Johansson and Nygren 1991 Zeng Yi et al Monica et al ~

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1 Vol. 38 No. 5 September Population Research * 2 / % 50% Fertility Intention and Fertility Behaviour in Hubei Province under the New Two - child Policy Shi Zhilei Yang Yunyan Abstract Adjustment of the family planning policy provides an opportunity to reexamine fertility intentions of the urban and rural families in China.A survey with a large sample size has been completed about the fertility desires of the second child of the couples in which one side has no siblings under the new two - child policy in Hubei province.survey results show that the proportion definitely wanting a second child is % with the proportion in the rural families being higher than that of the urban families the fertility desire for the second child is decreasing with the increasing of women s age and is also decreasing with the increasing of women s schooling for urban families while increasing for rural families.a half of the families which are allowed to have a second child state they will give up the opportunity because of economic pressure.migration reduces the desire for having the second child and weakens son preference.relative to the structural risk of fertility accumulation ultra - low fertility trap should arouse more concern. Keywords The New Two - child Policy Fertility Intention Desired Fertility Authors Shi Zhilei is Associate Professor School of Public Administration Zhongnan University of Economics and Law. shizhilei2004@ 126. com.yang Yunyan is Professor School of Public Administration Zhongnan University of Economics and Law and is Director Hubei Provincial Health and Family Planning Commission. * 本文系国家社科重大项目完善计划生育利益导向机制研究 ( 项目编号 : 11&ZD038) 和教育部人文社科基金项目计划生育政策对家庭发展能力的影响及家庭发展政策的构建 ( 项目编号 : 12YJC840032) 和湖北省卫计委计划生育研究重点课题单独二孩政策实施后生育状况分析的阶段性研究成果

2 Johansson and Nygren 1991 Zeng Yi et al Monica et al ~ Bongaarts

3 ~ % % 96. 9% 60. 1% 39. 9% 47. 1% 52. 9% 该数据为湖北省在这期间已生育的所有样本数这 4 类家庭有部分重合, 但是总量并未重复计算为了保证可比性, 我们抽查的这 4 类符合政策家庭也是至少一方为独生子女, 后文中我们统一简称为其他 4 类家庭

4 30 38 alpha % % % 1 2 / % % % % 1 1 Figure 1 Distribution of Family Types ~ ~ % % % 1 按照湖北现行计划生育条例, 夫妻双方只要一方为城市户口就实行城市计划生育政策, 这包括夫妻双方均为城市户口和一方为城市户口一方为农村户口两种情况本文将实施城市计划生育政策的家庭称为城市家庭, 实施农村计划生育政策的家庭称为农村家庭

5 31 62. 58% 27. 26 29. 23 2 Figure 2 2 Distribution of Women by Age in the Families Where One of the Parents Has No Siblings 3 9. 49 12. 63 74. 90% 71. 22% 59.

5 % Figure 2 2 Distribution of Women by Age in the Families Where One of the Parents Has No Siblings % % % 80% 3 Figure 3 3 Distribution of Women by Education in the Families Where One of the Parents Has No Siblings % % % % %

6 % % % Figure 4 Sex Ratio at First Parity by Family Types 注 : 农村单独家庭包括符合一孩半政策的家庭 % 3. 73% % % % % % % 13. 3% % 40% 本部分领取生育证相关数据来至于湖北省卫生计生委

7 % 1 二孩生育意愿家庭类型 Table 1 1 Proportions Wishing to Have a Second Child in One Child Families 一孩半家庭双独家庭单独二孩家庭全部样本样本占比样本占比样本占比样本占比 ( 人 ) ( % ) ( 人 ) ( % ) ( 人 ) ( % ) ( 人 ) ( % ) 要二孩不要二孩没想清楚合计 % % 2 2 Table 2 家庭类型 Ideal Number of Children by Family Type 理想子女数 0 个 1 个 2 个 3 个及以上单独家庭城镇家庭双独家庭总体单独家庭城乡家庭双独家庭总体注 : Pearson 卡方 = ,P = ; 理想子女数的均值单独家庭为 1. 71, 双独家庭为 1. 72, 城乡总体为 % 7. 1% % % % 1 这一时期人们并未得到单独夫妇可以生育二孩的政策放松信息 2013 年 7 月份, 国家卫计委李斌主任在多个场合讲话, 强调要长期坚持计划生育基本国策

8 low fertility 1. 5 very low fertility 1. 3 lowest - low fertility 4 3 Table 3 Proportions Wishing to Have a Second Child in One Child Families 二孩生育意愿城市单独家庭居住地 ( % ) 低生育率地区中生育率地区高生育率地区农村单独家庭居住地 ( % ) 低生育率地区中生育率地区高生育率地区二孩出生意愿二孩计划生育时间二孩期望性别想要不想要没想清楚年 ( 现孕 ) 年年年未确定男女无所谓注 : 二孩计划生育时间和二孩期望性别两个问题只针对明确表示期望要二孩的受访家庭, 下同 % 15. 1% 15. 9% 13. 2% % 2 U % 16. 1% 14. 8% 4 16% 19% 15. 6%

9 % 1. 7% 17. 9% 1. 4% 1. 6% 4 Table 4 4 Proportions Wishing to Have a Second Child in One Child Families Where One of the Parents Has No Siblings: Non - migrant VS. Migrant Families 二孩生育意愿未迁移城市 ( % ) 迁移未迁移农村 ( % ) 迁移二孩出生意愿想要不想要没想清楚年 ( 现孕 ) 二孩计划出生时间 2015 年年年未确定二孩期望性别男女无所谓 ~ ~ ~ % 11% 41%

10 36 38 Table 5 5 Proportions Having One Child and Wanting a Second One by Age of Couples in Which One Side Has No Siblings 生育意愿城市 ( % ) 90 后 80 后 70 后农村 ( % ) 90 后 80 后 70 后二孩生育意愿想要不想要没想清楚年 ( 现孕 ) 二孩计划生育时间二孩期望性别 2015 年年年未确定男女无所谓 % % 6 Table 6 二孩生育意愿二孩计划生育时间二孩期望性别 6 Proportions Having One Child and Wanting a Second One by Education of Couples in Which One Side Has No Siblings 城市 ( % ) 农村 ( % ) 生育意愿初中高中中大学大专及以下专技校及以上小学高中中大专初中及以下专技校及以上想要不想要没想清楚年 ( 现孕 ) 年年年未确定男女无所谓

11 % 17. 4% % 50% 19. 6% 11. 6% % 51% 20. 5% 11. 3% 7. 8% 7 7 Table 7 Reasons Not Wanting to Have a Second Child 不要二孩原因城市家庭 ( % ) 农村家庭 ( % ) 全部样本单独家庭双独家庭全部样本单独家庭一孩半家庭双独家庭经济压力无人照料小孩一个孩子就挺好女方不能生育工作太忙高龄生育风险大配偶不想要其它在这个样本中, 不只是符合单独二孩政策的家庭, 还包含双独家庭农村一孩半家庭少数民族家庭在 2013 年 11 月 15 日中共中央十八届三中全会启动实施单独二孩政策之前抢生的, 仍属违法, 须按政策缴纳社会抚养费从 2013 年 11 月 15 日到 2014 年 3 月 27 日湖北省单独二孩政策实施, 这段过渡时期抢生的, 属于行为合法, 程序不合法, 都属于政策内生育, 不征收社会抚养费, 只对当事人双方各处 500 元罚款湖北省修订条例之后, 即 2014 年 3 月 27 日之后生育, 属合法生育本部分统计和调查的是 2013 年 11 月 15 日到 2014 年 7 月 1 日之间生育二孩的单独家庭, 属于在政策出台之前怀孕的抢生群体

12 Figure 5 Sex Ratio by Parity of Urban Families Who Already Had the Second Child ~ Table 8 8 Prediction of Fertility Level after Policy Adjustment 方案一孩半家庭双独家庭单独二孩家庭全部农村城市低方案中方案高方案

13 /References 1 宋月萍, 陈蓉. 生育政策对出生性别比的影响 : 一个微观实证分析. 人口研究,2009; 3: Song Yueping and Chen Rong The Effects of the Family Planning Policy on Sex Ratio at Birth: A Micro Empirical Analysis. Population Research 3 :

14 王广州, 张丽萍. 到底能生多少孩子中国人的政策生育潜力估计. 社会学研究,2012; 5: Wang Guangzhou and Zhang Liping How Many Births Can We Have? Estimation of Potential Policy Fertility. Sociological Studies5: 王军, 王广州. 中国育龄人群的生育意愿及其影响估计. 中国人口科学,2013; 4: Wang Jun and Wang Guangzhou Assessment of Fertility Intention and Its Impact among People at Childbearing A- ges. Chinese Journal of Population Sciences 4: 侯佳伟, 黄四林, 辛自强, 孙铃, 张红川, 窦东徽. 中国人口生育意愿变迁 : 1980 ~ 中国社会科学,2014; 4: Hou Jiawei,Huang Silin and Xin Ziqiang,Sun Ling,Zhang Hongcuan and Dou Donghui Changes in Desired Fertility in China: Social Science in China 4: 庄亚儿, 姜玉, 王志理, 李成福, 齐嘉楠, 王晖, 刘鸿雁, 李伯华, 覃民. 当前我国城乡居民的生育意愿基于 2013 年全国生育意愿调查. 人口研究,2014; 3: 3-13 Zhuang Yaer,Jiang Yu,Wang Zhili,Li Chengfu,Qi Jianan,Wang Hui,Liu Hongyan,Li Bohua and Qin Min Fertility Intention of Rural and Urban Residents in China: Results from the 2013 National Fertility Intention Survey. Population Research 3: Johansson,Sten and Ola Nygren The Missing Girls of China: A New Demographic Account. Population and Development Review 1: John Bongaarts Fertility and Reproductive Preferences in Post - transitional Societies. Population and Development Review Monica Das Gupta,Jiang Zhenghua,Li Bohua,Xie Zhenming,Woojin Chung and Bae Hwa - Ok Why is Son Preference so Persistent in East and South Asia? A Cross - country Study of China,India and the Republic of Korea,Journal of Development Studies 2: Zeng Yi,Tu Ping,Gu Baochang,Xu Yi,Li Bohua and Li Yongping Causes and Implications of the Recent Increase in the Reported Sex Ratio at Birth in China. Population and Development Review 2:

4 38 1985 1990 1985 1990 2. 40 2. 23 2002 2. 04 2007 1. 89 2012 1. 86 2013 1981 2. 61 1985 1989 2. 29 1993 1. 5 ~ 1. 6 2013 1. 7 2014 2010 2013 2011 2

4 38 1985 1990 1985 1990 2. 40 2. 23 2002 2. 04 2007 1. 89 2012 1. 86 2013 1981 2. 61 1985 1989 2. 29 1993 1. 5 ~ 1. 6 2013 1. 7 2014 2010 2013 2011 2 38 3 2014 5 Vol. 38 No. 3 May 2014 3 Population Research * 2013 2013 1. 93 1. 84 1. 98 2. 01 1. 79 1. 83 1. 95 1. 81 104 1 2 128 102 59. 0% 20. 5% 12. 1% 8. 4% 100081 Fertility Intention of Rural and Urban