3 : 1998,, 1992 2004,,,, : :,, 2004 (,2005) ( ), 90,,, 30, (building cycles), 80, 20 90,, 21,,,,,,,,,,, 1992 2004,,,, ( 1),,, : 3,, :100836, :zhang - xj @cass. org. cn ;,, :suntao @pbc. gov. cn,,, 23
:,1978 1991,, 1985, ;1988 1989,,,,1992 1997 1992,,, 1992,, 1 : 2005 ; (1950 2000),, 1993 1993,,,, 1996, 211 %,1997, ( - 112 %) ( ),1998,1998,, : 1998,, ( 1),1998,,,,,,??,,?,,,,,,,,,,,,, 11,, 1998, 1978, 24
:1978 87, 714 %, 0174 ;1988 97, 611 %, 0161 ;1998 2004, 8141 %, 112, 10, 1998,,,2003 GDP 1000,,,, ;, 21 1998,,,,, (1) :, 1998 2004,7 9100, 5, GDP 115 2, (2) :, ;, ( 2 3),, (, 2005), :,,,,,, ( ), 2003 1 813 % 2004 4 2312 %,2004 1 11, 222, 2003 1315 %, 150, 1218 % ; 70, 2005, 2 : 3 ( 1998 2004) : 25
: 11000 Π 4716 % 73 %, 11000 Π 218 311 (,2005) 31,, ;, (1),,, (, 1),,,,,,, 1 ( %) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 616 617 1211 1115 1112 11 1017 1015 7619 7515 7512 69 7116 7313 7317 7313 917 1016 419 613 518 517 516 611 514 515 612 915 717 615 614 615 114 116 018 116 117 118 118 2 019 119 2 117 118 116 : ; : (2),,,,, ; GDP ( GDP, ),,,,,,,,,, 20 20 5,, ;,, GDP,, 26, :,,
,,,,,,,,, ;,,,,,,,,,,, : ;,,,,,,,,, :,, : 2 g - housinvest I(1), ( g - sales I(1) GDP ) housloan ( I(2) ) ( devploan I(2) ) longloan I(2) 11 totaloan I(1) CEIC ( + )Π, totalratio I(1) 1992 1 2004 4 realrate ( 2) I(1) reer,, I(1) g - housinvest g - sales shstock I(1), ; realrate CPI :I(n) n 1994 1 1,, ( ), Dummy, 1994 1 1 1, 0,, ( ) 27
:,, GDP,, 21 ( 2) 2, PcGets ( ),, (t,dw,r 2 ), 3 PcGets ( g - housinvest) ( (g - housinvest2cpi) ) Constant - - 0109674 ( - 41279) - 0101295-0102284 reer ( - 11717) ( - 31026) ( 3) - 0102694-0102927 3 reer - 2 ( - 31502) ( - 31810) 0103437 0104581 realrate - 1 (31401) (41539) 16, 0106976 0114236 R 2 48 % 64 %, (1) 1, 512 ( reer reer - 2 ) totalratio (21063) (31607) 0107020 totalratio - 1 - (11784) - 0151780-0162347 dummy ( - 41101) ( - 41877) R 2 0152301 0168163 R 2 0148153 0163822,, 1994 1998, DW 1198 2111 1992 Q2-2004 Q4 1992 Q2-2004 Q4 : t,,,,,, 1998,,,,,,,,, (2) 1, 4158,,,,?, 28
,,, ;,,,,,, (3) 1, 2113,,,,,, (4),, 6213 :,,,,,,,,,,;,,, : (1),, 1998, (2) 1993,, ;,,,,,,,,,, ;,,,?,, ( ), (1) ( ) 1998,,, 2005 1, 115 %,, :,,,, ( ),, 29
:,,,,,,,,, ( ) 2004, 17 %, 20 % ( ),,,,, (2) ( ) ( ) 70 % : ; ; ;, 2004 828137,,,,,,,,2000 2002 8112 %, 20, (,2005) (3), ( ),,,,,,1998, 219 %,2002 10 %, 2004 1315 % ( 4) 30 % 55 %,,,,,, (4) 1998,( 5),,,, A 100, 20 %, 20 A,,, B, B 70 % ( 70 ), 70 3, 1996, : (40 % 55 %), (30 % 40 %), (30 % 40 %), (35 % 45 %), (30 % 40 %) ( Koh,2004) 30
, ( ),,80 %,, ;,,,,,,,?,,,, ( 2005 7 ),,,,,,, 4 : 5 :,,,, (5), 6,2001,,, 2004 40 %,, 1997, ( ),,,,,?, 80 % ;, 2004 36 % ( 7),,,, (, ), 31
:, ;,,,, :,,,, : (1),,, ;,,, (, ) (2) 6 : 7 :,,,, (, ), (3),, ( ),,,,,,,, 187, 137,,,,, 32
No1 1501,2002 : (1950 2000),,2005 :, 4,2005 : 2004,CEIC, Davis, E Philip and Haibin Zhu,2004, Bank Lending and Commercial Property Cycles : Some Cross2Country Evidence, BIS Working Papers Helbling,Thomas F,2003, Housing Price Bubbles 2 A Tale Based on Housing Price Booms and Busts, This paper draws on Chapter II of the April 2003 World Economic Outlook,IMF,20031 2002. Herring, Richard and Susan Wachter,2002, Bubbles in Real Estate Markets, Zell Lurie Real Estate Center Working Paper 402, March Koh, Winston T. H., Roberto S. Mariano, Andrey Pavlov, Sock Yong Phang, Augustine H. H. Tan, and Susan M. Wachter,2004, Bank Lending and Real Estate in Asia : Market Optimism and Asset Bubbles, Forthcoming in Journal of Asian Economics. Quigley, John M,2001, Real Estate and the Asian Crisis, Program on Housing and Urban Policy Working Paper Series, Working No. W99 008. China s Property Cycles and Financial Stability Zhang Xiaojing ( Institute of Economics,CASS) Sun Tao (Financial Stability Bureau,People s Bank of China) Abstract :Real estate cycles and financial stability are closely interrelated. China s real estate cycle since 1998 involved in the global real estate bubbles draws worldwide attention. Based on analyzing three driving factors of real estate cycle in the aspect of growth, macro2economy and institutional setup, this paper performs an econometric analysis with quarterly data of 1992 2004, indicating that in the medium and long term, both development and general price of real estate tend to maintain the stable upward trend. This paper then points out that the impact of current real estate cycle on financial stability could be the risks resulting from real estate lending exposure, government guarantees and maturity mismatch, followed by some corresponding policy implications such as advancing banking reform, improving the behavior of local governments and strengthening the monitor of foreign capital inflows. Key Words :Real Estate Cycles ; Driving Factors ; Financial Stability JEL Classification : E300,E370, G180 ( : ) ( : ) ( CSSCI) ( 2004 ) (CSSCI), 2004 : (1) 31619,, ; (2) 3431, ; (3) ( ) 0. 6196, 33