() ().. - PDF Free Download

21 1 11 39.SZ () 13.32 () 16.16 A () 1,231.3 () 35,463.12 ( ) 13.9/6.76 3 348.13 13267.44 13.66 12.66 11.66 1.66 9.66 8.66 7.66 6.66 9112 941 976 1 29.4.27 2 9 29.4.1 (8621)6138223 zhangh@gjzq.com.cn (8621)6138289 dongyaguang@gjzq.com.cn 1,2 9924 91223 8 6 4 2 (8621)6138271 zhuli@gjzq.com.cn 969 15A 211 3 1, 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E ( ) 1.249 1.189.528.299.73.959 3.84% 14.2-55.55% -43.34% 134.73% 36.4 EPS ( ) N/A N/A N/A.346.545.797 ( ) 15.8 21.77 11.73 44.49 18.95 13.9 ( ) 18.72 36.8 1.23 14.1 14.1 14.1 ( ) 25.86 45.72 15.55 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.28% 1.93% 2.42% 6.1% 3.75% 3.75% PE/G( ) 3.92 1.53 N/A -1.3.14.38 24.93% 19.89% 1.48% 5.72% 12.93% 16.27% ( ) 5.1 5.98 5.4 5.23 5.43 5.89 ( ) 3.76 4.33 1.23 2.55 2.45 2.26 ( ).58 -.41 1.26.6.73.68 A () 666.45 932.86 1,65.98 1,65.98 1,65.98 1,65.98 () 2,218.66 2,662.4 2,662.4 2,662.4 2,662.4 2,662.4 EPS 21 211 1.27 2.74 TEU 22 3~4 9-11 18,586 28,39 42,835-6.7% 52.3% 51.3% 797 1,871 2,552.299.73.959-43.4% 134.7% 36.4% 21 211.42.88 6 16.16 2 211 3 21 此报告仅供国金证券刘军使用 1

... 4... 4... 4... 4... 5... 5... 5... 8... 11... 13... 13... 15... 18... 19... 19... 2... 21... 21... 21... 22... 23... 23... 23... 24 1()... 4 2()... 4 3 /GDP... 6 46 5.. 7 6... 7 7... 8 8 GDP... 8 2

9... 8 1... 9 11()... 9 12()... 9 13... 1 14... 1 15 21... 1 16(1 )... 1 17(1 )... 1 18 PMI 6 7... 11 19 GDP... 12 2 GDP... 12 21 21... 12 22(1 )... 13 23(1 )... 13 24... 13 25... 14 26... 14 27... 15 28... 15 29... 16 3... 16 31(1 )... 16 32... 17 33... 17 34 LNG... 18 35(1 )... 18 36... 19 37... 2 38... 2 39... 2 4... 22 41 2~4 PB... 23 42... 23 3

5 211 4~5 1() 2() 6 5 35 3 1 8 4 3 25 2 15 6 4 2 1 2 1 24 25 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 5 24 25 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 96 2 4 5 6 8 21 211 1.27 2.74 TEU 22 3~4 9-11 18,586 28,39 42,835-6.7% 52.3% 51.3% 797 1,871 2,552.299.73.959-43.4% 134.7% 36.4% 21 211.42.88 6 16.16 2 211 2~4 PB 3 PB 21 3 16.3 6 4

1 ( 5.9%) 2 212 5-7 212 5-7 3 212 12~18 1~2 2~3 9-9 9 25% 5-7 21 GDP IMF 21 211 3.1% 4.19% /GDP 2.5~3 5~7 21 211 /GDP 1.9 1.95 5

3 /GDP 5 4 3 2 1 1996-282.73 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 212E IMF Drewry 9 9 1 9 17.2 8 18.7 21 211 212 21 211 18. 18.3 4 2 18 16 14 12 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 212E Drewry CI-online 21 211 1.26 2.74 TEU 27 3.9 TEU 6

5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 212E CI-online 6 21 21 211 1.9 1.53 TEU 21 21 211 1.68 3.69 TEU 211 29 21 211 29 21 211 29 21 211 GDP -1.1% 2. 2. -1.1% 3.1 4.19% -1.1% 4.2 4.5 /GDP 9.44 1.7 1.8 9.44 1.9 1.95 9.44 2.2 2.5 17.2 17.6 17.8 17.2 18. 18.3 17.2 18.4 18.8 ( TEU) 8 8 85 8 935 96 8 11 12 ( TEU) 246 188 1526 246 1261 2737 246 1681 369 (/TEU) 42 19 193 42 2 25 42 25 215 () 1.33 2.68 29.45 1.33 25.22 56.11 1.33 34.46 79.33 6.827 6.825 6.7 6.827 6.825 6.7 6.827 6.825 6.7 ( rmb) 7.54 141.12 197.29 7.54 172.12 375.91 7.54 235.16 531.54 61% 55% 55% 61% 55% 55% 61% 55% 55% ( rmb) 43.3 77.61 18.51 43.3 94.67 26.75 43.3 129.34 292.35 IMF Drewry CI-online 29 29 1 TEU 7

7 GDP ( TEU) (TEU) /GDP (TEU) / ( TEU) ( TEU) ( TEU) 1996 3.7% 14.8 11 158 8.8% 2.35 3.3 3.3 82 465 1285 1997 4. 15.3 12 176 11.4% 2.84 3.8 3.1 935 47 145 1998 2.6% 15.3 12 191 8.2% 3.19 4.2 3. 96 52 148 1999 3.6% 15.6 13 211 1.4% 2.88 4.4 3. 125 515 154 2 4.8% 15.9 15 237 12.3% 2.55 4.9 3.1 1395 535 193 21 2.3% 16.1 15 249 5.1% 2.25 5.4 2.8 65 675 128 22 2.9% 17. 16 279 12.2% 4.24 6. 2.7 93 75 168 23 3.6% 17.6 18 316 13. 3.61 6.5 2.7 152 8 232 24 4.9% 18.3 2 363 14.9% 3.3 7.2 2.8 1873 114 2977 25 4.5% 18.9 21 399 1. 2.24 8.1 2.6 1287 1133 242 26 5.1% 19.2 23 443 1.9% 2.15 9.5 2.4 1958 1142 31 27 5.2% 19.3 26 498 12.4% 2.41 1.8 2.4 2752 1148 39 28 3. 18.7 28 525 5.4% 1.81 12.1 2.3 224 8 34 29E -1.1% 17.2 27 472-1. 9.44 12.9 2.1-554 8 246 21E 3.1% 18. 28 5 5.9% 1.9 14.1 2. 326 935 1261 211E 4.2% 18.3 3 541 8.2% 1.95 15.2 1.9 1777 96 2737 212E 4.4% 18.7 31 588 8.8% 2. 16. 2. 1913 12 3113 IMF Drewry CI-online 21 21 8 GDP 9 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% -1% GDP (RHS) 25% 2 15% 1 5% -5% -1 6 4 2-2 (RHS) 25% 2 15% 1 5% -5% -2% -15% -4-1 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 212E 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 212E IMF Drewry CI-online 4 8

1 23% 21% 12% 16% 12% 16% Journal of Commerce 1 9 3 11 11() 12() 14 4 8 5 12 1 8 6 4 2 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 6 4 2 4 3 2 1-1 -2-5 -3 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-2 Jul-2 Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-2 Jul-2 Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 BEA 9 11 15.4 7 12 7.9 21 9.3%~9.7% 211 8.2%~8.6% 212 6.8%~7.5% 212 9

13 12% 1 (RHS) 12 1 8% 8 6% 6 4% 4 2% 2 Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Jul-7 Sep-7 Nov-7 Jan-8 Mar-8 May-8 Jul-8 Sep-8 Nov-8 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Jul-9 Sep-9 Nov-9 11 /.92 9.93 14 15 21 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1.1 1..9.8.7.6.5 46 44 42 4 38 36 34 32 3 1 25 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 Oct-9 Jul-9 Apr-9 Jan-9 Oct-8 Jul-8 Apr-8 Jan-8 Oct-7 Jul-7 Apr-7 Jan-7 Oct-6 Jul-6 Apr-6 Jan-6 Oct-5 Jul-5 Apr-5 Jan-5 Jul-9 Jan-9 Jul-8 Jan-8 Jul-7 Jan-7 Jul-6 Jan-6 Jul-5 Jan-5 Jul-4 Jan-4 Jul-3 Jan-3 Jul-2 Jan-2 Jul-1 Jan-1 / BEA 11 2.2% 1.4% 8 8 16(1 ) 17(1 ) 25 3 4 1 2 2 1 36 5% 15 32 1-1 28-5% 5-2 -3 24-1 -4 2-15% Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-2 Jul-2 Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-2 Jul-2 Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 1

BEA 21 6 7 PMI 2~3 12 PMI 52.6% 6 12 55% 7 12 54.3% 21 7 8 18 PMI 6 7 21 GDP 71% 9 67% 11

19 GDP 72% 7 68% 66% 64% 62% 6 197q1 1972q1 1974q1 1976q1 1978q1 198q1 1982q1 1984q1 1986q1 1988q1 199q1 1992q1 1994q1 1996q1 1998q1 2q1 22q1 24q1 26q1 28q1 BEA 21 2 28 GDP 24% 32% 8 8 5.6% GDP 3.9% 5 29 21 9 GDP 3.36% GDP 8 32.4% IMF 21 211 26.6% 27.3% 32.4% GDP GDP 2 GDP 21 21 35% 32% 29% GDP 6% 5% CAGR GDP CAGR 26% 4% 23% 2 3% 17% 2% 14% 1% 11% 197 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 26 28 21E -8-9 IMF - 12

22(1 ) 23(1 ) IMF -7 2.6 24 Derwy (LNG CNG LPG) TGE 13

25 29 8 28 8 28 6 TGE GAS 27 7 27 6 25 3 22 26 CNG 8 5TGE 14

27 CNGCNG 42.18% 8 TGE Gas LNG LNG 6 1 1 1 29 8 HOVLRIEKA 56.59% 8.13% 28 1 3.6% 24.1% 15

29 3 1 8 6 9 8 7 6 5 3 25% 2 15% 4 4 1 2 OECD 3 2 1 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 5% -5% BP 31(1 ) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 BP 1 ( 1.3%) 23 2 3 215 6 8 8 75% LNG 5 24 29-215 2.4 4.8 28 215 16

32 33 (/ ) 17 24 1 3 211 3 215 17

34 LNG (/ ) (/ ) () LNG 37 3 72 26.9 LNG 26 6 24 28.7 LNG 3 3 45.9 29 LNG 3 3 68 212 LNG 35 25 15 212 LNG 3 3 142 215 LNG 3 2 45 214 LNG 6 4 1 LNG 2 3 136 LNG 2 3 83.78 LNG 3 5 LNG 3 5 15 LNG 25 45 LNG 3 52 LNG 3 4+3 86 LNG 463 415+3 22 3~4 1 5 35(1 ) 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 28 29E 21E 211E 212E 213E 214E 215E 216E 217E 218E 219E 22E LNG LNG 18

36 29~215 CAGR 15% 29-212 CAGR 41.2% 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 212E 77 941 1237 146 1752 2277 296 1384 2221 2665 8 1679 2183 2619 2767 2713 185 1737 1997 2297 54 89 283 566 736 883 347 173 28 25 299 TGE 55 7 75 1 2 4 1 3 5 7771 381 6691 8642 179 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 212E 5 22% 31% 18% 2 3 3 28% 6 2-7 11 3 2-2% -6 6 15% 15% 6-65% 1 3 2-5 2 2 2 TGE 27% 7% 1 1 2 67% -51.9% 76.4% 29.16% 23.91% () 12 19

37 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 3 16% 3% 6 ( ) 1 2 29 2%~3% 38 39 4% 35% 3 3% 25% 2% 2 15% 1% 1 5% 25 26 27 28 25H1 25H2 26H1 26H2 27H1 27H2 28H1 28H2 29H1 2

FPSO FSO 2 2 2 29 2 2 21 211 21 211 13% 12.6% 21 12 32 21 211 12 21 211 8 4 5 9-11 18,586 28,39 42,835-6.7% 52.3% 51.3% 797 1,871 2,552.299.73.959-43.4% 134.7% 36.4% 21 211.42.88 21

4 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 25,94. 34,48.9 29,98.58 4,32.73 9,73.2 21,179.39-2.9 31.44% -14.54% -85.21% 125.51% 118.27% 12.44% 9.31% 1.82% 14. 12.9 12.6 22,681.54 3,878.9 25,948.72 3,7.35 8,451.49 18,51.79 1.83% 36.14% -15.97% -85.74% 128.4 119.2% 3,222.46 3,17.1 3,149.86 62.38 1,251.71 2,668.6-26.84% -1.63% -.64% -8.88% 17.79% 113.2 78.1 69.83% 61.48% 23.15% 34.28% 49.44% 71.93% 64.48% 57.76% 27.38% 32.76% 46.68% 7,91. 9,724.5 1,5.45 9,547.93 1,98.12 12,78.13 66.91% 37.13% 3.36% -5. 15. 1. 15.75% 11.8% 1.99% 1.5 11.1 11.1 5,974.17 8,646.63 8,945.91 8,545.4 9,761.32 1,737.46 63.95% 44.73% 3.46% -4.48% 14.23% 1. 1,116.83 1,77.42 1,14.54 1,2.53 1,218.79 1,34.67 84.74% -3.53% 2.52% -9.24% 21.57% 1. 21.38% 19.94% 21.24% 51.37% 38.79% 28.2 24.93% 21.92% 2.26% 45.57% 31.89% 23.45% 168. 473.23 488.4 585.65 585.65 585.65 5. 181.68% 3.13% 2... 35.2 33.8% 32.4% 29.5 3. 3. 18.86 316.69 331.67 412.88 49.95 49.95 8.64% 19.9 4.73% 24.48% -.71%. 59.14 156.54 156.37 172.77 175.69 175.69-1.1 164.72% -.11% 1.49% 1.69%..51%.97% 1.3% 3.15% 2.7% 1.37% 1.32% 3.18% 2.87% 7.85% 4.6 3.7% 4,536.3 7,77.87 3,8.92 6,691.3 8,642.41 #DIV/! 71.3-51.9% 76.4% 29.16% 15.12% 15.7 17. 18.5 19. 3,85.41 6,55.84 3,154.76 5,453.41 7,.36 #DIV/! 7.13% -51.84% 72.86% 28.37% 685.89 1,22.3 646.16 1,237.89 1,642.6 #DIV/! 77.88% -47.4% 91.58% 32.65% 9.3 16.42% 2.45% 23.64% 2.18% 13.95% 22.37% 29.37% 32.39% 28.72% 236. 618.49 79.88 949.6 949.6 949.6 1211.11% 162.7% 27.87% 2... 37.23% 75.41% 49.37% 8. 25. 2. 148.14 152.9 4.42 873.13 711.79 759.25 843.13% 2.67% 163.29% 118.5% -18.48% 6.67% 87.86 466.4 39.46 75.92 237.26 189.81 3731.5 43.82% -16.28% -8.55% 212.5-2..71% 1.27% 1.67% 5.11% 3.35% 2.22% 1.96% 9.49% 7.16% 3.45% 6.21% 3.32% -23. -64.15-871.55-6. -6. -6. -11.57% 178.33% 36.15% -31.16%.. -224. -33.33-3. -3. -3. 58.87% -1. #DIV/! -1.1.. 33169. 4876.82 47327.27 18586.28 2839.32 42834.64 28688.71 43844.7 41874.23 16386.52 24487.96 37117.8 448.29 4916.11 5453.4 2199.76 3821.35 5716.84 13.51% 1.8% 11.52% 11.84% 13.5 13.35% 6 16.16 2 211 2~4 PB 3 PB 21 3 16.3 6 22

41 2~4 PB 1 8 6 4 2 Apr-2 Aug-2 Dec-2 Apr-3 Aug-3 Dec-3 Apr-4 Aug-4 Dec-4 Apr-5 Aug-5 Dec-5 Apr-6 Aug-6 Dec-6 Apr-7 Aug-7 Dec-7 Apr-8 Aug-8 Dec-8 Apr-9 Aug-9 Dec-9 42 P/E P/B (1 rmb) 29E 21E 211E 29E 21E 211E 5.57 15.63 13.72 13.58 3.4 2.85 2.46 5.2 34.57 27.96 23.6 3.9 2.83 2.59 1.53 2.36 17.57 18.6 3.96 3.41 2.96 139.15 N.A. 76.78 33.56 2.96 2.98 2.97 53.51 N.A. N.A. 73.28 1.98 2.6 2. 35.46 44.49 18.95 13.9 2.55 2.45 2.26 211 23

26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 33,168 48,761 47,327 18,586 28,39 42,835 2,17 3,54 3,11 2,974 3,68 4,283 47. -2.9% -6.7% 52.3% 51.3% 5,636 1,85 5,931 5,294 6,911 9,877-28,689-43,84-41,874-16,387-24,488-37,118 4,728 7,715 7,833 6,982 7,232 8,471 % 86.5% 89.8% 88.5% 88.2% 86.5% 86.7% 2,7 2,792 1,952 1,126 1,246 1,52 4,479 4,957 5,453 2,2 3,821 5,717 15,81 24,367 18,818 16,376 19,7 24,133 % 13.5% 1.2% 11.5% 11.8% 13.5% 13.3% % 65.8% 6.3% 54.5% 49.6% 53.2% 58.4% -31-56 -28-19 -25-39 1,371 5,265 3,448 3,449 3,448 3,448 %.1%.1%.1%.1%.1%.1% 5,575 7,35 8,97 8,28 8,364 8,755-1,8-1,153-1,8-595 -764-1,157 % 24.3% 17.4% 23.4% 24.9% 23.3% 21.2% % 3. 2.4% 2.3% 3.2% 2.7% 2.7% 837 3,374 3,835 4,952 4,953 4,954-894 -1,598-1,661-1,617-1,529-1,713 7,842 16,25 15,739 16,611 16,767 17,159 % 2.7% 3.3% 3.5% 8.7% 5.4% 4. % 34.2% 39.7% 45.5% 5.4% 46.8% 41.6% EBIT 2,547 2,151 2,684-31 1,53 2,88 22,923 4,392 34,558 32,987 35,837 41,292 % 7.7% 4.4% 5.7% n.a 5.3% 6.6% 962 4,65 2,477 3,266 5,281 6,25-64 -372-196 -196-226 -254 7,674 11,431 7,676 6,789 8,363 1,899 %.2%.8%.4% 1.1%.8%.6% 1,518 1,64 2,246 2,87 2,349 2,873-63 -72-242 44-45 1,153 17,135 12,399 12,863 15,993 19,977 275-438 726 4,462 6,548 4,548 3,548 3,549 383 1,466 418 1,65 93 555 79 1,252 676 % 12.2% 41.9% 21.7% 133.8% 39.9% 17.4% 1,958 22,85 19,623 17,411 19,541 23,526 2,866 3,457 1,767 1,181 2,251 3,64 11,117 15,914 13,429 13,93 14,47 15,691 8.6% 7.1% 3.7% 6.4% 8. 7.2% 848 1,629 1,56 1,646 1,826 2,76 284 43 16 52 8 12 22,923 4,392 34,558 32,987 35,837 41,292 3,15 3,5 1,927 1,233 2,331 3,184 9.5% 7.2% 4.1% 6.6% 8.2% 7.4% -235-175 -242-296 -28-382 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 7.5% 5. 12.5% 24. 12. 12. 2,915 3,326 1,685 937 2,51 2,82 1.231 1.189.528.299.73.959 183 16 278 14 18 25 5.11 5.977 5.44 5.232 5.435 5.894 2,732 3,165 1,47 797 1,871 2,552.585 -.48 1.264.59.73.68 8.2% 6.5% 3. 4.3% 6.6% 6..38.43.5.8.5.5 24.93% 19.89% 1.48% 5.72% 12.93% 16.27% 26 27 28 29E 21E 211E 12.9% 7.84% 4.7% 2.42% 5.22% 6.18% 2,772 3,326 1,685 937 2,51 2,82 19.14% 7.48% 9.55% -.1 5.26% 8.98% 164 1,56 185 639 679 871 639 793 7.13% 47.1% -2.94% -6.73% 52.31% 51.31% -312-1,592 361-1,711-715 -339 EBIT -1.95% -23.85% 24.81% ####### ####### 86.87% -1,492-3,459-864 61-3 -1,445 3.84% 14.2-55.55% -43.34% 134.73% 36.4 1,317-1,86 3,367 158 1,945 1,812 33.48% 76.2-14.44% -4.55% 8.64% 15.22% 42-1,847-2,256-1,87-759 -1,2-2,345-1,62-499 -1 47.5 52.7 5.5 8. 65. 6. 434-89 227 1,65 93 555 51.5 51.8 67.8 16. 11. 85. -1,869-2,998-2,527-158 171-465 4.1 45.1 49.6 75. 65. 6. 9 47 17 54.8 48. 55.2 143.6 96.9 67. 585 6,293 1,55-1,67 1,15 924-965 -1,55-2,15 1,542-2,425-1,667-4.27% 25.93% 37.8% 28.6 29.23% 28.61% -291 5,15-1,33-128 -1,49-743 EBIT 44. 5.8 13.7 -.2 6.7 11.1-843 1,66-193 -128 76 63 47.8 56.57% 56.78% 52.78% 54.53% 56.97% 24

1 3 7 7 36 1 5 6 87 2 4 41 5 1 6 1. 1.2 1.53 1.76 2.11 1 2 3 4 5 1. = 1.1~2.= 2.1~3.= 3.1~4.= 4.1~5.= () 1 28-9-22 8.46 7.6 8.82 2 28-1-28 6.62 N/A 3 29-2-4 7.55 N/A 4 29-4-1 8.44 N/A 5 29-4-27 8.22 N/A 22.43 2.43 18.43 16.43 14.43 12.43 1.43 8.43 6.43 1 3 4 5 2 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 8111 841 874 8925 81223 9324 9618 998 9127 6 12 2 6 12 1 2 6 12-1 1 6 12 1 2 6 12 2 25