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169 [ ] spatial uneven events (GIS) (spatial correlations) (spatial statistics) (Croner et al., 2; Aziz et al., 212; Shafie 211) (point pattern analysis) (clustering patterns) (Maheswan and Haining, 24) (kernel estimation) (geostatistical methods) (risk surface estimation) (raster or cell-based) (Bithell, 199, 1999; Diggle, 2). (temporal kinetics) ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average model) (Zeger et al., 24; Earnest et al., 25) Wen et al., 26; Eisen & Lozano-Fuentes 29; Jeefoo, Tripathi, and Souris 211; Alzahrani et al., 213) - 192 197

17 1952-1965 1952 1965 1995 2 213 8 215 7 1. 192 197 (TB) (BCG) 211 196-197 BCG TB TB WHO TB BCG UICIF BCG BCG UICEF WHO TB ( ) BCG

171 Tuberculosis Male Mortality Rate, 196-1967 Tuberculosis Male Mortality Rate, 1968-1978 Mortality Rate per 1, poputation 61-96 51-6 41-5 31-4 15-3 Mortality Rate per 1, poputation 51-15 41-5 31-4 21-3 1-2 196-1967 23-27 Tuberculosis Female Mortality Rate, 196-1967 Tuberculosis Female Mortality Rate, 1968-1978 Mortality Rate per 1, poputation 51-73 41-5 31-4 21-3 8-2 Mortality Rate per 1, poputation 31-5 21-3 16-2 11-15 -14 196-1967 23-27 WHO BCG 2.

172 Meters 4,5 9, 18, 27, 36, W S E - 度 - - 流行 3 3. (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, COPD) 3 COPD 24 3 5.1% 63.6 22 COPD 1981 33.2 27 3.9 (ICD-9 496) COPD COPD

173 3 2 1 1 2 3 Meters 4,5 9, 18, 27, 36, W S E Mortality per 1, 3 25 2 15 1 Total Male Female 5 2 22 24 26 Year 1999-27 1999 27 COPD 3 PM 1 CO COPD COPD O 2 COPD (GWR) 49.4% 72.2% 6.9% 77.9% -Local Moran s I (A) (B) GWR

174 (A) (B) ot Significant High-High Cluster High-Low Outlier Low-High Outlier Low-Low Cluster 2 4 8 ot Significant High-High Cluster High-Low Outlier Low-High Outlier Low-Low Cluster 2 4 8 (A) (B) (A) (B) PM1_MEA 82.6-93.45 72.92-82.59 61.62-72.91 48.66-61.64 22.7-48.65 2 4 8 Legend Cities/Counties Townships Altitude (meters) 1-99 1-199 2-299 3-399 4-499 5-599 6-699 7-799 8-899 9-999 1,-1,499 15,-1,999 2,-2,499 2,5-3,893 12.5 25 5 75 1 (A) 1994-1999 PM 1 (B) 4. (Chronic Kidney Disease, CKD) 3 213 211 (ESRD) 9% 213 5.89% 28-212 26

研究動態報導 175.6.55 Male.52.5 ESRD/CKD Ratio Female.51.45.41.39.41.37.4.34.31.3.2.1. 圖九 28 28 29 21 Year 211 212 28-212 年末期腎臟病病人佔全部慢性腎臟病病人的比例 29 Prevalence rate (per 1,) 21 Prevalence rate (per 1,) Prevalence rate (per 1,) 117-1387 946-116 85-945 75-84 68-74 536-67 37-412 33-36 117-1387 946-116 85-945 75-84 68-74 536-67 37-412 -36 2 4 117-1387 946-116 85-945 75-84 68-74 536-67 37-412 67-36 8 211 2 4 8 212 Prevalence rate (per 1,) 2 4 8 Prevalence rate (per 1,) 117-1387 946-116 85-945 75-84 68-74 536-67 37-412 74-36 117-1387 946-116 85-945 75-84 68-74 536-67 37-412 72-36 圖十 2 4 8 2 4 8 28-212 年慢性腎臟病鄉鎮盛行率估計始末期腎臟病前期(Pre-ESRD)之病人照護與衛資料的空間資訊只有病患的投保鄉鎮與就醫醫教計畫及初期慢性腎臟病醫療給付改善方案療院所的鄉鎮這對於推估疾病盛行率是一大挑發揮了早期介入與積極治療的效果降低慢性腎戰本研究參考以往的研究成果進行推估慢性臟病病人進入末期腎臟病的機會腎臟病的盛行率地圖如圖十所列在西半部以嘉依據全民健康保險研究資料庫的慢性腎臟義縣嘉義市台南市高雄市交界的山區鄉鎮病患資料進行鄉鎮盛行率的推估由於目前健保為盛行率較高的地區而死亡率的趨勢則由於疾民國 14 年 11 月自然科學簡訊第二十七卷第四期

176 Age-adjusted mortality (per 1, population) 3 25 2 15 1 5 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Year ICD 9 (585) to ICD 1 (18) Male Female 27 28 29 21 211 212 2-212 Local Relative Risk (Male, 28-212) Local Relative Risk (Female, 28-212) Legend Cities/Counties Relative Risk (p <.5).94-1.52 1.521-2.25 2.256-3.52 3.526-4.89 4.897-6.47 6.471-8.54 8.549-12.54 Legend Cities/Counties Relative Risk (p <.5) 1.25-1.61 1.612-2.16 2.182-3.13 3.313-4.35 4.355-5.52 5.527-7.25 7.251-1.25 12.525 5 75 1 W S E 1 3 6 8 12 W S E 28 ICD-9 ICD-1 28-212 1. BCG

177 195 BCG UICEF WHO BCG TB TB 196 UICEF BCG TB 2 TB BCG BCG 196 BCG 196 2. 利例 - - - 3.