研討論文系列 97-3 中國大陸可耗竭資源產權與 價格制度之變遷 蕭代基 孟凡強 1
1 摘 要 1949 1 2
1. 引言 1949 1978 1978 user cost marginal private cost MPC marginal user cost MUC marginal environmental cost MEC P = MPC + MUC + MEC 3
2 1949 2. 產權及價格制度變遷 2.1 改革開放前 (1949--1978) 1950 1953 1958 2 Gilbert 1979 Perman et al., 2003 4
5 1997 1961 1961 1 20 1965 1966 1976 1970 1965 10533 500 1951 1954 2006 1950 1952 1953 1970 1975 1928 1934 1986
1949 0.32 1978 6.18 29 1800% 62% 86600% 2986% 1 1 1958 1960 1952 19.8 1978 30 50% 1 1 / 1949 0.32 12 1950 0.43 20 1951 0.53 31 1952 0.66 44 19.8 1953 0.70 62 19.8 1954 0.84 79 20.1 1955 0.98 97 21.1 1956 1.10 116 21.6 1957 1.31 146 19.2 1958 2.70 226 19.2 1959 3.69 373 19.2 1960 3.97 520 20.0 1961 2.78 531 25.3 1962 2.20 575 25.3 1963 2.17 648 25.0 1964 2.15 848 27.5 1965 2.32 1131 28.4 1966 2.52 1455 28.0 6
/ 1967 2.06 1388 27.0 1968 2.20 1599 27.0 1969 2.66 2174 27.0 1970 3.54 3065 27.0 1971 3.92 3941 27.0 1972 4.10 4567 28.0 1973 4.17 5361 29.0 1974 4.13 6485 28.5 1975 4.82 7706 29.8 1976 4.83 8716 29.3 1977 5.50 9364 29.6 1978 6.18 10405 30.0 1979 6.35 10615 31.3 101.5 113.4 100.6 1980 6.20 10595 31.4 100.5 106.4 102.1 1981 6.22 10122 32.6 100.2 102.6 99.3 1982 6.66 10212 35.8 99.8 101.9 100.5 1983 7.15 10607 34.1 99.9 101.5 106.3 1984 7.89 11461 38.8 101.4 102.6 112.0 1985 8.72 12490 41.9 108.7 117.6 107.2 1986 8.94 13069 103.8 96.8 104.6 1987 9.28 13414 107.9 102.8 104.0 1988 9.80 13705 115.0 110.6 106.8 1989 10.54 13764 118.6 112.2 108.4 1990 10.80 13831 104.1 106.2 107.1 1991 10.87 14099 106.2 113.1 118.8 1992 11.16 14210 106.8 116.1 115.3 1993 11.50 14524 124.0 139.7 171.3 1994 12.40 14608 119.5 122.2 148.7 1995 13.61 15005 114.9 111.3 121.2 1996 13.97 15733 102.9 113.7 104.6 1997 13.73 16075 99.7 108.0 107.4 1998 12.50 16100 95.9 96.6 93.0 1999 12.80 16000 97.6 94.8 109.6 2000 12.99 16300 102.8 98.1 144.3 2001 13.81 16396 98.7 106.5 99.1 2002 14.55 16700 97.8 111.6 95.2 2003 17.22 16960 102.3 107.0 115.6 2004 19.92 17587 106.1 115.9 114.2 7
/ 2005 22.05 18135 104.9 118.2 122.4 1982 2005 =100 1964 12 1970 Coase (1937) 2.2 承包經營責任制 : 所有權和經營權的分離 (1979--1992) 3 3 1979 1984 8
1978 12 1979 1984 1979 7 1982 83 1983 1984 1988 1981 84 85 1984 10 1987 4 1988 95% 1979 9
10 6.35 1992 11.16 75% 6% 2.6% 1 Hotelling Hotelling, 1931 1986 3 ( ) 1984 9 18 1984 1981
90 9% 5% 2.3 產權改革 (1993 年至今 ) 1993 11 2006 2000 2003 11
1 Pareto 1996 1994 1% 12
1994 discount premium 8% 3. 結論與比較 2 2 13
2 1. 1949--1978 2. 1. 2. 3. 1979 1992 4. 1984 1. 2. 3. 1993-- 4. 1994 5. 14
參考文獻 2006 (6) 2006 1986 (2) 1988 (9). 1997 2000 (2) Coase, R. H., 1937, The Nature of the Firm, Economica, (4): 386-405. Gilbert, Richard J., 1979, Optimal Depletion of an Uncertain Stock, The Review of Economic Studies, (46): 47-57. Hotelling, H., 1931, The Economics of Exhaustible Resources, Journal of Political Economy, (31): 137-155. Perman, Roger, Yue Ma, James McGilvray and Michael Common, 2003, Natural Resource and Environmental Economics, Pearson Education. 15