2013 1 165 2013 1 Comparative Economic & Social Systems No. 1 2013 Jan. 2013 陈万灵 韦晓慧 近年来, 金砖国家之间双边经贸关系得到快速发展, 对其现状和潜力进行深入分析具有重要的现实意义文章运用显性比较优势指数 贸易结合度指数 经常市场份额模型等 方法, 利用 2001 ~ 2011 年的统计数据, 对金砖国家数对双边经贸关系进行量化分析, 得出了 各个国家经贸关系密切程度的结论, 据此提出了改善金砖国家双边及多边经贸关系的建议 金砖国家经贸关系指数分析比较优势 F75 A 1003-3947 2013 01-0062-12 一 关于金砖国家经贸关系的研究现状 2010 2012 2012 2011 2012 2012 2012 2011 2011 2007 M. S. Qureshi 2008 11JZD021 NCET - 09-0081
63 2011 2007 2099 2011 2012 Blazqueze - Lidoy et. al. 2004 2005 2010 2011 2012 2008 二 金砖国家之间贸易状况 2007 ~ 2011 10% 5% 11% 10% 7% 4% 2011 5 14. 7% 16. 8% 2001 ~ 2010 28% 15 2300 2001 8. 1% 2007 14. 1% 2011 16. 8% 2001 8. 7 2001 4. 4% 2011 10. 8% 6. 4 2001 ~ 2011 2001 211. 12 2011 2829. 55 13 2001 4. 27% 2007 6. 62% 2011 9. 59% 2011 47. 58 18. 88 14. 74 12. 81 6. 78 40. 58 21. 88 16. 33 14. 43 6. 78 124. 78 41. 95 271. 64 9. 37 2011
64 2013 1 2011 9 三 金砖国家间贸易关系的定量分析 TCD EN CMS 1. 显示性比较优势指数 Revealed Comparative Advantage RCA 1965 RCA ik = X ik /X i / X wk /X w 1 1 RCA ik i k X ik i k X i i X wk k X w 1 0 + RCA 1 i k 1 i k 2. 贸易结合度指数 Trade Intensity TI 1947 TI ij = X ij /X i / M j /M w 2 2 i j w i j X M TI ij i j X ij i j X i i M j M w j TI < 1 i j TI > 1 i j TI i j j i
65 3. 经常市场份额模型 x = m + s m + 1 4 x m s m + 1 sm s sm s x = X ij t - X ij 0 X ij 0 m = M j t - M j 0 M j 0 s = S j t - S j 0 S = X ij S j 0 M j X ij i j M j j 0 t COMTRADE COMTRADE SITC HS SITC 0 ~ 9 SITC0 SITC1 SITC2 SITC3 SITC4 SITC6 SITC8 3 4 SITC5 SITC7 SITC9 UNCTAD 1995 ~ 2010 ITC ITC DATABASE 2001 ~ 2011 1. 五国显性比较优势的计算结果 1 2001 ~ 2010 1 RCA 1 0 1 2 4 RCA 4. 6 RCA 0. 9 RCA
66 2013 1 表 1: 金砖国家各类产品的显性比较优势指数比较 ( 2001 ~ 2010 年 ) 2001 2010 2001 2010 2001 2010 2001 2010 2001 2010 0 3. 499 3. 908 0. 214 0. 282 2. 079 1. 200 0. 840 0. 445 1. 217 1. 136 1 1. 840 1. 887 0. 129 0. 223 0. 469 0. 595 0. 351 0. 157 1. 959 2. 224 2 4. 954 6. 274 1. 361 0. 744 1. 226 1. 649 0. 514 0. 173 3. 063 4. 305 3 0. 361 0. 653 5. 207 4. 184 0. 492 1. 120 0. 317 0. 110 1. 178 0. 654 4 3. 418 1. 499 0. 174 0. 284 1. 472 0. 649 0. 133 0. 045 0. 398 0. 387 6 1. 284 0. 900 1. 235 0. 871 2. 655 2. 154 1. 206 1. 200 0. 366 0. 215 8 0. 476 0. 217 0. 158 0. 058 1. 584 1. 125 2. 591 2. 179 0. 322 0. 217 5 0. 573 0. 552 0. 503 0. 366 1. 117 0. 952 0. 518 0. 494 0. 803 0. 632 7 0. 664 0. 494 0. 159 0. 087 0. 213 0. 426 0. 883 1. 457 0. 498 0. 554 9 0. 707 0. 239 3. 383 2. 930 0. 795 0. 538 0. 059 0. 024 0. 085 0. 097 UNCOMTRADE 2 3 2 9 RCA 3 0 2 0 RCA 2 RCA 6 8 6 8 7 9 RCA 5 RCA 2009 1 4 0 ~ 4 RCA 6 5 9 RCA 7 RCA 2003 1 7 5 0 1 2 0 2 4 3 1 0 2
67 RCA 8 6 5 7 2001 ~ 2010 5 7 RCA 2. 贸易结合度指数分析结果 2 2001 ~ 2011 2 2011 2001 ~ 2010 表 2: 金砖国家间的贸易结合度指数 2001 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2. 87 1. 04 1. 44 1. 39 1. 29 1. 03 1. 98 0. 61 1. 87 0. 29 1. 06 0. 77 0. 82 0. 85 0. 94 1. 20 1. 66 1. 71 1. 77 1. 13 1. 80 2. 25 1. 66 1. 63 1. 26 1. 17 1. 88 0. 21 0. 23 0. 36 0. 30 0. 35 0. 31 0. 26 1. 41 0. 73 0. 58 0. 93 0. 70 1. 08 1. 46 0. 88 0. 65 0. 69 0. 56 0. 74 0. 92 0. 01 0. 02 0. 02 0. 13 0. 02 0. 04 0. 03 0. 57 0. 87 1. 48 0. 83 1. 29 0. 95 2. 90 0. 76 0. 37 0. 40 0. 39 1. 06 0. 55 1. 16 0. 80 0. 74 0. 87 0. 85 1. 85 2. 72 2. 55 2. 20 3. 16 2. 46 0. 55 0. 57 1. 09 0. 97 1. 20 1. 17 0. 75 1. 54 1. 88 1. 42 1. 08 1. 16 1. 28 1. 55 0. 01 0. 01 0. 02 0. 02 0. 02 0. 01 0. 98 0. 98 1. 13 1. 21 1. 31 1. 26 1. 08 1. 14 0. 61 0. 74 0. 54 0. 78 0. 61 0. 72 0. 17 0. 16 0. 20 0. 24 0. 24 0. 21 0. 22 1. 78 1. 89 1. 60 1. 82 1. 82 1. 57 0. 46 0. 47 0. 84 1. 32 1. 25 1. 37 0. 73 UNCOMTRADE
68 2013 1 2. 46 1. 98 1. 88 1. 57 1. 55 1. 13 1. 08 1. 08 1. 06 2 TI 1 2001 TI 2008 1 TI 1 TI 1 TI 2006 1 TI 2005 1 TI 2003 2 TI 1 TI 0. 02 TI 1 TI 1 TI 1 2009 TI 1 3. 经常市场份额模型分析结果 4 2011 2001 ~ 2010 3 1
69 表 3: 金砖国家间出口增长源泉分析表 ( % ) x m s m + 1 s sm 15. 85 21. 89-6. 04-4. 96-1. 08 32. 04 23. 95 8. 08 6. 52 1. 56 36. 24 21. 41 14. 83 12. 21 2. 61 13. 29 13. 52-0. 23-0. 20-0. 03 28. 24 14. 51 13. 73 11. 99 1. 74 21. 35 23. 95-2. 61-2. 10-0. 50 15. 41 21. 41-6. 00-4. 94-1. 06 25. 70 13. 52 12. 17 10. 72 1. 45 36. 00 14. 51 21. 49 18. 77 2. 72 5. 79 21. 89-16. 10-13. 21-2. 89 38. 62 21. 41 17. 21 14. 18 3. 00 30. 76 13. 52 17. 24 15. 18 2. 05 37. 96 14. 51 23. 50 20. 52 2. 98 30. 43 21. 89 8. 54 7. 00 1. 53 40. 68 23. 95 16. 73 13. 49 3. 23 29. 58 13. 52 15. 98 14. 07 1. 90 11. 39 14. 51-3. 12-2. 73-0. 40 28. 59 21. 89 6. 69 5. 49 1. 20 26. 13 23. 95 2. 18 1. 76 0. 42 37. 55 21. 41 16. 14 13. 30 2. 85 UNCOMTRADE 2 14. 51% 13. 73% 13. 52% 12. 17% 3 21. 89% 21. 41% - 16. 10% 17. 21% 21. 49% 17. 24% 14. 51% 13. 52% 4 23. 95% 21. 89% 16. 73% 8. 54% 23. 50% 15. 98% 14. 51% 13. 52% 5
70 2013 1 四 结论及政策涵义 1. 基于巴西的金砖国家贸易关系及政策涵义 1 2 3 2. 基于俄罗斯的金砖国家贸易关系及政策涵义 1 2 3 WTO
71 3. 基于印度的金砖国家贸易关系及政策涵义 1 2 4. 基于中国的金砖国家贸易关系及政策涵义 1 2 5. 基于南非的金砖国家贸易关系及政策涵义 10% 1 2 3
72 2013 1 2008 2008 3 2012 2012 4 2012 2012 2 2012 2012 2 2007 2007 5 2012 2012 19 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2007 2007 3 2012 2011 10 2010 2010 5 M. S. Qureshi 2008 2008 4 2011 2011 12 2011 2011 3 2011 2011 2012 2012 2 2009 1992 ~ 2006 2009 7 2011 2011 10 2012 2012 2 2005 2005 7 2012 2012 4 2011 2011 3 Blazqueze - Lidoy et. al. 2004 Angel or devil Chinese trade impact on Latin American Emerging Markets. Working paper.
73 A Quantitative Analysis of the Trade Relationship among the BRICS Countries Chen Wanling & Wei Xiaohui Research Center for International Trade Economic Guangdong University of Foreign Studies Guangzhou Abstract In recent years bilateral economic and trade relationships among the BRICS countries have developed rapidly and an in - depth analysis of their status and potential has strong practical significance. Looking at statistical data from 2001 ~ 2011 and using the revealed comparative advantage index the trade intensity index and the regular market share model this paper carries out an accurate quantitative analysis of bilateral e- conomic and trade relationships between the BRICS countries. The paper goes on to point out problems in bilateral relations and puts forward recommendations for improving bilateral and multilateral economic and trade relations between BRIC countries. Key words BRICS Countries Index Analysis Economic and Trade Cooperation Comparative Advantage ( 责任编辑 : 刘英 ) 櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃櫃 ( 上接第 20 页 ) Inclusive Institutions Extractive Institutions and Sustainable Prosperity Fan Shitao Beijing Normal University Beijing Abstract This paper focuses on the institutional analysis framework proposed by Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson to explain the history of world development in which the interactions of political institutions and economic institutions are clarified. According to the framework the virtuous cycle of inclusive institutions perpetuates prosperity while the vicious cycle of extractive institutions makes nations fail. The framework is relevant and insightful for Chinese political and economic reform which is why the author has written this paper. Key words Inclusive Institutions Extractive Institutions Political Institutions Economic Institutions Political Institutions ( 责任编辑 : 王燕燕 )