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1 高科技产业中国对美投资的下一波浪潮作者 THILO HANEMANN 和 DANIEL H. ROSEN 亚洲协会关于中国对美投资的报告敞开美国大门让中国海外直接投资的利益最大化 2011 年 4 月中国对加利福尼亚州的直接投资 2012 年 10 月) 让亚洲和美国为共同的未来做好准备亚洲协会是全球领先的泛亚组织致力于加强亚洲和美国人民领导人和机构之间的关系并促进相互了解我们致力于增进了解和加强对话鼓励创造性的表达并激发跨政治商业教育艺术和文化领域的新想法亚洲协会成立于 1956 年是无党派的非营利机构在香港休斯顿洛杉矶马尼拉孟买纽约旧金山首尔上海悉尼和华盛顿特区设有分支机构有关详细信息请访问 AsiaSociety.org/ChinaHiTechInvestment 特别报告

2 THILO HANEMANN DANIEL H. ROSEN AsiaSociety.org/ChinaHiTechInvestment

3 The Asia Society. Asia Society Northern California 500 Washington Street, Suite 350 San Francisco, CA

4 3 Thilo Hanemann (Rhodium Group) Hanemann An American Open Door? [ ] 2011 [ ] 2012 (China Investment Monitor) Daniel H. Rosen Rosen 1993 (Peterson Institute for International Economics) Rosen ( (

5 4 Jack Wadsworth

6 I II III IV V

7 6 (Asia Society) 2011 Daniel H. Rosen Thilo Hanemann (Edmund G. Brown, Jr.) (Northern California Center)

8 7 Orville Schell Arthur Ross Jack Wadsworth Morgan Stanley N. Bruce Pickering

9 8 (Rhodium Group) (Asia Society) (Center on U.S. China Relations) Orville Schell Josette Sheeran Jack Wadsworth (Asia Society Northern California, ASNC) Bruce Pickering Robert W. Hsu Robert Bullock Maria Scarzella-Thorpe Wendy Soone-Broder Deloitte Silicon Valley Bank Wells Fargo Jack Wadsworth Blank Rome LLP East West Bank (Peterson Institute for International Economics) Ted Moran Monty Graham ( ) Thilo Hanemann Daniel H. Rosen

10 Motorola Mobility IBM x86 Fisker IBM

11 Facebook WhatsApp IBM x86 Google

12 11 25,000 (Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, CFIUS)

13 (IPR) 5. 6.

15 % Mira Wilkins % % 15% % Mira Wilkins Wilkins (National Science Foundation) c4s4.htm#s1

16 (%) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Rosen Bao (2013) "Remarks for U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman on the United States, the European Union, and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership" Michael Froman

17 16

18 17 I , (External Wealth of Nations) Hanemann

19 18 (CIM) IBM (PC) ,000 14,000 12,000 10, , , , , Hanemann Gao (2014) 9 10

20 19 SIC (OECD) 12 1 IT IT

21 * ,000 5,000 4, ,000 2, , * IBM PC IBM PC Wright Medical OrthoRecon 23 IBM 29 Google Motorola Mobility 3.38 Protein Laboratories 1.49 Fisker

22 Twitter 2008 Microsoft Yahoo! Facebook WhatsApp 15 60% 70% % % 71% 11 66% 21% 10%

23 (%) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% ,500 2,000 1, ,

24 23 1: 500,000 10% American International Group Apple News Corp % IT HealthCrowd Trustlook.com 17 Zimmer Holdings 14 General Electric Walmart UPS Dell 2012 Duke Energy Dinny McMahon "CIC Offers Glimpse Into U.S. Holding" Arash Massoudi Paul J. Davies "Alibaba Extends Further into US Ecommerce" Chao Deng China s ZPark Venture Fund Invests in Silicon Valley Startups e94oakujc&ReturnUrl=http%3a%2f%2fpevc.dowjones.com%2fArticle%3fan%3dDJFVW e94oakujc Kandy Wong "Chinese Banks Step Up Lending in the US"

25 IT IT IT IT ,997 1,470 1, ,079 IT 2005 IBM PC Complete Geno mics MicroPort Datascope AppTec ZONARE Medical Systems MiaSolé Ascent Solar Technology Global Solar Energy Cirrus Industries Teledyne Technologies Enstrom Helicopter Epic Air Glasair Aviation

26 ,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, IT IT IT Epic Games Riot Games Auctiva Echo Lane Vendio

27 IT Volvo Manganese Bronze Peugeot IT IBM PC IT (80%) Nexteer Automotive Delphi Corporation (77%) Goss International

28 高科技产业中国对美投资的下一波浪潮亚洲协会 27 图年中国对美国高科技产业的外商直接投资的地区分布年累计交易金额和交易数量交易金额百万美元 X = 交易数量华盛顿州 16 新罕布什尔州 1 罗得岛州 2 明尼苏达州 6 俄勒冈州 3 马萨诸塞州威斯康星州 1 内布拉斯加州内华达州加利福尼亚州亚利桑那州 2 堪萨斯州密苏里州肯塔基州田纳西州 3 俄克拉何马州弗吉尼亚州北卡罗来纳州康涅狄格州 1 新泽西州 19 马里兰州 13 哥伦比亚特区 1 南卡罗来纳州 9 佐治亚州密西西比州亚拉巴马州得克萨斯州 42 宾夕法尼亚州印第安纳州俄亥俄州伊利诺伊州 7 21 科罗拉多州 148 纽约州 27 密歇根州 50 1 路易斯安那州佛罗里达州 7 夏威夷州 2 资料来源荣鼎集团这些数字会不断更新所以可能会有所调整关于资料来源和方法的详细说明请查阅地不过中国企业也开始通过并购活动和绿地投资项目来投资高科技产业其中一些投资以石油相关的制造业和服务业公司为对象例如工程公司 Friede Goldman 或 ION Geophysical 该州也有华为中兴和东软等公司设立的办事处和研发设施并吸引了医疗保健业 (MD Anderson Cancer Center) 和软件业 (Catapult Systems) 的收购

29 28 IBM Great Point Energy A123 Systems Lightera Corporation Luminus Devices Cirrus Aircraft Continental Motors IT Mindray Medical USA Corp 2: % % 10% 40% IT IT

30 29 B B

31 30 B IT IT ZONARE Medical Systems Complete Genomics

32 % 72% (50%) 80% % 9 IT ,500 2,000 1, , IBM % %

33 (%) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 11 IT

34 X =

35 34 II John H. Dunning Dunning Rosen Hanemann (2009) "US Lawmakers Concerned by Huawei Deal" Rosen Hanemann A-Chinese/an/ PDF-ENG publication/130215_competitiveness_huawei_casestudy_web.pdf

36 35 3 LED Luminus Devices 10% Novasentis Dunning (1993) %

37 % AES Intergen 10% ShopRunner % %

38 (83%) (76%) 1, Nexteer 25 IT

39 ,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, , ,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,

41 IBM IT IBM PC - IT 2001 Universal Automotive Industries 2003 Rockford Powertrain 2005 IBM PC Com 2012 MiaSolé 2011 Cirrus ZONARE 2008 AppTec 2010 Vendio Auctiva Riot Games 2012

42 ,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, , ,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,

44 % 78% Nexteer Cirrus Aviation (IPR) 26 (2008c) Wang (2012) Addressing China s Looming Talent Shortage

47 46 III. 27 / (1) (2) (3) 27 (2002) 28 Yannaca-Small (2007) Gerber (2010) 29 Rosen Hanemann (2011) Hanemann Rosen (2012)

48 47 Apple PC B2B 30 IBM PC IBM IBM PC IBM IT PC

49 Aghion (2006) 31 Chamberlin (1933) Robinson (1933) Fox Pitofsky (1997) 32 Motta (2004) 33 Graham Richardson (1997) Gerber (2010) tratop_e/scm_e/cv_initiationsbyexpcty.pdf 35 Rosen Hanemann

50 Goodrich (2013) MiaSolé Global Solar Energy Inc. Clean Jersey Solar LDK Solar Power, Inc David Ricardo (1817) 39 Wilkins (2012)

51 (%) 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% % ,410 IT

52 ,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, International Accounts

53 * 2007 ** 42 (2010)

54 53 AMSC , ,000 19, "Sinovel Corporation and Three Individuals Charged in Wisconsin with Theft of AMSC Trade Secrets" AMSC justice.gov/opa/pr/2013/june/13-crm-730.html 44 James McGregor "China s Drive for Indigenous Innovation : A Web of Industrial Policies" reports/100728chinareport_0.pdf Hanemann 47 Hanemann Lysenko (2012)

55 , , A123 Nexteer Cirrus Mooney 4

56 , Nexteer Automotive (2010) 3, Kennametal (2009) Kennametal Industries Neapco Holdings (2006) 2006 Neapco Neapco 2,000 IBM PC (2005) 2005 IBM PC 2, EMC Stoneware Inc. 2, Goss International 49

57 China India Russia Brazil Mexico Pollins (2003)

58 (CFIUS) Yannaca-Small (2007) 52 Graham Marchick (2006) Moran (2009) 53 "Composition of CFIUS" Graham Marchick (2006) 4 56 Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People s Republic of China Kan (2011)

59 Mamco Manufacturing Inc Bain Capital 3Com Leaf Hawker Beechcraft (%) 25 20% 25% 20 20% % 9% 10 4% 6% 6% 10% 5 0 0% % % 0% Harriet King "China Ends Silence on Deal U.S. Rescinded" html Steven R. Weisman "Sale of 3Com to Huawei Is Derailed by U.S. Security Concerns" 3Com worldbusiness/21iht-3com html?pagewanted=all&_r= Huawei Backs Away from 3Leaf Acquisition 3Leaf Mike Spector Hawker Sales Talks Collapse over Review Worries Hawker

60 59 Nexteer Automotive Goss International 62 Cirrus Industries Enstrom Helicopter IBM PC A Nick Bunkley "G.M. Sells Parts Maker to a Chinese Company"G.M Matt Whipp PrintWeek "Shanghai Electric to Take 100% Stake in Goss International," Goss International 100% "China to Buy U.S. Plane Maker" Ernie Stephens Rotor & Wing "New Chinese Ownership Brings Great Change to Enstrom" Enstrom IBM "Lenovo to Acquire IBM Personal Computing Division" IBM PC Michael Bathon "Wanxiang Wins U.S. Approval to Buy Battery Maker A123" A

61 60 IV (1) (2) (3)

62 61 10 Facebook (ICT) Leaf IT Moran (2013)

63 A Bankruptcy Beat "Talking SMAC" SMAC Export Controls and the U.S. Defense Industrial Base GetTRDoc?AD=ADA Trade-Regulation/Export-Controls.aspx 71 High-Tech Trade Promotion and Export Controls Ian F. Fergusson Paul K. Kerr The U.S. Export Control System and the President s Reform Initiative

64 "Locke Says Sprint s Chief Was Called About Huawei Bid Concerns" Sprint (2010)

65 Susan Rice Rosen Hanemann (2011) Sinovel Corporation and Three Individuals Charged in Wisconsin with Theft of AMSC Trade Secrets AMSC justice.gov/opa/pr/2013/june/13-crm-730.html ustr.gov/tpp Susan E. Rice

66 Baucus, Hatch, Camp Unveil Bill to Bring Home Job-Creating Trade Agreements Baucus Hatch Camp Max Baucus 83 (2007) (2012) (2005) (2011) Hufbauer Vieiro (2013) (2012)

67 66 V

68 (IPR)

70 69 Effects of Entry on Incumbent Innovation and Productivity. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper no , February. Accessed March 3, papers/w States and Japan. Center for Strategic and International Studies, February. Accessed February 16, Companies: Preliminary Results from the 2009 Benchmark Survey. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, November. Accessed February 16, Norms in Old Institutions. Report prepared for the U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission, January 16. Accessed February 16, Chamberlin, Edward Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Congress. Accessed February 16, Operations: How Much Is Enough? 9(2): Accessed February 16, Towards a Dynamic or Developmental Approach. 117(1): Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.

71 70 Comparison of Emerging-Market TNCs Today and Developed-Country TNCs Thirty Years Ago. In edited by Karl P. Sauvant, Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar. Dunning, John H., and Sarianna M. Lundan nd ed. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar. European-American Business Council, and Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. March 31. Accessed February 16, edited by Karl P. Sauvant, Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar., edited by Edward M. Graham and J. David Richardson, Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics. 32(1): Gerber, David J New York: Oxford University Press. Considerations. Accessed February 16, us%20ready%20for%20fdi%20from%20china%20economic%20considerations.pdf. Goodrich, Alan C., Douglas M. Powell, Ted L. James, Michael Woodhouse, and Tonio Bionassisi. 6: Graham, Edward M., and Paul R. Krugman rd ed. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

72 71 Graham, Edward M., and David M. Marchick Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics, Graham, Edward M., and J. David Richardson Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics. Opportunities for Transatlantic Cooperation. Stockholm China Forum, German Marshall Fund of the United States, June. Accessed February 16, update., February 23. update b. Testimony before the U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission. Chinese Outward FDI. Working paper, Rhodium Group. Rhodium Group, January 7. Accessed February 17, the United States. Rhodium Group, September 27. Accessed February 17, articles/the-employment-impacts-of-chinese-investment-in-the-united-states. Policy Implications. Rhodium Group, June. Accessed February 17,

73 72 a Competitive Economy. Peterson Institute for International Economics, Policy Brief no. 13-9, April. Accessed February 17, cfm?researchid=2364. subsidies.pdf. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. Accessed February 17, bopman.pdf Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. Accessed February 17, bop/2007/pdf/bpm6.pdf. Congressional Research Service, January 2. Accessed February 17, crs/natsec/rl33388.pdf. Issues. Congressional Research Service, February 3. Accessed February 17, org/sgp/crs/nuke/rl31555.pdf. and the Rise of China and India. Center for the Advanced Study of India, Working Paper Special Report no. 15, September. Accessed February 17, element.aspx?id= f-23ae-4ce8-820b-b6632eee522f#.uwiuopldwsi. II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, International Monetary Fund, Working Paper no. 06/06, March 1. Accessed February 17, org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=

74 73 Lardy, Nicholas R Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics. Michigan Press. McFarlan, F. Warren, Regina Abrami, William C. Kirby, Tracy Yuen Manty, and Keith Chi-ho Teaching Note for HBS Case no , February 26. Accessed February 17, hbs.edu/faculty/pages/item.aspx?num= ZOWg60CFRDHKgodAllaTA. Foreign Direct Investment Statistical Procedure. Accessed February 17, mofcom.gov.cn/article/b/bf/201212/ shtml Statistics Press. the Evidence and Policy Implications. Paper presented at the OECD Conference on the Role of International Investment in Development, Corporate Responsibilities and the OECD Guidelines for Multimational Enterprises, Paris, September Accessed February 17, oecd.org/investment/mne/ pdf Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics. Suppliers. Peterson Institute for International Economics, Policy Brief no 13-11, May. Accessed February 17,

75 74 Moran, Theodore H., and Lindsay Oldenski Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics. Motta, Massimo New York: Cambridge University Press. Development 10th Five Year Plan. Accessed February 17, shizheng/16/ / html. 2014, Paris: OECD. Edition. Accessed February 17, of Practices. Accessed February 17, Security Concerns: A Survey of Practices. Accessed February 17, inv/investment-policy/ pdf. Operations. Accessed February 17, htm Paris: OECD. Accessed February 17,

76 75 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and United Nations. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. Accessed February 17, edited by Karl P. Sauvant, Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar., January/February, Ricardo, David London: John Murray. Robinson, Joan London: Macmillan. Rosen, Daniel H Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics. US Businesses in China. Rhodium Group, July 18. Accessed February 17, notes/eight-guardian-warriors-prism-and-its-implications-for-us-businesses-in-china-2. Economics, Policy Brief no Accessed February 17, pb/pb09-14.pdf. Investment. Asia Society, Center on U.S. China Relations, May. Accessed February 17, Forthcoming.. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

77 76 Sauvant, Karl P., ed Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, (1): Payment. Accessed February 17, Steinfeld, Edward S New York: Oxford University Press., Capacity Building in the Area of FDI: Data Compilation and Policy Formulation in Developing Compilation and Policy Formulation in Developing Countries. Accessed February 17, Infringement, Indigenous Innovation Policies, and Frameworks for Measuring the Effects on the U.S. Economy. Accessed February 17, Accessed February 17,

78 77 Wilkins, Mira Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. International Investment Perspectives: Freedom of Investment in a Changing World, Paris: OCED. Accessed February 17,

79 % 10% 86 (IMF) 87 10% 88 (BOP) (UNCTAD) (OECD) (Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, 2009) (1993) 88 Investment, OECD 2008a) 89 Patterson (2004)

80 79 90 roundtripping trans-shipping (2005a) 91 (2005b) 92 (1993) (General Data Dissemination System, GDDS) aspx?ctycode=chn&catcode=bps China Outward Foreign Direct Investment Statistical Bulletin

81 A-1 A China Outward Foreign Direct Investment Statistical Procedure

82 % A % 17% (Coordinated Direct Investment Survey, CDIS) ,100 A-3 4,250 A (CDIS) Heritage Foundation (China Investment Tracker) 1

83 82 A (%) A

84 83 A (%) (RHG) (RHG China Investment Monitor, CIM) %

85 84 500,000 10% 10% 80% (SIC) bopman/bopman.pdf

86 85 99 A-1 ISIC (Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS) NAICS Communauté Européene) A-2 Stephen Hymer Charles Kindleberger John H. Dunning Hanemann Lysenko (2012) 100 Moran Oldenski (2013, 19ff) 101 Haier: Taking a Chinese Company Global Lenovo: Building a Global Brand Building-A-Global/an/ PDF-ENG

87 86 A-1 (ISIC) (ISIC) (NAICS) 400 / / / IHS Global Insight IHS Global Insight IHS Global Insight (USPTO) (OECD) IHS Global Insight IHS Global Insight IHS Global Insight

88 John H. Dunning Dunning (1993) 20 Dunning - A Resources, oil and gas, timber, metals, rare earths, polysilicon, basic materials, upstream, extractive, supplier. ( ) 102

89 88 A-2 IT IT A-3 10% Dunning (1993)

90 89 Sales, exports, clients, customers, supplier, localization, after sale customer service, market, customer, marketing. ( ) IBM PC Enstrom Helicopter Corporation ZONARE Medical Systems Capacity, technology, knowledge, leaders, experts, distribution channels, brands, patents, IPR. ( ) )

91 90 10% AES Shoprunner initial public offering. ( )

92 高科技产业中国对美投资的下一波浪潮作者 THILO HANEMANN 和 DANIEL H. ROSEN 亚洲协会关于中国对美投资的报告敞开美国大门让中国海外直接投资的利益最大化 2011 年 4 月中国对加利福尼亚州的直接投资 2012 年 10 月) 让亚洲和美国为共同的未来做好准备亚洲协会是全球领先的泛亚组织致力于加强亚洲和美国人民领导人和机构之间的关系并促进相互了解我们致力于增进了解和加强对话鼓励创造性的表达并激发跨政治商业教育艺术和文化领域的新想法亚洲协会成立于 1956 年是无党派的非营利机构在香港休斯顿洛杉矶马尼拉孟买纽约旧金山首尔上海悉尼和华盛顿特区设有分支机构有关详细信息请访问 AsiaSociety.org/ChinaHiTechInvestment 特别报告

THILO HANEMANN DANIEL H. ROSEN 2014 4 AsiaSociety.org/ChinaHiTechInvestment

THILO HANEMANN DANIEL H. ROSEN THILO HANEMANN DANIEL H. ROSEN 2014 4 AsiaSociety.org/ChinaHiTechInvestment 2014 The Asia Society. Asia Society Northern California 500 Washington Street, Suite 350 San Francisco,