TC-SH-COR-Weichai_2338_HK_-new

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1 濰柴動力 (2338.HK) 轉型正式起步香港汽車製造跟蹤報告評級 : 增持第三季收入同比增長 77.5% 至億元, 歸屬母公司淨溢利 6.8 億, 同比上升 9.8% 對應每股收益 0.34 元, 去年同期為 0.31 元前兩個季收入同比增幅分別為 26.5% 和 -1.6%, 歸屬母公司淨溢利增幅分別是 29.7% 和 113%, 對應每股收益分別為 0.53 和 1.36 元第二季盈利大增主要源自凱傲並錶帶來的一次性投資收益 16.7 億, 第三季收入大增主要是由於凱傲在本季開始並表首三季收入同比升接近三成, 至億元歸屬母公司淨溢利億, 同比增長 64%, 每股收益為 2.22, 去年同期為 1.35 若剔除凱傲並表所帶來的一次性投資收益影響, 首三季淨利潤大約為億, 同比增長 16.7%, 對應每股收益 1.58 元, 同比增 17% 濰柴前三季度的整體毛利率提升 0.74 個百分點至 20.93%, 前三季度的單季毛利率分別為 21.4%, 19.5%,21.7% 但另一方面費用率也隨之上升不過, 本部的重卡發動機銷量也出現下滑, 盈利能力出現滑坡儘管本部的收入仍保持微幅增長, 但毛利率明顯惡化, 第三季本部的毛利率從以往的 30% 左右大幅下降至 20% 左右雖然同期公司已嚴格控制費用支出, 第三季本部的利潤仍同比減少 21% 今年 11 月濰柴旗下的林德液壓濰坊工廠建設項目正式啟動, 標誌著高端液壓國產化項目正式落地受益于中國高端裝備製造業進口替代的升級趨勢, 我們看好林德液壓投產後對公司的盈利貢獻我們預計公司 2014/2015/2016 年每股收益將分別達到 2.7,2.33 和 2.84 元人民幣上調目標價至 35 港元, 對應 2014/2015/2016 年 10.2/11.8/9.7 倍市盈率, 及 1.7/1.6/1.3 倍市淨率, 上調評級至增持 Key Financial Summary FYE 12/13 12/14F 12/15F 12/16F Revenue (RMB mn) 58,312 70,276 77,131 84,706 Net Profit, adj. (RMB mn) 3,571 5,406 4,663 5,671 EPS, adj. (RMB) P/E (X),adj BVPS (RMB) P/B (X) DPS (HKD) Div. Yield (%) 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% Source: Bloomberg, PSR est. *All multiples & yields based on current market price Target Price (HKD) Forecast Dividend (HKD) Closing Price (HKD) Potential Return 上調至增持 Company Description Weichai Pow er is a leading manufacturer of diesel engines (contributes 80%+ profit), w hich are w idely applicable to heavy-duty vehicles, coaches, construction machines, vessels and pow er generator. It also holds a 51% stake in Shaanxi Heavy-Duty Auto and Shaanxi Fast Gear, w hich are leading producers in their segments. Raw Beta (Past 2yrs w eekly data) 1.29 Market Cap. (HKD bn) 64,127 Enterprise Value (HKD mn) 73, w eek range (HKD) Closing Price in 52 w eek range Dec-13 Major Shareholders 1.HKSCC Nominees Limited 24.22% 2.JPMorgan Chase & Co % 3.Weichai Group Holdings Limited 16.83% Valuation Method PE & PB 12-Jan-14 研究员章晶 zhangjing@phillip.com.cn Feb Mar Apr May Jun % 0% 50% 100% 12-Jul Aug Sep Oct-14 Volume, mn 2338 hk equity HSI 12-Nov Dec Page 1

2 三季度業績回顧濰柴動力第三季度業績穩步成長, 營業收入同比增長 77.5% 至億元 ( 人民幣, 下同 ), 歸屬母公司淨溢利 6.8 億, 同比上升 9.8% 對應每股收益 0.34 元, 去年同期為 0.31 元今年前兩個季度濰柴的營業收入同比增幅分別為 26.5% 和 -1.6%, 歸屬母公司淨溢利增幅分別是 29.7% 和 113%, 對應每股收益分別為 0.53 和 1.36 元第二季度盈利大增主要源自凱傲並錶帶來的一次性投資收益 16.7 億, 第三季度收入大增主要是由於凱傲在本季開始並表 Fig 1. Weichai s net profit by Quarters (RMB mil) Source: Company, PSR Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 首三季營業收入同比升接近三成, 至億元歸屬母公司淨溢利億, 同比增長 64%, 每股收益為 2.22, 去年同期為 1.35 若剔除凱傲並表所帶來的一次性投資收益影響, 首三季淨利潤大約為億, 同比增長 16.7%, 對應每股收益 1.58 元, 同比增 17% 整體毛利率增長, 但費用率上升受益於凱傲並表和排放標準升級所帶來的重卡產品結構升級, 濰柴前三季度的整體毛利率提升 0.74 個百分點至 20.93%, 從第三季度的情況來看, 整體毛利率的改善非常明顯, 前三季度的單季毛利率分別為 21.4%,19.5%,21.7% 但另一方面費用率也隨之上升, 前三季的銷售 + 管理費用同比增加了 43.5% 或 21 億, 兩者之和占總收入的比重也上升了 1.2 個百分點 Fig 2. Weichai s gross margin and operation margin 25.00% gm opm 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 Source: Company, PSR Page 2

3 本部的發動機業務盈利能力承壓不過, 在國內重卡行業受累疲軟的宏觀經濟而持續下行的大背景下, 本部的重卡發動機銷量也出現下滑, 盈利能力表現不容樂觀儘管本部的收入仍保持微幅增長, 但毛利率明顯惡化, 第三季度本部的毛利率從以往的 30% 左右大幅下降至 20% 左右雖然同期公司已嚴格控制費用支出, 第三季本部的利潤仍同比減少 21% 林德液壓項目投產 : 轉型正式起步今年 11 月濰柴旗下的林德液壓濰坊工廠建設項目正式啟動, 標誌著高端液壓國產化項目正式落地, 將改變中國高端液壓產品長期依賴進口的狀況項目預計將在明年五月底投產, 項目一期產能 8000 台,2018 年預計產能 8 萬台受益于中國高端裝備製造業進口替代的升級趨勢, 我們看好林德液壓投產後對公司的盈利貢獻估值與評級基於以上的分析, 我們預計公司 2014/2015/2016 年每股收益將分別達到 2.7, 2.33 和 2.84 元人民幣上調目標價至 35 港元, 對應 2014/2015/2016 年 10.2/11.8/9.7 倍市盈率, 及 1.7/1.6/1.3 倍市淨率, 上調評級至增持 Fig 3. Peer s comparison Name Ticker Mkt Cap (HKD) BEst P/B BEst BEst P/B:2 P/E:1F FY Y BEst Curr P/E:2F EV/BEst Y EBITDA P/B ROA LF ROE Dvd Yld OPM LF GM LF PM LF WEICHAI POWER C2338 HK ZOOMLION HEAVY 1157 HK SINOTRUK HONG K3808 HK SANY HEAVY EQU631 HK VOLVO AB-B SHS VOLVB N/A MAN SE MAN GR N/A KION GROUP AG KGX GR N/A KUBOTA CORP 6326 JP N/A HINO MOTORS LTD7205 JP N/A HITACHI CONSTRUC6305 JP N/A DAEWOO SHIPBUIL N/A HYUNDAI MIPO DO N/A 29.6 N/A 0.7 (7.3) (28.3) N/A (64.3) (53.5) (44.1) CATERPILLAR INC CAT US N/A CUMMINS INC CMI US WABCO HOLDINGSWBC US ALLISON TRANSMISALSN US CHINA YUCHAI INTLCYD US Source: Bloomberg, PSR 3.8 風險因素經濟復蘇的不穩定性影響重卡需求回穩, 重卡發動機齒輪箱業務面臨外來的競爭, 未來對於旗下企業的整合過程中可能出現業績的波動, 原材料價格及人工成本上升侵蝕盈利, 國四標準升級實施不達預期 Page 3

4 FYE DEC FY12 FY13 FY14F FY15F FY16F Valuation Ratios P/E (X), adj P/B (X) Dividend Yield (%) 1.3% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% Dividend payout ratio (%) 22.1% 14.0% 13.7% 21.4% 22.9% Per share data (RMB) EPS, reported EPS, adj DPS BVPS Grow th & Margins (%) Grow th Revenue -19.8% 21.1% 20.5% 9.8% 9.8% EBIT -47.0% 22.2% 67.2% -19.4% 20.1% Net Income, adj % 19.4% 51.4% -13.7% 21.6% Margins Gross Margin 19.1% 20.2% 20.2% 20.2% 20.8% EBIT margin 8.2% 8.3% 11.5% 8.4% 9.2% Net Profit Margin 6.2% 6.1% 7.7% 6.0% 6.7% Key Ratios ROE (%) 13.54% 14.52% 19.2% 14.9% 16.0% ROA (%) 4.7% 4.9% 6.4% 5.0% 5.7% Income Statement (RMB mn) Revenue 48,165 58,312 70,276 77,131 84,706 Gross profit 9,203 11,751 14,161 15,557 17,619 Operating profit 3,777 5,045 7,839 6,746 8,148 EBIT 3,949 4,825 8,070 6,506 7,813 Profit before tax 3,959 4,609 7,632 6,523 7,877 Tax (726) (791) (1,832) (1,500) (1,772) Profit for the period 3,234 3,818 5,800 5,023 6,105 Minority interests (243) (247) (394) (360) (433) Total capital share 1,999 1,999 1,999 1,999 1,999 Net profit 2,991 3,571 5,406 4,663 5,671 Source: PSR Page 4

5 Ratings History Market Price Target Price Source: Bloomberg, PSR Aug-14 Dec-13 Apr-13 Aug-12 Dec-11 Apr-11 Aug-10 Dec-09 Apr-09 Aug PSR Rating System Total Returns Recommendation Rating > +20% Buy 1 +5% to +20% Accumulate 2-5% to +5% Neutral 3-5% to -20% Reduce 4 <-20% Sell 5 Remarks We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk rew ard profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation Page 5

6 PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price +5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20%upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -20% Reduce 4-5% to -20% downside from the current price <-20% Sell 5 >20%downside from the current price We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd ( Phillip Securities ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. 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7 Contact Information (Regional Member Companies) SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Raffles City Tower 250, North Bridge Road #06-00 Singapore Tel : (65) Fax : (65) Website: HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Exchange Participant of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) Fax (852) Websites: INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A Jakarta Indonesia Tel (62-21) Fax (62-21) Website: THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok Thailand Tel (66-2) / Fax (66-2) Website UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Capital Limited 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44-20) Fax (44-20) Website: MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block B Level 3 Megan Avenue II, Number 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, Kuala Lumpur Tel (603) Fax (603) Website: JAPAN PhillipCapital Japan K.K. Nagata-cho Bldg., 8F, Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo Tel (81-3) Fax (81-3) Website: CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd No 436 Heng Feng Road, Green Tech Tower Unit 604, Postal code Tel (86-21) Fax (86-21) Website: FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Limited 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance Paris France Tel (33-1) Fax (33-1) Website: UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL USA Tel Fax AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 12, 15 William Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel (613) Fax (613) Website: Page 7

TC-SH-COR-CEA_670_HK_-new

TC-SH-COR-CEA_670_HK_-new 東方航空 (670.HK) 公司年報點評 Bloomberg Reuters POEMS 670.HK 670.HK 670.HK 行業 : 航空運輸末期業績回顧評級 : 增持收市價 :3.29HKD 目標價 :3.73HKD 公司概要東方航空是中國三大航空集團之一以及天合聯盟成員, 目前經