TFR Kohler Billari Ortega Bongaarts Feeney 1998 Kohler Billari Ortega TFR Bil
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1 Vol. 38 No. 1 January Population Research * % Low Fertility Trap Theories Facts and Implications Jin Yongai Abstract The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis proposes that there are three self-reinforcing mechanisms demographic sociological and economic working towards a downward spiral in future fertility. Once TFRdrops below 1. 5 it will be difficult to recover. The fertility recovery emerging in many countries across the world has challenged the low-fertility trap theory and also the justification of the theory itself. So low-fertility trap is more likely a pattern summarized from a short-time phenomenon than a generalized social law. As with China the current fertility level is above 1. 5 births per woman and China is not in the Low-fertility trap. Moreover most recent surveys suggest that current fertility intention in China is above 1. 8 births per woman and more than 60 percent of people would have a second child if there is an adjustment of fertility policy. In addition birth postponement is still playing an import role in reducing TFRin China. Thus with the high fertility intention adjustment of family planning policy and decreasing tempo effect TFRin China will experience upturn but not further decline in the near future. It is lack of evidence to conclude that China has already been or is going to be trapped in low fertility. Keywords Low Fertility Lowest-low Fertility Low Fertility Trap Fertility Policy Authors Jin Yongai is PhD Candidate Center for Population and Development Studies Renmin University of China. Beijing jinyongai0416@ 126. com * 13XNH183
2 TFR Kohler Billari Ortega Bongaarts Feeney 1998 Kohler Billari Ortega TFR Billari 2008 Population Implosion Chesnais 2001 Lutz Shirbekk Lutz Lutz Skirbekk Testa TFR Goldstein Sobotka Jasilioniene TFR Lutz Skirbekk Kohler Billari and Ortega lowest-low fertility TFR 1. 5 very low fertility
3 1 5 Kohler 2002 McDonald 2005 TFR 1. 5 TFR Lutz Skirbekk 2005 Rindfuss 2004 Lutz Skirbekk Lutz Skirbekk Lutz Skirbekk Lutz Lutz Skirbekk Testa 2006 Lutz Feedback Loop Demographic Regime Lutz ~ ~ 34 Lutz 2007 TFR
4 6 38 Kaneko ~ ~ Census and Statistics Department Goldstein Sobotka Jasilioniene World Population Prospects The 2012 Revision 1 Figure 1 1 Total Fertility Rate Trends by Region in Europe United Nations World Population Prospects The 2012 Revision http / / esa. un. org /unpd /wpp /Excel-Data /fertility. htm
5 Figure 2 Total Fertility Rate Trends in Selected Countries since Co-Director Sobotka T. and Shkolnikov V. M. The Human Fertility Database. http / /www. humanfertility. org / cgi-bin / main. php 2 OECD OECD Family Database. OECD Paris http / /www. oecd. org /social /family /database 3 Population Reference Bureau. World Population Datasheet. http / /www. prb. org /Publications /Datasheets
6 a 2b 2c 2d 2e f Goldstein Sobotka Jasilioniene Kohler Billari Ortega 2002 Billari 2008 Bongaarts 2002 Sobotka 2004 Bongaarts Feeney 1998 TFR Tempo-adjusted TFR 2011 TFRp * Tempo and Parity-adjusted Total Fertility Bongaarts Sobotka 2011 Bongaats Bongaarts 2002 Bongaarts Sobotka European Commission 2011 Caltabiano 2009 Iwasawa Kaneko 2010 Goldstein Sobotka Jasilioniene 2009 TFR Caltabiano Castiglioni Rosina 2009 TFR TFR Goldstein Sobotka Jasilioniene 2009 Luci Thévenon
7 1 9 Goldstein ~ OECD GDP GDP TFR TFR Myrskyl 2009 HDI J HDI HDI TFR ~ HDI 2005 Luci Thévenon 2010 HDI GDP OCED 1960 ~ 2007 GDP GDP GDP Varvarigos 2013 N J 3 Lutz 2007 Sobotka Lutz % Matysiak 2011 Luci-Greulich Thévenon 2013 Kalwij Alkema Raftery Gerland et al Collins Richards 2013 Day 2012a 2012b Alkema 2011 TFR
8 TFR 2045 ~ Collins Richards 2013 Genetic Model OECD Day 2012b Lutz Skirbekk Goldstein Sobotka Jasilioniene TFR ~ 10 Lutz 2011 TFR Sobotka Lutz TFR Mcdonald
9 Lutz Lutz ~ Lutz Skirbekk Testa 2007 Lutz Luci Thévenon 2010 Sobotka Skirbekk Philipov Lutz ~ ~ % ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 2010
10 ~ TFR ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ % CCTV ~ ~ % % 2 20 ~ 24 80% 25 ~ 29 70%
11 ~ % % 59% 67. 2% 60% Lutz ~ ~ ~ ~
12 / References 1 Alkema L. Raftery A. E. Gerland P. Clark S. J. Pelletier F. Buettner T. and Heilig G. K Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries. Demography Billari F. C Lowest-low Fertility in Europe Exploring the Causes and Finding Some Surprises. The Japanese Journal of Population Bongaarts J. and Sobotka T A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility. Population and Development Review Bongaarts J. and Sobotka T Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility Analysis Based on the Tempo and Parity-adjusted Total Fertility. European Demographic Research Paper 4 Vienna Institute of Demography. 5 Bongaarts J The End of the Fertility Transition in the Developed World. Population and Development Review Bongaarts J. and Feeney G On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility. Population and Development Review Caltabiano M. Castiglioni M. and Rosina A Lowest-low Fertility Signs of a Recovery in Italy. Demographic Research Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong Population Projections Hong Kong. Accessed in December 20 th 2013 at http / /www. statistics. gov. hk /pub /B XXXXB0200. pdf. 9 Chesnais J. C Comment A March toward Population Recession. in R. A. Bulatao and J. B. Casterline eds. Global Fertility Transition Supplement to Population and Development Review 27. New York Population Council Collins J. and Richards O Evolution Fertility and the Ageing Population. UWA Economics Discussion Papers European Commission Demography Report 2010 Older More Numerous and Diverse Europeans Commission Staff Working Document. Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. 12 Day C. 2012a. Economic Growth Gender Wage Gap and Fertility Rebound. Economic Record Day C. 2012b. Will Fertility Rebound in Japan Australia-Japan Research Centre. 14 Goldstein J. R. Sobotka T. and Jasilioniene A The End of Lowest-Low Fertility Population and Development Review Iwasawa M. and Kaneko R Explanations for Regional Fertility Reversal after 2005 in Japan Demographic Socioeconomic and Cultural Factors. Conference of European Statisticians. Lisbon Portugal April Kalwij A The Impact of Family Policy Expenditure on Fertility in Western Europe. Demography Kaneko R. Ishikawa A. Ishii F. Sasai T. Iwasawa M. Mita F. and Moriizumi R Population Projections for Japan Outline of Results Methods and Assumptions. The Japanese Journal of Population Kohler H. P. Billari F. C. and Ortega J. A The Emergence of Lowest-low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s. Population and Development Review Kohler H. P. Billari F. C. and Ortega J. A Low Fertility in Europe Causes Implications and Policy Options. The Baby Bust Who Will Do the Work Luci-Greulich A. and Thévenon O The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries. European Journal of Population /Revue Européenne de Démographie Luci A. and Thévenon O Does Economic Development Drive the Fertility Rebound in OECD Countries Part of the International Collaborative Research Project REPRO Reproductive Decision-making in a Macro-micro Perspective for
13 1 15 the European Commission. 22 Lutz W The Future of Human Reproduction Will Birth Rates Recover or Continue to Fall. Ageing Horizons Lutz W. Skirbekk V. and Testa M. R New Empirical Evidence on the Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis Presented at the Population Association of America 2007 Annual Meeting. New York March Lutz W. Skirbekk V. and Testa M. R The Low-fertility Trap Hypothesis Forces That May Lead to Further Postponement and Fewer Births in Europe. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Lutz W. and Skirbekk V Policies Addressing the Tempo Effect in Low-fertility Countries. Population and Development Review Lutz W. O'Neill B. C. and Scherbov S Europe's Population at a Turning Point. Science Matysiak A Fertility Developments in Central and Eastern Europe the Role of Work-Family Tensions. Demográfia McDonald P Low Fertility in Singapore Causes Consequences and Policies. Paper Presented at the Forum on Population and Development in East Asia Beijing May Myrskyl M. Kohler H. P. and Billari F. C Advances in Development Reverse Fertility Declines. Nature Rindfuss R. Choe M. K. Bumpass L. L. and Tsuya. N. O Social Networks and Family Change in Japan. A- merican Sociological Review Sobotka T. Skirbekk V. and Philipov D Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World. Population and Development Review Sobotka T. and Lutz W Misleading Policy Messages Derived from the Period TFR Should We Stop Using It Comparative Population Studies-Zeitschrift für Bev lkerungswissenschaft Sobotka T Is Lowest-low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing Population and Development Review Varvarigos D A Theory of Demographic Transition and Fertility Rebound in the Process of Economic Development. Working Paper No. 13 / Cai Yong. China s Ultra Low Fertility in the Context of Globalization Challenges and Opportunities. Edited by Wang Feng Peng Xizhe Gu Baochang et al Globalization and Low Fertility China s Options. Shanghai Fudan University Press Chen Wei Assessment of Fertility Level Since 2000 in China. Academia Bimestris Chen Wei and Gao Shuang Quantum and Tempo of Fertility in China. Population Research Cui Hongyan Xu Lan and Li Rui An Evaluation of Data Accuracy of the 2010 Population Census of China. Population Research Hao Juan and Qiu Changrong A Comparative Analysis of the Fertility of the Urban and Rural Areas in China Since South China Population Guo Zhigang Population Census Data Indicates Serious Miscount in Past Population Estimation and Projection. Chinese Journal of Population Science
14 Guo Zhigang China's Low Fertility and Its Determinants. Population Research Huang Kuangshi and Ma Xiaohong Review of Theories on Low Fertility. Journal of Fujian School of Administration Li Handondg and Li Liu Estimating China's Fertility Level Since 2000 Based on the 6th Population Census. Chinese Journal of Population Science http / /opinion. caixin. com / / html Huang Wenzheng and Liang Jianzhang Why is Two-children Policy not Enough. Caixin http / / opinion. caixin. com / / html. August http / /opinion. caixin. com / / html Liang Jianzhang and Huang Wenzheng Two-children Policy for the Couple without Siblings is Only a Drop in the Bucket for Fertility Recovery. Caixin http / /opinion. caixin. com / / html November Mu Guangzong Low-fertility Trap is a Great Threat to a Powerful Nation. Xinhua Monthly Shen Ke Wang Feng and Cai Yong Implications of International Population Policies for China. International Economic Review Shi Renbin Low Fertility Trap Truth or Myth Population Research E25 Su Ling and Yao Yongyong China is in the Low-fertility Trap. Southern Weekly May 19 E Tao Tao and Yang Fan The Impact of China s Family Planning Policy on Demographic Transition. Population Research Wang Jinying and Ge Yanxia Assessment of 2010 Census Data Quality and Past Population Changes. Population Research Wang Jun and Wang Guangzhou Assessment of Fertility Intention and Its Impact among People at Childbearing A- ges. Chinese Journal of Population Science Yang Fan and Zhao Menghan China s Fertility Level since 2000 A Reestimation. Population Research Zeng Yi. Urgent Implementation of Two-children and Late-birth Policy. Edited by Zeng Yi Gu Baochang Liang Jianzhang and Guo Zhigang Fertility Policy Adjustment and Development in China. Beijing Social Sciences Academic Press
15 1 17 Zhu Qing. Estimation on Fertility Level in China Preliminary Study Based on the 2010 Population Census. Chinese Journal of Population Science http / /zqb. cyol. com /html / /22 /nw. D110000zgqnb_ _2-03. htm Zhang Jian and Zhang Guo China should be Aware of the Ultra Low Fertility. China Youth Daily http / / zqb. cyol. com /html / /22 /nw. D110000zgqnb_ _2-03. htm May http / /finance. ifeng. com/ news /macro / / shtml Wang Ling and Fu Jingjing Cai Yong China should be Aware of the Ultra Low Fertility Adjustment of Fertility Policy should be Accelerated. China Business News http / /finance. ifeng. com /news /macro / / shtml December ~ 23 China Population Association China Population Association 2013 Annual Meeting. Beijing December CCTV.. http / /news. cntv. cn /2013 /11 /17 /VIDE shtml CCTV One on One Zhai Zhenwu Explain Two-children Policy for the Couple without Siblings. http / / news. cntv. cn /2013 /11 /17 /VIDE shtml November
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third in 20 years. The student population will be in the range of million before Keywords education age population family planning
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41 4 2017 7 Vol. 41 No. 4 July 2017 82 Population Research 2013 100872 Hukou Relocation andregistered Population Urbanization Hou Yajie Abstract In the Chinese context migration is defined to be move withhukou
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第 34 卷 第 5 期 2015 年 10 月 Vol. 34 No. 5 Oct 2015 江汉学术 Jianghan Academic 基层社会治理中的底线逻辑 基于农村计划生育实践的分析 陈 恩 中共海南省委党校 科研处 海口 571100 摘 要 在农村计划生育中 基层政府承担着出生控制和社会秩序双重矛盾的职责底线 而农民的生育底线牢 不可破 基层政府的底线逻辑根源在于压力型体制所建立的单向责任模式
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具有多个输入 特别是多个输出的 部门 或 单位 ( 称为 决策单元 Decision Making Unit 简称 DMU) 间的相对有效 8 性 C2R 模型是 DEA 的个模型 也是 DEA 的基础 和重要模型 假设有 n 个决策单元 DMUj( j = 1 2 3 n) 每个 DMU 有 m
基于 DEA 模型的 我国政府社会管理职能绩效评价研究 以 30 个省 ( 直辖市 自治区 ) 为统计样本的实证分析 * 李超显 摘 要 政府社会管理职能绩效评价是政府管理中的一个重点和难点问题 本文采用数据包络分析模型对中 30 国 30 个省( 直辖市 自治区) 的政府社会管理职能绩效进行时空差异分析和实证评价 研究发现 个省( 直辖市 自治区) 的政府社会管理职能绩效具有空间差异性 雁行形态和区域梯度性
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广东外经贸蓝皮书 13 中巴经贸合作与发展的现状及对策 基于广东的视角 蔡春林 摘 要: 巴西是发展最快的新兴经济体之一, 在未来世界经济的发展格 局中将具有重要的战略地位, 与巴西加强经贸合作具有重要的战略意义 本 文在考察中国与巴西经贸合作的基础上, 重点分析了广东与巴西经贸合作中 的现状与潜力 通过分析与研究发现巴西是广东最为重要的新兴经济体出口 市场和资源供应地之一, 巴西政府也已经把广东当做重要的市场和战略投资
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