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1 Vol. 40 No. 1 January Population Research 1970 * ~ Trends in the Second Birth Interval in China since 1970 Zhang Cuiling Liu Hongyan Wang Xiaofeng Abstract This study examines the trends in and the impact of birth spacing policy on the second birth interval in China since 1970s using the population monitoring data in 121 Chinese counties.the birth spacing policy plays a significant role in regulating people s fertility behaviors thus slowing down population growth in China.Specifically changes in second birth intervals have gone through three stages a long-term stability before 1990s an increase from 1990 to 2005 and a decline since 2006 implying a dynamic relationship with the birth interval regulation.conditions for continuing the current birth spacing policy aiming at later birth longer interval and less children no longer exist.thus the focus on birth spacing needs to be switched from a policy orientation to a health orientation. Keywords Second Birth Interval Birth Spacing Policy Population Monitoring Data Authors Zhang Cuiling is Associate Professor Department of Demographic Data Laboratory China Population and Development Research Center and PhD Candidate Northeast Asian Studies Academy Jilin University zcl_cpdrc@ 126.com Liu Hongyan is Professor China Population and Development Research Center Wang Xiaofeng is Professor Northeast Asian Studies Academy Jilin University.

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5 % 1 15 ~ % % 2 15 ~ Table 1 Age Structure of Married Women of Child bearing Ages in 2013 % ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

6 Table 2 Characteristics of Women Who Ever Born Two Children in Database of 121 Population Monitoring Counties in 2013 % ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Table 3 3 Second Birth Interval in China since 1970 from Different Data Source

7 Figure1 1 Second Birth Interval in China from Different Data Source ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Figure 2 Second Birth Interval in China since

8 ~ Figure 3 Second Birth Interval in China since 1970 by Major Region ~ Figure Second Birth Interval in China since 1970 by Urban and Rural Residence

9 Figure 5 5 Second Birth Interval in China since 1970 by Ethnic Group

10 78 40 Table 4 4 Second Birth Interval by Whether Violating Family-Planning Policy and by Children s Health Condition at Birth Table 5 5 Second Birth Interval by Women s Education Level Age of Second Birth and the Number of Induced Abortion between First and Second Births ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ /

11 ~ Table 6 Cumulative Number of Provinces Implementing Second Birth Spacing Policy since /

12 Table 7 Cumulative Number of Provinces Terminating Second Birth Spacing Policy since ~

13 Figure 6 6 Variations in Second Birth Interval and Provinces Establishing Birth Spacing Policy by Year / Figure 7 7 Second Birth Interval before and after the Implementation of Birth Spacing Policy

14 Figure 8 Changes in Second Birth Interval of Some Provinces Since Table 8 Comparison Table of Year When Birth Interval Starting to Decline and Year When Abolishing Birth Spacing Policy in Some Provinces

15 Figure 9 Changes in age at first and Second Birth and second birth Interval Since ~

16 Table 9 9 The Provinces with Birth Spacing Policy until 2014 and Policy Conditions

17 Howard 2013 Amanda ~ 3 /References Chen Jianli Analysis on Trend of Birth Interval between the First and Second Child. Population and Economics Chen Wei Sex Preference and Fertility Behaviors of Chinese Women. Population Research Du Mingyu Ma Runmei Wang Mingfang et al Effect of Interpregnancy Interval of the Women at Childbearing Age on Pregnancy Outcome in Kunming. Maternal & Child Health Care of China Fu Chonghui Zhang Linghua and Li Yuzhu Characteristics of the Changes of Fertility in China Based on the Sixth Census. Statistics Research Fu Chonghui Wang Wenjuan and Li Xuchun Fertility Change in China andits Influencing Factors An Analysis of the Sixth Census. South China Population HLM Ge Jianjun Contemporary Chinese Women s Birth Intervals An HLM Analysis. Guizhou Education Press Gu Baochang Fertility and Fertility Transition Number Timing and Sex of Children. Population Research Guo Zhigang and Li Jianzhao Second Birth Intervals in Rural China An HLM Analysis. Population Research Guo Zhigang Chinese Journal of Population Science ~ Li Chuxiang Wei Zhuochun Wang Tao et al Fertility Level and Model in China between 1998 and Chinese Journal of Health Statistics Liu Shuang and Zou Mingru Birth Interval between First and Second Child and Its Policy Implications. Population research Qiao Xiaochun Exploration of Population Development Target under Different Birth Intervals and Parities. Population and Economics

18 ~ Tu Ping Analysis on Distribution of Birth Interval by Parity in Shaanxi Province Chinese Journal of Population Science Wang Guangzhou Problems and Reflections in Fertility Policy Adjustment Research. China Journal of Population Science Wang Jun The Effects of Family Planning Policy on the Birth Interval between the First and the Second Child. South China Population Wu Xiwei The Effects of First Marriage and First Birth on Second Birth Interval for Chinese Women at Childbearing Ages A Study Using Split Population Survival Model. China Journal of Population Science Xu hang and Liang Haiyan An Analysis of the Fertility Concentration Ratio of Reproductive Women in China. South China Population Lei Li and Minja Kim Choe A Mixture Model for Duration Data Analysis of Second Birth in China. Demography Elizabeth J. Howard Emily Harville Patricia Kissinger et al The Association between Short Inter Pregnancy Interval and Preterm Birth in Louisiana A Comparison of Methods. Maternal Child Health AmandaW Cassandra MG Stacey P et al Impact of In-creasing Inter-pregnancy Interval on Maternal and Infant Health. Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology. Suppl

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y * 35 4 2011 7 Vol. 35 No. 4 July 2011 3 Population Research 1950 ~ 1981 The Estimation Method and Its Application of Cohort Age - specific Fertility Rates Wang Gongzhou Hu Yaoling Abstract Based on the