* 40 1 2016 1 Vol. 40 No. 1 January 2016 38 Population Research 1568 1542 4050 100028 Forecasting China s Labor Supply and Demand and the Unemployment Structure in the 13th Five-Year-Plan Period Zhang Juwei Cai Yifei Abstract The changes in labor supply and demand are important factors affecting economic growth.the purpose of this paper is to predict and analyze the trends in China s labor supply and demand during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and the longer period in the future.the scale and structure of the annual new entrants of labor force are predicted by accounting the numbers who are leaving from various stages of education while trends of labor demand are predicted according to employment elasticity from the experience of industrialization of developed countries.the results show that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period the scale of the new added labor would decrease slightly with an average annual increment of around 15. 68 million.at the same time labor demand would increase steadily with annually 15. 42 million employment opportunities.labor supply and demand would be roughly balanced however there would be increasing structural contradictions of the labor market.based on the analysis of labor supply and demand we provide an estimation of the unemployment scale of the 40 s and 50 s generations migrant workers and college graduates and discuss policy suggestions on promoting employment of college graduates. Keywords Labor Supply and Demand Structural Contradiction Employment Elasticity Population Projection Authors Zhang Juwei is Professor and Cai Yifei is Assistant Researcher Institute of Population and Labor Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.Email Zhangjw@ cass.org.cn * 14CJY014
1 39 1 2011 ~ 2014 1156 2011 ~ 2013 2200 6% 2013 38. 5% 2013 68. 1% 2010 54. 3% 13. 8 7% 2015 749 2010 119 1 2 2011 15 ~ 64 74. 4% 2010 0. 1 2014 73. 4% 15 ~ 64 2013 100582 2014 100398 184 1. 6 15 ~ 59 9. 22 2020 9. 10 2016 66. 78% 2020 65. 11% 16 2005 1 2015 ~ 2030
40 40 2006 2006 2010 16 2. 1 1 http / /data. stats. gov. cn Figure 1 1 Measuring Annual Increment of Labour Supply
1 41 1 6 1 =6-2013 2007 2013 0. 52% 2014 ~ 2030 1 2013 1% 99% 16 3 24 2 3 2013 6. 4% 1 - = - 2013 160 10. 1% 2014 ~ 2030 1 258 3 2013 36. 1% 3 2012 38. 8 4. 9% 3 4 2012 791 688. 8 87% 2 2012 4 1 2 2014 ~ 2030 Spectrum4. 0 2030 1. 6 75 80 Spectrum4. 0 http / /futuresgroup. com /files /softwaremodels /DemmanE. pdf
42 40 1 - = 611 5 2012 9. 4% 2030 15% 1 4 3 3 6 ~ 12 12 ~ 15 15 ~ 18 18 ~ 28 4 4 0. 30 0. 31 0. 38 0. 52 1 1 2015 1573 2025 2025 2013 35% 2020 40% 2030 45% 1 Table 1 Annual Increase of Labor Supply by Education level 2015 8. 68 17. 27 94. 25 147. 65 40. 07 98. 01 505. 63 606. 44 56. 02 1573. 35 2016 8. 48 16. 87 102. 61 160. 75 39. 78 97. 30 490. 95 621. 71 57. 86 1595. 63 2017 8. 19 24. 49 100. 22 157. 01 38. 63 94. 47 467. 63 624. 69 59. 76 1574. 42 2018 8. 46 25. 29 96. 80 151. 65 36. 79 89. 99 449. 53 623. 66 61. 73 1543. 24 2019 8. 68 25. 97 99. 98 156. 64 35. 37 86. 50 489. 41 605. 09 63. 77 1570. 75 2020 8. 57 25. 63 102. 65 160. 82 38. 51 94. 18 478. 03 582. 11 65. 88 1555. 72 2021 7. 44 22. 26 101. 34 158. 77 37. 61 91. 99 461. 70 555. 24 68. 05 1503. 78 2022 7. 28 21. 78 88. 00 137. 87 36. 33 88. 85 476. 90 532. 31 70. 30 1459. 00 2023 7. 17 21. 43 86. 10 134. 88 37. 52 91. 77 489. 61 512. 61 72. 62 1453. 10 2024 7. 09 21. 19 84. 72 132. 73 38. 52 94. 22 483. 37 510. 75 74. 26 1446. 25 2025 7. 05 21. 08 83. 76 131. 23 38. 03 93. 02 419. 74 511. 82 75. 94 1381. 09 2026 7. 28 21. 78 83. 35 130. 58 33. 02 80. 77 410. 66 515. 92 77. 65 1360. 43 2027 7. 30 21. 82 86. 10 134. 89 32. 31 79. 02 404. 11 523. 15 79. 40 1367. 52 2028 7. 47 22. 34 86. 26 135. 14 43. 20 77. 76 399. 53 533. 43 81. 20 1385. 73 2029 7. 48 22. 37 88. 30 138. 34 31. 43 76. 88 397. 54 546. 11 83. 03 1390. 90 2030 7. 55 22. 58 88. 45 138. 58 31. 28 76. 50 410. 66 559. 86 84. 90 1419. 76 1 9. 4% 15%
1 43 2. 2 1 3 2 1 /6 ~ 1 /4 2004 4 1 3 40% 70% 4 1 2012 82% 2 3 6 ~ 12 12 ~ 15 15 ~ 18 0. 39 0. 42 0. 60 2 2013 ~ 2030 2 2013 742 2020 583 3000 600 2030 528 23% 5% 2013 44. 8% 2020 37. 5% 2025 38% 1 2012 82%
44 40 Figure 2 2 Measuring Annual Increment of Migrant Workers 2 Table 2 Predication of Annual Increment of Migrant Workers % 2013 46. 7 170. 8 56. 7 468. 5 742. 3 44. 8 2014 40. 3 160. 4 36. 6 441. 9 679. 2 40. 2 2015 34. 6 151. 9 29. 2 404. 5 620. 2 39. 4 2016 33. 8 163. 7 24. 6 392. 8 614. 9 38. 5 2017 40. 9 157. 5 23. 4 374. 1 595. 9 37. 8 2018 42. 2 149. 8 22. 5 359. 6 574. 1 37. 2 2019 43. 3 152. 2 23. 3 371. 9 590. 8 37. 6 2020 42. 8 153. 8 22. 8 363. 3 582. 6 37. 5 2021 41. 9 149. 4 22. 0 350. 9 564. 2 37. 5 2022 41. 0 143. 9 22. 7 362. 4 570. 0 39. 1 2023 40. 1 138. 5 23. 3 372. 1 574. 1 39. 5 2024 39. 3 133. 3 23. 0 367. 4 563. 0 38. 9 2025 39. 1 128. 2 22. 5 359. 6 549. 4 39. 8 2026 40. 4 125. 3 22. 1 352. 0 539. 7 39. 7 2027 40. 4 127. 1 21. 6 344. 6 533. 7 39. 0 2028 41. 4 125. 0 21. 1 337. 3 524. 8 37. 9 2029 41. 4 125. 5 21. 0 335. 6 523. 5 37. 6 2030 36. 3 123. 3 21. 7 346. 6 527. 9 37. 2
1 45 3 2011 2010 1 2 3. 1 300 70% 1200 3 3 Table 3 Prediction of Annual Employment Increment by Sectors and Urban-Rural Areas 2001 ~ 2005 512-520 309 723 1033 1048-15 2006 ~ 2010 292-1102 815 579 1394 1260 134 2011 ~ 2013 291-1253 443 1101 1544 1184 360 3. 2 2001 4 2001 1 2 0 E t = E t - 1 1 + ε t g t E ε g ε* g ΔE t = E t - E t - 1 ε g
46 40 0. 469 Table 4 4 Changes in Sectoral Employment Elasticity in Three Periods 2001 ~ 2005 0. 072-0. 425 0. 172 0. 325 0. 255 2006 ~ 2010 0. 035-0. 819 0. 350 0. 201 0. 266 2011 ~ 2013 0. 046-1. 132 0. 225 0. 469 0. 355 3. 3 6 3 3 1930 ~ 1945 0. 25 ~ 0. 35 1950 0. 56 1985 0. 38 1955 1. 1 2000 0. 34 1841 ~ 1901 0. 7 ~ 0. 85 1945 ~ 1970 0. 3 1950 ~ 1975 0. 2 ~ 0. 36 10% 1955 10. 4% 1985 9. 3% 2000 10. 7% 1901 9. 1% 1965 10. 7% 1975 10. 0% 3 Hanson and Prescott 2002 2013 1989
1 47 Figure 3 3 Trends in Employment Elasticity in Selected Developed Countries 1950 1960 1990 2009 OECD 1955 1955 OECD GDP Maddison 2010
48 40 30% 3. 4 ε GDP 1995 GDP 2013 GDP 6639 20 60 20 80 1 6. 5% 2030 GDP 1. 8 1990 2010 1960 ~ 1990 1980 ~ 2010 30% 10% 0. 35 2013 0. 42 2030 0. 35 2014 ~ 2015 0. 39 2020 0. 37 2025 0. 37 2026 ~ 2030 0. 35 Table 5 5 Prediction of Employment in Non-agricultural Industries % % % 2015 0. 39 2. 9 2. 9 2. 8 1579 1561 1543 2016 0. 39 2. 8 2. 8 2. 7 1583 1557 1529 2017 0. 38 2. 8 2. 7 2. 6 1586 1551 1513 2018 0. 38 2. 7 2. 6 2. 5 1588 1543 1496 2019 0. 37 2. 6 2. 5 2. 4 1589 1534 1477 2020 0. 37 2. 6 2. 5 2. 4 1588 1524 1457 2021 0. 37 2. 5 2. 4 2. 3 1595 1521 1444 2022 0. 37 2. 4 2. 3 2. 2 1601 1516 1430 2023 0. 36 2. 4 2. 3 2. 1 1606 1511 1415 2024 0. 36 2. 3 2. 2 2. 1 1610 1505 1399 2025 0. 36 2. 3 2. 2 2. 0 1613 1498 1382 2026 0. 35 2. 2 2. 1 1. 9 1579 1457 1334 2027 0. 35 2. 2 2. 0 1. 8 1589 1456 1323 2028 0. 35 2. 1 2. 0 1. 8 1599 1454 1312 2029 0. 35 2. 1 1. 9 1. 8 1607 1452 1300 2030 0. 35 2. 1 1. 9 1. 8 1641 1480 1323 g 1 Middison 2010 1928 GDP 6569 1966 GDP 6506 1987 GDP 6916
1 49 2011 ~ 2015 8. 6% 2016 ~ 2020 7. 0% 2021 ~ 2025 5. 9% OECD 2012 ~ 2017 8. 9% 2018 ~ 2030 5. 5% 2020 7. 7% 2030 5. 8% 3 2016 ~ 2020 7% 6. 5% 6% 2021 ~ 2030 3 6% 5. 5% 5% 2013 ~ 2030 5 3 1585 1549 1511 2020 ~ 2030 1602 1489 1374 4 1 ΔL t ΔE t ΔU t ΔL t - ΔE t = ΔU t U t + 1 U t ΔU t + 1 U t = U t - 1 + ΔU t 0 T U 1 = U 0 + ΔU 1 U t = U t - 1 + ΔU t U T = U T-1 + ΔU T + T t = 0 ΔU t 1 1 2013 2323 6 2020 2013 2436 2020 2567 2021 2030 1885 2020 2020 2013 7 2013 3. 8 2030 6. 4 2. 6 2020 2015 5. 56% 2020 4. 97% 0. 1 5. 2% 2020 2021 4. 8% 2030 2. 86% 0. 2
50 40 6 Table 6 Prediction of Unemployment in Urban Areas 2015 1561 1573 12 2436 2016 1557 1596 39 2475 2017 1551 1574 24 2499 2018 1543 1543 0 2499 2019 1534 1571 36 2535 2020 1524 1556 32 2567 2021 1521 1504-17 2550 2022 1516 1459-57 2493 2023 1511 1453-58 2434 2024 1505 1446-59 2376 2025 1498 1381-117 2259 2026 1457 1360-96 2162 2027 1456 1368-88 2074 2028 1454 1386-68 2006 2029 1452 1391-61 1945 2030 1480 1420-60 1885 7 Table 7 Prediction of Unemployment Rate in Urban Areas % 2015 1561 41389 2436 43827 5. 56 2016 1557 42946 2475 45423 5. 45 2017 1551 44497 2499 46998 5. 32 2018 1543 46040 2499 48542 5. 15 2019 1534 47574 2535 50114 5. 06 2020 1524 49098 2567 51670 4. 97 2021 1521 50619 2550 53175 4. 80 2022 1516 52136 2493 54634 4. 56 2023 1511 53647 2434 56088 4. 34 2024 1505 55152 2376 57535 4. 13 2025 1498 56650 2259 58916 3. 83 2026 1457 58107 2162 60277 3. 59 2027 1456 59563 2074 61645 3. 36 2028 1454 61017 2006 63032 3. 18 2029 1452 62469 1945 64423 3. 02 2030 1480 63948 1885 65844 2. 86
1 51 2 2003 3 4050 4 2000 2010 50 50 2000 4 40 2010 40 34. 4% 2000 22. 1% 12 4050 Table 4 4 Unemployment Rate and Distribution of Unemployed Population by Age
52 40 1999 5 2000 50. 7% 2010 44% 28% 2000 ~ 2010 2000 10. 7% 2010 17. 4% Table 5 5 Distribution of Unemployment Population by Education Level 4 6 44. 0% 9. 6% 2010 2283 200 1 /3 Table 6 6 Distribution of Graduates without Job by Education Level 4
1 53 2. 56% 8 50 16 ~ 20 21 ~ 25 2010 1. 53 2. 56% 392. 6 17. 2% 8 Table 8 Unemployment Rate of Migrant Workers by Age Group and Sex % 16 ~ 20 7. 68 7. 53 7. 85 21 ~ 25 6. 05 5. 79 6. 35 26 ~ 30 3. 47 3. 06 3. 94 31 ~ 35 2. 51 2. 12 2. 96 36 ~ 40 2. 45 1. 99 2. 99 41 ~ 45 2. 17 1. 85 2. 54 46 ~ 50 2. 28 2. 12 2. 49 51 ~ 55 1. 87 2. 19 1. 40 56 ~ 60 1. 35 1. 67 0. 86 61 ~ 64 0. 73 0. 81 0. 62. 2010. 2014 4050 2014 ~ 2030 9 40 34. 4% 17. 4% 17. 2% 2014 ~ 2030 40 883 447 442 5 1500 ~ 1600 38% 42% 20%
54 40 1542 9 Table 9 Composition of Urban Unemployment 40 2014 2425 834 422 417 2015 2436 838 424 419 2016 2475 851 431 426 2017 2499 860 435 430 2018 2499 860 435 430 2019 2535 872 441 436 2020 2567 883 447 442 2021 2550 877 444 439 2022 2493 857 434 429 2023 2434 837 424 419 2024 2376 817 413 409 2025 2259 777 393 388 2026 2162 744 376 372 2027 2074 713 361 357 2028 2006 690 349 345 2029 1945 669 338 334 2030 1885 648 328 324 3 4050 4050 40 1 /3 840 ~ 890 420 ~ 450 1 /3 3 2 /3 3
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