TC-SH-COR-6030HK-The profitability is better than ¡K

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1 盈利能力優于同業 Bloomberg Reuters POEMS 63.HK 63.HK 63.HK 行業 : 金融 212 年盈利大幅下降未來兩年增長明顯評級 : 增持收市價 : HK$19.52 目標價 : HK$22.3 公司簡介中信證券于 1995 年在北京成立, 其母公司中信集團是中國最大的綜合性金融集團之一 23 年 7 月中信證券在上海上市, 幷在 211 年 1 月成功登陸香港 H 股截止 212 年末, 按總資産及淨資本計算, 中信證券是中國內地規模最大的證券公司, 其在若干領域保持領先地位其中, 公司的經濟業務基金交易額股票機債券承銷市場份額以及受托管理資産規模位居行業前列摘要根據中信證券 ( 以下或簡稱集團 ) 公布的 212 年的業績看, 由于不再將華夏基金的收入納入報表, 以及市場低迷環境的影響, 集團的各項收入較 211 年同期均出現大幅度下降, 降幅超出我們此前預期 ; 總體看集團的歸屬于母公司股東的淨利潤同比大幅下降 66.17% 至人民幣億元, 折合每股收益人民幣.39 元我們認爲利潤下降的主要原因是當期傭金收入及投資收益的大幅下降所致 ; 不過期內中信證券的資産規模保持强勁增長, 總資産較 211 年末大幅上升 13.65% 至人民幣 1, 億元歸屬于母公司權益的淨資産達人民幣億元, 折合每股淨資産達人民幣 7.85 元, 基本與 211 年持平, 這主要是因爲總股本的增加攤薄了每股淨資産的價值 ; 總體看中信證券仍保持業內領先地位, 截止 212 年末集團在多個業務領域仍居行業第一, 包括股票承銷債券承銷以及融資融券 ; 進入 213 年以來中信證券陸續發行債券融資, 截止目前公布的融資計劃規模達人民幣 45 億元募集資金將用于發展公司的創新業務, 以及參與更多的投資及收購 ; 考慮到中信證券仍擁有明顯的行業競爭優勢, 同時 213 年整體市場環境將好于 212 年, 以及近期有消息稱監管層將進一步放寬政策, 允許在內地生活的港澳臺居民投資 A 股, 這將對證券市場包括證券公司的未來發展注入新的動力因此我們對內地券商未來兩年的表現抱有信心, 上調其 12 個月目標價至 22.3 港元, 較最新收盤價高出約 14.24%, 相當于 213 年市盈率 37. 倍及市淨率 2.1 倍維持增持評級傭金收入占比有所企穩由于 212 年中國資本市場環境的持續低迷, 中信證券的傭金收入明顯降低同時 212 年開始華夏基金的利潤將不再幷入報表, 也是集團利潤大幅下降的主要原因之一截止 212 年第 3 季度末, 中信證券的手續費及傭金淨收入下降了 32.19% 至人民幣億元我們預計由于受到 212 年第 4 季度 A 股市場出現强勁反彈的影響, 中信證券的傭金收入將有所回升 212 年全年傭金收入的占總收入比將較 211 年有所增加, 但投資收益的占比將出現小幅回落 Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd 研究分析員陳星宇 chenxingyu@phillip.com.cn Phillip Securities Research Rating 2. Accumulate - Previous Rating 2. Accumulate Target Price (HKD) Previous Target Price (HKD) 18.1 Closing Price (HKD) Expected Capital Gains (%) 14.2% Expected Dividend Yield (%) 1.1% Expected Total Return (%) 15.3% Raw Beta (Past 2yrs w eekly data) N/A Market Cap. (HKD bn) 191,7 Enterprise Value (HKD mn) N/A 52 w eek range (HKD) Closing Price in 52 w eek range Key Financial Summary FYE 12/11 12/12F 12/13F 12/14F Total income (RMB mn) 26,371 11,967 13,374 15,358 Net Profit, adj. (RMB mn) 12,576 4,255 5,329 6,66 EPS, adj. (RMB) P/E (X) BVPS (RMB) P/B (X) DPS (RMB) Div. Yield 2.7%.9% 1.1% 1.3% Source: Bloomberg, PSR est. *All multiples & yields based on current market price Valuation Method PB Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep-12 % 5% 1% 12-Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb-13 Volume, mn 63 hk equity HSI of 1

2 圖 1. 中信證券主要業務收入占總收入比 Portion (%) Commission fee Interest income Investment income Other income 圖年末部分中國內地券商收入及盈利能力對比 Profit (RMB Mil) 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Operating income Net profit Net margin (Right) ROE (Right) Ratio 4.% 35.% 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.% 1.% E CITIC Haitong GF Guosen Huatai Everbright Hongyuan Industrial Guoyuan 資料來源 : 公司資料, Phillip Securities 資料來源 : 公司資料, Phillip Securities 業務發展穩健規模優勢明顯總體看, 中信證券的規模優勢仍然明顯截止 212 年末, 中信證券在多個業務領域仍保持行業第一的優勢地位其中, 股票及債券承銷的市場份額分別爲 12.3% 及 11.6%, 排名行業第一融資融券的市場份額約爲 8.6%, 仍處于行業龍頭地位截止目前, 中信證券已經獲得了所有創新業務的牌照, 我們相信憑藉其明顯的規模優勢, 及完善的業務架構, 中信證券的發展在未來仍將擁有明顯的競爭優勢圖年末中信證券主要業務市場份額 Market share (%) Securities underwriting Bond underwriting 資料來源 : 公司資料, Phillip Securities Market share Financing margin Colleciton scale Brokerage 業績表現優于同業盈利能力突出由于受市場低迷以及華夏基金剝離的影響, 中信證券的利潤收入在 212 年下滑明顯, 但總體看其業績表現仍優于其主要競爭對手截止 212 年末, 根據已經公布業績的部分券商的數據看, 中信證券的利潤仍穩居行業第一, 其營業總收入是唯一一家突破人民幣 1 億元大關的證券公司, 同時歸屬于母公司的淨利潤達人民幣億元, 淨利潤率爲 36.38%, 遠高于行業平均水平可以看出, 即使在淨利潤同比大幅下降近 66% 的情况下, 中信證券仍能維持高達 3% 以上的淨利潤率, 說明公司在成本控制及盈利增長方面相對于競爭對手仍具備明顯的優勢我們預計在市場持續向好, 以及更多業務推出的背景下, 中信證券未來兩年的盈利增速將明顯提高風險手續費及傭金收入下降超預期 ; 投資收益大幅下滑 ; 股價受市場環境影響明顯下降表 1. 同業比較 Code Name ROA LF (%) ROE LF (%) P/B (x) P/E (x) YTD (%) 1788 HK Equity GUOTAI JUNAN HK Equity SUN HUNG KAI CO HK Equity FAR EAST HORIZON HK Equity CHINA EVER LTD CH Equity CITIC SECURITI-A CH Equity HAITONG SECURI-A CH Equity INDUSTRIAL-A CH Equity HONG YUAN SEC-A CH Equity FOUNDER SECURI-A CH Equity EVERBRIG SEC -A CH Equity HUATAI SECURIT-A CH Equity CHINA MERCHANT-A CH Equity GF SECURITIES-A CH Equity SINOLINK SECUR-A CH Equity GUOYUAN SECURI-A CH Equity SOUTHWEST SECU-A CH Equity CHANGJIANG SEC-A CH Equity WESTERN SECURI-A CH Equity SOOCHOW SECURI-A CH Equity NORTHEAST SECU-A CH Equity SHANXI SECURIT-A CH Equity PACIFIC SECURI-A CH Equity LESHI INTERNET-A CH Equity ANXIN TRUST & I CH Equity SHAANXI INTL-A CH Equity SHANG AJ CORP-A 資料來源 : Bloomberg, Phillip Securities 2 of 2

3 Financial Status FYE FY1 FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Valuation Ratios P/E (X) P/B (X) Dividend Payout ratio 43.97% 34.85% 35.% 35.% 35.% Dividend Yield 3.2% 2.7%.9% 1.1% 1.3% Per share data (RMB) EPS, reported EPS, adj DPS BVPS Grow th Revenue 26.9% -12.9% -54.6% 11.8% 14.8% Operating profit 23.5% -1.3% -62.3% 24.% 23.% Profit before tax 22.7% -7.9% -63.3% 24.% 23.% Net Income, adj. 25.9% 11.2% -66.2% 25.2% 24.% Key Ratios ROE 16.6% 15.7% 4.92% 5.81% 6.73% Income Statement (RMB mn) FY1 FY11 FY12F FY13F FY14F Fee and commission income 16,598 9,713 4,662 5,175 5,951 Interest income 1,988 2,56 1,234 1,332 1,492 Investment income 11,51 14,393 5,757 6,56 7,481 Others Revenue 3,281 26,371 11,967 13,374 15,358 Business and management expenses 9,646 6,912 4,827 5,161 5,563 Business tax and surcharges Other operating expenses 3,36 2,843 1,279 1,87 1,19 Impairment losses 18 1, Total operating expenses 13,986 11,756 6,457 6,542 6,952 Operating profit 16,295 14,615 5,51 6,832 8,45 Profit before tax 16,319 15,31 5,51 6,832 8,45 Income tax (4,184) (2,427) (1,194) (1,433) (1,719) Income tax rate 25.64% 16.15% 21.67% 2.97% 2.46% Profit for the year 12,135 12,64 4,316 5,399 6,686 Minority interest Net profit 11,31 12,576 4,255 5,329 6,66 Source: PSR Source: Company, PSR 3 of 3

4 Ratings History Market Price Target Price Source: Bloomberg, PSR Jan-13 Oct-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Jan PSR Rating System Total Returns Recommendation Rating > +2% Buy 1 +5% to +2% Accumulate 2-5% to +5% Neutral 3-5% to -2% Reduce 4 <-2% Sell 5 Remarks We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk rew ard profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation 4 of 4

5 PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+2% Buy 1 >2% upside from the current price +5% to +2% Accumulate 2 +5% to +2%upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -2% Reduce 4-5% to -2% downside from the current price <-2% Sell 5 >2%downside from the current price We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk rewa sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd ( Phillip Securities ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. 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6 Contact Information (Regional Member Companies) SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Raffles City Tower 25, North Bridge Road #6- Singapore Tel : (65) Fax : (65) Website: HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Exchange Participant of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) Fax (852) Websites: INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A Jakarta 122 Indonesia Tel (62-21) 5798 Fax (62-21) Website: THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 15 Thailand Tel (66-2) / Fax (66-2) Website UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Capital Limited 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 12 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44-2) Fax (44-2) Website: MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block B Level 3 Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 545 Kuala Lumpur Tel (63) Fax (63) Website: JAPAN PhillipCapital Japan K.K. Nagata-cho Bldg., 8F, Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 1-14 Tel (81-3) Fax (81-3) Website: CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd No 55 Yan An East Road, Ocean Tower Unit 2318, Postal code 21 Tel (86-21) Fax (86-21) Website: FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Limited 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance 758 Paris France Tel (33-1) Fax (33-1) Website: UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 35 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL 664 USA Tel Fax AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 37, 53 Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3, Australia Tel (613) Fax (613) Website: 6 of 6

TC-SH-COR-CEA_670_HK_-new

TC-SH-COR-CEA_670_HK_-new 東方航空 (670.HK) 公司年報點評 Bloomberg Reuters POEMS 670.HK 670.HK 670.HK 行業 : 航空運輸末期業績回顧評級 : 增持收市價 :3.29HKD 目標價 :3.73HKD 公司概要東方航空是中國三大航空集團之一以及天合聯盟成員, 目前經