( 解垩,2010), ( Feldman,1994; Topa 等,2011; 梁玉成,2007) Socioeconomic Status SES ( 李春玲,2005) ( 马玉霞,2011; Ayyagari 等,2011) 2007 Feldman 1994 Topa 2011 ( 梁玉成

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1 INSURANCE STUDIES No ,2 钱锡红 1,2 申曙光随着我国老龄化问题的逐渐显现, 关于退休年龄的研究近年越来越受重视, 但纵观以往的研究, 大多是从宏观角度进行探讨, 或者是利用已退休者的退休年龄进行事后分析, 缺乏从微观角度去探讨影响个体期望退休年龄的实证研究本研究通过理论分析并在南方五省收集份有效问卷进行实证研究, 结果表明 : 职位级别和期望退休年龄为正相关关系, 即随着职位级别的提高, 员工也期望相应延长退休年龄 ; 人力资本和期望退休年龄之间不是简单的正相关关系, 而是呈 U 型的曲线关系 ; 经济收入和期望退休年龄之间也不是简单的正相关关系, 而是呈倒 U 型关系本研究结果对我国公共管理部门和企业界有重要指导意义退休年龄 ; 社会经济地位 ; 人力资本 ; 经济收入 ; 职位级别 C812 A ( 金刚,2010) 60 33% ( 王增文,2010; 关博,2011) ( 钱锡红和申曙光,2012) Honig 1996 Uccello 1998 Honig 1998 ( 贺寨平,2002; 马玉霞,2011) NO 10zd&038 NO 11YJCZH134 ( 育苗工程 ) NO wym

2 ( 解垩,2010), ( Feldman,1994; Topa 等,2011; 梁玉成,2007) Socioeconomic Status SES ( 李春玲,2005) ( 马玉霞,2011; Ayyagari 等,2011) 2007 Feldman 1994 Topa 2011 ( 梁玉成,2007; Feldman,1994; Topa 等,2011), U U ( 郑春荣和刘慧倩,2011) ( Honig,1998; Topa 等, 2009) ( 林忠晶和龚六堂,2007; 梁玉成,2007) Lleras-Muney 2005 ( Uccello,1998; 孙佳佳和吴铮,2009) U

3 U 1 U ( Pang 等, 2010; 孙佳佳和吴铮,2009) ; Feldman U ( 以下简称南方五省 )

4 ~ ~ U U ~ ~ ~ ( 2010 年 ) 5 ( 单位 : 万元 ) 1. Uccello 1998 Honig 1998 ( 解垩,2010) 2. ( 解垩,2010; Topa 等,2011) Topa 2009 Meta 3. ( 孙佳佳和吴铮,2009) Feldman

5 2 3 D-W ~ VIF VIF VIF 10 VIF VIF 3 ( 刘军,2008) VIF VIF D-W *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** ( 万 ) *** *** * *** *** *** * P < ** P < *** P < β = p < β = p < β = p < 0. 2 ΔR 2 = p < β = p < ( 模型 F 值的改变量在水平上显著 ) β = p < U 4 5 ΔR 2 = p < β = p < ( 模型 F 值的改变量在水平上显著 )

6 β = p < U 7 8 ΔR 2 = p < β = p < ( 模型 F 值的改变量在水平上仍不显著 ) *** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ** *** R R ΔF *** *** *** *** *** ** *** *** ΔF D-W t * P < ** P < *** P < a 1 b 1 c 1 a U 1 b 1 c 107

7 U 1 4 ( 模型 2 模型 5 模型 8) U ( 由模型 6 可知, 二次方项显著 ) U ( 由模型 3 可知, 二次方项显著 ) U U U ( 李保华,2009) ( 金刚,2010) ( 卢锐等,2008) 108

8 1 2 3 Common Method Bias 1 Topa [1] Ayyagari,P.,Grossman,D.,Sloan,F. Education and Health: Evidence on Adults with Diabetes[J]. International Journal of Health Care Finance and Economics,2011,11( 1) : [2] Feldman,C. D. The Decision to Retire Early: A Review and Conceptualization[J]. Academy of Management Review,1994,( 2) : [3] Honig M. Retirement Expectations: Differences by Race,Ethnicity and Gender[J]. Gerontologist,1996,36 ( 3) : [4] Honig,M. Married Women's Retirement Expectations: Do Pensions and Social Security Matter? [J]. American Economic Review,1998,88( 2) : [5] Lleras-Muney,A. The Relationship Between Education and Adult Health in the United States [J]. Review of Economic Studies,2005,72( 2) : [6] Pang,G.,Warshawsky,M.,Weitzer,B. The Retirement Decision: Current Influences on the Timing of Retirement among Older Workers. In: Micocci,M.,Gregoriou,G. N.,Giovanni,B. M. ( ed. ). Pension Fund Risk Management: Financial and Actuarial Modeling[C]. Chapman and Hall / CRC Press,2010. [7] Topa,G.,Moriano,A. J.,Depolo,M.,et al. Antecedents and Consequences of Retirement Planning and Decision-making: A Meta-analysis and Model[J]. Journal of Vocational Behavior,2009,75( 1) : [8] Topa,G.,Moriano,A. J.,Depolo,M.,et al. Retirement and Wealth Relationships: Meta-analysis and SEM [J]. Research on Aging,2011,33( 7) : [9] Uccello,C. E. Factors Influencing Retirement: Their Implications for Raising Retirement Age[R]. Washington D. C. : American Association of Retired Persons,1998. [10] 关博. 现金余额型职业养老金计划及其对我国的启示 [J]. 保险研究,2011,( 9) : [11] 贺寨平. 社会经济地位社会支持网与农村老年人身心状况 [J]. 中国社会科学,2002,( 3) : [12] 解垩. 健康健康冲击与退休 [J]. 山西财经大学学报,2010,( 10) : [13] 金刚. 中国退休年龄的现状问题及实施延迟退休的必要性分析 [J]. 社会保障研究,2010,( 2) : [14] 李春玲. 当代中国社会的声望分层职业声望与社会经济地位指数测量 [J]. 社会学研究,2005, ( 2) : [15] 梁玉成. 市场转型过程中的国家与市场一项基于劳动力退休年龄的考察 [J]. 中国社会科学,2007, ( 5) : [16] 林忠晶, 龚六堂. 退休年龄教育年限与社会保障 [J]. 经济学季刊,2007,( 1) : [17] 刘军. 管理研究方法 : 原理与应用 [M]. 北京 : 中国人民大学出版社,2008. [18] 马玉霞, 张兵. 社会经济地位测量方法的研究进展 [J]. 中国健康教育,2011,27( 5) : [19] 钱锡红, 申曙光. 经济收入和健康状况对退休期望的影响 [J]. 经济管理,2012,34( 3) : [20] 权小锋, 吴世农, 文芳. 管理层权力私有收益与薪酬操纵 [J]. 经济研究,2010,( 11) :

9 [21] 王增文. 城镇居民基本养老保险基金的财政支出与退休年龄的敏感性分析 [J]. 保险研究,2010,( 1) : [22] 郑春荣, 刘慧倩. 我国弹性退休年龄制度设计基于美国相关制度的实践 [J]. 人口学刊,2011,( 3) : The Impact of Incumbents' Socioeconomic Status on Expected Retirement Age Qian Xi-hong 1,2,Shen Shu-guang 1,2 ( 1. Lingnan College,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou ; 2. Sun Yat-sen University Social Security Research Center,Guangzhou ) Abstract: As China's population gradually ages,research on the retirement age catches increasing attention in recent years. Previous studies explored retirement age mostly from a macro point of view,or make ex-post analysis by means of data from the retired. Empirical research on factors impacting individual expected retirement age from a micro point of view is rare to find. This study made an empirical theoretical analysis on the basis of 4971 valid questionnaires from five southern provinces. The results showed that: the retirement age was positively correlated to position level,namely,the higher the position level the later employees expect to retire; the relationship between education and expected retirement age was not a simple linear form,but a U-shaped curve relationship; the relationship between income and expected retirement age was not a simple positive form either,but an inverted U-shaped relationship. The results have important implications for public administrations and business communities. Key words: retirement age; socioeconomic status; education; income; position level 110

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, , 10, , %, % %; %, % %,2030,, 2., ,90%, 2011 6 108 Journal of Shanghai Finance University No.6, 2011 Apr No.108,2011, 2011 4, ( 200020)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :, : ; ; :C913.6 :A :1673-680X(2011)06-0005-12!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!,,