2010 4 :, (, 150080;, 210029) :,, :,,,,,,,,, : ; ; ; : F061. 2; F120. 3 : A : 1002-9753 (2010) 04-0050 - 12 Ana lysis on the Cause of Susta ined Growth of Ch inese Econom y: the Perspective of the Pa th of Technolog ica l Progress W E I Feng, FENG Shi - De ( Center of Productivity S tudy, Heilongjiang U niversity, Harbin 150080, China; School of Econom ic, N anjing A udit U niversity, N anjing 210029, China) Abstract:Based on the typ ical facts that sum up Chinaπs econom ic growth, we confirm that Chinaπs economy is able to catch up successfully and technological advances will be roughly on the path through the following three stages: im itation stage, from im itation to innovation transitional period and the innovation stage. The dynam ic analysis in this model shows that when certain conditions are not met, the steady - state point of the power system would be converged to im ita2 tion stage, so the country be therefore caught in the trap state of econom ic stagnation. If the government can distort do2 mestic p rices of p roduction factors and devaluate native currency to imp rove corporateπs p rofitability, it is extremely ef2 fective that for the countries caught in the trap out of econom ic stagnation, and to accelerate the growth rate of the catch - up country. If the advent of the transitional phase from im itation to innovation of China are com ing, the p romoting role to econom ic growth of im itation and FD Iwill be decreased, while the contribution of R & D for econom ic growth will be increased significantly. To maintain long - term stable econom ic growth, the government should reduce the distortions in : 2009-08 - 01 : 2010-04 - 01 : 2009(, : 09YJC790151) : 50 : (1979 - ),,,, :
: the economy, and take the power of making resources p rice returned to the market gradually. Key words: im itation; innovation; path of technological p rogress; Chinsπs econom ic growth, ( 2008) [ 1 ],,, 32. 9% 1981,35%, 40% 2007 51. 2% ( 2007) ( ), (1992 ),, 30% 40% [ 2 ], [ 3-5 ], Shan (2006),, Young Lau, [ 6 ], ; 2003-2008 GDP,, 1 2003-2007 GDP 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 418 510 517 515 613 518 618 513 518 613 419 614 510 514 712 315 910 713 812 717 711 613 415 511 418 215 319 312 219 212 018 211 113 217 216 411 513 419 319 318 : Global Market Information Da2 tabase ( GM ID ) http: / /www. portal. euromonitor. com /portal/ server. p t, : %, (2006) FD I,,, [ 8 ], Howitt Aghion (1992) [ 9 ] Ofer, G. (1987)( the pattern of extensive growth) [ 7 ] ( ) ( ) 299, 2005 6%, 413 ( http: / / jp. mofcom. gov. cn /column /p rint. shtm l/ jmxw /200506 /20050600108697),, (2007) 51
2010 4 Greenwood (1997) [ 10 ] Bernanke (2001) [ 11 ],,,, Barro (1997) [ 12 ],,,, [ 13-14 ],, Aghion & Howitt(1992) [ 9 ] Schumpeter,, Solow (2007), ( Solow) (Aghion & Howitt) Schumpet2 er, [ 17 ],,,, ;,,, Acemoglu, Zilibotti, & Aghion ( 2006 ) [ 18 ],, ;, 1965 1996 OECD ( OECD,, ),,,, (, ),, [ 15-16 ] ( low - barrier group) : Chile, Ghana, Hong Kong, India, Israel, Jamaica, Malaysia, N igeria, Pakistan, Peru, Sin2 gapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Tunisia, U ruguay, Zambia Zimbabwe; ( high - barrier group) A rgentina, Bo2 livia, B razil, Burkina Faso, Colombia, Dom inican Republic, Ecuador, Egyp t, Indonesia, Jordan, Kenya, Korea, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mexico, Morocco, Mozambique, the Philipp ines, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, and Venezuela 52
:,,,,,,,,, 2008 GDP,, 30,,,, :,, 19, 9. 2% ; 20, 9. 9% ; 21, 8. 7% ; 26, 9. 5% ; 30, 8. 5% 30,,, : ( ),,, 2 1978-2007 1978 1979 1990 2000 2006 2007 1979-2007 4. 4 4. 2 2. 9 4. 1 3. 9 3. 8 3. 0 5. 6 3. 2 1. 9 3. 7 2. 9 2. 2 2. 9 3. 1 3. 9 3. 6 3. 9 2. 7 2. 6 2. 2 5. 3 5. 5 5. 2 2. 9 2. 2 2. 1 2. 4 11. 7 7. 6 3. 8 8. 4 11. 6 11. 9 9. 8 8. 5 11. 6 3. 9 8. 0 7. 0 6. 4 5. 6 9. 3 6. 8 9. 2 8. 5 5. 1 5. 0 6. 4 8. 5 9. 4 9. 2 10. 1 9. 4 7. 7 7. 1 6. 7 9. 3 9. 0 8. 9 5. 9 5. 7 6. 2 5. 7-5. 2 5. 5 4. 0 9. 7 9. 0 5. 7-3. 0 10. 0 7. 4 8. 1 0. 1 3 3. 2 6. 8-4. 3 4. 3 3. 7 5. 4 2. 7 : http: / /extsearch. worldbank. org/ servlet/ : 3 1989-2007, : % 3 : ( ) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 62740 68353 67737 72707 85674 95449 110776 142271 201722 251620 316589 405177 36173 35968 33621 35571 40554 42408 45179 53408 70229 83750 98910 119686 0. 58 0. 53 0. 50 0. 49 0. 47 0. 44 0. 41 0. 38 0. 35 0. 33 0. 31 0. 30 : 2008, : 2008 2008 http: / /www. stats. gov. cn 2008 53
2010 4,, 2007, (R&D ) 70. 4%, R&D R&D, R&D, 2007, R&D R&D 72. 3%, R&D, R&D R&D 60%, 77% ; 70. 3% ; 50% ; ( ), 35%, 2000,, 2007 51. 2%, 1000, 76. 5% (, 1950-1970 ) 3000,, 60% - 80%, 40%,, FD I 1992 100, 2002 500, 2008 4 3000 % ( ) % ( ) 2000 83. 0 2980 1972 82. 0 2832 2000 81. 7 2980 1960 81. 0 2787 1990 80. 4 3220 2001 79. 8 3090 1970 73. 3 2970 1970 72. 7 2990 1987 63. 4 3230 1972 61. 0 2745 : http: / /extsearch. worldbank. org/ servlet/ : 2008 1 1983 2008 54
: FD I,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,, 30,,,,, ( ), ( R&D ) R&D, R&D ( ) R&D R&D 1991, GDP,, 1991 1999 700, GDP 0. 55% 0. 75%, ;,, 2000 895. 7, 2008 4570, GDP, GDP, 2000 0. 91% 2008 1. 52% 5 1985 1990 1995 1999 2003 2007 ( % ) 38 32 40 42 47 43 ( % ) 87 82 82 84 82 75 ( % ) 0. 00 0. 02 0. 04 0. 05 0. 07 0. 11 :2008 2 1991 2008 : 2008 2008 (R&D),, 55
2010 4, ( ) 2007, 2611, 70% OECD 2007 ( ), 1978, 355, GDP 9. 7% ; 1993, GDP 31. 9% ; 2005, 11. 7, GDP 63. 8% 1993 2007 16. 7 2005, 43% 2007 7. 8%, 11. 3% 8. 5%,, 2007 43. 8%, 2008 25616,,, 1984, 260, 47. 65%, (5. 71% ) ( 15. 27% ) (23. 02% ) (2. 20% ) 1990, 71. 58%,,, 2003, 3 6 2007 281090 31802 23860 21738 13338 11654 10528 10412 11. 3 8. 5 7. 8 4. 7 4. 1 3. 7 3. 7 : 2008 56
: 7 1984 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 ( % ) 5171 3149 1169 1109 0152 ( % ) 15127 12165 8125 5144 3123 2152 3 ( % ) 23102 8131 3158 3114 2130 1164 3 ( % ) 47165 71158 84113 88122 91188 94195 3 ( % ) 2120 2108 2110 1190 1186 : http: / /ceicdata. securities. com; 3 2008, (2009a, 2009b) [ 15-16 ],,, 80%,,,,,, ( ),,,,, (2007) [ 21 ],, 2%, OECD, 61. 2%, ( ) 2005, 2007 12684, 11150, 88%,,,,,, :, 1 /10 1 /20, ;, ( 2007) 2004 7650. 7, GDP 31223. 4 24. 5% [ 22 ] 35% - 50% 8 OECD ( % ) 211418 (1980-2001) 314757 (1964-2003) 411092 (1970-2003) 415654 (1980-2003) ( % ) 20106 (1985-2001) 7112 (1964-2003) 6126 (1975-2003) 6101 (1980-2003) GDP ( % ) 16106 (1981-2001) 7125 (1964-2003) 5164 (1970-2003) 6119 (1980-2003) : (2007) [ 21 ] 57
2010 4 9 2001-2005 ( ) ( / ) ( / ) 2001 8961 5502 10870 0. 506 2002 9400 5597 12422 0. 451 2003 9820 5279 14040 0. 376 2004 11823 6471 16024 0. 404 2005 12578 6577 18405 0. 357 : 2001-2005 2005, [ 22 ],,,,,,,,,, 1994, 1994 1 1 8. 7, 1995 6, 1: 8. 28 (2004) CP I, 1987,, 1992,,, Tyers(2008) 1995,,,,,, [ 23 ] 95, 4 CP I (1987 = 100) : International Monetary Fund, 2004, International Financial Statistics, W ashington DC: InternationalMonetary Fund. 58
: : [ 23 ] 5 1995,,,, 2005 7 2. 1%,,,,,,, ;,,, [ 15 ],,,, ;,,,,,,,, ;,, ( 2009b) [ 16 ] 59
2010 4 ; ;,, :,,,,,,,,,,,, FD I ( ),,,,,,,,,, 60,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, : 1) 2) ;,, ;, ;
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