TC-SH-COR-AC_753_HK_-new

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "TC-SH-COR-AC_753_HK_-new"

息辰虞
7 years ago
Views:

1 需求改善有望带来估值改善有望带来估值修正机会 Bloomberg Reuters POEMS 753.HK 753.HK 753.HK 行业 : 航空运输更新报告评级 : 增持收市价 : 5.16HKD 目标价 : 5.83 HKD 公司概要中国国航是中国三大航空公司之一, 以及星空联盟成员, 于 2004 年 12 月在香港上市该公司的主要基地位于北京, 截止到 2012 年 12 月 31 日, 国航 ( 含控股公司 ) 共拥有以波音空客为主的各型飞机 461 架投资概要七月国内需求低于预期 : 中国国航 7 月旅客周转量 (RPK) 国内航线同比仅增长 4.7%, 增幅明显缩窄, 环比更是下滑近 5 个百分点, 主要由于国内宏观经济环境不佳情况下商务客流明显减少, 再加上天气原因取消了部分航班因对旺季寄予较高期望, 国航国内航线 7 月客运运力 (ASK) 同比增长 8.7%, 远超需求增速, 客座率受拖累同比大幅下滑 3.1 个百分点至 81.4%, 票价亦出现大幅下滑国际航线旺季成色明显 : 国航 7 月份国际航线需求和供给均按年弹 15.5%, 反映居民出境游需求火爆运营效率方面明显好于国内航线, 客座率基本持平, 为 83.5%, 特别欧洲航线由于去年低基数影响, 恢复强劲国航欧美航线占比较高, 一定程度上抵销了国内航线需求不足带来的负面影响货运方面 : 由于外贸低迷, 国航 7 月货运周转量同比下降, 环比则有所上升, 运输量同比环比均小幅下降货运运力投入同比上升 1.1%, 为三大航中增幅最小的货运载运率为 59.4%, 同比下降 1.5 个百分点八月需求出现好转迹象 : 因天气情况好转,7 月延迟的散客游在 8 月份逐步释放,8 月至今国内航线景气度回暖, 需求增速及客座率明显回升, 票价水平虽下跌但跌幅收窄国航拥有占比最多的国际航线及商务客流, 且公司运力增长在三大航中最为谨慎, 因而具有最大业绩向上弹性预计下半年半年面临更多挑战 : 上半年票价水平明显下降严重削弱了航空公司的盈利能力, 所幸有人民币升值及油价下调等利好因素支撑, 预计上半年国航仍能实现账面盈利 7 月开始航油成本有上涨趋势, 人民币汇率则出现回调压力因此, 尽管 8,9,10 月行业旺季和国际航线高景气度值得期待, 下半年航企仍面临更多挑战估值 : 预计公司 2013,2014 年的每股盈利分别为人民币和元, 折合港币 HK$0.486,HK$0.63 整体思路上, 基于行業基本面有望將迎來阶段性改善和航空股目前较低的估值, 航空股短期存在估值修复机会, 因而给予公司 12 个月目标价为 5.83 港元, 对应 2013/2014 年预期市盈率 12/9.2 倍和预期市净率 1.07/0.83 倍, 增持评级 Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Phillip Securities Research 中國國航 Rating 2.00 增持 - Previous Rating 2.00 增持 Target Price (HKD) Previous Target Price (HKD) 6.65 Closing Price (HKD) 5.16 Expected Capital Gains (%) 13. Expected Dividend Yield (%) 1.4% Expected Total Return (%) 14.4% Raw Beta (Past 2yrs w eekly data) 1.16 Market Cap. (HKD bn) 65,979 Enterprise Value (HKD mn) 119, w eek range (HKD) Closing Price in 52 w eek range Key Financial Summary FYE 12/11 12/12 12/13F 12/14F Revenue (RMB mn) 98, , , ,385 Net Profit, adj. (RMB mn) 7,082 4,637 4,661 6,023 EPS, adj. (RMB) P/E (X),adj BVPS (RMB) P/B (X) DPS (RMB) Div. Yield (%) 2.8% 1.4% 1.6% 2.1% Source: Bloomberg, PSR est. *All multiples & yields based on current market price Valuation Method PE & PB Analyst 22- Zhang Jing zhangjing@phillip.com.cn Oct Dec Apr Jun Volume, mn 753 hk equity HSI 22-Aug of 1

2 七月国内需求低于预期中国国航 7 月旅客周转量 (RPK) 国内航线同比仅增长 4.7%, 增幅明显缩窄, 环比更是下滑近 5 个百分点, 主要由于国内宏观经济环境不佳情况下商务客流明显减少, 再加上天气原因取消了部分航班因对旺季寄予较高期望, 国航国内航线 7 月客运运力 (ASK) 同比增长 8.7%, 远超需求增速, 客座率受拖累同比大幅下滑 3.1 个百分点至 81.4%, 票价亦出现大幅下滑 Fig 1. RPK growth of AC 35% 3 25% 15% 国际航线旺季成色明显国航 7 月份国际航线需求和供给均按年弹 15.5%, 反映居民出境游需求火爆运营效率方面明显好于国内航线, 客座率基本持平, 为 83.5%, 特别欧洲航线由于去年低基数影响, 恢复强劲国航欧美航线占比较高, 一定程度上抵销了国内航线需求不足带来的负面影响 Fig 4. Passenger Load Factor Comparison AC CEA CSA 5% -5% 65 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Fig 2. ASK growth of AC 25% 15% 5% -5% Apr-12 Jun-12 Fig 3. Passenger Load Factor of AC Oct-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Jun-13 domestic international regional Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 2 of 2 货运方面由于外贸低迷, 国航 7 月货运周转量同比下降, 环比则有所上升, 运输量同比环比均小幅下降货运运力投入同比上升 1.1%, 为三大航中增幅最小的货运载运率为 59.4%, 同比下降 1.5 个百分点 Fig 5. RFTK growth of AC Apr-12 Jun-12 Fig 6. AFTK growth of AC Oct-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Jun-13 Apr-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Jun-13

3 八月需求出现好转迹象因天气情况好转,7 月延迟的散客游在 8 月份逐步释放,8 月至今国内航线景气度回暖, 需求增速及客座率明显回升, 票价水平虽下跌但跌幅收窄国航拥有占比最多的国际航线及商务客流, 且公司运力增长在三大航中最为谨慎, 因而具有最大业绩向上弹性预计下半年面临更多挑战上半年票价水平明显下降严重削弱了航空公司的盈利能力, 所幸有人民币升值及油价下调等利好因素支撑, 预计上半年国航仍能实现账面盈利 7 月开始航油成本有上涨趋势, 人民币汇率则出现回调压力因此, 尽管 8,9,10 月行业旺季和国际航线高景气度值得期待, 下半年航企仍面临更多挑战 Fig 7. P/E Band Fig 9. Peer Comparison Mark Est Est P/E BEst EV/BEst ROA LF ROE Ticker Name Cap P/E (Y+1) EBITDA P/B % % HKD, Mil 753 HK AC HK CATHAY HK CEA HK CSA LHA GR LUFTHANSA AF FP AIR FRANCE N/A RYA ID RYANAIR IAG LN INTL CONSOLIDA EZJ LN EASYJET JP ANA KS KOREAN AIR N/A SIA SP SIA DAL US DELTA N/A 3.9 N/A UAL US UC LUV US SOUTHWEST Average Data Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities -0.1 Data Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Fig 8. P/B Band 风险因素经济衰退深化导致航空需求大幅下降 ; 油价飙升 ; 人民币大幅贬值导致汇兑损失 ; 行业内发生非理性价格战 ; 战争恐怖事件流行性疾病等突发事件 ; 高铁的冲击 Data Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities 估值预计公司 2013,2014 年的每股盈利分别为人民币和元, 折合港币 HK$0.486,HK$0.63 整体思路上, 基于行業基本面有望將迎來阶段性改善和航空股目前较低的估值, 航空股短期存在估值修复机会, 因而给予公司 12 个月目标价为 5.83 港元, 对应 2013/2014 年预期市盈率 12/9.2 倍和预期市净率 1.07/0.83 倍, 增持评级 3 of 3

4 FYE DEC FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13F FY14F Valuation Ratios P/E (X), adj P/B (X) Dividend Yield (%) 2.9% 2.8% 1.4% 1.6% 2.1% Per share data (RMB) EPS, reported EPS, adj DPS BVPS Growth & Margins (%) Grow th Revenue 60.5% 19.3% 2.5% 7.6% 10. EBIT 133.5% % -4.7% 35.4% Net Income, adj % % 0.5% 29.2% Margins EBIT margin 17.3% 7.7% 8.5% 7.6% 9.3% Net Profit Margin 14.6% 7.2% 4.6% 4.3% 5. Key Ratios ROE (%) 36.74% 16.18% 9.68% 9.23% 11.29% Income Statement (RMB mn) Revenue 82,488 98, , , ,385 Operating expenses (71,560) (92,151) (92,629) (101,063) (109,371) -Jet fuel cost (24,096) (34,703) (35,638) (37,028) (39,006) Profit from operations 10,928 6,259 8,209 7,434 10,014 Financial costs 531 1,767 (2,036) (2,098) (2,681) Share of profits and losses of associates 3,375 1, ,093 Profit before tax 14,834 9,355 6,576 6,108 8,426 Tax (2,498) (2,292) (1,648) (1,527) (2,106) Profit for the period 12,336 7,063 4,928 4,581 6,319 Minority interests 331 (20) 291 (80) 296 Net profit 12,005 7,082 4,637 4,661 6,023 Source: PSR 4 of 4

5 Ratings History Market Price Target Price Source: Bloomberg, PSR Nov-08 Aug-08 May-08 Aug-09 May-09 Feb-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Nov-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Aug-13 PSR Rating System Total Returns Recommendation Rating > + Buy 1 +5% to + Accumulate 2-5% to +5% Neutral 3-5% to - Reduce 4 <- Sell 5 Remarks We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk rew ard profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation 5 of 5

6 吉利汽车 (175.HK) PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+ Buy 1 > upside from the current price +5% to + Accumulate 2 +5% to +upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to - Reduce 4-5% to - downside from the current price <- Sell 5 >downside from the current price We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd ( Phillip Securities ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the Research ) contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. Phillip Securities has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this publication is subject to change, and Phillip Securities shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip Securities be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. This publication should not be relied upon as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this publication has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any product described in this material is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products which may be described in this publication involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made unless all such risks are understood and an independent determination has been made that such transactions would be appropriate. Any discussion of the risks contained herein with respect to any product should not be considered to be a disclosure of all risks or a complete discussion of such risks. Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in this research should take into account existing public information, including any registered prospectus in respect of such security. Disclosure of Interest Analyst Disclosure: Neither the analyst(s) preparing this report nor his associate has any financial interest in or serves as an officer of the listed corporation covered in this report. Firm s Disclosure: Phillip Securities does not have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation covered in this report nor any financial interest of 1% or more of the market capitalization in the listed corporation. In addition, no executive staff of Phillip Securities serves as an officer of the listed corporation. Availability The information, tools and material presented herein are not directed, intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to the applicable law or regulation or which would subject Phillip Securities to any registration or licensing or other requirement, or penalty for contravention of such requirements within such jurisdiction. Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ( PSHK ) believed to be accurate. PSHK does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. PSHK (or its affiliates or employees) may have positions in relevant investment products. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited 6 of 6

7 香港交易所上市號碼 753.HK 輝立證券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司研究部联络资料 ( 各地区成员公司 ) 新加坡 SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Raffles City Tower 250, North Bridge Road #06-00 Singapore 电话 : (65) 传真 : (65) 网页 : 香港 HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Exchange Participant of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong 电话 : (852) 传真 : (852) 网页 : 印尼 INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A Jakarta Indonesia 电话 : (62-21) 传真 : (62-21) 网页 : 泰国 THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok Thailand 电话 : (66-2) / 传真 : (66-2) 网页 : 英国 UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Capital Limited 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6AS 电话 : (44-20) 传真 : (44-20) 网页 : 马来西亚 MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block B Level 3 Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, Kuala Lumpur 电话 : (603) 传真 : (603) 网页 : 日本 JAPAN PhillipCapital Japan K.K. Nagata-cho Bldg., 8F, Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 电话 : (81-3) 传真 : (81-3) 网页 : 中国 CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd No 550 Yan An East Road, Ocean Tower Unit 2318, Postal code 电话 : (86-21) 传真 : (86-21) 网页 : 法国 FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Limited 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance Paris France 电话 : (33-1) 传真 : (33-1) 网页 : 美国 UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL USA 电话 : 传真 : 澳洲 AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 37, 530 Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia 电话 : (613) 传真 : (613) 网页 : 7 of 7

TC-SH-COR-CEA_670_HK_-new

TC-SH-COR-CEA_670_HK_-new 東方航空 (670.HK) 公司年報點評 Bloomberg Reuters POEMS 670.HK 670.HK 670.HK 行業 : 航空運輸末期業績回顧評級 : 增持收市價 :3.29HKD 目標價 :3.73HKD 公司概要東方航空是中國三大航空集團之一以及天合聯盟成員, 目前經