186r t 60 10% 7 { 0.200+0.837r t 60 <3.5% r u = -1.855+1.208r t 3.5% 60 <10% -0.436+0.975r t 60 10% 8 { 0.065+0.172r t 60 <3.5% D = 2.442-0.243r t 3.5% 60 <10% -1.191+0.211r t 60 10% 9 9 3 60 3.5% 1 0.172 60 3.5% 10% 0.243 3 60 10% 1 0.211 3 4
48 42 2000 2014 2014 60 10% United Nations 2014 0.545 1980 ~ 2015 32 60 9% ~ 11% 57.40%22 30% ~ 70%
3 49 20% 4 60 3% ~ 4% 60 10% 5 2010 United Nations 2014 80% 1980 ~ 2015 60 3% ~ 4% 60 10% 2010 4 60 1 0.172 60 0.243 60 1 0.211 3 1980 ~ 2015 60 1% 33% 60
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