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练吊奴扶
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1 Vol1 34, No1 1 January Population Research 3,, %,,,,,,, ; ;, : Imp a c t s of Fl o a t i n g P op ul a t i o n o n Cu r r e n t F e r t i l i t y i n Chi n a Gu o Zhi g a n g Ab s t r a c t : S ocial c ha ng e ha s b e e n r e ma rka bly c ha r a c t e riz e d by g r e a t w a ve s of f lo a ting p op ula tion und e r e c onomic r ef o rm ove r t he la s t t hr e e d e c a d e s. How e ve r, it s e e ms uncle a r how t he f lo a ting p op ula tion ha ve ha d imp a c t s on f e r tilit y. B a s e d on d a t a f r om t he 2005 one p e r c e nt p op ula tion s a mpling s ur ve y, t he o b t aine d f e r tilit y r a t e s of f e male f lo a ting p op ula2 tion a r e muc h low e r t ha n t hos e of t heir non2f lo a ting c ount e rp a r t. Comp a ris on of f e r tilit y b e2 t w e e n t he t w o g r oup s a r e c a r rie d out f ur t he r by a g e p a t t e r n, by bir t h o r d e r, a s w ell a s by s t a t us of hous e hold r e gis t r a tion. The p ap e r c onclud e s t ha t f lo a ting move me nt do c ont ribut e t o f e r tilit y d e cline. Ke yw o r d s : Flo a ting Pop ula tion, Fe r tilit y, S t a t us of Hous e hold Re gis t r a tion Au t h o r : Guo Zhig a ng is P r of e s s o r, Dep a r t me nt of S ociology, Pe king Unive rsit y, B eijing , China. z ku. e du. c n 3 " " ( :08AR K001)

2 ,, , 1 (,2006) %, 1. 47,, %, 4. 5, 84 %(,2008a,2008b,2009),,,,, : %, %,?,,,,,,,,, (2006),,, ( ),,,,,,,,, ;

3 1 21,,, (2008),,,,,,,,, %, (R6) ( R7) ( R8),,, (2008a,2008b,2009),,,, %, 2005, % ( ), 1,, ,, 0. 29, , % % 9. 1 %,,, ( MAC ;MAC Mean Age at Childbearing),,, 0. 53, 0. 88, 1. 02,,

4 Table 1 Total Fertility Rate and Mean Age at Childbearing by Birth Order for Floating/ Non - Floating Females in TFR MAC TFR MAC TFR MAC : %, : TFR,MAC 1,,,,,, Figure 1 Fertility Rates by Age and Birth Order for Floating/ Non - Floating Females in 2005 : %,,,,,

5 1 23 1, , (!), , 0. 45,!, % % 9. 6 %,,,, (0. 934) (0. 895),,, 1,,, 0. 6,, 0. 4,, 2,, 2,,, 1, (1. 19) (0. 934) (0. 895),, 1. 64, %, % 20 29, %( 3 ),,,, ( ),, % 20 29, %, ( )

24 34, 2005, 1. 438, 1. 371 0. 068, 4. 7 % (1. 635), 1. 545 0. 090, 5.

6 24 34, 2005, , , 4. 7 % (1. 635), , 5. 5 %,, Figure 2 Fertility Rates by Age and Registration Status for Floating/ Non - Floating Females in Figure 3 Women s Composition by Age, Registration Status, and Floating/ Non - Floating Status in 2005,,,,,,,,,,,

7 1 25, 4 (2009) 2006,, %, ( ),, TFR,,,,,,,,,, 4, %, % , 20,, ( 4 ), 4 Figure 4 Age Composition and Percent Single by Age for Floating/ Non - Floating Women, ( TMFR) ( 2 ),, , ,

8 26 34,,, %, 5. 3 %,, Table 2 Total Married Fertility Rate by Birth Order for Floating/ Non - Floating Females in ,, 15 16,,, 4, 100 %,, %,,,, 20 : 2. 16, Figure 5 Fertility Rates of the Married by Age for Floating/ Non - Floating Females, ,

9 1 27 5,, ;,,,, 15,, 2. 7, ,?, (2009) 2006,, %,,, %,,, , TFR ( ),, 4, TFR Table 3 Total Fertility Rate Adjusted by Marital Status for Floating/ Non - Floating Females in 2005 : :

10 , (1. 603) (1. 635), (1. 189) (1. 188),,, ( 6 ) 6 Figure 6 Percent Single by Age and Registration Status for Floating/ Non - Floating Women, :, 5,,, %,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

11 1 29 / Reference : 1,.., 2006 ;1 :13 20 Chen Wei and Wu Lili Research on the Relationship s between Migration and Fertility in China. Population Research 1,pp ,..., : Duan Chengrong and Yang Ge The Current State of Floating Population in China. Paper Collection of Inter2 national Conference on Social Service Policy and Family Welfare in China. Center of Population and Development Studies, Renmin University. pp ,,,..,2008 ;6 :30 43 Duan Chengrong, Yang Ge, Zhang Fei, and L u Xuehe Nine Trends in China s Floating Population since Re2 form and Openning up. Population Research 6, pp ,,..,2009 ;4 : Duan Chengrong, Zhang Fei, and L u Xuehe State of Migrant Women in China. Collection of Women s Studies 4, pp ,2008 ;4 : 1 12 Guo Zhigang China s Low Fertility and Its Determinants. Population Research, 4 : pp , 2009 ;2 : 2 15 Guo Zhigang Origin of the Notable Rise of Fertility in China in Recent Years : Evaluation of the 2006 Nation2 al Demographic and Family Planning Survey. Chinese Journal of Population Science 2, pp2-15. ( : : )

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y * 35 4 2011 7 Vol. 35 No. 4 July 2011 3 Population Research 1950 ~ 1981 The Estimation Method and Its Application of Cohort Age - specific Fertility Rates Wang Gongzhou Hu Yaoling Abstract Based on the