8 4 2009 7 ( ) China Econo mic Quarterly Vol18, No14 J uly, 2009 3,,,,,, 1979 2006 29, ; ;,,,, 30,,, (2005),,, (2007), (2007),, U, (2008) 3, ;, :, 135,510275 ; E2mail :lnsxuxx @mail. sysu. edu. cn (70803055) (08J C790103) (08JJD820170) (07JDTDXM79006) 2008,
1302 ( ) 8,,,,?,,,,,,,, :?,?,,?,??, :,, 1,,, 1980, ( ), 1982, 65,,,,, 1979 2006, ; ;,,, Jones and Olken (2005) 130 1945 2000, Jones and Olk2 en (2005), :, 1, Jones and Olken (2005), 130 1945 2000, 57,, (t he reversal in economic growt h)
4 : 1303 Jones and Olken (2005) Jones and Olken (2005), ;,, Jones and Olken (2005), ;,,,, : ; ; ; ( ), : ;,, (Qian and Weingast, 1997) (2008),,, (2004, 2007) ; ( 2005, 2007) ; ( 2005, 2007, 2008),,,,,,,, 2,,,,,,,, 2 Li and Zhou (2005),,, 10
1304 ( ) 8,,,,, 3, (2007) ; (2008),,,, 20 90 ( Zhuravskaya, 2000 ; Bardhan, 2006),, ( Zhuravskaya, 2000 ; Blanchard and Shleifer, 2001), (2004),,,,,, (, 2005), ( ),,, (2007) (2008),,,,, (2007), 1, (2007) U,, (2007) (2008),, (2008),,, 3,,
4 : 1305,, 4,,,, ( ), ;,,,,,,, :,,,, 5,, 59,,,,,,,,,, 6, 65,,,, 4,, (2008), 5 6,,,
1306 ( ) 8,,, 7,, : (1) ; (2) ; (3),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 8,,,,, 9,, 10,,,, :, 7 1978 2005,59 %,41 % (,2008) 8,,, 9 Besley and Ghatak (2005),,, (mission), (productivity),, 10 (2005), ;,,
4 : 1307,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 20 70 Kramer (1971) ; Nordhaus (1975) ;, Hibbs (1977, 1987),, ; Frey and Schneider (1978), 20 80,,, (Alesina, 1987, 1988 ; Rogoff and Sibert, 1988 ; Rogoff, 1990),,,, Tao (2003), 1987, ; (2006) 1989 2004, (2007),,,, 1,,,,
1308 ( ) 8,,,,,,,,, (2007) (2008),,,, U, (2003), 1979 2006 29 ( ) 11 1979 2006,,, 1, 1979 2006, 385, 13175, 28, 1985 ; 3, 1984, 80,, 1, 1979 2006, 2,, 18,, 7,, 9,, 3 ; 11,
4 : 1309, 11,, 4 2 1979 2006, 1993 2004 GDP 1952 2004, 1978 1992 GDP 1978 2004 55, 2005 2006 (2006, 2007) 1979 2006,, GDP,,, 3 29, ; - 3, - 0149, 17,, 015 3
1310 ( ) 8 ( ), git = 0 + 1 chanit + 2log ( y it - 1 ) + 3 log ( nit + it + it ) + 4 log (invit ) + i + t + it. (1) (1), git GDP, chanit, 1, 0 ; yit - 1 nit it it invit, GDP 12 ; i t, :,, (1),,, (1) Mankiw (1992),,, it + it = 0110,,, 1, 1, ( ) 1 (1) 1 1,, 1 = - 0140, 5 %,,, 014 3, 12,,,
4 : 1311 chan log ( y ( - 1) ) log ( n + + ) log (inv) log (inv( - 1) ) resid 1 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) 10. 6 3 3 3 (90. 50) - 0. 40 3 3 ( - 2. 00) OL S 35. 5 3 3 3 (5. 90) - 0. 43 3 3 ( - 2. 20) - 3. 5 3 3 3 ( - 4. 20) 1979 2006 33. 7 3 3 3 (5. 10) - 0. 43 3 3 ( - 2. 20) - 3. 4 3 3 3 ( - 4. 01) - 0. 56 ( - 0. 70) 0. 05 (0. 10) 2SL S 35. 6 3 3 3 (5. 40) - 0. 44 3 3 ( - 2. 21) - 3. 5 3 3 3 ( - 4. 00) - 0. 33 ( - 0. 40) 1. 20 3 3 (2. 10) 45. 7 3 3 3 (5. 23) - 1. 18 3 ( - 1. 77) - 4. 7 3 3 3 ( - 4. 04) - 0. 49 ( - 0. 67) 2. 04 3 3 (2. 41) 1986 2006 OL S OL S 2SL S OL S 45. 4 3 3 3 (5. 08) - 0. 96 ( - 1. 77) - 4. 6 3 3 3 ( - 3. 86) - 0. 46 ( - 0. 64) 2. 03 3 3 (2. 46) 0. 85 (1. 36) 53. 3 3 3 3 (7. 70) - 0. 47 3 3 3 ( - 3. 0) - 5. 3 3 3 3 ( - 5. 70) 0. 40 (0. 70) 2. 90 3 3 3 (5. 00) 59. 8 3 3 3 (7. 16) - 1. 20 3 ( - 1. 71) - 6. 3 3 3 3 ( - 5. 95) - 0. 14 ( - 0. 15) 2. 59 3 3 3 (3. 37) 59. 4 3 3 3 (3. 90) - 0. 98 3 ( - 1. 74) - 6. 3 3 3 3 ( - 3. 11) - 0. 12 ( - 0. 20) 2. 57 3 3 3 (4. 17) 0. 59 (1. 09) adj2r 2 0. 719 0. 717 0. 716 0. 712 0. 483 0. 49 0. 871 0. 576 0. 585 D2W 1. 6 1. 6 1. 6 1. 6 1. 7 1. 7 1. 2 1. 1 1. 1 4. 87 2. 90 812 812 812 812 736 736 609 606 606 : (1) 5 8 tenure_ sz, tenure_ sj, age_ sz, age_ sj, log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( 0. 1 + n), log(inv( - 1) ) ; (2) t ; 3 3 3 3 3 3 g 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 2 4,, 1,,, 01 4, 5 %log ( y) log ( n + 011) log (inv), 1 1 4,, ( ),,?,,,,, 1978 2006 29
1312 ( ) 8 probit, (), 1,, 0 probit, probit,, 10 %,,,,,,, 1978 2006 probit pro (chan) = - 6. 31 ( - 5. 44) + 0. 02 (1. 21) + 0. 18 (5. 70) tenure _ sz + 0. 08tenure _ sj (2. 71) age _ sz + 0. 05age _ sj. z, Log _ likelihood (3. 13) - 39417, 736, 1 261, (1) 1 5, chan,, 10 % 2SL S,, nr 2 = 4187, 2 q,, 13, Hausman, probit,,, OL S 1 6, 20 %,, chan,, 10 % 13 5 %
4 : 1313,, 1, 1978 1985,, 1986, 1986 2006, 1 7, 1-015, 1 % 1986 2006, (1) 8, chan,, 10 %,,,,,,, 2 1 (1),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
1314 ( ) 8,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1,, (1),, 1, 0, 1 14 chan log( y( - 1) ) 2,, log( n + + ) log(inv( - 1) ) (1) 34. 91 33 3 (5. 30) - 0. 15 ( - 0. 51) - 3. 38 3 3 3 ( - 3. 92) - 0. 34 ( - 0. 43) 1. 16 3 3 (2. 10) (2) 2 : (3) (4) 34. 9 3 3 3 (5. 3) 0. 40 g (1. 7) - 3. 4 3 3 3 ( - 4. 0) - 0. 3 ( - 0. 4) 1. 1 3 3 (2. 0) 33. 9 3 3 3 (5. 2) 0. 58 3 3 (2. 6) - 3. 3 3 3 3 ( - 3. 8) - 0. 4 ( - 0. 5) 1. 1 3 3 (2. 0) 34. 9 3 3 3 (5. 3) - 0. 17 ( - 0. 8) - 3. 4 3 3 3 ( - 3. 9) - 0. 3 ( - 0. 4) 1. 1 3 3 (2. 1) (5) 34. 8 3 33 (5. 3) - 0. 06 ( - 0. 3) - 3. 4 3 33 ( - 3. 9) - 0. 3 ( - 0. 4) 1. 1 3 3 (2. 1) (6) 34. 7 3 3 3 (5. 3) 0. 33 g (1. 5) - 3. 4 3 3 3 ( - 3. 9) - 0. 4 ( - 0. 5) 1. 1 3 3 (2. 0) (7) 35. 5 3 3 3 (5. 4) 0. 36 g ( - 1. 5) - 3. 5 3 3 3 ( - 4. 0) - 0. 3 ( - 0. 4) 1. 2 3 3 (2. 1) adj2r 2 0. 709 0. 711 0. 719 0. 710 0. 708 0. 710 0. 713 D2W 1. 58 1. 6 1. 6 1. 6 1. 6 1. 6 1. 6 F 34. 53 34. 8 36. 2 34. 8 34. 5 34. 7 35. 2 812 812 812 812 812 812 812 :t ; 3 3 3 3 3 3 g 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 %;FE2OL S 14, 1,0, 0
4 : 1315 1, ;, 1 016,, 5 %;, 1 = 014,,, 1, 0, 1 013,, ;, 1 014,,, 1,,,,,, 1,, 1979 2006,, (2007) (2008), U,, 4, 4,, 3 3 U, U,, ( ) 4 3 chan _ east chan _ noneast, chan _ timea chan _ timeb 1978 1991 1992 2006
1316 ( ) 8 chan_east chan_noneast chan_zhixia chan_ nonzhixia chan_timea chan_timeb log( y ( - 1) ) log( n + + ) log(inv( - 1) ) (1) OL S 43. 27 33 3 (7. 27) - 0. 961 3 3 3 ( - 2. 93) - 0. 127 ( - 0. 49) - 4. 486 3 3 3 ( - 5. 21) - 0. 574 ( - 0. 82) 1. 954 3 3 (2. 27) (2) 2SL S 45. 60 3 3 3 (5. 24) - 1. 098 ( - 1. 55) - 1. 142 ( - 1. 28) - 4. 654 3 3 3 ( - 4. 03) - 0. 496 ( - 0. 67) 2. 031 3 3 (2. 41) 3 (3) 2SL S 46. 71 3 3 3 (4. 66) - 5. 083 ( - 1. 49) 0. 492 (0. 45) - 4. 96 3 3 3 ( - 3. 64) - 0. 717 ( - 0. 67) 1. 932 3 3 (2. 13) (4) OL S 42. 84 3 3 3 (7. 81) - 0. 135 ( - 0. 18) - 0. 407 3 ( - 1. 85) - 4. 415 3 3 3 ( - 5. 52) - 0. 547 ( - 0. 80) 1. 967 3 3 (2. 299) (5) 2SL S 46. 51 3 3 3 (5. 43) - 3. 159 3 ( - 1. 66) - 1. 159 3 ( - 1. 82) - 4. 68 3 3 3 ( - 4. 08) - 0. 318 ( - 0. 36) 2. 151 33 (2. 47) (6) OL S 42. 85 3 3 3 (7. 84) - 0. 456 ( - 1. 29) - 0. 396 3 3 ( - 2. 37) - 4. 41 3 3 3 ( - 5. 53) - 0. 553 ( - 0. 81) 1. 963 3 3 (2. 29) (7) 2SL S 42. 87 3 3 3 (4. 82) 0. 901 (0. 55) - 2. 189 33 ( - 2. 48) - 4. 300 3 3 3 ( - 3. 70) - 0. 643 ( - 0. 83) 2. 200 3 3 (2. 53) adj2r 2 0. 466 0. 483 0. 388 0. 464 0. 461 0. 464 0. 467 D2W 1. 66 1. 68 1. 80 1. 64 1. 72 1. 65 1. 71 24. 6 1. 71 7. 77 9. 95 812 736 812 812 736 812 736 : (1) 2 east tenure_sz, east tenure_sj, east age_sz,east age_sj, noneast tenure_sz, noneast tenure_ sj, noneast age_ sz, noneast age _ sj, log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( 0. 1 + n), log (inv( - 1) ) ; 3 east age_ sz, east age_ sj, noneast age_ sz, noneast age_ sj, log ( y ( - 1) ), log (0. 1 + n) log(inv( - 1) ) ; 5 age_sz nonzhixiashi, age_sj nonzhixi2 ashi, zhixiashi age_sz, zhixiashi age_sj, tenure_sz nonzhixiashi, tenure_sj nonzhixiashi, zhixiashi tenure_sz, zhixiashi tenure_sj, log ( y ( - 1) ), log (0. 1 + n), log (inv ( - 1) ) ; 7 time_a tenure_sz, time_a tenure_sj, time_a age_sz, time_a age_sj, time_b tenure_sz, time_b tenure_sj, time_b age_sz, time_b age_sj, log ( y ( - 1) ), log (0. 1 + n),log (inv( - 1) ) (2) t ; 3 3 3 3 3 3 g 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 %,, 3 1, 1979 2006, - 0196, 1 % - 0113,,,, 1, 3 2 3
4 : 1317, 2, 3, 15,, 3 4 5 OL S,,,,,,, Jones and Olken (2005),, 3 OL S, chan _ timea - 0145, ; chan _ timeb - 014, 5 % 3 7 chan _ timea, ; chan _ timeb - 212, 5 %, OL S, 90,, ( ),,, 1,, 1, chan _ not more 1, 0 ; 1, chan _ more 1, 0 4 1 1979 2006, chan _ notmore,, chan _ more, 1, 1 % 15,,
1318 ( ) 8, 2SL S,,, 4 2 3,, chan _ notmore 4 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) chan_not more chan_more chan_bot h chan_double chan_single log( y ( - 1) ) log( n + + ) log(inv( - 1) ) 1979 2006 OLS 2SL S 2SL S OL S 2SLS 42. 62 3 3 3 (7. 87) - 0. 192 ( - 0. 80) - 1. 124 3 33 ( - 3. 27) - 4. 39 3 3 3 ( - 5. 61) - 0. 547 ( - 0. 81) 1. 906 3 3 (2. 22) 42. 87 3 3 3 (4. 54) 1. 032 (0. 73) - 3. 53 3 ( - 1. 76) - 4. 37 3 3 3 ( - 3. 57) - 0. 468 ( - 0. 62) 1. 645 3 (1. 81) 43. 08 33 3 (4. 60) 0. 883 (0. 63) - 3. 553 3 ( - 1. 72) - 4. 39 3 3 3 ( - 3. 61) - 0. 469 ( - 0. 63) 1. 662 3 (1. 83) 42. 44 3 3 3 (7. 86) - 1. 058 3 3 3 ( - 2. 96) - 2. 876 3 3 3 ( - 3. 01) - 0. 197 ( - 0. 81) - 4. 36 3 3 3 ( - 5. 58) - 0. 533 ( - 0. 79) 1. 910 3 3 (2. 21) 45. 08 3 3 3 (4. 30) - 3. 87 3 ( - 1. 69) 8. 05 (0. 36) 0. 835 (0. 54) - 4. 71 3 33 ( - 3. 24) - 0. 572 ( - 0. 67) 1. 633 3 (1. 81) 1986 2006 OLS 58. 70 3 3 3 (3. 96) - 0. 971 3 3 3 ( - 2. 93) - 0. 989 3 3 3 ( - 2. 94) - 0. 313 ( - 1. 61) - 6. 24 3 3 3 ( - 3. 15) - 0. 148 ( - 0. 27) 2. 421 3 3 3 (4. 17) 2SL S 59. 13 3 3 3 (4. 92) - 5. 66 3 ( - 1. 82) - 66. 21 ( - 0. 81) 1. 631 (0. 98) - 6. 219 3 3 3 ( - 3. 84) 0. 407 (0. 42) 1. 878 3 (1. 72) adj2r 2 0. 468 0. 441 0. 445 0. 467 0. 408 0. 583-0. 09 D2W 1. 65 1. 70 1. 70 1. 64 1. 76 1. 07 1. 72 5. 15 4. 71 4. 49 2. 17 812 736 736 812 736 609 606 : (1) 2 tenure_sz, tenure_sj, age_sz,age_sj,tenure_sz tenure_sj, age_sz age_sj,age_ sj tenure_ sz,age_ sz tenure_ sj,age_ sz tenure_ sz, age _ sj tenure _ sj,log ( y ( - 1) ), log (0. 1 + n),log (inv( - 1) ) ; 3 tenure_sz,tenure_sj,age_sz,age_sj,tenure_sz tenure _sj,age_sz age_sj,age_sj tenure_sz,age_sz tenure_sj,log ( y ( - 1) ),log (0. 1 + n),log (inv( - 1) ) ; 5 tenure_ sz,tenure_ sj,age_ sz,age_ sj,tenure_ sz tenure_ sj,age_ sz age_ sj,age_ sj tenure_sz,age _ sz tenure _ sj, age _ sz tenure _ sz, age _ sj tenure _ sj, log ( y ( - 1) ), log ( 0. 1 + n), log (inv( - 1) ) ; 7 tenure_sz,tenure_sj,age_sz,age_sj,tenure_sz tenure_sj,age_sz age_ sj, age _ sj tenure _ sz, age _ sz tenure _ sj, age _ sz tenure _ sz, age _ sj tenure _ sj, log ( y ( - 1) ),log(0. 1 + n),log(inv( - 1) ) (2) t ; 3 3 3 3 3 3 g 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 %
4 : 1319,, chan _ more, 10 %, 3,,,,, 16, 0 1 chan _ double chan _ bot h, 1 0 1 chan _ single 4 4 7 4 OL S, chan _ single,, chan _ bot h chan _ double 1 %, 1 5, 2, chan _ single chan _ double,, chan _ bot h 1 %, 3, 6 7 1986 2006,, chan _ double,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,, 61, () chan _ gounder61 1, 0 ; 61 65, chan _ go6165 1, 0 ; 65, chan _ goup65 1, 0 5 1 OL S, 16,, 1
1320 ( ) 8 chan_gounder61 chan_go6165 chan_goup65 chan_comeunder61 chan_come6165 chan_comeup65 log ( y ( - 1) ) log ( n + + ) log (inv( - 1) ) 5 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 1979 2006 OL S 43. 8 3 3 3 (4. 77) - 0. 14 ( - 0. 47) - 0. 23 ( - 0. 63) - 1. 21 3 3 ( - 2. 51) - 4. 54 3 3 3 ( - 3. 85) - 0. 557 ( - 0. 74) 1. 99 3 3 (2. 15) 2SL S 46. 58 3 3 3 (4. 44) - 1. 01 ( - 1. 25) 0. 01 (0. 02) - 1. 35 3 3 ( - 1. 99) - 4. 74 3 3 3 ( - 3. 54) - 0. 279 ( - 0. 35) 2. 00 3 3 (2. 05) 1986 2006 OL S 58. 70 3 3 3 (5. 55) - 0. 32 ( - 1. 22) - 0. 27 ( - 1. 08) - 1. 17 3 3 3 ( - 2. 65) - 6. 23 3 3 3 ( - 4. 47) - 0. 150 ( - 0. 24) 2. 54 3 3 3 (3. 24) 2SL S 58. 91 3 3 3 (5. 66) - 0. 45 ( - 0. 56) - 0. 36 ( - 0. 54) - 0. 81 ( - 1. 23) - 6. 25 3 3 3 ( - 4. 51) - 0. 122 ( - 0. 19) 2. 51 3 3 3 (3. 20) 1979 2006 OL S 43. 9 3 3 3 (4. 54) - 0. 27 ( - 1. 07) - 0. 81 g ( - 1. 59) - 1. 76 ( - 1. 17) - 4. 61 3 3 3 ( - 3. 69) - 0. 610 ( - 0. 80) 1. 79 3 (1. 92) 2SL S 56. 01 3 3 3 (4. 11) - 0. 69 3 ( - 1. 79) - 0. 84 ( - 0. 35) - 14. 92 g ( - 1. 63) - 6. 49 3 3 3 ( - 3. 62) - 0. 968 ( - 0. 93) 0. 50 (0. 32) 1986 2006 OL S - 0. 32 3 3 3 (5. 59) - 0. 32 g ( - 1. 48) - 1. 35 3 3 3 ( - 2. 76) - 6. 36 3 3 3 ( - 4. 53) - 0. 085 ( - 0. 14) 2. 45 3 3 3 (3. 13) 2SL S 59. 94 3 3 3 (5. 56) - 0. 56 g ( - 1. 48) - 1. 23 ( - 0. 66) - 6. 38 3 3 3 ( - 4. 49) - 0. 112 ( - 0. 18) 2. 49 3 3 3 (3. 16) adj2r 2 0. 469 0. 487 0. 587 0. 586 0. 468 0. 311 0. 587 0. 586 D2W 1. 66 1. 68 1. 08 1. 07 1. 66 1. 84 1. 08 1. 09 8. 39 9. 42 7. 25 17. 3 812 736 609 606 812 736 609 606 : (1) 2 4 tenure_sz ageunder60_sz, tenure_sj ageunder60_sj,age_sz age2 under60_sz,age_sj ageunder60_sj,tenure_sz age6165_sz,tenure_sj age6165_sj,age_sz age6165_sz, age_sj age6165_sj,tenure_ sz ageup65_ sz,tenure_ sj ageup65_ sj,age_ sz ageup65_ sz,age_ sj age2 up65_sj,log ( y ( - 1) ),log(0. 1 + n),log(inv( - 1) ) ; 6 tenure_sz ageunder60_sz,ten2 ure_sj ageunder60_sj,age_sz ageunder60_sz,age_sj ageunder60_sj,tenure_sz age6165_sz,tenure_sj age6165_sj,age_sz age6165_sz,age_sj age6165_sj,tenure_sz ageup65_sz,tenure_sj ageup65_sj, age_sz ageup65_sz,age_sj ageup65_sj, log ( y ( - 1) ),log (0. 1 + n),log (inv ( - 1) ) ; 8 tenure_sz ageunder60_sz,tenure_sj ageunder60_sj,age_sz ageunder60_sz,age_sj ageunder60_sj, tenure_sz age6165_sz,tenure_sj age6165_sj,age_sz age6165_sz,age_sj age6165_sj,log ( y ( - 1) ), log (0. 1 + n), log (inv( - 1) ) (2) t ; 3 3 3 3 3 3 g 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 %, chan _ goup65 5 %, 1 2,, chan _ goup65 5 % 3 4 1986 2006, OL S 1979 2006, 2SL S,, chan _ goup65
4 : 1321,, 61, () chan _ comeunder61 1, 0 ; 61 65, chan _ come6165 1, 0 ; 65, chan _ comeup65 1, 0 5 OL S,, 10 %, chan _ comeunder61, chan _ come6165, chan _ comeup65 2SL S, chan _ comeup65 15 %, 1986 2006, 65, OL S chan _ come6165-1135, 1 %, chan _ comeunder61,, 2SL S, chan _ come6165 chan _ comeunder61 17,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ) H P ;, 17 8,,,,,
1322 ( ) 8 6, 6 1 4,,, - 014, 5 %;, 20 %,, 6? (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) OL S 2SL S OL S 2SL S 0. 152 3 3 0. 340 3 18. 511 3 3 3 20. 08 3 3 (2. 488) (1. 69) (3. 30) (2. 19) OL S 2SL S OL S 2SL S 10. 45 3 3 3 10. 23 3 3 3 24. 32 3 3 3 (365) (60. 29) (8. 73) 24. 10 3 3 3 (8. 53) chan log ( y ( - 1) ) log ( n + + ) log (inv( - 1) ) - 0. 404 3 3 ( - 2. 48) - 0. 773 ( - 1. 371) - 0. 426 3 3 3 ( - 2. 71) - 2. 597 3 3 3 ( - 3. 31) - 0. 420 ( - 0. 75) 0. 839 (0. 885) - 0. 829 g ( - 1. 484) - 2. 712 3 3 ( - 2. 34) - 0. 336 ( - 0. 551) 0. 935 (1. 080) 0. 0208 (0. 275) 0. 616 g (1. 468) 0. 003 (0. 04) 0. 251 (0. 833) - 1. 818 3 3 3-1. 800 3 3 3 ( - 5. 49) - 0. 134 ( - 0. 34) 1. 127 3 3 3 (4. 47) ( - 5. 35) - 0. 126 ( - 0. 32) 1. 116 3 3 3 (4. 46) adj2r 2 0. 390 0. 436 0. 398 0. 442 0. 642 0. 622 0. 664 0. 660 D2W 2. 09 1. 94 2. 07 1. 91 0. 06 0. 19 0. 73 0. 10 2. 72 5. 70 6. 94 7. 17 812 736 812 736 812 812 812 812 : (1) 2 age_sj, age_sz,tenure_sj, tenure_sz ; 4 age_sj,age_ sz,tenure_sj, tenure_sz,log( y ( - 1) ),log ( n + 0. 1),log (in ( - 1) ) ; 6 age_sj,age_sze,,,, ; 8 age_sj,age_sz, log ( y ( - 1) ),log ( n + 0. 1),log (inv ( - 1) ),,,, (2) t ; 3 3 3 3 3 3 g 1 % 5 % 10 % 15 %, 6 5 8,,,,,, 1979 2006,,
4 : 1323 ( ),,, 29 1979 2006, dependi = 0 + 1f reqi + 2 log (ryi) + 3 east i + 4 middle i + i. (2) (2), freq log (ry) east middle, 1978, ; depend, 1979 2006, ave _ g ; 1979 2006, 1979 2006, se _ g ; 1979 2006 bianyi _ g ; HP,, se _ vol (2), 1 :,, 1979 2006 ;,,, 1979 2006 ; 1, 1979 2006 7 (2), 7 1, 1 = - 0109,,, 1979 2006, 29 8 18,, 7 2 4,, 1, 5 %1 %, 1979 2006,,, 1, 0115 0102,, 1979 2006,,
1324 ( ) 8 7 :1979 2006 (1) (2) (3) (4) ave_g se_g bianyi_g se_vol 18. 9 3 3 3 (8. 2) 2. 6 (1. 0) - 0. 1 ( - 0. 3) 3. 1 (1. 2) freq - 0. 09 ( - 1. 4) 0. 15 3 3 (2. 0) 0. 02 3 3 3 (2. 9) 0. 15 3 3 (2. 1) log(ry) - 1. 4 3 3 3 ( - 3. 8) - 0. 1 ( - 0. 3) 0. 04 (1. 0) - 0. 3 ( - 0. 7) east 2. 8 3 3 3 (5. 8) - 0. 1 ( - 0. 2) - 0. 11 3 3 ( - 2. 3) 0. 08 (0. 1) middle 0. 4 (0. 8) - 0. 6 ( - 1. 1) - 0. 08 3 ( - 1. 7) - 0. 3 ( - 0. 7) adj2r 2 0. 554 0. 017 0. 196 0. 037 D2W 2. 5 2. 1 2. 2 2. 1 29 29 29 29 : t ; 3 33 3 3 3 1 % 5 % 10 %, 18,, : 1979 2006,,,, Jones and Olken ( 2005) Jones and Olken (2005), Jones and Olken (2005),,,,,, 18,,
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4 : 1327 [ 23 ],, (),2007 6 4,1975 1096 [ 24 ],,2008, [ 25 ],,,2007 9, 18 31 [ 26 ],,,2008 3, 99 114 [ 27 ], :,,2005 4, 101 105 [ 28 ],,,2007 11, 91 103 [ 29 ],?, (),2008 7 2, 383 398 [ 30 ],,,2004 6, 33 40 [ 31 ], :,,2005 1 1, 83 96 [ 32 ],,,2007 7, 36 50 [ 33 ] Zhuravskaya, E., Incentives to Provide Local Public Goods : Fiscal Federalism, Russian Style, J ournal of Public Economics, 2000, 76 (3), 337 368. Provincial Governorsπ Turnovers and Economic Growth : Evidence from China XIANBIN WAN G XIAN XIAN G XU XUN L I ( S un Yat2sen U ni versit y ) Abstract Chinaπs special personnel system, combined with its fiscal system, provides provincial governors powerf ul incentives to promote local economic growth. Using panel data with governor2province matches in the period 1979 2006, we find that the turnover of local
1328 ( ) 8 governors result s in fluctuations in the local economy, and remarkably slows economic growth in the year of a turnover. The degree of slowdown depends on several factors, such as the f requency of turnovers and the ages of related governors. mostly for short2term and do not affect long2run growth trends. JEL Classif ication O17, R58, H11 However, the negative effect s are