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* 40 4 2016 7 Vol. 40 No. 4 July 2016 35 Population Research 2014 1 2016 2016 9101. 0 40 49. 6% 2017 ~ 2021 1719. 5 160 ~ 470 100872 Accumulated Couples and Extra Births under the Universal Tw o-child Policy Zhai Zhenw u Li Long Chen Jiaju Abstract The numbers of accumulated couples and their extra births are major concerns after implementing the universal two-child policy.using data from the 2014 national population sampling survey this paper employing a population group-component calculation and projection method provides estimates of the size of extra births that would be influenced by the two-child policy after computing the amount of accumulated couples in 2016.The results show that the number of target population under the two-child policy would be at around 91 million in 2016 among which women at age 40 and above account for 49.6%.Under medium fertility scenario the size of extra births would reach around 17 million in 2017-2021 with an annual average number of 1.6-4.7 million.although the number of accumulated couples subject to the two-child policy is large the size of their extra births would be relatively small implying that China would have a smooth transition to the two-child policy. Keyw ords Universal Two-child Policy Accumulated Couples Extra Births Population Group-component Calculation and Projection Method Authors Zhai Zhenwu is Professor Center for Population and Development Studies Renmin University of China Li Long and Chen Jiaju are PhD Candidates Center for Population and Development Studies Renmin University of China Beijing 100872.Email zhaizw@ ruc.edu.cn * 15ZDC036 71490731

36 40 1980 1980 2010 2004 ~ 2006 300 30 1. 8 2007 1. 8 2008 2011 2013 2013 2016 2013 1 2016 3 1 2 3 4 15 ~ 49 1 2014 2014 2016

4 37 2 2014 1 1 11 1 0 2014 112. 4 0. 82 1 2014 1 11. 8 0. 82 2 2014 1. 435 6055. 6 42. 2% 8287. 3 57. 8% 15 ~ 39 8859. 9 61. 8% 40 ~ 49 5483. 0 38. 2% 2014 1 2016 2010 2016 2 6 1 2 2005 1% 2010 2010 2014 1 2005 2016 2010 2014 1 2016

38 40 1 2014 1 3 1. 435 1 2014 1 2014 2014 2014 1 2014 2 2014 2014 2014 2016 3. 1 1984 31 19 6 6 6 37. 5% 52. 8% 9. 6% 2014 2014 8287. 3 6 6 1 15 ~ 50 4

4 39 1 Figure 1 1 Deduction of the Number of Target Population under the One-and-A-Half Child Policy and Two-Child Policy in Rural Area 2014 1 2014 1 5376. 8 2910. 6 6 245. 2 25 6 19 5131. 6 6 627. 2 25 2283. 4 5758. 7 2 23 ~ 35 8287. 3-2910. 6 + 6 627. 2-6 245. 2 = 2014 5758. 7

40 40 Figure 2 2 Rural Population Pyramid of Target Population under the One-and-A-Half Child Policy and Two-child Policy 3. 2 21 20 2011 2014 1 6 3 Figure 3 3 Deduction of the Number of Target Population under the Two-Child Policy for Only-Child Parents

4 41 2014 1 1 1357. 0 400 - - = 2014 5208. 8 4 27 ~ 37 Figure 4 4 Urban Population Pyramid of Number of Target Population under the Two-Child Policy for Only-Child Parents 2014 - - = 2014 4848. 5 5 23 ~ 32 1 2014 1 2014 1

42 40 Figure 5 5 Rural Population Pyramid of Target Population under the Two-Child Policy for Only-Child Parents 2014 1. 006 51. 8% 48. 2% 1. 435 2014 2528. 5 245. 2 2283. 3 400 1357. 0 6 6 2014 Figure 6 National Population Pyramid of Target Population under the Universal Two-Child Policy in 2014

4 43 3. 3 2014 2016 2014 2016 2014 2016 2016 2014 2014 48 49 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2014 2014 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 = 2014 1 2015 2016 2013 2013 2014 2015 2015 1. 5 ~ 1. 6 2015 2016 2014 15 ~ 49 3. 678 1. 108 2. 569 13 14 1317. 9 330. 4 987. 5 2016 2015 48 49 2347. 7 676. 6 1671. 1 2016 2015 2010 1 0. 69 0. 68

44 40 2015 2016 2010 1 2014 1 15. 8% 41. 6% 2015 2016 2014 270 710 0. 86 0. 94 2015 2016 1995. 6 546. 0 27. 4% 1449. 6 72. 6% 2015 2016 1 2014 1 30. 5% 100% 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 577. 1 2 2014 1 1 2015 2016 3 1 148. 6 265. 7

4 45 2015 2016 2 /3 25% 1 75% 2015 2016 2 /3 2015 2016 2 /3 75% 2015 2016 170. 6 2015 2016 79. 2 2016 1. 036 7 40 ~ 49 15 ~ 25 26 ~ 39 15 ~ 39 5586. 4 53. 9% 40 ~ 49 4768. 7 46. 1% 7 2016 Figure 7 National Population Pyramid of Target Population under the Universal Two-Child Policy in 2016 5082. 1 49. 1% 5273. 0 50. 9% 8 30 1 50% 2015 2016

46 40 8 2016 Figure 8 Urban and Rural Population Pyramid of Target Population under the Universal Two-Child Policy in 2016 3. 4 1 2010 0 ~ 9 1180 2005 1% 63% 740. 1 2005 228. 4 511. 7 2016 1. 036 740. 1 9615. 0 3. 5 2013 15 2. 7% 272. 7 9615. 0 272. 7 9342. 3 3. 6 1

4 47 9 2 40 40 40 5% 5% 241. 3 2014 2016 9101. 0 2016 39 4584. 0 50. 4% 40 4517. 1 49. 6% 1 1 2016 Table 1 Number of Target Population under the Universal Two-Child Policy by Age in 2016 2016 % 15 ~ 19 22. 3 0. 2 20 ~ 24 441. 6 4. 9 25 ~ 29 1496. 9 16. 4 30 ~ 34 1331. 6 14. 6 35 ~ 39 1291. 7 14. 2 40 ~ 44 2161. 4 23. 7 45 ~ 49 2355. 6 25. 9 9101. 0 100. 0 4 2014 1

48 40 9 2017 ~ 2021 2541. 6 28% 39 2016 2017 ~ 2021 2030. 8 79. 9% 44% 5% 5% 33% 5% 23% 2017 ~ 2021 2965. 2 2118. 0 Figure 9 9 Age Pattern of Women Having One Child and Wanting a Second One from Families in Which Either Parent Is an Only Child 10% 10% 2017 ~ 2021 2157. 8 1719. 5 1293. 8 431. 6 343. 9 258. 8 2014 1 20. 3% 25. 0% 22. 4% 19. 9% 12. 3% 2017 ~ 2021 210 ~ 570 160 ~ 470 110 ~ 360 2

4 49 Table 2 2 Number of Annual Extra Births under Different Fertility Scenarios 2017 425. 2 339. 9 253. 2 2018 569. 5 463. 8 357. 6 2019 498. 2 402. 8 307. 7 2020 452. 9 352. 8 262. 5 2021 212. 1 160. 2 112. 8 2157. 8 1719. 5 1293. 8 1700 2300 1700 2200 2017 ~ 2021 2109. 9 2188. 6 2077. 3 1935. 8 1689. 1 1600 2100 2300 3 20 90 10 Table 3 3 Number of Annual Births under Different Fertility Scenarios 2017 1770. 0 2195. 1 2109. 9 2023. 2 2018 1724. 8 2294. 3 2188. 6 2082. 4 2019 1674. 5 2172. 7 2077. 3 1982. 2 2020 1583. 0 2035. 9 1935. 8 1845. 5 2021 1528. 9 1740. 9 1689. 1 1641. 7 10 1950 ~ 2021 Figure 10 Number of Annual Births in China 1950 ~ 2021 1950 ~ 2014 2015 ~ 2021

50 40 5 1 2016 9101. 0 39 4584. 0 50. 4% 40 4517. 1 49. 6% 2 2017 ~ 2021 5 2541. 6 28% 3 2017 ~ 2021 2157. 8 1719. 5 1293. 8 431. 6 343. 9 258. 8 4 2014 1 2017 ~ 2021 160 ~ 470 2200 2300 2016 /References 1. 30. 2010 4 28-52 Editorial Department of Population Research. 2010. Commemoration of the 30 th Anniversary of Public Letter on the Control of China's Population Growth to All Communist Party Members and Youth League Members. Population Research 4 28-52. 2.. 2007 1 1-10 National Population Development Strategy Research Group. 2007. Report of the Research on the National Population Development Strategy. Population Research 1 1-10. 3.. 2014 6 3-15 Wang Peian. 2014. China's Family Planning Programme in a New Era. Population Research 6 3-15. 4. 2010. 2013 1 10-21 Cui Hongyan Xu Lan and Li Rui. 2013. An Evaluation of Data Accuracy of the 2010 Population Census of China. Population Research 1 10-21. 5. 2000. 2013 2 54-65 Yang Fan and Zhao Menghan. 2013. China's Fertility Level since 2000 a Reestimation. Population Research 2 54-65.

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