機構股票研究 中國人壽 (2628.HK) 行業龍頭投資收益大幅上升 香港 保險 公司簡報 21 May 2015 要點回顧 中國人壽 ( 以下或簡稱 集團 )2015 年 1 季度報顯示, 今年 1 季度末中國人壽的股東應占溢利約達人民幣 122.71 億元, 同比大幅上升 69.77%, 折合每股收益人民幣 0.43 元, 好於我們此前預期 ; 集團資產保持穩定增長, 期內總資產較 2014 年末上升 2.2% 至人民幣 2.30 萬億元, 淨資產約達人民幣 3,020.75 億元, 折合每股淨資產達人民幣 10.69 元, 較 2014 年末上升 6.3%; 作為中國最大的機構投資者之一, 中國人壽努力提高其資產管理的效率, 在近期的牛市中投資收益大幅提升 2014 年末其淨投資收入同比增長約 12.96% 至人民幣 935.48 億元, 而今年 1 季度末該類收入則大幅上升約 58.78% 至人民幣 383.86 億元 尤其是通過損益表反映公允價值變動的金融資產的公允價值收益淨額同比強勁增長約 269 倍至人民幣 28.99 億元, 而去年同期僅為人民幣 1.04 億元, 大幅高於我們預期 ; 有鑒於穩定的業績表現, 以及對市場未來表現的樂觀預期, 我們上調中國人壽 12 個月目標價至 52.70 港元, 較最新收盤價高出於約 40%, 相當於 2016 年每股收益的 15.1 倍及每股淨資產的 3.3 倍 維持中國人壽 買入 評級 ( 現價截至 5 月 19 日 ) 行業龍頭未來利潤保持高增速 中國人壽的保費收入穩定增長, 截止今年 1 季度末, 其毛承保保費收入約達人民幣 1,534.50 億元, 同比增長 16.09%, 淨承保保費收入同比增長 16.55% 至人民幣 1,503.10 億元 我們預計 2015 年隨著良好的市場環境, 全年集團的保費收入增速將高於 2014 年 根據中國保監會最新的統計資料顯示, 截止 2015 年 4 月末, 中國人壽的壽險累計保費收入同比增長 17.57% 至人民幣 1738 億元 隨著 2014 年牛市行情的提振, 中國人壽的投資收益出現大幅上升, 成為集團的主要盈利貢獻之一 截止去年 12 月末, 集團的投資資產總額約達人民幣 2.10 萬億元, 較 2013 年末大幅增長 13.6%, 其中 44.77% 為債券類資產, 股票權益類資產比例約為 11.23% 淨投資收益率為 4.71%, 總投資收益率為 5.36% 而到今年 1 季度末, 集團的投資資產總額上升了約 2.4% 至人民幣 2.15 萬億元 淨投資收益率及總投資收益率分別為 4.65% 及 7.67% 2014 年末其淨投資收入同比增長約 12.96% 至人民幣 935.48 億元, 而今年 1 季度末該類收入則大幅上升約 58.78% 至人民幣 383.86 億元 尤其是通過損益表反映公允價值變動的金融資產的公允價值收益淨額同比強勁增長約 269 倍至人民幣 28.99 億元, 而去年同期僅為人民幣 1.04 億元 我們預計,2015 年全年中國人壽的投資收益仍將保持強勁增長的趨勢 有鑒於穩定的保費收入增長, 以及強勁增長的投資收入, 我們對中國人壽的業務表現抱有信心, 同時, 考慮到對 2015 年市場表現的樂觀預期, 我們上調中國人壽 12 個月目標價至 52.70 港元, 較最新收盤價高出於約 40%, 相當於 2016 年每股收益的 15.1 倍及每股淨資產的 3.3 倍 維持中國人壽 買入 評級 ( 現價截至 5 月 19 日 ) 風險 投資業務收入的盈利波動性較大, 增速低於預期 ; 資本市場環境惡化, 短期內股價大幅下跌 買入 ( 維持 ) 現價 : HK$ 37.70 ( 現價截至 5 月 19 日 ) 目標價 : HK$ 52.70 (+40%) 公司資料 普通股股東 ( 百萬股 ) : 7,441 市值 ( 百萬港元 ) : 280,532 52 周最高價 / 最低價 ( 港元 ) : 41.00/ 19.72 主要股東, % 中國人壽保險 68.37 HKSCC Nominees Limited 25.83 香港中央結算 0.16 股價表現, % 1 個月 3 個月 1 年 中國人壽 1.48 16.72 88.69 恒生指數 HSI 2.21 11.50 21.28 股價 & 恒生指數 HSI 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 19-May-14 19-Jun-14 19-Jul-14 19-Aug-14 19-Sep-14 19-Oct-14 19-Nov-14 19-Dec-14 19-Jan-15 19-Feb-15 19-Mar-15 Volume, mn 2628 hk equity HSI Source: Phillip Securities (HK) Research 財務資料 Key Financial Summary 19-Apr-15 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 FYE 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F Net earned premiums (RMB mn) 324,813 330,105 359,814 395,796 Net Profit, adj. (RMB mn) 24,765 32,211 54,778 79,094 EPS, adj. (RMB) 0.88 1.14 1.94 2.80 P/E (X) 34.4 26.5 15.6 10.8 BVPS (RMB) 7.80 10.05 11.76 12.83 P/B (X) 3.9 3.0 2.6 2.4 DPS (RMB) 0.30 0.40 0.68 0.99 Div. Yield 1.0% 1.3% 2.3% 3.3% Source: Bloomberg, PSR est. *All multiples & yields based on current market price Source: Company reports, Phillip Securities Est. 研研研析析陳星宇 (+ 86 21 51699400-105) chenxingyu@phillip.com.cn 19-May-15 Page 1 PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH
中國人壽壽險保費收入增長 Growth rate yoy 120.00% 100.00% Conmulative premium income of China Life Monthly premium income of China Life 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% -20.00% -40.00% -60.00% Jan/07 May/07 Sep/07 Jan/08 May/08 Sep/08 Jan/09 May/09 Sep/09 Jan/10 May/10 Sep/10 Jan/11 May/11 Sep/11 Jan/12 May/12 Sep/12 Jan/13 May/13 Sep/13 Jan/14 May/14 Sep/14 Jan/15 Source: Company, Phillip Securities (HK) Research 中國人壽年化投資收益率 Return 14.00% Quarterly total investment return (TIR) Annualized TIR 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Source: Company, Phillip Securities (HK) Research Page 2 PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH
財務報告 FYE FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15F FY16F Valuation Ratios P/E (X) 77.1 34.4 26.5 15.6 10.8 P/B (X) 3.9 3.9 3.0 2.6 2.4 Dividend Payout ratio 35.77% 34.24% 35.10% 35.09% 35.24% Dividend Yield 0.46% 0.99% 1.33% 2.25% 3.27% Per share data (RMB) EPS, reported 0.39 0.88 1.14 1.94 2.80 EPS, adj. 0.39 0.88 1.14 1.94 2.80 DPS 0.14 0.30 0.40 0.68 0.99 BVPS 7.82 7.80 10.05 11.76 12.83 EVPS 11.94 12.11 16.09 22.22 31.65 Grow th Net earned premiums 1.2% 0.8% 1.6% 9.0% 10.0% Total income 0.2% 12.5% 5.5% 17.3% 21.3% Net profit for the year -39.0% 121.9% 30.0% 69.6% 44.2% Net profit of equity holders of the company -39.7% 123.9% 30.1% 70.1% 44.4% Key Ratios Net profit / Net earned premiums 3.43% 7.62% 9.76% 15.22% 19.98% Income Statement (RMB mn) FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15F FY16F Net earned premiums 322,126 324,813 330,105 359,814 395,796 Net realised gains/(losses) on financial assets (26,876) 5,793 7,120 7,974 9,091 net fair value gains on assets at fair value through income( (313) 137 5,808 9,002 13,504 Net Investment income 73,243 82,816 93,548 135,645 203,467 Other income 3,305 4,324 4,185 4,604 5,156 Total income 371,485 417,883 440,766 517,039 627,013 Insurance benefits and claims (300,562) (312,288) (315,294) (343,670) (381,474) Interest credited to investment contracts (2,032) (1,818) (1,958) (2,154) (2,434) Policyholder dividends resulting from participation in profits (3,435) (18,423) (24,866) (31,083) (45,070) Underw riting and policy acquisition costs (27,754) (25,690) (27,147) (36,648) (56,805) Administrative expenses (23,283) (24,805) (25,432) (27,975) (32,451) Other operating expenses (5,879) (7,896) (8,877) (10,652) (13,316) Statutory insurance fund (609) (637) (701) (806) (927) Total expenses (363,554) (391,557) (404,275) (452,989) (532,476) Associates investment gains /(Losses) 3,037 3,125 3,911 4,107 4,476 Net profit before income tax expenses 10,968 29,451 40,402 68,157 99,013 Income taxes 304 (4,443) (7,888) (13,015) (19,523) Income taxes rate 0.00% 15.09% 19.52% 19.10% 19.72% Net profit for the year 11,272 25,008 32,514 55,142 79,490 Minority interests 211 243 303 364 396 Net profit of equity holders of the company 11,061 24,765 32,211 54,778 79,094 Dividend 3,957 8,479 11,306 19,220 27,869 Source: Company, Phillip Securities (HK) Research Estimate Financial figures as at 19 May 2015) Page 3 PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH
Ratings History 60 50 40 30 20 Market Price Target Price Source: Bloomberg, PSR 10 Oct-15 Jul-15 Apr-15 Jan-15 Oct-14 Jul-14 Apr-14 Jan-14 Oct-13 Jul-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan-12 1 2 3 4 5 PSR Rating System Total Returns Recommendation Rating > +20% Buy 1 +5% to +20% Accumulate 2-5% to +5% Neutral 3-5% to -20% Reduce 4 <-20% Sell 5 Remarks We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk rew ard profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation Page 4 PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH
PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price +5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20%upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -20% Reduce 4-5% to -20% downside from the current price <-20% Sell 5 >20%downside from the current price We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd ( Phillip Securities ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. 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SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Raffles City Tower 250, North Bridge Road #06-00 Singapore 179101 Tel : (65) 6533 6001 Fax : (65) 6535 6631 Website: www.poems.com.sg HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Exchange Participant of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) 22776600 Fax (852) 28685307 Websites: www.phillip.com.hk INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A Jakarta 10220 Indonesia Tel (62-21) 57900800 Fax (62-21) 57900809 Website:www.phillip.co.id THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Thailand Tel (66-2) 6351700 / 22680999 Fax (66-2) 22680921 Websitewww.phillip.co.th UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Capital Limited 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44-20) 7426 5950 Fax (44-20) 7626 1757 Website: www.kingandshaxson.com MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block B Level 3 Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel (603) 21628841 Fax (603) 21665099 Website: www.poems.com.my JAPAN PhillipCapital Japan K.K. Nagata-cho Bldg., 8F, 2-4-3 Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0014 Tel (81-3) 35953631 Fax (81-3) 35953630 Website:www.phillip.co.jp CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd No 436 Hengfeng Road, Greentech Unit 604, Postal code 200070 Tel (86-21) 51699400 Fax (86-21) 63532643 Website: www.phillip.com.cn FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Limited 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance 75008 Paris France Tel (33-1) 45633100 Fax (33-1) 45636017 Website: www.kingandshaxson.com UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL 60604 USA Tel +1.312.356.9000 Fax +1.312.356.9005 AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 12, 15 William Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel (613) 96188238 Fax (613) 92002272 Website: www.phillipcapital.com.au PHILLIP SECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH 6 P a g e