, (, 2002).,,. 2002, 16 (), 9, 10, 109.,, 9, 2 (), 7, 30 %(, 2003).,, , 1 557,. 1, (, 2003). ( scenario eart hquake lo ss model

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download ", (, 2002).,,. 2002, 16 (), 9, 10, 109.,, 9, 2 (), 7, 30 %(, 2003).,, , 1 557,. 1, (, 2003). ( scenario eart hquake lo ss model"

奥坪阙
9 years ago
Views:

1 27 5 Vol. 27, No (551560) ACTA SEISMOLO GICA SIN ICA Sep., 2005 : (2005) ) 1) 2) 1) ; 2) ; , 4 ( 2) ;, 2002,,.,, 30 % , 4. 1, GDP %.,,. : P : A, (, 1991, 2002).,,,.,,., 70 %, (, 1995 ;,, 2003)..,. 5, , 5. 0 MS < / 10 5 m 2 ; MS / 10 5 m 2,.,, ; 20, , , 7. 4, , ( ), ,

2 , (, 2002).,,. 2002, 16 (), 9, 10, 109.,, 9, 2 (), 7, 30 %(, 2003).,, , 1 557,. 1, (, 2003). ( scenario eart hquake lo ss model) (, 1999 ;,, 2003 ;, 1997 ;, 2000),,.,.,,.,., Risk Management Solutions,, , ,,. t E t Et = P ( Ii B k) B k Ii d f j P (d f j Ii, B k) (d f j B k) V B k (1), Et, B k, Ii, d f j, V B k B k, P( Ii B k) t B k I i, P(d f j Ii, B k) B k Ii d f j.,, Et = B k k i D k, (2) d f j P (d f j I, B k) (d f j B k) V B k (2) D k = d f j P (d f j I, B k) (d f j B k) (3) Risk Management Solutions What If t he 1923 Eart hquake Strikes Again? A Five Prefecture Tokyo Re2 gion Scenario, 84.

3 5 : 553 Et = B k ( Dk V B k ) (4) n ( ), E = [ n B k ( D k) n (V B k ) n ] (5), (V B k ) n n ; ( D k) n n k, ( Dk) n : ;. (5),,. 1 1.,,,,..,,. 4 : 1) (portfolio). (exposure),,,. 2) (vulnerabilty).,., 2. 3) (scenario eart hquake record).,,,. 4) (losses and yearly exceedence f requency). (5),,,.

4 ( ) ( MS 4. 0) ( , MS 4. 7) (, 1995 ;, 1999),,,, ().,,,,,.,, (, 2002),, MS 5 398, ,, ( ),. ( ) ( ) 10 (, 1996 ;, 2001),, ,. : () () () ( ) () () , 87 % (, 2002).,. ( ) ( ),,.,., 4 : , ,, ,

5 5 : 555,, 600 / m / m 2., , : / m , 20,.,.,,.,,, 2,., 15, ( x) ( Pg ) 159 ( ), 2., R %, (7) Pg, max = ( x) ( Pg) Pg = x (7), 30 % 70 %, 15 % 85 %. 4 P1 = 0. 3 Pg (8) P2 = 0. 7 Pg (9) P3 = (1 - Pg) (10) P4 = (1 - Pg) (11) ( x) (7) Pg, (8) (11) 1 4, , 4, 4 D, , ,

6 (1995),,. 3,,,, 35 %.,, 55 %,,,. 3 4 (a) ; (b) ; (c) ; (d).,.,,, (, 1997).,,,.,,, ;,,,., ;,,,.,,,,,. 2. 4,,., 1990 (, 1991) (12) ; (2000), [(1321), (1322) ].

7 5 : 557 I = M ln ( d + 16) 2 = (12), M, I d km. Ia = M lg ( d + 26) = (1321) Ib = M lg ( d + 8) = (1322), (12),. 2, (13). 25, 21 (12). (12) 105 E, 105 E, 105 E,., (12). 2. 5,,, 398, (5) , (2). 2, 79 12, MS 5 22 N / ( ) E / ( ) / km 3 / / (37391) %( %) (6051) %( %) (9906) %( %) (15088) %(1088 %) (12636) %( %) (186558) %( %) (116365) %( %) (7241) %( %) (6240) %( %) (1535) %( %) (1414) %( %) (11126) %( %) (19927) %( %) (11121) %(109 %) (167861) %( %) (18339) %(129 %) (10592) %(91. 5 %) (3655) %(6. 5 %) (70595) %( %) (17789) %( %) (3336) %( %) (8556) %( %) (3693) %(47. 3 %) (48322) %(76. 6 %) : = ( - ) /,. 3 (13).

8 , 21, % , 6. 9,, , , 20,, ( 15),. 1, , 100., ,,.,, 60 %..,,,,. 398, , , 90, , 1/ %, 2/ %., (4). 4 4, 500 a 240, 100 a , (,, 1996), 80 %. 4. 1, 2002 GDP %.,,,.. 7,.,. 7. 7, 2002, 207, 2002 GDP % ; 1970, (, 1996), GDP % ,,

9 5 : a,.,?, ,,,.,,.,,.,.,,, , 4 ;, 2002,,.,, 30 %. 398., 4. 1, 2002 GDP %.,,.,,,., 80 %..,,,,.,,,., [J ]., (10) : 11,, [J ]., 19 (6) : ,,, [J ]., 15 (2) : 97105, [J ]., (1) : [J ]., 4 (1) : (1990) [ M]. :, , ( ) [ M]. :, ( ) [ M ]. :, (2002) [ M]. :, 413

10 560 27,,, [ M ]. :, [ M ]. :, [J ]., 11 (3) : [J ]. (),, 1720,,, [J ]., 16 (2) : [J ]., (2) : 16, [J ]., (11) : 510,,, [ M]. :, [ M]. :, 415 [ M]. :, ( ) [ M]. :, ( , M S 4. 7) [ M ]. :, THE HOUSING LOSS ASSESSMENT OF RURAL VILLAGES CAUSED BY EARTHQUA KE DISASTER IN Y UNNAN PROVINCE Wang Ying 1) Shi Peijun 1) Wang Jingai 2) 1) Key L aboratory of Environmental Change and N atural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China ; College of Resources Science and Technology, Bei j ing N ormal Universit y, B ei j ing , China 2) College of Geog rap hy and Remote S ensing S ciences ; Key L aboratory of Regional Geography of Beijing N ormal Universit y, Bei jing , China Abstract : Based on the assessment report of destructive housings caused by more t han 20 earthquakes occurred in Yunnan Province in , t he vulnerability models of 4 types housings of rural resident s in Yunnan province are set up. The scenario eart hquake disaster lo ss simulation model are used to simulate the housing loss if t he historical eart h2 quakes t hat occurred in since AD in 886 Yunnan Province reoccurs in The analysis of deviation shows t he simulation deviation of t he usual eart hquakes is less t han 30 % and t he met hod is high practicality. Meanwhile, t he simulation result of 398 historical eart hquakes in Yunnan Province shows t hat t he annual economic loss caused by eart hquake is about RMB billion Yuan t hat is t he % of GDP of Yunnan Province for the year. Be2 cause t he average living area of everybody and t he p rice of t he housing increase year by year, if t he historical destructive eart hquake reoccurs in today, t he loss of Yunnan Prov2 ince will be greater t han in t ho se year s. The government of Yunnan Province must pay more attention to t he improving capability for disaster prevention and reduction in rural ar2 eas. Key words : eart hquake disaster ; loss assessment ; scenario eart hquake ; rural village ; Yun2 nan Province

11 . 1996, , ; 2004,.,,, ,.., ; 2004, ;.., , : ; 2005 : Vol. 25, No. 2 ; Vol. 20, No. 4 ; Vol. 25, No. 4 ; Vol. 21, No. 3 ; Vol., 20, No. 2 ; Vol. 22, No. 5.., 22 2.

,,?,,, (1847 ),, :,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,, 1995, :, 1995, , 1976 ( ),

,? (1794 1857),,,,,,,,,,, :,,,, 200,, 80 :,,,,, 20,, 107 ,,?,,, (1847 ),, :,,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,, 1995, 32 34 :, 1995, 192 210, 1976 ( ), 739 741 108 ,!, : :,,,,,,,,, :, :,,,, :,,,,,,,, : : :,,!,,,,,