2007 7 26 002154 11 13.2 21.2 21.6 (0755)22627485 ouzh@pasc.com.cn 60-61% 04-05 002154 baoxiniao.com.cn - 2400 ( ) 9600 (%) 25 34.72% ( ) - 65% (%) 10 60 ( ) 2.51 2.1 3300 (%) 23.29 07 09 EPS 0.531 0.601 0.88 ( ) 1.63 21.2~21.6 PE 30 06 25 30 PE 11 13.2 12 31 ( ) ( ) (%) ( ) ( ) (%) 2004A 293 26.83-0.279 - - 2005A 307.95 29.6 10.32 0.308 0.2 1.65 2006A 344.9 42.16 42.43 0.439 - - 2007E 393.19 51.00 20.96 0.531 - - 2008E 452.16 57.71 13.16 0.601 - - 2009E 652.19 84.46 46.35 0.880 - - EPS 2400
... 3... 3... 3... 4... 4... 4... 4... 5... 6... 7... 9... 10... 11... 11... 11
2001 6 20 6,000 7,200 2,400 9,600 1 4,680 65.00% 4,680 48.75% 1,188 16.50% 1,188 12.38% 590.4 8.20% 590.4 6.15% 352.8 4.90% 352.8 3.68% 352.8 4.90% 352.8 3.68% 36 0.50% 36 0.38% 2,400 25.00% 7,200 100% 9,600 100% 2006 12 31 2.98 1.17 39.26% 2000 7.5 2005 14 2010 GDP 2,700 18 2004-2006 18.7% 19.6% 19.2% 13.3% 12.9% 13.7% 13 2003-2006 14% 2 1800000 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 YOY 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 5 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Wind 3/12
3 / 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Wind WTO 8% 2010 2004 2005 2006 61.07% 59.94% 61.16% 4/12
4 21,500.00 21,000.00 20,500.00 20,000.00 19,500.00 19,000.00 18,500.00 18,000.00 17,500.00 17,000.00 16,500.00 16,000.00 61.07% 59.94% 61.16% 2004 2005 2006 61.40% 61.20% 61.00% 60.80% 60.60% 60.40% 60.20% 60.00% 59.80% 59.60% 59.40% 59.20% 2004 2005 2.59% 2.70% 1997 53 2006 551 10 5 600 500 400 380 421 445 511 559 556 551 300 298 200 100 0 53 129 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 50-5/12
2006 12% 42.43% 2004-2005 6 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 YOY 10.32% 5.10% YOY 2004 2005 2006 7 42.43% 12.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 45.00% 40.00% 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2004 2005 2006 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 2004-2006 2006 6/12
8 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% - 21.15% 22.98% 9.36% 9.44% 2004 2005 2006 22.66% 9.99% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Zegna Hugo Boss Cerruti 1881 Dunhill Armani 9 1000 1000-2000 2000 CS 2000-3000 HugoBos s Dunhill 5000 Armani Zegna Cerruti18 81 7/12
10 150 60 57 115 84.25 30 30 60 25 8 20 33.75 30 2006 50.52% 25.95% 22.23% 29.93% 32.16% 34.72% 1 2005 44.17% 24.60% 24.56% 31.93% 32.77% 2005 10.19% 3.98% 2.70% 2 2004 9.02% 4.38% 2.59% OEM OEM 1 2004 2004 2 2004 2005 4.41% 4.19% 30 34.72% 11 SWOT 30 29 370 551 2003-2004 5.62 2005 31.32% 10.19% 4.19% 3.98% 2.70% 8/12
2,400 22,193 564 21,629 12 6 10,794 10,902 15 1,819 1 10 10 5,823 6,188 939 1 60 3,781 60 4,079 615 1 1,795 1 22,193 21,169 3,373 1 (1) 564 10,230 2007 4 100 (2) 12 Internet 6 1700m2 6 15 3000m2 15 1 2 60% 3 80% 4 100% 10 1 2 50% 3 70% 4 100% 2011 10 60 1 10 2 70% 3 100% 2.1 3300 9/12
50 T IPO 2004-2005 2007 8 2008 2009 2007-2008 13 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 293 307.95 344.9 393.19 452.16 652.19 191 196.25 210.06 231.98 266.78 381.53 1.93 2.37 3.2 3.74 4.30 6.20 32.95 40.39 43.42 51.11 60.14 88.70 27.43 29.07 34.45 41.28 47.48 68.48 1.38 1.08 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.13 0.58 0.93 0.33 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.14 2.08 1.97 2.26 3.26 37.74 38.99 55.46 69.96 79.20 115.87 0.63 1.29 0.88 1.18 1.36 1.96 0.65 0.09 2.47 3.15 3.62 5.22 37.72 40.2 53.88 67.99 76.94 112.61 10.88 10.59 11.72 17.00 19.24 28.15 26.83 29.6 42.16 51.00 57.71 84.46 ( ) 0 0 0 26.83 29.6 42.16 51.00 57.71 84.46 ( ) 72 72 72 72 72 72 96 96 96 96 96 96 ( ) 0.373 0.411 0.586 0.708 0.801 1.173 ( ) 0.279 0.308 0.439 0.531 0.601 0.880 10/12
14 070725 06PE 07PE 08PE 28.89 27.82 42.26 44.66 20.42 29.2 69.88 55.99 10.56 22.63 36.85 32.64 6.57 16.16 34.09 25.86 10.73 11.43 24.34 21.71 21.448 41.484 36.172 39.83 40.99 36.34 wind 2007-2008 PE 40 36 2007~2008 40~36 PE 21.2~21.6 2007 145% 9600 06 25.03 30 30 2007-2008 2006 0.439 25-30 11~13.2 / 11/12
2007 518029 4008866338 0755 82449257 12/12