Keywords social pension system gap postponing retirement age ~ 3 4 Andrew A. Samwick 5 Pestieau Bovenberg Breyer & Hupfeld 6 ~ 8

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Keywords social pension system gap postponing retirement age ~ 3 4 Andrew A. Samwick 5 Pestieau Bovenberg Breyer & Hupfeld 6 ~ 8"

瑚尹
5 years ago
Views:

1 POPULATION & ECONOMICS No Tot. No 袁磊 : 为研究延迟退休年龄能否解决养老保险资金缺口问题, 建立养老保险资金缺口测算模型, 并通过对四个关键变量的动态假定设定, 组合出 72 种不同条件, 以求尽可能涵盖未来我国各种可能的经济环境在这些条件组合下, 对三种延迟退休年龄方案进行模拟, 并从四个维度对结果进行分析结果表明 : 延迟退休可以推迟养老保险资金缺口来临的时间窗口, 并缓解养老保险资金缺口规模, 但并不能解决养老保险资金缺口问题养老保险资金缺口的解决不能仅仅依靠延迟退休年龄养老保险 ; 资金缺口 ; 延迟退休年龄 F DOI /j. issn A Can the Gap of Social Pension Fund Problem Be Settled by Postponing Retirement Age Simulations of Three Postponing Retirement Age Proposals under 72 Different Conditions YUAN Lei School of Economics Shandong University of Finance and Economics Jinan China Abstract In order to study whether the gap of social pension fund can be settled by postponing retirement age this paper establishes a measure model of endowment social pension funding gap and designs 72 different conditions with 4 dynamic assumptions so that every possible economy environment of China in future could be covered. Then this paper analyzes the model result from four angles. The results indicate that postponing retirement can delay the time that gap of social pension fund appear as well as reduce the scale of the gap. However postponing retirement cannot solve the problem completely YJC YJS005 82

2 Keywords social pension system gap postponing retirement age ~ 3 4 Andrew A. Samwick 5 Pestieau Bovenberg Breyer & Hupfeld 6 ~ James % % GDP % 18 83

3 表 1 模型符号说明 19 S i i 20 L i i I i i LT i i C i i B i i 2010 J i i 2011 ~ W i i WR i i 2050 PM i j i j i j PM PW i j i j i j i - 1 j - 1 Z i i PM i -1 j - 1 N i i 2010 Y i i D i i i 0 i - 1 DC i i P i i Q i i S i = L i I i R i i ss i i L i = LT i C i B i J i I i = W i WR i W i +1 = W i 1 + yy i L i = P PM i j + Q PW i j j = R j = R ww i yy i i i Z i = N i Y i N i = C i * B i * J i * 100 PM i j PW i j j = P j = Q Y i +1 = Y i * 1 + yy i D i = S i - Z i DC i = b D* 1 + ss j b - j a b j = a 2012 DC

4 MATLAB ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ % % % 1. 75% 95% % ~ ~ % % 8% 28% 20% 21 28% ~ % 24 ~ % 26 ~ 27 9% 28 3% 5% 7% 9% % 30 6% 7% 8% ~ 2010 Logistic % 58. 5% 55% 85

5 % 1. 2% 90% 90% 4 2 表 2 动态变量假设一览 % % % MATLAB 72 1 ~ 4 a b ~ d 1 ~ a % % % %

6 图 1 不同条件下养老保险当年资金缺口模拟 1 - b ~ d a a b ~ d 87

7 图 2 当年资金缺口占当年收入模拟 d 2031 N 3 - a ~ b ~ d

8 图 3 不同条件下养老保险累计资金缺口模拟 ~ ~ b ~ d ~ ~ 6 89

2014 4 图 4 累计资金缺口占当年收入模拟 3 ~ 6 1 表 3 参加工作年龄对累计资金缺口的影响 22 23 24 14 10 14 10 15 9 10 14 14 10 14 10 16 8 16 8 19 5 表 4 工资退休金增长率对累计资金缺口的影响 3% 5% 7%

9 图 4 累计资金缺口占当年收入模拟 3 ~ 6 1 表 3 参加工作年龄对累计资金缺口的影响表 4 工资退休金增长率对累计资金缺口的影响 3% 5% 7% 9% 表 5 养老保险基金收益率对累计资金缺口的影响 6% 7% 8%

10 表 6 年城镇化增长率对累计资金缺口的影响 1% 1. 2% ~ 表 7 各个延迟退休方案下养老保险累计资金缺口情况

12 1. J J M Helmuth Cremer Pierre Pestieau. Economic Review Reforming Our Pensionsystem Is It a Demographic Financial or Political Problem J. European 5 Andrew A. Samwick. New Evidence on Pensions Social Security and the Timing of Retirement J Journal of Public Economics Cremer I. L. P. Pestieau. The Double Dividend of Postponing Retirement J. International Tax and Public Finance Bovenberg L. 8 Breyer F. S. A. Financing Retirement in the European Union J. International Tax and Public Finance Hupfeld. On the Fainess of Early Retirement Provisions J. German Economic Review M / / J M J James H. Stock David A. Wise. Pensions the Option Value of Work and Retirement J. Econometrica N J J J J J J J J J J [ 责任编辑方志 ] 93

20 79 Bateman APRA ATO GDP APRA % %

20 79 Bateman APRA ATO GDP APRA % % 2012 1 159 2012 1 Comparative Economic & Social Systems No. 1 2012 Jan. 2012 20 1997 2001 2008 F81 A 1003-3947 2012 01-0078-11 1991 20 20 Superannuation 19 20 80 50% 30% 25% Bateman and Piggott 2001 1991