CN-SH-COR-0386HK-refining business improves, ¡§acc¡K

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1 中國石化煉油業務改善, 維持增持評級 Bloomberg Reuters POEMS 0386 HK 0386.HK 0386.HK 行業 : 石油與天然氣年報回顧評級 : 增持收市價 : 6.72 目標價 : 7.71 一季度原油價格高企, 業績同比下滑公司 2012 年一季度錄得總營業收入億元, 同比增長 14%; 實現歸屬於股東的淨利潤為億元, 同比則大幅下滑 37.4% 我們認為, 公司一季度業績的大幅下滑主要原因有兩點其一, 布倫特原油期貨價格在 2012 年前 3 個月中一直維持在 110 美元 / 桶上方, 無論是較去年同期還是末期相比都處於高位, 其中更是創出 08 年國際金融危機以來的新高, 使得公司煉油業務成本大幅攀高雖然發改委在 1 季度中連續兩次上調國內成品油價, 但由於調價均發生在一季度的中後期, 對公司煉油業務的整體業績改善並不明顯, 因此煉油業務同比和環比均出現下滑也是必然結果其二, 化工產品價格自去年四季度大幅回落之後, 今年一季度並沒有明顯好轉, 仍然保持低位震盪, 使得公司化工業務盈利也大幅下滑公司每季度營收和淨利變化情況 ( 億元人民幣 ) SINOPEC Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Phillip Securities Research Rating 2.00 Accumulate - Previous Rating 2.00 Accumulate Target Price (HKD) Previous Target Price (HKD) 9.38 Closing Price (HKD) 6.72 Expected Capital Gains (%) 14.7% Expected Dividend Yield (%) 4.9% Expected Total Return (%) 19.7% Raw Beta (Past 2yrs w eekly data) 1.46 Market Cap. (HKD mn) 649, w eek range (HKD) Closing Price in 52 w eek range Jan Jun Jul Aug Sep Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May-12 Volume, mn 386 hk equity HSI 26-May-12 二季度公司煉油業務虧損情況將明顯改善從數據上來看, 一季度公司煉油業務共虧損 91.7 億元, 虧損額是去年同期的 15 倍多 ; 共加工原油 5541 萬噸, 同比增長 2.1%; 實現成品油產量萬噸, 同比增加了 5% 造成這種局面依然是由於國內成品油價格調整不及時原油價格上行過快以及成品油銷售價格增長緩慢等原因公司為了保障國內成品油市場供應, 並沒有對成品油進行減產以減少虧損我們認為, 一季度中後期的兩次成品油價格上調 (2 月 8 日上調 300 元 / 噸 ;3 月 20 日上調 600 元 / 噸 ) 所帶來的利好效果將在二季度中得到體現另一方面, 隨著國際原油價格從二季度開始大幅回落, 發改委也相應地在二季度中後期兩次調降國內成品油價 (5 月 10 日下調 300 元 / 噸 ;6 月 9 日下調 500 元 / 噸 ) 由於國內成品油調價滯後性的存在, 當原油價格上升時, 調價滯後會造成煉油業務虧損相反, Key Financial Summary FYE F 2013F Revenue (HKD mn) 3,534,818 3,294,012 2,967,863 2,154,423 Net Profit, adj. (HKD mn) 113, ,512 88,207 82,402 EPS, adj. (HKD) P/E (X),adj BVPS (HKD) P/B (X) DPS (HKD) Div. Yield (%) 5.1% 4.9% 4.7% 3.1% Source: Bloomberg. *All multiples & yields based on current market price Valuation Method PE 輝立證券研究部 libin@phillip.com.cn (0) of 1

2 當原油價格處於下行階段時, 煉油業務盈利將會擴大因此, 以上雙重因素將推動公司煉油業務在二季度中實現扭轉公司各板塊經營收益同比變化情況 ( 億元人民幣 ) 種中長期投資在短期內難以迅速轉化成效益, 也從一定程度上影響了公司一季度的盈利水準但隨著多重利好的配合, 一季度的資本投入將在後期逐步顯現成效公司各板塊資本支出同比變化情況 ( 億元人民幣 ) 化工產品需求將回暖, 提升化工業務盈利能力一季度公司生產乙烯和合成樹脂分別為萬噸和萬噸, 同比分別減少了 3.9% 和 2.1%; 實現經營收益 13.1 億元, 同比則大降 85.94% 自去年第四季度起, 化工原料價格持續上漲化工產品需求持續低迷化工產品價格持續下行等原因造成了公司化工業務盈利大幅下滑我們認為, 隨著近期國家一系列提振實體經濟的宏觀政策出臺, 化工產品需求將逐步回暖, 化工產品價差也將逐步回升, 進而提升公司化工業務的盈利能力資本投入力度加大, 投資回報將逐步顯現 2012 年一季度公司共支出資本億元,2011 年同期資本支出僅為億元其中勘探及開採業務支出 63.1 億元, 與 2011 年同期支出基本相當 ; 行銷及分銷業務支出 63.4 億元, 同比則大幅增加了 55.2% 我們認為, 由於公司上下游業務資本支出均投入於新油田和成品油銷售等專案的建設, 這估值分析由於公司業績持續下滑, 其估值也不斷向下且處於 08 年下旬以來的底部但我們經過綜合分析, 認為其業績不佳有特定原因, 業務上行空間較大, 並預測其 2012 年將實現每股收益港元依據 7.14 倍市盈率, 我們將其 6 個月目標價定為 7.71 港元, 結合股利情況, 預測其 6 個月綜合收益率為 19.67%, 維持其增持評級相關風險 1) 政治地緣因素造成國際油價大幅反彈, 國內成品油價上調不及時導致公司煉油業務虧損進一步擴大 2) 實體經濟增速放緩導致相關石化產品需求減少, 進而影響公司盈利水準 2 of 2

3 財務報表及預測專案 ( 單位 : 百萬港元 ) 截止 12 月 31 日止年度 2013F 2012F 主營業務收入 3,534,818 3,294,012 2,967,863 2,154,423 交易盈虧 162, , , ,428 稅前利潤 149, , , ,000 異常項目前收入 120, ,129 94,495 89,519 淨利潤 113, ,512 88,207 82,402 異常專案前基本每股收益基本每股收益異常項目前攤薄每股收益攤薄每股收益每股股利總計流動資產 490, , , ,950 總資產 1,684,721 1,582,412 1,411,034 1,174,610 總計流動負債 637, , , ,804 總負債 870, , , ,596 總股東權益 814, , , ,014 每股帳面價值市盈率市淨率 of 3

4 PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price +5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20%upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -20% Reduce 4-5% to -20% downside from the current price <-20% Sell 5 >20%downside from the current price We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd ( Phillip Securities ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. 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5 Contact Information (Regional Member Companies) SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Raffles City Tower 250, North Bridge Road #06-00 Singapore Tel : (65) Fax : (65) Website: HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Exchange Participant of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) Fax (852) Websites: INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A Jakarta Indonesia Tel (62-21) Fax (62-21) Website: THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok Thailand Tel (66-2) / Fax (66-2) Website UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Capital Limited 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44-20) Fax (44-20) Website: MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block B Level 3 Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, Kuala Lumpur Tel (603) Fax (603) Website: JAPAN PhillipCapital Japan K.K. Nagata-cho Bldg., 8F, Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo Tel (81-3) Fax (81-3) Website: CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd No 550 Yan An East Road, Ocean Tower Unit 2318, Postal code Tel (86-21) Fax (86-21) Website: FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Limited 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance Paris France Tel (33-1) Fax (33-1) Website: UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL USA Tel Fax AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 37, 530 Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel (613) Fax (613) Website: 5 of 5

濟川藥業 (600566 CH) 公司研報外延並購豐富產品線濟川藥業於 2014 年底收購東科製藥 70% 股權, 該公司擁有全國獨家品種 7 個獨家劑型 5 個, 主要產品婦炎舒膠囊甘海胃康

濟川藥業 (600566 CH) 公司研報外延並購豐富產品線濟川藥業於 2014 年底收購東科製藥 70% 股權, 該公司擁有全國獨家品種 7 個獨家劑型 5 個, 主要產品婦炎舒膠囊甘海胃康機構股票研究濟川藥業 (600566.CH) 兒童藥市場將支撐高速增長中國醫藥公司研報 19 August,2016 上半年業績大幅增長 2016 年上半年實現營收 23.5 億元, 同比增長 25.7%, 扣非後歸母淨利潤 4.2 億元, 同比增長 37.8%, 基本每股收