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29 Shanghai Futures Forum member of SRI TRANG GROUP

1 Rubber Demand & Supply Forecast of Rubber Price Trend Shanghai Futures Forum member of SRI TRANG GROUP SRITRANG AGRO-INDUSTRY PLC. Forward Looking and Environmental Friendly Organization

2 Six Factors The rubber price has been down since 2013 for six factors: Supply Surplus National Purchase Fund Oriented Thai s Dilemma SHFE Contract Standard International Trade Finance

3 Demand & Supply 1 Worldwide Supply Surplus 2 Tire Industry Going Down

4 1.1 Supply Surplus 单位 : 千吨 Source:IRSG Before 2010, the demand and supply balance is tight. After 2011, the supply became more. We expect the growth rate of supply is 4%, the growth rate of demand is between 3-4%. Year 2012 change 2013 change 2014E change Demand % % % Supply % % %

5 1.2 Production in Apr. Decreases Source:ANRPC Quarter 1, the supply and demand are stable, the growth rate is about 5.18%. Production in Apr. is 749,300 tons, decreasing by 3.2% YoY World s Rubber Production ROW Cambodia Philippines Myanmar Country 2013 Delta YoY Jan- Apr Delta YoY Thailand % % Indonesia % % Malaysia % % Sri Lanka India China Malaysia Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Vietnam % % India % % China % % Sri Lanka % % Philippine % % Cambodia % % Total % %

1.3 Thai: Production in Apr is Lower than expection

6 1.3 Thai: Production in Apr is Lower than expection Source:ANRPC Thai s monthly production Production in Jan-Apr decreases by 1.4% YoY. Thai begins to produce, but lack of rain. The raw material s situation is tight. The planting area in begins to increase. In , the production will still expand. In 2014, the production will be 4300 thousand tons.

7 1.4 Thai s Export Remains High In 2013, China import s 2207 thousand tons from Thailand, increasing by 416 thousand tons or 23%. In Jan-Mar 2014, China imports 704 thousand tons from Thailand, increasing by 119 thousand tons or 20.4%. Source: 中国海关单位 : 万吨

8 1.5 Indonesia: Production Remains Stable Source:ANRPC Production in Jan-Apr increased by 3.8% YoY.

9 1.6 Indonesia Export to China Increase Little In 2013, China imports 582 thousand tons of rubber from Indonesia, increasing by 52 thousand tons. In Jan-Mar, China imports 159 thousand tons of rubber from Indonesia, increasing by 35 thousand tons. Source: 中国海关单位 : 万吨

10 1.7 Malaysia: Production Remains Stable Source:ANRPC Production in Jan-Apr increases by 2.1%.

11 1.8 SMR Loses Strength In 2013, China imports 831 thousand tons of rubber from Malaysia, increasing by 47 thousand tons. In 2013, Malaysia exports 1380 thousand tons; importing material 1005 thousand tons from countries around. In Jan-Mar 2014, China imports 217 thousand tons from Malaysia, increasing by 24 thousand tons. Source: 中国海关单位 : 万吨

12 1.9 Vietnam: Production in Q1 Remains Stable Source:ANRPC Production in Jan- Apr decreases by 4%.

13 1.10 Export from Vietnam to China Decreases In 2013, China imports about 200 thousand tons of rubber from Vietnam, decreasing by 20% YoY. In Jan-Mar, 2014, China imports about 53 thousand tons of rubber from Vietnam, increasing by 10.3% YoY. Source: 中国海关单位 : 万吨

14 1.11 India: Supply Remains Stable Source:ANRPC Production in Jan-Apr decreases by 0.6%.

1.12 India: Supply Deficit Grows Source:ANRPC Sale of Auto increases by 5.1% to 242 thousand tons in Q1, 2014. International price goes down, the import from India is 58.

15 1.12 India: Supply Deficit Grows Source:ANRPC Sale of Auto increases by 5.1% to 242 thousand tons in Q1, International price goes down, the import from India is 58.7 thousand tons, increasing 33.7%. India highers its import tariff by 50%, supposed to protect national rubber planters benefit. Supply and Demand Balance of India in 2014 Production: 950 thousand tons Imports: 300 thousand tons\ Export 20 thousand tons Consumption: 990 thousand tons

16 Conclusion: Supply in Apr lower than expectation Supply in Q1 remains stable, increasing by 5.1%. Recently the new season begins, the supply in April is lower than expectation. The supply is in surplus. In 2014, we expect the production growth rate will be 4%, almost 500 thousand tons of fresh rubber will be in the market. The cost factor fades. Although the price is going down, farmers still remain the production efficiency. The increasing production mainly goes to China.

17 1.13 The Production Increases Source:ANRPC Under the stable situation of price and season, the supply will remain 4% growth rate before World s Rubber Supply Trend Production in Other Countries Increases LAM Africa CAMAL

18 2.1 Consumption Rates Going down World s consumption is 2.7% in 2013, increasing by 300 thousand tons. IRSG predicts the growth rate of consumption is 5.2% in Source:IRSG World s Rubber Consumption 年份中国欧洲美洲印度日本泰国印尼马来西亚韩国合计 ROW Brazil S. Korea Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Japan USA India EU-27 China E 增速 7.5% 2.5% -3.2% -3% 0.3% 3.0% 7.4% -0.7% 0.0% 2.7% 2014E 增速 5.1% 5.1% 4.6% 3.3% 1.5% 3.3% 5.2% 4.9% 0.0% 5.3%

19 2.2 Car Market Remains Stable in Jan.-Apr. US s car market is stable. The sales in Jan.-Apr. increased by 3.1%. Europe s car market is good. Passenger auto market hits the new high. Japan s car market goes down because of the consumption tax. China s passenger car sale increased by 10.5% in Jan-Apr.

20 08' ' ' ' ' ' '01 08' ' ' ' ' ' ' Tire Production Remains Stable 中国国内市场商用车轮胎需求分析商用车同比增长率固定增产投资同比增长率国内全钢轮胎同比增长率 ( 领先指标 ) 400% 50% 250% 中国国内市场乘用车轮胎需求分析乘用车同比增长率货币供应量同比增长率国内半钢轮胎同比增长率 ( 领先指标 ) 35% 350% 300% 250% 40% 200% 150% 30% 25% 200% 150% 100% 50% 30% 20% 100% 50% 0% 20% 15% 10% 0% -50% -100% 10% 0% -50% -100% 5% 0% In Q1, 2014, the production of China s steel tire is 23.5million, increased by 10% with capacity of 70%. In Q1, 2014, the production of China s half-steel tire is 94.2 million, increased by 9% with capacity of 78%.

21 2.4 Capacity Goes Down Since 2014, the monthly capacity of steel tire has increased by 7.5% to 11.5 million with capacity of 75%. Since 2014, the monthly capacity of half-steel tire has increased by 8.2% to 42.5 million with capacity of 80%.

22 2.5 Production of Steel Tire We expect that the production of Steel Tire will be affected by the export market. The production in Q1 will be 23.5 million, increasing by 10%.

23 2.6 Production of Half-Steel Tire In 2014, half-steel tire production remains a good growth rate. The production in Q1 is about 94.2 million, increasing by 9%.

24 2.7 Tire Export The export of half-steel tire in Jan-Apr increased by 11.1% YoY. The export of steel tire in Jan-Apr increased by 23.8% YoY.

25 2.8 Dealers stock in May In May, the stock of truck tire dealer remains to 38.8 days, increasing by 4.86% MoM, decreasing by 1.8 days YoY. In May, the stock of car tire dealer remains to 69.8 days, increasing by 7.7% MoM, increasing by 13.9% YoY.

26 2.9 Tire Industry Faces Pressure The capacity became to be real productivity since the end of last year. Tires do not sold well. In May, tire plants begin to cut down price. Some of them cut down the price by 8%.

27 2.10 Tire Producing Capacity Grows Fast Now, tire consumption occupies 80% of rubber consumption. In 2013, there are 128 radial tire plants. In 2014, it grows to 140. Source: 中国石油化学工业协会 Heilongjiang Jilin Sinkiang Inner Mongolia Liaoning Beijing Tianjin Hebeii Ningxia Shanxi Shandong Tibet Qinghai Gansu Shaanxi Henan Hubei Anhui Jiangsu Shanghai Sichuan Chongqing Zhejiang Guizhou Hunan Jiangxi Fujian North China (21) Int l Group (37) Yunnan Guangxi Guangdong Taiwan Shandong (65) SD Group (57) Hongkong Great SHA (27) South Group (35) South China (17) Central-West China (10) North Group (11) Hainan

28 2.11 Trends of Tire Industry Before 2018, the producing capacity remains 10% growth rate. Steel tire industry is controlled by national policy; the growth rate drops down. Source: 中国石油化学工业协会

29 2.12 Forecast of China s Tire Market in 2014 In 2014, we expect the steel tire s growth rate to be 4-5%. In 2014, we expect the steel tire s growth rate to be 8-10%. 全钢胎市场预测半钢胎市场预测

30 Conclusion Tire Industry and Rubber Demand Drop In the past ten years, tire industry grows very fast. In 2014, we expect the world s natural rubber demand growth rate will between 3-4%; China s demand growth rate will between 4-5%. In 2014, the producing capacity becomes to the real production. Tire plants cut down price. Tire industry goes down.

31 2.13 Rubber Demand Slows Down We expect the growth rate of demand will be 3-4%. World s Natural Rubber Demand Trend

32 Six Factors Oversupply International trading finance 收储干扰 SHFE contract standards National Purchase Thai s dilemma Fund oriented

33 1 Supply Surplus The growth rate of demand in Q1 will be 3-4%. Source:ANRPC

34 2 Stocks Goes Down The Stocks are going down since the Spring Festival.

3 Trading Finance Drops For the RMB depreciates, the trading finance drops. One of the reasons of stocks going down. 品种 2014.

35 3 Trading Finance Drops For the RMB depreciates, the trading finance drops. One of the reasons of stocks going down. 品种 change change% 乳胶 % 烟片 % 标胶 % 复合胶 % 其他 % TTL %

36 4 Spreads remain

37 5 Thai s Tight Political Situation Thai s tight political situation cased the government not have enough time to notice rubber price.

6 Interference of National Purchase Source:ANRPC 项目 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 年初国产 64.3 68.7 72.7 79.5 85.6 进口 273.4 286.4 295.6 351.0 401.4 期末期货库存 14.4 6.9 3.3 9.8 25 保税区天胶 & 复合胶库存 10 12 21.8 25.3 35 显性库存国储当年收储量 11 10.

38 6 Interference of National Purchase Source:ANRPC 项目年初国产进口期末期货库存保税区天胶 & 复合胶库存显性库存国储当年收储量本年度增减小计表观消费量合计 Information that National Storage slows down its speed of purchasing rubber through contract May.

39 7 Short Position in Multiple Markets Source:ANRPC SH INDEX & SHFE Rubber Crude Oil & SHFE Rubber 沪胶指数沪胶指数 Gold & SHFE Rubber Cooper & SHFE Rubber 沪胶指数沪胶指数

40 No Solutions Cased be the six factors, rubber price goes down. Oversupply National purchase Fund oriented Thai s dilemma SHFE contract standards International trading finance

41 Macro Leads Rubber in Weak Session According to the weak macro economy, the rubber price is in a weak session. Natural Rubber futures are short position. From the perspective or rubber market: price still may goes down when the supply puts pressure. In Q2, the new supply season begins. Dry weather and decreasing stock may not let the price go down so quickly. In Q3, price may still goes down. In Q4, price may go up because the new economy cycle.

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