CHINA SECURITIES RESEARCH 4000 08 1500 tiandonghong@csc.com.cn 010-85130599 hanmei@csc.com.cn 010-85130212 08-10 EPS 0.41 0.73 0.99 12 9.90 6 12.00 /% 1 3 12-4.3/5.5 33.7/54.4-59.9/6.2 12 / 26.13/4.90 121,277 A 56,350 120 55.79 3 1,081 40.78% 2007A 2008F 2009F 2010F 3,860.41 5,178.60 8,092.06 10,569.00 32.58% 34.15% 56.26% 30.61% 946.80 1,145.13 1,658.63 2,145.60 36.40% 20.95% 44.84% 29.36% ROE 367.76 500.83 886.77 1,203.73 EPS 74.94% 36.18% 77.06% 35.74% P/E 13.78% 8.38% 13.44% 16.18% P/B 0.382 0.413 0.731 0.993 EV/EBITDA 28.80 26.64 15.04 11.08 08.10.31 08.08.21 08.01.03 08
07 2500 07 7 5000t/d 4000t/d 4500t/d 4000t/d 7 6 08 09 09 08 4000 1 2008 t/d A 2008.11 5000 180 B 2008.12 5000 180 C 2008.9 5000 180 2008 2500 80 2008.10 4500 160 2008.10 4500 160 2008 4000 150 1090 09 4500t/d 09 2500t/d 4500t/d 5000t/d 1800t/d 09 5000 2 2009 t/d 2009 4000 150 2009 4500 160 2009 4500 160 2009 1800 60 2009 4500 160 2009 4500 160 2009.10 2500 80 2009 5000 180 2009 5000 180 1290 1
2010 3 2010 t/d 2010 4000 150 2010 4500 180 2010 4500 180 2010 4500 180 2010 4500 180 2010 4500 180 2010 4500 180 1230,,, 1 2
30% 12 2 1800 4500 10 107% 113% 1 11 113.34% 7.42% 2 3 4 5 1-12 430 3
6 4
4 07 07-08 09-10 4 07 % 136117 13640 14810 20.90% 17194 2100 1900 23.26% 7442 700 1000 22.84% 53293 5000 5100 18.95% 35576 4050 4450 23.89% 15164 1130 1720 18.79% 7448 660 640 17.45% 12 340 210 155 7 8 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 9 10 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 5
09 3 130 1.3 300 2008 40 2009 40 2010 50 11 6
07 2500 08 4000 2009 2010 5000 6000 2008 2009 2010 34.15% 56.26% 30.61% 08-10 EPS 0.41 0.73 0.99 12 09 7
2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F 2010F 2,911.84 3,860.41 5,178.60 34.15% 8,092.06 56.26% 10,569.00 30.61% 2,240.59 2,822.72 3,883.95 37.60% 6,040.68 55.53% 7,839.00 29.77% 150.90 198.96 264.11 32.74% 407.44 54.27% 525.28 28.92% 192.16 243.24 315.89 29.87% 461.25 46.01% 560.16 21.44% 160.61 200.91 160.88-19.92% 113.74-29.30% 137.54 20.92% 36.92 12.90 25.00 93.80% 15.00-40.00% 15.00 0.00% 166.17 364.78 532.93 46.10% 1,012.35 89.96% 1,428.49 41.11% 272.91 506.21 689.76 36.26% 1,221.29 77.06% 1,657.81 35.74% 210.22 367.76 500.83 36.18% 886.77 77.06% 1,203.73 35.74% NOPLAT 272.19 470.34 576.56 22.58% 935.78 62.30% 1,301.37 39.07% 729.23 1,009.19 1,346.44 33.42% 2,103.94 56.26% 2,747.94 30.61% 140.60 110.08 147.67 34.15% 230.75 56.26% 301.38 30.61% 277.51 677.90 1,066.30 57.29% 1,670.36 56.65% 2,454.26 46.93% 452.17 530.73 744.87 40.35% 1,158.49 55.53% 1,503.37 29.77% 1,857.45 2,795.91 3,797.09 35.81% 5,932.05 56.23% 8,010.71 35.04% 4,926.16 6,192.22 7,740.91 25.01% 8,208.36 6.04% 8,128.80-0.97% 6,783.61 8,988.13 11,538.00 28.37% 14,140.42 22.56% 16,139.51 14.14% 1,165.57 2,121.80 932.79-56.04% 1,900.38 103.73% 2,476.49 30.32% 398.09 506.80 638.46 25.98% 992.99 55.53% 1,288.60 29.77% 173.58 273.72 408.36 49.19% 618.76 51.52% 893.55 44.41% 2,738.57 3,951.52 3,103.84-21.45% 4,724.98 52.23% 5,945.41 25.83% 1,439.35 2,079.83 2,096.94 0.82% 2,329.35 11.08% 2,091.49-10.21% 208.92 288.75 361.11 25.06% 489.22 35.48% 663.13 35.55% 2,396.76 2,668.03 5,976.12 123.99% 6,596.87 10.39% 7,439.48 12.77% (881.12) (1,155.61) 693.25 N/A 1,207.07 74.12% 2,065.30 71.10% IC 4,983.61 6,674.28 8,528.46 27.78% 9,682.01 13.53% 10,360.64 7.01% 227.32 420.88 573.19 36.19% 1,014.89 77.06% 1,377.64 35.74% 367.35 381.11 0.00 N/A 532.55 N/A 579.57 8.83% 196.96 (274.49) 1,848.86 N/A 513.82-72.21% 858.23 67.03% 510.38 538.21 837.78 55.66% 922.27 10.09% 1,289.40 39.81% (153.07) (283.70) (1,975.00) N/A (985.00) N/A (485.00) N/A (233.28) 27.13 1,474.46 5334.81% 820.23-44.37% (160.40) N/A 124.03 281.64 337.25 19.74% 757.50 124.61% 644.00-14.98% 8
12 15 12 5 15 12-5 5 12 5 15 12 15 9
, 2004 2006 2003-2006 2003 47.91% 37 2004 50 3.56% 13 2005 19 8.98% 16.32 2006 Top30 180% 50 100010 200120 188 4 201 601 (8610) 8513-0588 (8621) 6880-5588 (8610) 6518-0322 (8621) 6880-5010 10