Research Report 3888HK_140820_TC

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灞衩堵
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1 管理層意料之內的盈利率下跌香港軟件服務業公司業績評級 : 中性維持中性評級金山軟件的次季收入恢復增長, 同比及環比分別增加 51% 和 11% 毛利按年增長 47%, 但經營利潤同比下降 22.3% 經營利潤率比上季進一步下降到新低 16.5%, 反映成本和費用不斷增加因為沒有了上個季度的出售收益, 歸屬於母公司之利潤環比大幅下跌 52% 在往後日子, 公司將專注於移動業務, 包括手機遊戲, 安卓 WPS 移動辦公應用, 企業的 WPS 辦公應用軟件和金山雲計算我們維持金山軟件的評級為中性, 並稍微提升目標價至港幣元, 以反映持續增加的現金財務回顧金山軟件昨日宣布, 其 2014 年第二季業績, 總收入按年增長 51%, 環比上升 11% 至人民幣 7.5 億 ( 下同 ) 雖然毛利按年增長 47% 至人民幣 6.34 億, 毛利率與去年同期相比下跌 2.2 個百分點至 84.5% 經營利潤為人民幣 1.24 億, 同比及環比分別減少 22.3% 和 4.8%, 主要是由於不斷增加的研發和銷售費用, 導致息稅前利潤率相較從第一季度的 19.25% 進一步下降至 16.5 %, 為近年最低由於沒有了上一季度的出售資產收入, 歸屬於母公司之利潤為人民幣 1.18 億, 同比和環比大幅下滑 18.7% 和 52% 我們的看法金山的業績數字並不討好, 雖然收入仍然在增長, 但成本和費用以更高的速度增加, 導致利潤率急劇下降管理層解釋說,2014 年是投資和研發的一年, 他們早已預料到利潤率會下降, 預期合計全年的下降幅度大約 10% 20 %, 主要是由於移動業務的沉重研發和推廣費用所致他們認為現在的貢獻將在未來發揮出來, 現時先把發展重點放在幾個方面, 包括獵豹移動, 手機遊戲, 企業的 WPS 移動辦公應用和金山雲計算系統投資建議因第二季度收入恢復增長, 我們因此向上調整各項收入的預期另一方面, 利潤率因成本和費用進一步增加而受到損害, 每股收益將比原先預期下跌雖然管理層致力於發展移動業務, 並對其增長潛力充滿信心, 但我們在看到任何實際的數字之前, 仍然抱持著觀望態度因此, 我們維持金山軟件的評級為中性, 並稍微提升目標價至港幣元, 以反映持續增加的現金目標價相當於 2014 年和 2015 年預測每股市盈率的 29.4 倍和 27.6 倍 Key Financial Summary FYE Dec FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Revenue (RMB mn) 1,411 2,173 3,215 4,180 4,807 Net Profit (RMB mn) EPS (HKD) P/E (X) BVPS (HKD) P/B (X) DPS (HKD) Div. Yield (%) 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% Source: PSR est. *All multiples & yields based on current market price Target Price (HKD) Forecast Dividend (HKD) Closing Price (HKD) Potential Upside Company Description Kingsoft is a leading Internet-based software companies in China. It provides online games, Internet security software, office software and cloud services. Products are mainly sold in the mainland China, but also exported to Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Southeast Asian countries. Company Data Raw Beta (Past 2yrs weekly data) Market Cap. (HKD bn) 28,657 Enterprise Value (HKD mn) 24, week range (HKD) Closing Price in 52 week range Aug-13 Major Shareholders 1. Lei Jun 2. Tencent Holdings 3. Kau Pak Kwan Valuation Method PE Analyst Kay Ng kayng@phillip.com.hk Oct-13 Dec-13 Volume, mn (RHS) HS I (LHS) Feb % 0% 50% 100% Apr HK Equity (LHS) Jun-14 N/A Aug % 12.60% 9.13% Page 1

2 收入正增長, 但成本和費用以更高的速度在上升今年第二季, 網絡遊戲的收入穩定增長, 同比和環比分別增長 13.7% 和 4.3 %, 主要來自其旗艦遊戲劍俠情緣網絡版 III, 佔上半年網絡遊戲總收入的 54 % 的獵豹移動業務收入錄得按年增加 145.7%, 按季增加 20.7%, 而辦公軟件業務如預期般重回增長, 同比和環比分別增加 8.9% 和 1.7% 我們預計遊戲業務的收入增長將在第三和第四季度加快, 因現時有 12 款手機遊戲正在研發中, 當中 4 款將計劃在第三季度進行封閉測試而獵豹移動預計將繼續以遞減速度增長, 另 WPS 辦公軟件的收入預期將谷底回升, 因管理層提到了新一輪的 3 年期政府軟件採購在第二季度已經開始, 他們有信心這次能搶到比以往更大的份額 Table 1 Revenue estimates RMB '000 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E 4Q14E Online games 287, , , , ,068 Cheetah mobile 249, , , , ,760 Office software & others 131,195 87,867 89, ,780 Source: PSR, Company report 118,197 Fig 1 Revenue estimates RMB '000 1,000, , , , , , , , , , Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E 4Q14E Online games Cheetah mobile Office software & others Source: PSR, Company report 然而, 雖然收入增加, 成本和費用亦以更高的速度增加中銷售成本按年及按季分別增加 76% 和 9.1%, 而研發和銷售及分銷開支按年分別上升 63.5% 和 131.6%, 以致經營利潤率顯著下降 Fig 2 Quarterly margins summary % 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 Gross profit margin Operating profit margin Source: Company report Page 2

3 Fig 3 Quarterly costs c as percentage of revenue 35.00% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 Cost to rev R&D to rev S&D to rev Admin to rev Source: Company report 未來亮點對於今年沉重的研發費用, 管理層解釋是由於員工的人數增加, 為了未來業務發展, 集團特地聘請了大量的專業人士和優秀人才, 加入其移動開發團隊在可見將來, 金山將集中在幾個方面發展 : 1. 網絡遊戲仍然是一個主要的收入來源管理層預測,2014 年劍俠情緣網絡版的營收增長將在 16% 到 17% 之間 ; 2. 集團正在開發 12 款手機遊戲, 當中 4 款將計劃在第三季度進行封閉測試另集團亦將積極與騰訊和小米合作, 發行和分銷其手機遊戲 ; 3. 公司已推出了 WPS 移動辦公應用的 Android 版本, 而 WPS 未來的發展將面向更多的企業市場 ; 4. 金山的雲計算尚處於投資階段, 但它將是未來的重點存儲和娛樂平台估值我們向上調整了 2014 年的收入預測, 同時亦上調了成本和費用預測, 使得預期每股收益比原先為低然而, 我們同意管理層重視研發的做法, 未來其業務模式將更多地轉變到移動業務因此, 我們傾向於給予其業務更高的估值, 約港幣元, 相當於 2014 年預測每股收益的 21 倍, 加上手頭上每股淨現金港幣 6.62 元, 目標價小幅上調到港幣元潛在風險移動業務增長未達預期 ; 成本及費用持續增加 ; Page 3

4 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Valuation Ratios P/E (X) P/B (X) EV/EBITDA (X) Dividend Yield (%) 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% Per share data (HKD) EPS DPS BVPS Outstanding Shares (mn) 1, , , , , Growth & Margins (%) Grow th Revenue 38.3% 54.0% 48.0% 30.0% 15.0% EBIT 24.8% 64.7% 8.4% 30.1% 14.9% Margins Gross profit margin 86.8% 86.3% 84.5% 84.5% 84.5% EBITDA margin 29.3% 31.4% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% EBT margin 37.4% 38.0% 31.1% 27.0% 26.8% Net Profit Margin 30.6% 30.9% 25.1% 20.5% 20.5% Income Statement (RMB mn) FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Revenue 1,411 2,173 3,215 4,180 4,807 Cost of revenue (187) (297) (498) (648) (745) Gross profit 1,224 1,876 2,717 3,532 4,062 Selling & Marketing expenses (234) (383) (707) (920) (1,058) Administrative expenses (148) (192) (289) (376) (433) R & D expenses (385) (596) (932) (1,212) (1,394) Other income Other expense (71) (69) (81) (98) (113) Operating profit ,105 Non operating income (expense) Net finance income (expense) Profit Before Tax ,127 1,287 Taxation (61) (71) (94) (120) (139) Profit After Tax ,007 1,148 Minority interest (34) (83) (99) (149) (163) Net Profit EPS Source: Company, PSR Page 4

5 PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks >+20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price +5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20%upside from the current price -5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within ± 5% from the current price -5% to -20% Reduce 4-5% to -20% downside from the current price <-20% Sell 5 >20%downside from the current price We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd ( Phillip Securities ). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. 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6 Contact Information (Regional Member Companies) SINGAPORE Phillip Securities Pte Ltd Raffles City Tower 250, North Bridge Road #06-00 Singapore Tel : (65) Fax : (65) Website: HONG KONG Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd Exchange Participant of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong 11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong Tel (852) Fax (852) Websites: INDONESIA PT Phillip Securities Indonesia ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A Jakarta Indonesia Tel (62-21) Fax (62-21) Website: THAILAND Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd 15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road, Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok Thailand Tel (66-2) / Fax (66-2) Website UNITED KINGDOM King & Shaxson Capital Limited 6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6AS Tel (44-20) Fax (44-20) Website: MALAYSIA Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd B-3-6 Block B Level 3 Megan Avenue II, No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, Kuala Lumpur Tel (603) Fax (603) Website: JAPAN PhillipCapital Japan K.K. Nagata-cho Bldg., 8F, Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo Tel (81-3) Fax (81-3) Website: CHINA Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd No 436 Hengfeng Road, Greentech Unit 604, Postal code Tel (86-21) Fax (86-21) Website: FRANCE King & Shaxson Capital Limited 3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance Paris France Tel (33-1) Fax (33-1) Website: UNITED STATES Phillip Futures Inc 141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050 The Chicago Board of Trade Building Chicago, IL USA Tel Fax AUSTRALIA PhillipCapital Australia Level 12, 15 William Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia Tel (613) Fax (613) Website: Page 6

濟川藥業 (600566 CH) 公司研報外延並購豐富產品線濟川藥業於 2014 年底收購東科製藥 70% 股權, 該公司擁有全國獨家品種 7 個獨家劑型 5 個, 主要產品婦炎舒膠囊甘海胃康

濟川藥業 (600566 CH) 公司研報外延並購豐富產品線濟川藥業於 2014 年底收購東科製藥 70% 股權, 該公司擁有全國獨家品種 7 個獨家劑型 5 個, 主要產品婦炎舒膠囊甘海胃康機構股票研究濟川藥業 (600566.CH) 兒童藥市場將支撐高速增長中國醫藥公司研報 19 August,2016 上半年業績大幅增長 2016 年上半年實現營收 23.5 億元, 同比增長 25.7%, 扣非後歸母淨利潤 4.2 億元, 同比增長 37.8%, 基本每股收