2011 2 1 1 2 3 4 1. 100101 2. 100124 3. 100039 4. 650092 - - - 3 GDP U 20-30 60% 10% TK01 A 1002-9753 2011 02-0042 - 10 Analysis on Character and Potential of Energy Saving and Carbon Reducing by Structure Evolution in China ZHANG Lei 1 Li Yan - mei 2 Huan Yuan - xi 3 Wuan Ying - mei 4 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing 100101 China. 2. Institute of Recycling Economy Beijing University of Technology Beijing 100124 China 3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100039 4. College of Tourism & Geographical Sciences Yunnan Normal University Yunnan Kunming 650092 Abstract As one of the largest energy users and Greenhouse - gas GHG emission countries in the world China have aroused much interest in its pledged reduction of last year in Copenhagen. Our intent is to place that carbon emission reduction by industrial structure evolution and energy consumption structure changing. In order to release the characters and potentials of energy saving and carbon reducing by structure evolution in China three general models namely the industrial - energy interconnection model industrial - energy intensity interconnection model and the energy - carbon e- mission interconnection model are employed. There are three findings first increasing of energy use was determined 2010-08 - 20 2010-11 - 05 41071351 200809151 2010 1951-42
by industrial structure evolution from 1952 to 2007 and its influence effect was first acceleration and then deceleration second the effects of industrial structure evolution on energy intensity also was first acceleration and then deceleration but the results were much less important due to a strong performance of heavy - manufacture industry in the country s e- conomy third the correlation coefficient between energy structure and carbon emission was so lower because of the structure of energy supply dominated by coal totally. The structure evolution of industry and energy supply as estimated will play an important role in developing low carbon economy in the next twenty years or more. Their contribution degree will be 70% in which contribution degree of industrial structure will be 60% and contribution degree of energy structure will be 10%. This outcome implies that a basic path of developing low carbon economy in China is to speed up the structural evolutions of industrialization and energy supply. Key words low carbon economy industrial structure evolution energy consumption energy - supply structure 2 1952-2007 1 GDP 1 2007 76. 33% 1952 GDP 30% 90 2 50 3 1952-1980 1 ESD = P /P S /P T /P P S T 43
2011 2 1 35. 99% 43. 14% 1981-1990 3 1952-1980 60% 1990 10. 71% 5. 54 9. 40% 3 6% 1991-2007 1981-2000 3. 90 5. 35% 1991-2007 50 1981-1990 16. 78 5. 15% 1 44 2 1952-2007 1952
- 1 1981-1990 0. 51 / 1991-2007 1952-1980 1991-2000 4a 0. 51 /2001-2005 1981-2000 - 2 2001-2007 R2 = 0. 453 6 50 4b 3 1952-1980 1952-1980 GDP 1952 9. 06 / 1 5 1981-1990 3 1952-2007 4 - a 1952-1980 b 1981-2007 1 EEI = EU /ESD EU ESD 1 2 EEE = EE /ESD EE GDP ESD 1 45
2011 2 5 1952-2007 6-1952 - 2007 1952-1980 - 0. 96 9a 1981-2007 3% 7a 1981 - - 0. 43 2007 9b 7b 3. 3-1 3 2 - - 1952-2007 - 0. 67 8 2005 9. 1 / 1990 0. 77 2-3 1952-1980 8. 9 / 25% 1 CEEI = COE /EUSD COE EUSD EUSD = C /C O /C G /C H /C 1 C O G H 46
0. 79 4-8 10 5. 3 12. 7 26. 4 30% 50% - 70% 7 9. 1 / 30% 70% GDP 1 /4 11 - a. 1952-1980 b. 1981-2007 70% 2005 8-1952 - 2007 67. 0% 12 25% 9 - a. 1952-1980 b. 1981-2007 47
2011 2 10 U 6 2005 1990 50 11 2005 1990 5-8 12 2005 GDP 3-4 1. 20-30 GDP 7% GDP 2020 11 2030 20 1952 2020 40. 0 2030 53. 0 1952 2. 20-30 3% 2020 26. 0 36 2030 28. 0 40 48
2020 1. 56 2030 31% 36. 1 1. 64 2005 13 34. 2 3. 2010 2% 1. 57 1 2020 2. 3 0. 40 / GDP / 3. 3 / 2005 45. 0% 2030 1. 39 2020 GDP 11. 0 / 2. 05 / 2005 60% 67. 0% 40% 40 4. 36. 3 2010 2% 1. 57 2020 23. 5 2030 24. 7 / GDP 0. 19 / 2020 2020 0. 87 / GDP 48% 2030 0. 86 / 2005 12. 4 90% 10% 13 2005 GDP 3. 7 1952 3. 9% 74. 9% 21. 2% 25. 6 22. 5 69. 1% 21. 0% 2. 8% 1. 45 4. 20 / 0. 98 / GDP 4. 11 / 2010 5. 4 80% 33. 6 30. 8 1. 47 1 0. 03 / GDP 0. 03 / 2015 GDP 7. 8 0. 39 / 1 0. 15 67% 49
2011 2 50
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