Leader's Note (Inductive Reasoning)(Deductive Reasoning)(Linear Extrapolation)(Delphi Method) (Cross Impact Analysis)(Scenario Analysis) (Wild Card)(Black Swan) (No Regret Policy) (Precautionary Principle) (Regret Point) (Vulnerable) Please Everybody ARUP ARUPEmployee-owned Company 03
Did You Know? 03 (No Regret Policy) (Precautionary Principle) Arup 10 1946 4 1 35 90 10,000 10 (Employeeowned Company) ECFA 20 Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement 04
20 Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement ECFA 2011 3 2012 8 9 2013 6 21 WEF 25 World Economic Forum WEF 1971 TRL 26 Technology Readiness Level IOH 38 IOH( Innovation Open House) IOH IOH 05
BIG FUTURE (MIC) 06
D&MS IMAX BIG FUTURE 07
BIG FUTURE 10% 08
BIG FUTURE Know-how 09
BIG QUESTIONS (Arup) (MIC) ThinkWave 2008 2012 (Employeeowned Company) Arup Arup 10
Arup Arup BIG QUESTIONS (Arup) Arup 2007 Arup Arup 2003 2008 (Sir Ove Arup) 1970 Arup (Quality of Work) (Total Architecture) (Humane Organisation (Straight and Honourable Dealings) (Social Usefulness) (Reasonable Prosperity of Members) Arup ThinkWave (We don t want to be the biggest. We want to be the best.) Arup 11
BIG QUESTIONS Arup (25%) Arup Arup 40%~45% 25% 20%~30% Arup (25%) Arup Arup University 2002 Arup (Outcome) (Strategy) We shape a better world ThinkWave? 12
Arup ThinkWave? Arup Arup Arup 1995 2008 Arup 2012 60 236 1 1 1 2002 Arup BIG QUESTIONS 13
BIG QUESTIONS Arup Arup 4 5 Arup Four years, and you are still with Arup? There must be something wrong with you! Arup ThinkWave Arup 20 30 14
Arup Arup Louis Vuitton Arup Arup ThinkWave 2008 Arup Arup Arup 4,000 Arup ThinkWave Arup 40 BIG QUESTIONS 15
BIG QUESTIONS 1980 1986 1987 MIC ThinkWave 2006 1980 16
BIG QUESTIONS Alice H. Amsden Beyond Late Development: Taiwan's Upgrading Policies -- Globalization 1980 ThinkWave 1980 1980 17
BIG QUESTIONS ThinkWave 18
BIG QUESTIONS 1990 19
BIG QUESTIONS ThinkWave ECFA Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement 25 2020 20
ECFA ThinkWave 1980 Émile Durkheim BIG QUESTIONS 1980 21
FOCUS (KEC) 1. As-Is High volume electronics To-Be Leading in health and well-being The lab is our world The world is our lab Let's make things better Sense & Simplicity innovation & you KEC 2013 11 20 CRT TVCD DVD 22
20 - FOCUS Let's Make Things Better Sense and SimplicityInnovation and You 1. 2x2x2 / (Outside In) (Inside Out CEO CEO KEC 2014 8 23
FOCUS 2 2 2-1990 FOCUS CEO CEO 1. 101 5 2. Pankaj Ghemawat, Pedro Nueno (2004). Revitalizing Philips A and Revitalizing Philips B, Harvard Business School Case#9-703-501, Case#9-703-502 3. 1990~2012 http://www.philips.com/ about/investor/financialresults/annualreports/index.page 24
INNOVATION TO-BE (KEC) INNOVATION TO-BE EF 1.WEF KEC 2013 11 WEF GDP (a) (b) (c) 1 GDP 2,000 GDP 3,000 17,000 GDP 17,000 25
INNOVATION TO-BE 2. (Technology Readiness Level, TRL) 2 TRL(Technology Readiness Level ) TRL 1-9 (TRL 6-9) ( TRL 1-6) 3 System Test, Launch & Operations System/ Subsystem Developmetn Technology Demonstration Technology Developmetn Research to Prove Feasibility Basic Technology Research KEC 2013 11 3. TRL 9 TRL 8 TRL 7 TRL 6 TRL 5 TRL 4 TRL 3 TRL 2 TRL 1 26
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1. WEF KEC 2013 11 INNOVATION TO-BE WEF 1 WEF 1 2. FP7 Organization EC (M euro) %EC VTT 100.4 23.24% Helsingin Yliopisto 59.79 13.84% Aalto-Korkeakoulusaatio 33.17 7.68% Turun Yliopisto 17.79 4.11% Oulun Yliopisto 14.05 3.25% FP7 EC (M euro) %EC ICT 90.11 20.86% Health 55.23 12.79% NMP 47.56 11.01% energy 28.17 6.52% Food, agriculture and fisheries, 224.27 5.62% and biotechnology Organization ICT Health NMP energy Food & Others VTT 89 4 39 9 22 Helsingin Yliopisto 13 29 7 1 19 Aalto-Korkeakoulusaatio 34 1 11 1 3 Turun Yliopisto 0 16 3 2 0 Oulun Yliopisto 18 5 0 0 3 KEC 2013 11 27
INNOVATION TO-BE 1 2 Nokia ICT (Clean Tech) 3 FP7 ( 2) 1 ICT 2 Health 3 NMP VTT ICT NMP Health 4 VTT SHOK (Centres for Science, Tech-nology and Innovation) WEF 2 3 1 2 3 4 3. WEF [3] KEC 2013 11 3 INNOVATION TO-BE 2008? FP7 1. The Global Competitiveness Report 2012~2013, WEF, 2012 2. NASA TRL Meter, http://as.nasa.gov/aboutus/trl-introduction.html 3. 2013 28
TOPIC TOPIC (KEC) OECD 22 4 1. 1 29
TOPIC 1. / / KEC 2013 11 21 Robert Lucas 2 2 Robert Lucas (1990). "Why doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?". American Economic Review 80 (2): 92 96 KEC 2013 11 Lucas AnnaLee Saxenian (Science Technology Engineering Mathematics STEM) 96% 2. 3 30
2011 3 35 28 TOPIC 3. 4. 3. KEC 2013 11 (1) (2) 31
TOPIC TOPIC TOPIC (3) 5. 32
BIG SOCIETY BIG SOCIETY (Asset) (Resource) (Place) 33
BIG GENERATION (MIC) 120 1969 30-40 2014 6 2022 300 2,300 1 60 30% 2010 5 2060 1 2,730 8,600 1,800 2040 523 34
BIG 1.5 2014 50.93% 2060 1 GENERATION 1. 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 7 33-34 (2012) MIC 2014 5 35
BIG ENVIRONMENT NGO - BIG ENVIRONMENT 20 1990 1997 18 30 20 18 18 36
BIG EVENT 18/30 AteenThirty 18/30 AteenThirty BIG EVENT? 10 1830 (MIC) 1830 10 18 30 18/30AteenThirty 1830 18-30 18-23 24 30 18/30AteenThirty 18/30 Ateen Thirty 18 30 Ateen Ambitious Top Eager to change Energetic New idea (Interactive Story Telling) 18 30 (Personal Influence) 1830 6 170 37
BIG EVENT 18/30 AteenThirty 1830 BIG EVENT 1830 18/30AteenThirty 2011 IOH 1830! 18/30AteenThirty http://www.taiwanforesight.org.tw/1830ateenthirty/ 38
BIG SCENERY 1930 2013 81 63 06-221- 3000 11 00 22 00 BIG SCENERY 2014. Oct. No. 14 ISSN 22238239 10015 15 http://www.moea.gov.tw (02)2321-2200 106 216 19 (02)2735-6070 http://mic.iii.org.tw/ 103 10 100 8 http://www.taiwanforesight.org.tw/ 500