Morgan et al Peng Peng 1991 Scharping 2003 Greenhalgh and Winckler Zheng et al Cai

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1 Vol. 36 No. 6 November Population Research Development -driven or Policy -shaped Fertility Decline An Analysis of the Two -child Program in Yicheng County Wei Yan Zhang Li Abstract Over the last three decades China s fertility has declined consistently and substantially to the below - replacement level. Main forces shaping such fertility change and their impacts on the adjustment of population - control policy have been debated in academic circles. Based on a careful study of a venerable two - child program in Yicheng County which has been perceived as an unique case of birth - control experiment for almost thirty years this paper demonstrates that the Yicheng program is an adapted and adjusted but tenacious continuity from the national population control process in terms of the timing of marriage the number of children and the childbearing interval. Fertility outcomes in Yicheng are largely a function of birth rationing even though socioeconomic developments are given as part of the mixture of explanations for fertility decline. Keywords The Yicheng Trial Program The Conditional Two - Child Option Fertility Decline Birth - Control Policy Authors Wei Yan is Professor and Director Institute for Population and Development Studies Xi an University of Finance and Economics and Zhang Li is Professor School of Social Development and Public Policy Fudan University. weiyan365@ 163. com

2 Morgan et al Peng Peng 1991 Scharping 2003 Greenhalgh and Winckler Zheng et al Cai Greenhalgh 1986 Tien

3 Greenhalgh Bongaarts and Greenhalgh

4 Table ~ 1982 Transformation from a Voluntary Family Planning Program into a Mandatory Birth - control Policy ~ ~ 珮 1997 Scarping 2003 Greenhalgh 2008 Table 2 2 Chronology of Two - Child Program in Yicheng County

6 a b c % %

7 Figure Trial Areas for Second Births 珮 Scarping Bongaarts and Feeney

8 ~ Figure ~ 2011 Population Size and Birth Rates Yicheng County and Shaanxi Province PPR

9 ~ 1991 Table 3 TFR TPR and PPP of Yicheng County PPR GDP

10 Table 4 Selected Indicators on Not Meeting Birth - control Requirements % ~ 2011 Table 5 Results of the OLS Regression Models ~ ~ ~ 2011 GDP % *** * *** *** *** * *** R ***p < **p < * p < a b

11 /References Du Yulin and Fan Jiheng Fifty Years of Linfen Prefecture Beijing China Statistics Press Gu Baochang The Practices and Implications of the Two - child Policy. Population Research Gu Baochang and Wang Feng An Experiment of Eight Million People Reports from Areas with Two - Child Poli- 1

12 24 36 cy. Beijing China Social Sciences Academic Press Ding Junfeng Analysis about the Impact of Changes in Fertility Pattern on Fertility Level for China Between Population Research Guo Zhigang Lifetime Fertility of Chinese Women A Look at the Recent Period Fertility Behaviour. Population Research Li Jianxin Concerns and Evaluation on the Implementation of Late Marriage Late Childbearing Plus Spacing Policy in Yicheng County. Shanxi Province Population Research Liang Zhongtang Several Opinions on China s Population Development Strategy in the Next Few Decades. Paper Presented in Symposium on the Second National Population Science. Chengdu December Liang Zhongtang A Report on the Yicheng Experiment of Family Planning. South China Population Liang Zhongtang An Analysis of Contextual Background of One - childization Policy in Liang On Changing and Reforming the Family Planning system Unpublished Personal Memo Liang Zhongtang and Tan Ke Jian Demographic Analysis of the Implementation of Late Marriage Late Childbearing plus Spacing Birth Policy in Yicheng County Shanxi Province. Chinese Journal of Population Science Liang Zhongtang Tan Kejian and Jing Shimin A Compilation of Materials from Field Study Conducted by the China Population Association on the Implementation of Late Marriage Late Childbearing Plus Spacing Birth Policy Internal Publication April Liu Shuang Implication of Implementation of Late Marriage Late Childbearing Plus Spacing Two - birth Policy in Yicheng County Shanxi Province. Population Research Liu Shuang He Hong Zhu Lin An Hui et al A study of Late Marriage Late Childbearing and Prolonged Birth Interval in a Two - child Fertility Policy in Experiment Area In Gu Baochang and Wang Feng eds. An Experiment of Eight Million People Reports from Areas with Two - child Policy. Beijing China Social Sciences Academic Press Liu Zheng Wu Cangping Lin Fude Five Recommendation for Controlling China s Population Growth. Population Research 珮 Peng Peiyun An Almanac of China s Family Planning. Beijing China Population Publishing House

13 6 25 Qiao Xiaochun Analysis of Implementation Effect of Two - child Plus Spacing Birth Policy in Yicheng County and Xinrong District Shanxi Province State Family Planning Commission eds. A compilation of Reports on Population Development and Birth Policy in the Future Shi Renbing Concerns on Implementation Effect and Birth Control Mechanism of Two - child Policy In Gu Baochang and Wang Feng eds. An Experiment of Eight Million People Reports from Areas with Two - child Policy.. Beijing China Social Sciences Academic Press Song Jian Tian Xueyuan Li Guangyuan and Yu Jingyuan Concerning the Issue of Our County s Objective in Population Development. People s Daily 7 March Tan Kejian An analysis of The Socioeconomic Impact of Late Marriage Late Childbearing Plus Spacing Policy in Yicheng County. Economic Issues Wang Wei Further improvement of Family Planning Work During The Seventh Five - year Plan Period. A Speech in The School of The Central Committee of Chinese Communist Party on 15 November Xie Kang On Effects of Late Marriage Late Childbearing Plus Spacing Birth Approach on Population Control in Yicheng County a Perspective of Parity Progression Ratios. Population and Economics Xie Kang and Zhang Hongchang On Effects of Late Marriage Late Childbearing Plus Spacing Birth Approach on Population Control in Yicheng County. South China Population Yang Fan and Zhai Zhengwu Exploration and Establishment of The Chinese Model of Demographic Transition. Population Research Yang Juhua Deviation of Intention and Behavior Literature Review on Fertility Intention and Behavior in Developed Countries and Implication for China. Academia Bimestris Statistical Bureau of Yicheng County Fifty Years of Yicheng Conuty Internal Publication. 26 a Statistical Bureau of Yicheng County a. Tenth Five - year Plan of Yicheng Economy. Internal Publication No Indication of The Publishing year. 27 b Statistical Bureau of Yicheng County b. Eleventh Five - year Plan of Yicheng Economy. Internal Publication No Indication of The Publishing Year Zhang Chunyuan Dawn on Perfection of Birth Policy Thoughts about the Trial Two - child Policy in Yicheng County Shanxi Province. Population and Economics

14 Zhang Erli Wang Feng Gu Baochang and Lou Binbin Two Decades of Two - child Policy in Yicheng and Jiuquan I in Gu Baochang and Wang Feng eds. An Experiment of Eight Million People Reports from Areas with Two - Child Policy. Beijing China Social Sciences Academic Press The Yicheng County Party Committee and The Yicheng County Government Establishing People - centered Vision and Improving Service Level A Report on Building a National Advanced County of Quality Service in Family Planning. Internal Publication September. 31 Bongaarts John and Griffith Feeney On The Quantum and Tempo of Fertility. Population and Development Review Bongaarts John and Susan Greenhalgh An Alternative to The One - child Policy in China. Population and Development Review Cai Yong China s Below - replacement Fertility Government Policy or Socioeconomic Development Population and Development Review Greenhalgh Susan Shifts in China s Population Policy Views from The Central Provincial and Local Levels. Population and Development Review Greenhalgh Susan and Edwin A. Winckler Governing China s Population from Leninist to Neoliberal Biopolitics Stanford Stanford University Press Greenhalgh Susan Just One Child Science and Policy in Deng s China. Berkeley University of California Press. 37 Morgan S. Philip Guo Zhigang and Sarah R. Hayford China s Below - replacement Fertility Recent trends and Future Prospects. Population and Development Review Peng Xizhe Demographic Transition in China. Oxford Clarendon Press. 39 Peng Xizhe China s Demographic History and Future Challenges. Science Scharping Thomas. Birth Control in China Population Policy and Demographic Development London /New York Routledge Tien H. Yuan As China s One - two Fertility Debate Turns. Population Today Zheng Zhenzhen Cai Yong Wang Feng and Gu Baochang Below - replacement Fertility and Childbearing Intention in Jiangsu Province China. Asian Population Studies

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y

~ 10 2 P Y i t = my i t W Y i t 1000 PY i t Y t i W Y i t t i m Y i t t i 15 ~ 49 1 Y Y Y 15 ~ j j t j t = j P i t i = 15 P n i t n Y * 35 4 2011 7 Vol. 35 No. 4 July 2011 3 Population Research 1950 ~ 1981 The Estimation Method and Its Application of Cohort Age - specific Fertility Rates Wang Gongzhou Hu Yaoling Abstract Based on the