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28 12 17 28.68 2.6 3883.39 3 1994.45 1975.1 725.32 2736.3 1998 8998 6998 4998 2998 71217 8317 8611 891 81128 3 1 : 28.12.2 2 VS :4 28.1.5 3 28.7.14 9 1999-28 1 1 29 1 2 3 4 5 29 2 29 2 29 (8621)6138276 gongyunhua@gjzq.com.cn (8621)6138257 zhaoli@gjzq.com.cn 969 15A 211 此文档仅供大成基金管理有限公司刘明 2 使用 1

A 27EPS 28EPS 29EPS 27PE 28PE 29PE 8%7 9%8 983 11.63 1132.42.868 1.356 1.2 212.44% -26.11% 13.4 8.58 11.61 937 14.8 372.87.725 2.733 1.71 277.7% -37.43% 19.43 5.15 8.23 6997 13.87 32.16 1.1 1.756 1.21 75.6% -41.86% 12.61 7.9 13.58 61699 13.81 115.54 1.53 2.314 1.796 172.24% -22.39% 9.3 5.97 7.69 6188 19.93 18. 1.7 1.55 1.792 44.86% 15.61% 18.63 12.86 11.12 6971 14. 83.76 1.7 1.255 1.53 17.29% 21.91% 13.8 11.16 9.15 6123 14.29 365.51 1.414 2.2 1.68 117.9% -23.64% 1.11 6.5 8.51 6348 11.34 4.78 1.3 1.15.95 123.3% -17.39% 11.1 9.86 11.94 933 15.86 311.6 1.639 2.55 1.65 55.58% -35.29% 9.68 6.22 9.61 6188 1.27 1958.4.58 1.85 1.1 211.21% -39.6% 17.71 5.69 9.34 611 13.76 836.85.6 1.65 1.35 175.% -18.18% 22.93 8.34 1.19 2128 11.12 811.2.74.82.75 44.5% -8.54% 15.3 13.56 14.83 13.7% 13.98 8.8 1.6 28 12 8 28... 4 1999-28... 4 1... 6 28 3... 7 29..1... 1... 1... 11 4... 12 9 2... 13 9 2... 13 29... 13 29... 14... 14... 14 P/B... 15... 15... 15... 15... 15... 16... 16... 16 1 1999... 4 2

2... 4 3... 5 4... 5 5... 5 6... 5 7... 6 8... 6 9 1... 7 1 1... 7 11... 8 123... 8 133... 9 14... 9 15... 9 16.. 1 17... 11 18... 11 19... 12 2... 12 21 CRB... 13 22... 14 23 BJ... 14 3

28 1999-28 1999 28 1999-28 1998 28.79% 28.23% 27 41.27%41.13% 1999-28 1 1998 27 4.81% 4.35% 15.12%11.17% 1999-28 21 2 1999-4.67% 28 8 14.66% 1 1999 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 15 1 5-5 -1 Feb-99 Jul-99 Dec-99 Jun- Nov- May-1 Oct-1 Apr-2 Sep-2 Mar-3 Aug-3 Feb-4 Jul-4 Dec-4 Jun-5 Nov-5 May-6 Oct-6 Aug-7-1 CEIC 2 3, 2,8 2,6 2,4 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 78 77 76 75 74 73 72 71 43% 41% 39% 37% 35% 33% 31% 29% 27% 25% 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 CEICBP 4

3 4 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 13% 12% 11% 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 CEIC 1 1 1997 1997-1998 1999 22 23 1999-2 1999 3.89% 27 44.9% 22-23 5 27 22 3.8 13724.96 6.5 2.17 169.48%13.29%92.15%192.73% 5 6 1.3 1.2 28 26 24 22 1.1 1. 2 18 16 14 12.9 1 Jul-1 2 Jul-2 3 Jul-3 4 Jul-4 5 Jul-5 6 Jul-6 7 Jul-7 8 Jul-8 Dec-96 Dec-97 Dec-98 Dec-99 Dec- Dec-1 Dec-2 Dec-3 Dec-4 Dec-5 Dec-6 Dec-7 Dec-8 1 3 5

25 3 27 1.7 11155 25 45% 2.5 7 25.8.-26.6. 526 5931 26.7.-27.6. 2652 271.7 27.7.-28.6. 229 111552545% 2.5 21 2614.556 4.51717 2768815 5 8 12 1 8 6 4 2 (2) 1 1 23-27 5 Feb-4 May-4 Aug-4 Nov-4 Feb-5 May-5 Aug-5 Nov-5 Feb-6 May-6 Aug-6 Nov-6 Feb-7 May-7 Aug-7 Nov-7 Feb-8 May-8 Aug-8 23-27 5 5566.4 3%-4% 27 3 9 641 5 13.13% % % % 6 3 25 2 15 1 5 Feb-2 Jun-2 Oct-2 Feb-3 Jun-3 Oct-3 Feb-4 Jun-4 Oct-4 Feb-5 Jun-5 Oct-5 Feb-6 Jun-6 Oct-6 Feb-7 Jun-7 Oct-7

1999 2 25 26 27-42 32-46 28 8 48.67 1999 3-4 11-12 1999 2-3 35% 22 28 8 31.22 5.24 28 3 9 1 37 32 27 22 17 12 7 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-1. 1 2 Feb-99 Aug-99 Feb- Aug- Feb-1 Aug-1 Feb-2 Aug-2 Feb-3 Aug-3 Feb-4 Aug-4 Feb-5 Aug-5 Feb-6 Aug-6 Feb-7 Aug-7 Feb-8 Aug-8 Mar-99 Aug-99 Feb- Jul- Dec- Jun-1 Nov-1 May-2 Oct-2 Apr-3 Sep-3 Mar-4 Aug-4 Feb-5 Jul-5 Dec-5 Jun-6 Nov-6 Nov-7 Jun-8 1 1 Feb-99 Aug-99 Feb- Aug- Feb-1 Aug-1 Feb-2 Aug-2 Feb-3 Aug-3 Feb-4 Aug-4 Feb-5 Aug-5 Feb-6 Aug-6 Feb-7 Aug-7 Feb-8 Aug-8 28 3 28 3 28 1 1999-5.34% 7

11 4 3 2 1-1 99 Jul-99 Jul- 1 Jul-1 2 Jul-2 3 Jul-3 4 Jul-4 5 Jul-5 6 Jul-6 7 Jul-7 8 Jul-8-2 3 28 11 11 123 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 (63) 26 22 18 14 1 6 2 1-Nov-3 1-May-4 1-Nov-4 1-May-5 1-Nov-5 1-May-6 1-Nov-6 1-May-7 1-Nov-7 1-May-8 1-Nov-8 12-Aug-3 26-Nov-3 6-Apr-4 19-Jul-4 23-Oct-4 28-Feb-5 3-Oct-5 1-Jun-6 2-Nov-6 1-May-7 2-Oct-7 1-Apr-8 2-Sep-8 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 13-Sep-1 13-Mar-2 13-Sep-2 13-Mar-3 13-Sep-3 13-Mar-4 13-Sep-4 13-Mar-5 13-Sep-5 13-Mar-6 13-Sep-6 13-Mar-7 13-Sep-7 13-Mar-8 13-Sep-8 13-Mar-9 8 32 28 24 2 16 12 8 4 8 Feb-8 Mar-8 Apr-8 May-8 Jun-8 Jul-8 Aug-8 Sep-8 Oct-8 Nov-8

133 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 4-Jun-3 4-Oct-3 4-Feb-4 4-Jun-4 4-Oct-4 4-Feb-5 4-Jun-5 4-Oct-5 4-Feb-6 4-Jun-6 4-Oct-6 4-Feb-7 4-Jun-7 4-Oct-7 4-Feb-8 4-Jun-8 4-Oct-8 9 1 5.33%4.53% 13.44%9 11.33 14 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 14% 13% 12% 11% 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Jul-8 Aug-8 Aug-8 Sep-8 Sep-8 Oct-8 Oct-8 Nov-8 Jul-8 Aug-8 Aug-8 Sep-8 Sep-8 Oct-8 Oct-8 Nov-8 28 3 15 28F 29F 9Q1 9Q2 9Q3 9Q4 29F C PI Y O Y % 6 1~3 1 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.8 PPI YOY % 7.5 ~1 2 1.5.3.5.5 YOY % 15 11 13 12 11.5 11 11 M 2 YO Y % 1 4 11.5 14 13 12 11.5 11.5 YOY % 21 ~5 6~1 5~9 2~8 ~5 3 YOY % 25.5-2~2 4~8 3~7-1~3-2~2-1 28 33 7 156 244 33 33 YOY % 21.6 9~13 13~17 12~16 1~14 9~13 1 YOY % 26.5 1~14 1~16 11~17 11~17 11~17 14 GDP Y OY % 9.5 8 7.8 8 8.1 8 8 % 3.33 1.98 3.6 2.52 2.25 1.98 1.98 % 6.39 5.4 6.12 5.58 5.31 5.4 5.4 YOY % 6.5 ~2 ~2 ~2 ~2 ~2 1 9

1 29 16-5 5 1 15 2 Feb-99 Feb- Feb-1 Feb-2 Feb-3 Feb-4 Feb-5 Feb-6 Feb-7 Feb-8 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 4

17 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 L R.9.8.7.6.5.4.3.2.1. -.1 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 (/L) % 1 8 6 4 2 (2) Feb-99 Feb- Feb-1 Feb-2 Feb-3 Feb-4 Feb-5 Feb-6 Feb-7 Feb-8 Feb-99 Feb- Feb-1 Feb-2 Feb-3 Feb-4 Feb-5 Feb-6 Feb-7 Feb-8 1 2 3 1 5 18 (/) 26 27 28H 26 27 28H 937.SZ 8:15;8:25 3216 8719 11647 1.28% 3.47% 4.63% 983.SZ 8:15;8:3 22739 2418 1235 6.29% 6.69%.34% 6188.SH 8, 28388 28118 14159 15 3.11% 3.8% 1.55% 6348.SH 35 51261 453 2441 41.72% 36.65% 19.87% 611.SH 15 9836 33352 12923 4.4% 13.7% 5.31% 6188.SH 5-15 N/A 333 585 N/A 1.11% 1.94% 61666.SH 3 5335 2117 41637 2.1% 8.32% 16.36% 61699.SH 3285 5917 61234 49566 24.87% 25.76% 2.85% WIND 7 11

19 / / 7 8 7 8 P/B () () E() 933.SZ 7.91% 13.34% 1.49 74.63% 2.17 423 522 1628 1319 937.SZ 48.72% 8.73% 1.97 13.93% 3.17 1135 1225 977 96 983.SZ 43.3% 12.12% 2.61 34.4% 19.3 1612 1595 1435 145 6123.SH 56.47% 18.67% 1.8 38.74% 8.59 519 572 139 1261 6188.SH 19.23% 24.33% 1.76 3.49% 4. 3564 3614 1249 1232 6348.SH 66.87% 23.6% 3.1 36.52% 21.4 1287 1394 75 692 6395.SH 34.95% 9.61% 2.91 8.11% 4.7 168 237 3354 2378 658.SH 46.95% 15.99% 1.79 21.98% 1.12 78 843 872 87 6971.SH 7.56% 19.9% 1.62 124.34% 6.79 34 367 647 6 611.SH 55.3% 55.5% 1.7 28.7% 3.8 1747 2139 579 473 6188.SH 37.92% 17.7% 2.15 36.2% 179.9 167 18 2134 198 61666.SH 48.38% 43.21% 1.8 31.18% 22.1 77 285 1956 493 61699.SH 64.71% 19.6% 2.35 4.86% 12.8 241 2479 644 53 61898.SH 3.76% 4.4% 1.45 19.49% 93.97 8327 9996 113 942 61918.SH 63.96% 19.61% 2.3 89.99% 4.92 11 114 113 898 WIND 5.58% 22.69% 2.4 4.13% 31.15 2691 3128 1317 164 48.72% 19.6% 1.8 34.4% 12.8 1135 1394 113 96 19.23% 8.73% 1.45 3.49% 2.17 168 237 579 473 2 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 PE PB 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 WIND 4 11 9 4 21 1 12

9 2 9 2 21 CRB Reuters/Jefferies-CRB Index (1967=1) (monthly close) Inde x V alue 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 15 CRB 28 29 2 29 2 29/21 28 4 28 29 2 29/21 29 29 29 13

22 2 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 CEIC 28 7 28 11 17 BJ 5% 31.37% 23 BJ 1.9.8.7.6.5.4 Sep-2 Dec-2 Mar-3 CEIC 29 Jun-3 Sep-3 Dec-3 Mar-4 Jun-4 Sep-4 Dec-4 Mar-5 Jun-5 Sep-5 Dec-5 Mar-6 Jun-6 Sep-6 Dec-6 Mar-7 Jun-7 Sep-7 Dec-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Sep-8 Dec-8 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 14

29 P/B P/B 28 4 29 29 28~21 EPS 1.356 1.2 1.113 28 2-3 3 28~29 EPS 2.314 1.796 28 11 14 15

28 29 28-21 EPS 2.733 1.71 1.812 29 29 3 28-21 EPS 1.55 1.792 1.932 1 4 2 28 29 29 4 15.75 / 254 13.51% 21.91% 28 225 18 685 1175 / 14% 2.36 16% 28~29 EPS 1.255 1.53 28 29 28~29 EPS 1.15.95 16

612 2% 612 1%2% 612-1%1% 612 1%2% 612 2% 36 5% 36-5%5% 36 5% 17