134 2009 7 1 2 (11 ; 21 ),,,,,,, ;, F06412 A Excessive Liquidity Knock2on Effects to the Securities Market Abstract : The currency supply level difference method should be t he first indi2 cator used to judge t he excess liquidity of macro2economy 1 Excess liquidity means t hat currency supply amount s exceed t he currency amount s needed by t he entity e2 conomic growt h1 The stock price index in China at present has been in high posi2 tion, and liquidity contraction has t he lagged effect on the stock price index for 1 year or for 2 years1 Therefore, China will continue to have bullish stock market s in 20081 In order to prevent t he stock price index f rom sharp fluct uations, even a steep fall, caused by liquidity change, management should predictably grasp t he intensity and rhythm of liquidity contraction1 Investors should also pay close attention to judgment about t he liquidity surplus situation of t he management depart ment s, es2 pecially t he cent ral bank, and t heir measures o n t he co nt ractio n intensit y and rhyt hm1 Key words : Excess Liquidity ; Money Supply ; Domestic Currency Revaluation
135 20 90,, 21,,, 2007 3 5,,,,,, 2007 1,, 2007 2007 2007,, M2 16 %,,, 20 (2007 ),, 2008 3,,,,,,,,,,, :,, ; (M2), ;,, (M0) (M1) (M2),,, Abeyrat na Gunasekarage (2004) 19852001, Andreas Humpe Peter Macmillan (2007),,,, 20 90 (2006), (1995 2003 ),,, (2007),,,
136 2009 7,,,,, 2006,,,,,,,,,, :,,,,,,, : ;,,,,,,,, GDP, (, 2007),??,,,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,, : = M2 / GDP,, 1,, ;
137 1,,,,,, : = - 1 = -,,,, M2 GDP,,,, BLOOMB ER G, WIND 11 20 80,,,, +,,,,,,,,, 21, 1985 100 2151 1989 3182,,,,,,,,,, 1984 1989, 8118 %16177 %10159 % 9 %11138 %9113 %, 1985 7 600, 1986 9 2505, 1987 8, 1918 %, 125117 %, 1093 2339,, 118178 %, 1987 10 1 4600,, 2298, 1988 9 26 8870 9 24,, 12 5119,, 1989 4,, 7137 %, 88 %, 9624, 1989 6 24,, 1985 636, 1990 2 28, 119831461, 17184 1987 7, 1989
138 2009 7 3,, 19851992 7 (1983 ) 1989 12 20,,,,,,,, 1990 2, 10 15 2565, 8 11000, 8014 % 1 : 1 1 :,, ( 1) 2, 19851991, 761192 1989 9624118, 13, 1990 4530116 1991 4600127, (19851989 ) (19891991 ),, 111014, 1011014 %,,, 1 TWSE Index ( %) ( %) 1984-12 - 31 838107 11 081780732 8118 1985-12 - 31 835112 11 167714477 16177 8159 1986-12 - 31 1039111 11 105903174 10159-6118 1987-12 - 31 233918 11 091836485 9118-1141 1988-12 - 30 5119111 11 113482031 11135 2116 1989-12 - 29 9624118 11 091372142 9114-2121 1990-12 - 31 4530116 11 049746853 4197-4116 1991-12 - 31 4600127 11 109561682 10196 5198,,,,,, 1989
139 1990,,, 2 : 2 TWSE TWSE 1 01525 ( ) 01181 8 8 01525 1 ( ) 01181 8 8,, 1 1989 2121 %, 1990, 31, 1971 210019 1989 38915187, 17 ( 2 ),, 1987 4, 26600, 26520 ; 1988, 38400 32700, 2, 17, 19, 128148 %204153 % 197109 %, 42183 % 17104 %39127 %,,,, 1979 1. 92, 1980 6115 19851989,,, 1014 %, 1012 %,, 1985 12 13113, 1987 9
140 2009 7 26000, 1989 12 29 38915187,, 49127 %,, 1989 4,,, 1990, 14309, 63 %,,, 20 70 80 (19711989 ) 20 90 3 (, ) : 3 3 :,, ( 3) 19831992, 10196 1989 38916, 3, 1990 23849, 1992 16925, (1983 1989 ) (19891992 ),, 11035, 315 %,,, 3 Nikkei Close ( %) ( %) 1983-12 - 30 10196 11 050109495 5101 1984-12 - 31 11543 11 035089424 3151-1150 1985-12 - 31 13083 11 047418428 4174 1123 1986-12 - 31 18821 11 048225785 4182 0108 1987-12 - 31 21564 11 061344538 6113 1131 1988-12 - 30 30159 11 037828141 3178-2135 1989-12 - 29 38916 11 054450474 5145 1166 1990-12 - 31 23849 11 027588984 2176-2169 1991-12 - 31 22984 01 996008189-0140 - 3116 1992-12 - 31 16925 01 990751048-0192 - 0153
141,,,,,, 1988 1990 1991 1992,, (0158) 1989,,,,,, 2 1988 2135 %,, 1990 40 %, 11, 20 90,, 21,,,, 20012004, 2004 1109 1104, 1106, 614 %,,,,, 2005, 2004 1104 1106,,, 4 : 4,, 2002 2003,,, 2004, 2005,,, Humpe Peter Mac2 millan (2007),
142 2009 7 :,,,,,,,, 1 2 20 80, : 111014, 11035, 1105,,,, 4 : 4 1985 (1123 %) (8159 %) 2005 (21 41 %) 1986 (0108 %) ( - 6118 %) 2006 ( - 1124 %) 1987 (1131 %) ( - 1141 %) 2007 ( - 0195 %) 3 1988 ( - 21 35 %) (2116 %) 1989 3 (1166 %) ( - 2121 %) 1990 ( - 21 69 %) ( - 4116 %) 1991 ( - 31 16 %) (5198 %) : 3,,,,,,, 21,,,,,,, : (1) ( Franco Modigliani, 1971), (w), (L R), (C) ( Y),,,,,, 2004 0197, 2005, 2004 (0197) 1103,,
143,, 2006 2007 130143 % 96166 %,, A 2005 1 1 69496955, 2006 2007 2008 1 1 70342764 74549119 112264530 (2) q (J ames Tobin, 1969),,,,, WIND, 2006 33543411, 2005 14138 %, 2738193365, 88115 %,, (3),,,,,,,,,, 5 5,,,, 5 (4) (Ben Bernanke Mark Gertler, 1995),,,,,,, 6,,,,,,,,, (5) Ralp h Chami (1999),,,,, 2005,,,,,
144 2009 7 6 5 ( %) ( ) A () 2005 10116-8133 7189178 70342764 2006 10218 130143 8796106 74549119 2007 10615 96166,, (),,,,,,, : 7
145,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, [ 1 ] Abeyratna Gunasekarage Anirut Pisedtasalasai, M acroeconomic I nf l uence on the S tock M arket : Ev2 i dence f rom an Emerging M arket in S outh A sia [J ], Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Vol13, No1 3, 285304, 20041 [ 2 ] Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, Can macroeconomic variables ex plain long term stock market movements? A com parison of the US and J apan, http : / / ideas1 repec1org/ p/ san/ cdmawp/ 07201 html, 20071 [3 ] :,2006 9 [4 ] :[J ],2007 2 7 [5 ] :[J ], 2007 4 [6 ] : : [J ], 2007 [7 ] :, http : / / www1crcpp1org/ cpipp _ files/ 200711260 91841340651pdf 6 [8 ] : [J ], 2003 [9 ] :[ N ], 2006 12 9 [10 ] : [J ], 2007 11 [11 ] :[J ], 2004 2 ( : ; : )