3 1 ChinaJournalofEconomics Vol.3,No.1:149-178 March2016 1 : 2, 3 4,, GDP,,,,,, : ( ) ; ( ); ; ; DOI:10.16513/j.cnki.cje.20160314.001 0, 20 80,, 1 1989 2, : 1 (71473089) (WT1410) (2014ssxm61) ; 2,,,E-mail:d zq@163.com 3,,E-mail:linwenlian@m.scnu.edu.cn 4,,E-mail:xiahaiwei2005@126.com 1 2, 251-252 ; 3, 331.,1993.
150,, 1,, ;,, ( ),,,,, : 1992,,1992,,,, 2 1992,, :,,, 3,,,,,, (, ) 1992, 1 2 3 3, 284.,1993. (1987 1 28 ), [2001]14
3 1 151,, : :, ;1992,, ( ), 1992 ( 1 ) 1 1,,,, : (1983) (1986) (1989) (1996) (1999) (1999 2000 2001) (2001) (2008) (2009) 1992, ( ), ( ) 1 (1978 2012) 1 GDP ( ), :,,, :, ( ), ( ), : 1,,
152 ( FDI) : 1 ; 2, ; 3 ; 4, ; 5, ; 6 ; 1,,, (Younisetal., 2008), VenierisandGupta(1986) Gupta(1990), (politicalinstability),,barro(1991) 98 1960 1985, [ (politicalassassinations) (revolution) (coup)] Alesinaetal.(1996) 113 1950 1982,, AisenandVeiga(2010) GMM 169 1960 2004, [ (cabinet change) ],, Younisetal.(2008) 9, 1990 2005, (economicfreedom) Jong-A-Pin(2009) 26 : (mass civilprotest); (politicaly motivatedaggression); (instabilitywithinthepoliticalregime); (instabilityofpolitical regime) 98 1984 2003, CamposandKaranasos(2007) 1896 2000,
3 1 153,, : : (informalpoliticalstability), (formalpoliticalstability), ;,, ;, Munoz(2009) 1983 2000, ;, (Asteriouand Price,2001) (Asteriouand Siriopoulos,2000),,Drazen(2000), ;, (AlesinaandPeroti,1996),, (AisenandVeiga,2010), FDI(Bradaetal,2006), (AisenandVeiga,2006), (Drazen,2000),, (AisenandVeiga,2010),, (Santhirasegaram,2008),,,, (AisenandVeiga,2010), CamposandNugent(2002),,,, :, ;,, GrochovaandKouba(2011) : (elite) ( ) ( ),, Jong-A-Pin(2009), EasterlyandRebelo (1993) Sala-i-Martin(1997),, ( Jong-a-Pin,2009; Younisetal.,2008) Younisetal.(2008),
154,,,, 2,, : (AisenandVeiga,2010) (LondreganandPoole,1990) (Barro,1991;Camposand Nugent,2002) (Alesinaetal.,1996),, (discriminantanalysis) (principalcomponentsanalysis) (exploratoryfactoranalysis) (AlesinaandPeroti,1996;Gupta,1990),,Jong-A-Pin (2009) 26,, (Knight,2013),,,,,, 1, 1,1952 2012,,,,,,, ( ), ( ),
3 1 155,, : :,,,,, 20 80,,, 1, :, 2 1987,, (1992 ) 1982,,,,, 3 1992,, : ;,,, :, 4 5 6 7 8 9 瑏瑠, 瑏瑡 : 1 2 3 4 3. 194 324 201.,1993. 3. 305.,1993. 3. 286.,1993.. [N].,1997-02-06(4). 5 [N].,2008-07-31(4). 6. [N]., 2005-05-28. 7. [N].,1996-08-12. 8. [N]..2004-04-24(4). 9. [N].,1999-08-25(3). 瑏瑠. [N].,1992-02-25. 瑏瑡. [N].,2005-02-25(9).
156, 1, 2 3 4 5 6,,,,,,,, : (1983) (1986) (1989) (1996) (1999) (1999 2000 2001) (2001) (2008) (2009), ( ) ( ), 5,,,,, 5 2 1978 2012 :,,,, : 1,. 2010 3 11 [N].,2010-3-19(2). 2,. [N].,2008-03-28(4). 3. [N].,2009-07-07(1). 4. [N].,1999-05-13(9). 5. [N].,1999.08.06. 6. [N].,1989-07-07.
3 1 157,, : : ; 1 2,1992 ( ) 2 ;1992,,,, 1992,,, 4.2,, 2 ( : ) 3 3.1 (1992 ) (1992 ),, 1, :,,,. 70 [N].,1998-07-15(12) 2000 1980, 2, : (. [N]..1989-11-01(1))
158 Hsiangetal.(2011) (, ), Hsiangetal. (2011), : yit =β 0 + β 1instabt +γxit +θit+ μ i +εit (1), yit i t GDP( ) GDP ; instabt t, ;Xit ;θit, ; μ i ;εit, β, 1 Xit, :(1) (2004),, ;(2), (2004), GDP ;(3), GDP ;(4), ;(5) GDP ;(6) GDP ;(7) GDP ;(8) GDP, ;(9) ;(10) ;(11) 3.2 1985 2012 30,,,,, 828,, (1978 2012), (1992 ) (1992 ) ; ( )
3 1 159,, : : ; 1 1 log GDP GDP GDP 840 7.66 0.94 5.80 10.42 GDP 840 11.23 3.98-9.20 41.50 (1992 ) (1992 840 [ ] 3.1907 5.0065 0.2347 18.6196 ) ( : ) log /, 840-0.36 1.19-3.18 2.91 - - 840 0.15 0.15-0.49 1.40 840 0.02 0.04-0.25 0.47 840 0.93 1.08 0.06 6.90 /GDP 836 0.29 0.44 0.02 3.72 /GDP 832 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.24 /GDP 840 0.17 0.13 0.05 1.29 /GDP 840 2.05 0.83 0.75 6.50 840 0.70 0.14 0.21 0.96 840 0.27 0.10 0.10 0.76 / ( : km/ ) 840 22.09 26.45 1.69 211.95 / ( : 715 6.20 2.51 0.81 19.86 ) / ( : 710 6.67 3.20 0.72 23.45 ) 767 3.16 1.07 0.20 7.72 / 651 0.11 0.06 0.03 0.42 + 540 0.13 0.07 0.04 0.28 / : 28 (1985 2012), 30 4 4.1 2 (1)~ (3) GDP ; (4)~(6) GDP (1) (4)
160 ; (2) (5), ; (3) (6), 2 log GDP GDP (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) -0.0017 ** -0.0029 *** -0.0028 *** -0.329 *** -0.262 *** -0.269 *** (-2.18) (-5.62) (-6.19) (-12.14) (-10.93) (-11.06) log 0.349 *** 0.327 *** (10.06) (10.35) 7.916 *** 7.846 *** (4.07) (4.08) 4.813 ** 4.862 ** (2.55) (2.41) 0.053 *** 0.035 *** 2.001 *** 1.735 *** (4.96) (2.88) (4.53) (4.11) 0.044 * 0.060 ** -1.070-0.281 (1.89) (2.64) (-0.66) (-0.18) 0.515 ** 0.537 ** 29.578 *** 29.567 *** (2.41) (2.48) (3.08) (3.86) 0.035-0.013-0.892-0.612 (0.33) (-0.17) (-0.41) (-0.19) -0.042 ** (-2.63) -1.253 *** (-2.99) -0.120 0.033 (-1.01) (0.01) 0.159-13.305 ** (1.48) (-2.09) 0.001 ** 0.012 (2.06) (0.64) YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES 5.222 *** 6.808 *** 6.847 *** 9.892 *** 15.050 *** 15.166 *** (741.49) (45.45) (50.49) (41.52) (27.63) (5.05) N 840 828 828 840 828 828 R-square 0.992 0.998 0.998 0.382 0.524 0.535 : t,,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01
3 1 161,, : :, 2,, (1) 5%, 1%, ( ), ( ), :, GDP, : ( ) ;, GDP,,,, (3) (6), : ( 2), GDP 0.56%, GDP 0.538% 2,, ; ;,, ( ) ( ), ;, 4.2,, 1992 1992,, 3 (1)~(3), +, GDP ; (4)
162 ( ) GDP (5) ( ), (6)~(10) 1 (3) (6),, 1 3, ( GDP) 3 ( ) log GDP GDP (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) -0.0100*** (-6.52) -0.796 *** (-11.17) + -0.0029 *** (-6.29) -0.0026 *** (-6.43) -0.253 *** (-10.02) -0.220 *** (-10.79) ( ) -0.0105 *** (-5.52) -0.0019 *** (-5.46) -0.923 *** (-9.65) -0.125 *** (-6.25) YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES N 828 828 828 828 828 828 828 828 828 828 R-square 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.511 0.487 0.508 0.509 0.473 : t,,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 (1)~(5) 2 (3) ; (6)~(10) 2 (6),,, 1992,, ;, ;, 1992, 4 1992 1985 1992 1993 2012, (1) (2), ; (5) (6),
3 1 163,, : :, 2008,, 4 (2) 2008, 4 (3) (7),, 1% (1985 2012) 2008,,1989, 1991, 4 (4) (8) 1989 1991,, 4 ( ) log GDP GDP (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1985 1992 1993 2012 1993 2007 t 1989 t 1991 1985 1992 1993 2012 1993 2007 t 1989 t 1991-0.0012 *** -0.0041 * -0.0073 *** -0.0026 *** -0.218 *** -0.499 *** -0.425 *** -0.230 *** (-4.20) (-1.94) (-5.43) (-6.04) (-6.49) (-5.91) (-5.45) (-7.13) YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES N 228 600 450 770 228 600 450 770 R-square 0.998 0.999 0.999 0.998 0.683 0.611 0.687 0.482 : t,,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 (1)~(4) 2 (3) ; (5)~(8) 2 (6),, 1992 41.5%, 25.6%, ( ) 3% 97%, 5 (1) (5),, (2)~(4) (6)~(8) 0.25 0.5 0.75,,, log GDP, 3% -0.0029-0.0028[ 2 (3)] ;0.5-0.0024, 2
164 (3), (, ) 5 ( ) log GDP GDP (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 3% 0.25 0.50 0.75 3% 0.25 0.50 0.75-0.0029 *** -0.0025 *** -0.0024 *** -0.0030 *** -0.185 *** -0.272 *** -0.313 *** -0.292 *** (-6.28) (-6.08) (-5.18) (-5.29) (-7.61) (-10.14)(-12.13) (-9.59) YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES N 778 828 828 828 778 828 828 828 R-square 0.998 0.961 0.960 0.960 0.461 0.407 0.370 0.371 : t, (1) (5), (2)~(4) (6)~(8) Bofinger(1975) *p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 (1)~(4) 2 (3) ; (5)~(8) 2 (6),,,,, 1 ;, 2 ;,,, 3, 6, ( ), 5%, ( ),,, ;, 1. [N]..2001-04-19(9). 2. [N].,2001-05-31(9). 3. [N].,1999-11-27(8).
3 1 165,, : : 6 ( ) log GDP GDP (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) -0.0015 ** -0.0038 *** -0.0017-0.0032 *** -0.236 *** -0.261 *** -0.213 ** -0.266 *** (-2.81) (-7.48) (-1.95) (-6.33) (-5.35) (-7.83) (-3.01) (-10.27) YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES N 246 582 134 694 246 582 134 694 R-square 0.998 0.998 0.997 0.998 0.506 0.577 0.639 0.535 : t,,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 (1)~(4) 2 (3) ; (5)~(8) 2 (6),, 7 ( (1)~ (4) (5)~ (8), ),, 1%, 7 (, ), 7 ( ) log GDP GDP (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) -0.010 *** -0.002 *** -0.005 *** -0.003 *** -0.243 *** -0.249 *** -0.264 *** -0.265 *** (-3.19) (-3.68) (-5.54) (-5.83) (-9.02) (-9.66) (-9.81) (-10.18) YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES NO YES NO NO NO YES NO NO NO NO YES YES NO NO YES YES NO NO NO YES NO NO NO YES N 828 828 828 828 828 828 828 828 R-square 0.918 0.984 0.987 0.994 0.444 0.474 0.484 0.484 : t,,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 (1)~(4) 2 (3) ; (5)~(8) 2 (6) ;,
166 5 5.1,,,, 2,,,,,,,,,, ( ),, (,2014), (AzengandYogo,2013), 1988 2011, 1985 2012 :, ( );, ( ) 8, GDP( GDP ) 1,,, 1,,
3 1 167,, : :,, 1 8 log log log log log log (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 0.014 *** 0.016 *** 0.006 * 0.017 *** 0.017 *** 0.010 *** (8.04) (9.25) (1.85) (6.58) (5.65) (2.95) log GDP -0.216-0.359-0.888 (-1.04) (-1.23) (-1.61) GDP 0.003-0.001 0.005 (0.97) (-0.20) (1.35) YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES N 711 706 763 711 706 763 R-square 0.874 0.900 0.824 0.874 0.899 0.820 : t,,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 (1)~(3) (4)~(6) 2 (3) (6),, 9, GDP,,, ( GDP );, GDP, 9 log GDP (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) - -0.040*** (-3.31) -0.0026 *** -0.0023 *** -0.0025 *** (-4.60) (-4.54) (-5.18) -0.015 (-1.08) 1,,
168 log GDP (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) - -0.042 *** (-2.76) -0.022 (-1.28) -0.037 ** (-2.14) -0.029 * (-1.71) N 711 711 706 706 763 763 R-square 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.999 : t,,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 2 (3),,,, 8 9,,,, ( 11),,, 5.2,,,,,,,1992,, (1991 1992 ) (1996) (1999) (2001) (1999 2000 2001) (2005 2010 2012) (2008) (2009)
3 1 169,, : :,,, 1992, 4 (3) (7),, (1991,1992,1996,1999,2000,2001,2005,2008,2009,2010,2012) ( 10 (1)~(2) ), ( GDP) GDP, 1% ;,,, : 2000 2012,,, : = / 1 1, (, 9%); 1,, ;, 2 10,,,, 3, 4,,, :,, ( ) ;,,, (Santhirasegaram,2008),, ;,,, 1 2000 2012 2, 2000, 3 4 :, ;, ;
170 8 9, ; 10 log GDP GDP (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) >=1 <1-0.006*** (-5.29) -0.553 *** (-5.71) 1-2.160-1.542-26.617 (-1.40) (-1.54) (-0.58) -1.572-1.234-22.508 (-1.23) (-0.84) (-0.90) N 328 328 347 321 315 292 32 29 R-square 0.999 0.657 0.723 0.758 0.740 0.785 0.963 0.972 : t,,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 (1) (2) 2 (3) (6) ; (1)~(6), (7)~(8),, (3)~(8),, 11 (1)~(3), (1),, 0.0103, 1.3 (2 0.00067= 0.0134) (3), ( (2), 25.7%), (5% ); : (4)~(6), ( 1) (4), -0.0018,, 0.36 (2 0.0018=0.0036) (6), ( (5) ) 27.6%, ( 1% ), 1% 11, ( )
3 1 171,, : : 11 log GDP log GDP (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 0.0067 *** -0.0058 *** -0.0043 ** -0.0018 *** -0.00268 *** -0.00194 *** (2.91) (-2.81) (-2.41) (-7.20) (-7.57) (-5.04) -0.250 *** (-8.21) 0.410 *** (5.09) N 540 540 540 641 641 641 R-square 0.472 0.999 0.999 0.801 0.998 0.998 : t,,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 2 (3), (2) (5) 2 (3),,, 1995 2012, 1985 2006 ( 12), ( GDP );,, ;, 12 log GDP log GDP (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) -0.0085*** -0.00284 *** -0.00259 *** -0.0009 *** -0.00329 *** -0.00284 *** (-9.05) (-6.19) (-5.66) (-4.36) (-6.79) (-6.19) 0.029 ** (2.50) 0.537 ** (2.48) N 828 828 828 828 828 828 R-square 0.185 0.998 0.998 0.754 0.998 0.998 : t,,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01 2 (3), 5.3,,
172, 13 (1)~(4),, ( ),,, 1,, (Camposand Nugent, 2002),,, 1 13 (5)~(7),,, 3 13 ( :log GDP) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) -0.0042*** -0.0032 *** -0.0017 ** -0.0045 *** -0.0029 *** -0.0027 *** -0.0028 *** (-5.15) (-4.89) (-3.07) (-5.95) (-5.65) (-5.06) (-5.66) 1 2 3-0.0017 *** -0.0018 *** -0.0017 *** (-3.53) (-3.52) (-3.18) -0.0011 ** -0.0010 ** (-2.44) (-2.51) -0.0004 (-1.14) * * 0.0020 * (1.71) 0.0031 *** (2.97) N 306 223 299 828 746 746 746 R-square 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 0.998 : t,,*p<0.1,**p<0.05, *** p<0.01 2 (3), 1,,
3 1 173,, : : 6 :,,, 2000 2012 1,, 13 14 (1),, 1.095,, (2) (6),, ( GDP), ( (3) (7) ) 14 (1) (2) Log GDP (3) (4) (5) (6) GDP (7) (8) (9) -0.0005 # -0.0005 ** 0.0000-0.0010 ** -0.043 *** -0.040 ** -0.034 & -0.022 (-1.65) (-1.99) (0.06) (-2.31) (-3.10)(-2.52)(-1.54) (-0.74) 1.095 *** (3.99) NO NO YES YES YES NO YES YES YES N 354 354 354 208 146 354 354 208 146 R-square 0.663 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.779 0.798 0.780 0.865 : t,,*p<0.1,**p<0.05,***p<0.01,#p= 0.1,&p<0.15 (2) (6) ; (3)~(5) 2 (3) ; (7)~(9) 2 (6) ; (1),,,,, 2000 2012, 20, 20 1 2000 2002
174, ( ),,, 10%, 1,,,, 0, ( ), 14 (4) (8),, ( 15% ), ; (5) (9),,, :,,, ;,, ( ) 7, :,, 2,,,,, (1992 ) 1 2 : ( ) ; : 3, 284.,1993.
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178 HostileForcesWeFacedovertheYears: PoliticalStabilityandEconomicDevelopment AnEmpiricalStudyon DengXiaoping shypothesis ZhiqiangDong 1,2,WenlianLin 1,XiahaiWei 1 (1.Schoolof Economicsand Management,South China Normal University; 2.South China Centerfor MarketEconomy Research,South China Normal University) Abstract DengXiaopinghademphasizedtimeandagainthatpoliticalstabilityis vitaltotheeconomicdevelopmentofchina.therehasbeennoformalresearchto evaluatetheefectofpoliticalstabilityontheeconomicdevelopmentofchina.this paperadoptedthefrequencyof bourgeoisliberalization and hostileforces in People s Daily byyearasameasureofpoliticalinstability,andpercapitagdpand GDPgrowthrateofeachprovinceasameasureofeconomicdevelopment.Wedetermined thatpoliticalinstability hassignificantnegativeimpactoneconomicdevelopment, whicharealsorobustwhenweconsiderdiferenttimeperiods,abnormalsamplesand diferentmodelseting.wefurtherprovedthatthefrequencyof bourgeoisliberalization and hostileforces couldbeagoodproxyvariableforpoliticalinstabilityandpolitical instabilityafectsoureconomicdevelopmentinatleastthreeways:destroyingthe socialwealthdirectlybyworseningsocialorder,changingthestructureofeconomic resourcealocationbyreducingtheproductiveexpenditureorincreasingthenon- productiveexpenditure,andinhibitingthedomesticinvestmentandfdi. JELClasification O10,P16