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4 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 6 ( m u t u a l fund) 100 8 500 (S&P500) 80

1 5 1 9 7 7 ~ 1 9 9 7 2 0 500 50 4 25 1997 1998 11 90 ( 500 1 4 ) 1 0 500 ( 8 )

6 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1 0 0

1 7 (Wa rren Buffett Wa y)

8 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 6 5 ~ 1 0 ( )

1 9 1 5 ~ 10 3 1 0 ~ 1 5

1 5 10 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy (John Maynard Keynes) 1934 ( P h i l i p F i s h e r ) 50 (Common Stocks and Uncommon P ro f i t s) (Paths to Wealth Thro u g h Common Stocks) 1929

1 11 3 ~ 4 10 75 1958 4 0 91 (Ken Fisher)

1 0 12 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 10 10 10 (Kelly Optimization Model) ( 6 ) 1963 ( A m e r i c a n Express) 50 60 (Omaha)

1 13 1 9 6 3 65 3 40 1 300 5 2 2 000 ( 5 ) 10 ~ 20 10 10 20 5

14 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 3 (Charlie Munger) (Berkshire Hathaway)

1 15 60 70 60 3 ( 7 )

16 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy ( ) 4 ( 1 0 ~ 1 5 ) 5 ( )

1 17 5 0 1995 ( L e g g Mason Focus Tr u s t ) 2 15 ( ) [ 1 ( S e q u o i a F u n d ) 3 ] 4 (Latticework of models) 1995 (University of Southern California School of Business) (Guilford Babcock) ( O I D )

18 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy

1 19

20 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy

22 2 0 1 9 2 9 2 1973 ~ 1974 1929 2 1 9 7 3 ~ 1 9 7 4 60

2 23 11 ( C o l u m - bia University) (Benjamin Graham) (The Intelligent Investor) ( B u ffett Falk & Company) 1952

24 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1 9 5 4 ( G r a h a m - N e w m a n ) 7 100 1 25 1962 1969 12 (Dow Jones Industrial Av e r a g e ) 1 0 10 22 (Bill Ruane)

2 25 ( 3 ) 1 9 5 2 3 (Journal of Finance) (University of Chicago) ( H a r r y M a r k o w i t z ) 14 4 ( ) 3

5 0 26 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1 9 5 9 (P o rtfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investment)

2 27 ( ) ( 1 00 ) 2 100 ( ) ( ) 7

28 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 10 (Bill Sharpe) (RAND Institute) ( U C L A ) 1963

2 29 ( ) β β β 1. 0 β 2. 0 80 β 0. 8 β 1. 0 β 1. 0 1 ( C A P M ) β

30 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy (The Journal of Portfolio Management) ( P e t e r Bernstein) 1 0 (Eugene Fama) 60 (Benoit Mandelbrot)

2 31 1 9 6 3 (The Journal of Business) (The Financial Analysts Journal) (The Institutional Investor) ( )

32 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 50 60 1974 1973 ~ 1974 1 974 1 9 7 3 ~ 1 9 7 4

2 33 (Stanford Law School) (The Washington Post) 1 974 8 000 100 4 β 8 000 4 000 4

34 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy ( ) ( ) 1. 2. 3. 4.

2 35 1 0

36 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy ( ) 5 25

2 37 1. 2. 3. ( E M T )

38 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy

2 39

3 1 6 0 1 3 0 B a ff e t t v i l l e

42 2 0 1927 ( D a v i d L. D o d d ) 1929 1934 (Security Analysis)

3 43 5 65 50 (Columbia School of Business) 1984 (The Superinvestors of Graham-and- Doddsville)

44 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 2. 2 5 1 10 22 1 024 10 215 100 2. 25 215 40

3 45 β 1984 15 ( K i n g s College) (Chest Fund)

46 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1 9 2 0 1 9 1 9 1927 1 9 3 4 ( 1 ) 4 1. 2. 3.

3 47 3-1 ( ) 1 9 2 8 0. 0 0. 1 1 9 2 9 0. 8 6. 6 1 9 3 0-3 2. 4-2 0. 3 1 9 3 1-2 4. 6-2 5. 0 1 9 3 2 4 4. 8-5. 8 1 9 3 3 3 5. 1 2 1. 5 1 9 3 4 3 3. 1-0. 7 1 9 3 5 4 4. 3 5. 3 1 9 3 6 5 6. 0 1 0. 2 1 9 3 7 8. 5-0. 5 1 9 3 8-4 0. 1-1 6. 1 1 9 3 9 1 2. 9-7. 2 1 9 4 0-1 5. 6-1 2. 9 1 9 4 1 3 3. 5 1 2. 5 1 9 4 2-0. 9 0. 8 1 9 4 3 5 3. 9 1 5. 6 1 9 4 4 1 4. 5 5. 4 1 9 4 5 1 4. 6 0. 8 1 3. 2-0. 5 2 9. 2 1 2. 4-4 0. 1-2 5. 0 5 6. 0 2 1. 5 ( ) 3-1 18 13. 2

48 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy ( 1930 1938 1940 ) 2. 5

3 49 1 9 5 6 2 10. 5 7 100 10 13 22 13 1965 2 600 1957 1 969 ( 3-2 ) 22 3-2

50 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 3-2 ( ) 1 9 5 7 1 0. 4-8. 4 1 9 5 8 4 0. 9 3 8. 5 1 9 5 9 2 5. 9 2 0. 0 1 9 6 0 2 2. 8-6. 2 1 9 6 1 4 5. 9 2 2. 4 1 9 6 2 1 3. 9-7. 6 1 9 6 3 3 8. 7 2 0. 6 1 9 6 4 2 7. 8 1 8. 6 1 9 6 5 4 7. 2 1 4. 2 1 9 6 6 2 0. 4-1 5. 6 1 9 6 7 3 5. 9 1 9. 0 1 9 6 8 5 8. 8 7. 7 1 9 6 9 6. 8-11. 6 3 0. 4 8. 6 1 5. 7 1 6. 7 6. 8-1 5. 6 5 8. 8 3 8. 5 ( )

3 51 1 9 6 0 (Harvard Law School) (Los Angeles) 3-3 3-3 ( ) 1 9 6 2 3 0. 1-7. 6 1 9 6 3 7 1. 7 2 0. 6 1 9 6 4 4 9. 7 1 8. 7 1 9 6 5 8. 4 1 4. 2 1 9 6 6 1 2. 4-1 5. 8 ( )

52 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy ( ) ( ) 1 9 6 7 5 6. 2 1 9. 0 1 9 6 8 4 0. 4 7. 7 1 9 6 9 2 8. 3-11. 6 1 9 7 0-0. 1 8. 7 1 9 7 1 2 5. 4 9. 8 1 9 7 2 8. 3 1 8. 2 1 9 7 3-3 1. 9-1 3. 1 1 9 7 4-3 1. 5-2 3. 1 1 9 7 5 7 3. 2 4 4. 4 2 4. 3 6. 4 3 3. 0 1 8. 5-3 1. 9-2 3. 1 7 3. 2 4 4. 4 ( ) ( ) 18 1952

3 53 1969 50 I B M ( X e r o x ) (Rick Cuniff) 6 1 0 90

54 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 3-4 1971 ~ 1997 500 1 4. 5 19. 6 ( ) 1 6. 4 20. 6

3 55 3-4 ( ) 500 ( ) 1 9 7 2 3. 7 1 8. 9 1 9 7 3-2 4. 0-1 4. 8 1 9 7 4-1 5. 7-2 6. 4 1 9 7 5 6 0. 5 3 7. 2 1 9 7 6 7 2. 3 2 3. 6 1 9 7 7 1 9. 9-7. 4 1 9 7 8 2 3. 9 6. 4 1 9 7 9 1 2. 1 1 8. 2 1 9 8 0 1 2. 6 3 2. 3 1 9 8 1 2 1. 5-5. 0 1 9 8 2 3 1. 2 2 1. 4 1 9 8 3 2 7. 3 2 2. 4 1 9 8 4 1 8. 5 6. 1 1 9 8 5 2 8. 0 3 1. 6 1 9 8 6 1 3. 3 1 8. 6 1 9 8 7 7. 4 5. 2 1 9 8 8 11. 1 1 6. 5 1 9 8 9 2 7. 9 3 1. 6 1 9 9 0-3. 8-3. 1 1 9 9 1 4 0. 0 3 0. 3 1 9 9 2 9. 4 7. 6 1 9 9 3 1 0. 8 1 0. 0 1 9 9 4 3. 3 1. 4 1 9 9 5 4 1. 4 3 7. 5 1 9 9 6 2 1. 7 2 2. 9 1 9 9 7 4 2. 3 3 3. 4 1 9. 6 1 4. 5

56 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy ( ) ( ) 500 ( ) 2 0. 6 1 6. 4-2 4. 0-2 6. 4 7 2. 3 3 7. 5 1 9 9 6 ( G E I C O ) 7 1951 1 (Lorimer Davidson) (The Commercial and Financial Chro n i c a l e)

3 57 1951 65 1 7 0 1980 33 4 570 1979 (Stein Roe & Farnham) ( Western Asset Management)

58 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1 0 1 9 8 0 ~ 1 9 9 6 24. 7 17. 8 ( 3-5 ) (

3 59 ) 5 5 5 5 1. 2 3-5 ( ) 500 ( ) 1 9 8 0 2 3. 7 3 2. 3 1 9 8 1 5. 4-5. 0

60 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy ( ) ( ) 500 ( ) 1982 45. 8 21. 4 1983 36. 0 22. 4 1984 21. 8 6. 1 1985 45. 8 31. 6 1986 38. 7 18. 6 1987-10. 0 5. 1 1988 30. 0 16. 6 1989 36. 1 31. 7 1990-9. 1-31. 1 1991 57. 1 30. 5 1992 10. 7 7. 6 1993 5. 1 10. 1 1994 13. 3 1. 3 1995 39. 7 37. 6 1996 29. 2 37. 6 24. 7 17. 8 19. 5 14. 3-10. 0-5. 0 57. 1 37. 6 3 000 1 200 1979 ~ 1986 1 200 1. 2

3 61 1. 3 000 2 5 0 2. 3 000 100 3. 3 000 50 4. 3 000 15 10 18 3-1 3-2 500 10 3-1 13. 8 500 15. 2 500 4 /

62 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy

3 63

64 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1. 250 16. 11. 4 2. 1 00 18. 3 10. 0 3. 5 0 19. 1 8. 6 4. 1 5 26. 6 4. 4 500 ( 18 ) ( 3-2 ) 1. 2. 10 3 000 1 5 808 3 000 5 0 549 3 000 1 00 337 3 000 2 50 63

3 65 1 5 4 1 250 50 1 2 33 ( 1965 ~ 1997 ) 24. 9 500 ( 3-6 ) 2. 9 30

66 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 3-6 ( ) 5 0 0 ( ) 1 9 6 5 2 3. 8 1 0. 0 1 9 6 6 2 0. 3-11. 7 1 9 6 7 11. 0 3 0. 9 1 9 6 8 1 9. 0 11. 0 1 9 6 9 1 6. 2-8. 4 1 9 7 0 1 2. 0 3. 9 1 9 7 1 1 6. 4 1 4. 6 1 9 7 2 2 1. 7 1 8. 9 1 9 7 3 4. 7-1 4. 8 1 9 7 4 5. 5-2 6. 4 1 9 7 5 2 1. 9 3 7. 2 1 9 7 6 5 9. 3 2 3. 6 1 9 7 7 3 1. 9-7. 4 1 9 7 8 2 4. 0 6. 4 1 9 7 9 3 5. 7 1 8. 2 1 9 8 0 1 9. 3 3 2. 3 1 9 8 1 3 1. 4-5. 0 1 9 8 2 4 0. 0 2 1. 4 1 9 8 3 3 2. 3 2 2. 4 1 9 8 4 1 3. 6 6. 1 1 9 8 5 4 8. 2 3 1. 6 1 9 8 6 2 6. 1 1 8. 6 1 9 8 7 1 9. 5 5. 1 1 9 8 8 2 0. 1 1 6. 6 1 9 8 9 4 4. 4 3 1. 7 1 9 9 0 7. 4-3. 1 1 9 9 1 3 9. 6 3 0. 5

3 67 ( ) 500 ( ) ( ) 1992 20. 3 7. 6 1993 14. 3 10. 1 1994 13. 0 1. 3 1995 43. 1 37. 6 1996 31. 8 23. 0 1997 34. 1 33. 4 24. 9 12. 9 13. 0 16. 4 4. 7-26. 4 59. 3 37. 6 ( S e e s Candy Shop) ( N e b r a s k a Furniture Mart) ( B a ffalo News) (Flight Safety) (Scott Fetzer) 1988 ~ 1997 ( 3-7 )

1 68 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 10 3-7 2 500 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 9 8 8 11. 9 11. 0 1 6. 0 1 6. 6 1 9 8 9 5 3. 1 3 8. 3 3 2. 3 3 1. 7 1 9 9 0 2. 7-9. 8-3. 9-3. 1 1 9 9 1 5 5. 5 5 2. 7 3 3. 5 3 0. 4 1 9 9 2 2 4. 2 3 1. 1 11. 4 7. 6 1 9 9 3 11. 7 1 9. 5 11. 6 1 0. 1 1 9 9 4 1 5. 3 8. 0 2. 6 1. 3 1 9 9 5 4 3. 6 4 3. 2 3 8. 3 3 7. 6 1 9 9 6 3 7. 5 2 9. 6 2 4. 0 2 3. 0 1 9 9 7 3 8. 5 4 6. 1 3 5. 4 3 3. 4 29. 4 27. 0 20. 1 18. 9 10 3-7 29. 4 500 1 8. 9

3 69 1 9 8 8 20. 7 1991 ~ 1997 34. 2 4 3 ( A A - 1 ~ A - 10 ) 1 988 ~ 1997 10 2 34. 7 18. 8 27. 0 2. 5 50 2 ( A A - 1 ~ A - 10 50 )

70 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 2 2 0. 1 1. 2 3 50 9 15 50 100 250 1984

3 71 50 35 15

74 ( )

4 75 (Joseph Nocera) 1 997 (F o rt - u n e) (M o r n i n g s t a r) (Don Phillips)

76 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 3 (Wall Street Journal) (B a rro n s)

4 77 1 9 8 6 (Eugene Shahan) (U.S. Trust) 3 5 4-1

78 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 4-1 18 6 33 13 0 0 14 5 36 27 10 37 17 4 24 ( ) 18 1 / 3 3 18 ( 4-3 ) 4-2 3 0 3 4 1 500 4-3 -3 8-3 7-3 6-1 5 ( )

4 79 37 ( 4-1 ) 7 0 1974 36 1976 50 1978 220 50 6 16 36 1972 1974 37 1 4 2 15 ( 4-4 ) 15 3 000 8 08 10 ( 1987 ~ 1996 ) 808 97 4 5 6 7

1 3 80 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 4-4 ( 15 )10 ( 1987 ~ 1996 ) 500 ( ) / 1 0 ~ 0 0 0. 0 0 9 ~ 2 1 0. 1 2 8 ~ 2 2 0 2. 4 8 7 ~ 3 1 2 8 1 5. 8 4 6 ~ 4 2 7 2 3 3. 6 6 5 ~ 5 2 6 1 3 2. 3 0 4 ~ 6 1 0 5 1 3. 0 0 3 ~ 7 2 1 2. 6 0 2 ~ 8 0 0. 0 0 1 ~ 9 0 0. 0 0 0 ~ 1 0 0 0. 0 0

4 81 1 ( ) (Southern Californal School of Business Administration) (Mark Carhart) (Burton Malkiel) (John F. Kennedy School of Government at H a r v a r d ) [ (Darryll Hendricks) (Jayendu Patel) ( R i c h a r d

82 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy Z e c k h a u s e r ) ] 1 5 (Leonard Stern School of Business at New York University) (Stephen Brown) ( Ya l e s School of Management) ( William Goetzmann)

4 83 ( Wo r l d Book) (Fechheimer) ( ) ( )

84 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1 200 ( B B - 1 ~ B - 5 ) 3 0. 131 ~ 0. 360 ( 0. 360 36 ) 5 0. 374 ~ 0. 599 10 0. 593 ~ 0. 695 18 0. 688

4 85 6 5 ( ) ( ) (Federal Home Loan Mortgage) ( G i l l e t t e ) (The Washington Post Company)

86 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1997 7. 43 ( G A A P ) ( ) 10 1965 ( ) ( ) ( )

4 87 ( ) 99 500 500 500 500

88 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy / (Capital Cities/ABC) [ (The Walt Disney Company) ] ( Tom Murphy) / / ( 7 )

4 89 2 0 N B A 1.

90 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 2. 100 ~ 200 100 200 10 ( 10 ) 10 ( C h i c a g o ) 3 560 10 20 100 1 4

4 91

(Robert Jeffrey) 92 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy (Robert Arnott) 1 0. 66 ( 36 ) 1. 66 20 25 200 13 000 1

4 93 20 69. 2 35. 6 20 1 1. 20 25 200 2. 20 69. 2

94 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1 ~ 2 5 50 25 80 10 0 ~ 2 0

4 95

96 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy

98 1 1994 ( ) (economic value added, EVA )

5 99 1 0 0 (John Burr Wi l l i a m ) (The Theory of Investment Va l u e) 60 100 30

100 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1988 9 15 9 15

5 101 ( / ) 1 0 5 11 9 5 4 15 10 10 5 15 5 7 1 0 15 ( ) 9 5 6 5 1

102 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 7 10 3 (New Yo r k consulting firm) (Stern Stewart) (Eli Lilly) ( AT & T )

5 103 + 60 4 15 9 60 15 + 40 9 = 12. 6 15 1 2. 6 10 1 1 1 1

104 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 15 1 15 1

5 105 1995 ( ) ( 1 ) ( 2 ) ( 3 )

106 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy ( 1 ) ( 2 ( 3 )

5 107

108 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy

5 109 ( ) 20

110 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy ( ) ( William Miller III) 1982 (Baltimore)

5 111 1982 ~ 1990 (Ernie Kiehne) (Johns Hopkins Graduate School) ( William James) (P r a g m a t i s m) (John Deweys) (Essays in Experimental Logic) 8 0 9 0 90

112 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1991 ~ 1998 8 500 1998 (Eric Savitz) 120 90 30 ~ 40 10 (Amy Arnott)

5 113 90 (Jim Cramer) (The Street.com) (I n v e s t o r s Business Daily) (Dell Computer) (American Online) (Microsoft)

114 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy ( L u c e n t ) T h e S t r e e t. c o m / ( ) 1996 4 6 40 1996 15

5 115 ( 2 7. 5 ) 11

116 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1 9 8 2 9 1 ( )

5 117 15 30 110 175 (General Motors) ( C h a s e ) ( Toys R U s ) ( We s t e r n D i g i t a l ) 8 6 12 12

118 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy T h e S t r e e t. c o m 1 9 9 8

5 119 (Sadra Ward) 1998 10

120 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 100 1 000 10 000

5 121 (Lisa Rapuano)

122 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy

5 123 (Peter Lynch) 54 3 7 0 (Michael Mauboussin) ( C r é d i t Suisse First Boston)

124 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 70

5 125

128 10

6 129 (Chris Stavrou) 99 9 9 9 801 (Richard Feynman)

130 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 100 250 5 000 1 3 ( ) ( 250 17. 6 5 000 5. 7 13 ) /

6 131 1 1. 0 0 0 ~ 1. 0 1654 (Blaise Pascal) (Pierre de Fermat) (Chevalier de Mere)

1 6 5 4 132 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy ( ) (Thomas Bayes) 1701 100 78

6 133 ( ) 6 1 / 6 16 1 / 3 3 3 4 1 / 2 50

134 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1 1 / 2 1 / 2 70 30 3 / 10 10

6 135 5 1 / 2 2 1 10 1

1 0 1 136 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy

6 137 40 30 ( ( ) (Abbott Company) 1 8 6 30 (Costello Company) 27

138 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy (Federal Trade Commission) 90 3 10 9 2. 7 0. 9 1. 8 ( 3 9 0 9 1 0 = 1. 8 ) 27 6. 6 ( 1. 8 27 ) 6 13. 2

6 139 ( We l l s F a rgo) 1990 1 0 50 2. 87 5 7. 8 8 10 86

140 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1969 ~ 1979 ( I l l i n o i s National Bank and Trust Company) (Gene Abegg) (Carl Reich a r d t ) 1983

6 141 ( 10 ) 3 1 0 48 10 1991 ( ) 30 10

142 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 50 2 1

6 143 1 0 0 (Roberto Goizueta) 1 9 8 8 50 ~ 70 1 9 8 8 ~ 1 9 9 8 1 0 30 1 998 130 2 1 21 (B e a t the Dealer: A Winning Strategy for the Game of Tw e n t y - o n e)

144 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy (Adward O. Thorp) 10 10 A 1 + 1 (Claude Shannon) 40 1948 (J. L. Kelly) 1956

6 145 2p- 1 =X (X) 2 1 55 10 7 40 10 100 ( 1 ) ( 2 ) 21 1 000 24 1 24 21 2

2 4 146 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 2 1 1 1 21

6 147 ( ) 70 5 5 10 ( 55 ) 5 ( ) 50 25

148 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1. 2. 3. 4. 1967 (National Indemnity Company) (General Re C o r p o r a t i o n ) 1 000

6 149 1998 160 ( ) 20 x 10 x

150 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy (Ajit Jain) I B M (McKinsey Consulting)

6 151 ( 4 ) 15 12

152 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 100 1 3 2 (Andrew Beyer)

6 153 ( 1 ) ( 2

154 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 6 1 / 6 50 70

6 155 X 55 Y 70 3 2

156 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1. ( 1 ) 2.

6 157 3. 4. ( )

158 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy ( )

6 159 5 0 20

162

7 163 (The Intelligent Investor)

164 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 99

7 165 60

166 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1997 ( Terrance Odean) 1 7 ( 1987 ~ 1993 ) 1 97 483 78 80 4 1 2 ( 1 ) ( 2 ) 3 1 1

7 167 1

168 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy (Richard Thaler) 90 5

7 169 (Daniel Kahneman)

170 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy (Alan Greenspan) ( )

7 171 25 5 4 0 40 70 5 35 ( ) 35 ( ) 70 5 40

172 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 50 5 0 1 3. 5 1 6

7 173 10 3 4 20 20 20 20 20 1 2

174 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 2 2 0 20 1 30 ( 1 ) ( 2 ) 9 ( 70 ) 21 2 ( 1 ) 39 21 ( 2 ) 30 ( 57 )

7 175

176 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy

7 177 (D.G. Pruitt) 30 (James Thurber) (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty) (Danny Daye) ( Villanova University) (Justin Green)

( 178 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy )

7 179 A. 1. (a) (b) 2. (a) (b) 3. (a) (b) 1. B. 2.

180 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 3. 4. C. 1. (a) (b) 2. (a) (b) 3. (a) (b) 4. (a) (b)

7 181 /

182 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1. 2.

184 4 0

8 185

186 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 16 30 ( 8-1 ) 3 1 22 8-1 ( 30 ) ( ) ( ) 1 9 8 2 6 1 3. 0 5 1 3. 9 2 1 9 8 2 1 2 1 3. 2 7 1 0. 4 1 1 9 8 3 6 1 0. 0 7 1 0. 9 8 1 9 8 3 1 2 1 0. 5 4 11. 8 7 1 9 8 4 6 11. 3 9 1 3. 6 4 1 9 8 4 1 2 1 3. 7 8 11. 5 3 1 9 8 5 6 11. 5 6 1 0. 4 4 1 9 8 5 1 2 1 0. 5 0 9. 2 7 1 9 8 6 6 9. 4 2 7. 2 8 1 9 8 6 1 2 7. 4 1 7. 4 9 1 9 8 7 6 7. 0 5 8. 5 0 1 9 8 7 1 2 8. 4 5 8. 9 8 1 9 8 8 6 8. 6 5 8. 8 5 1 9 8 9 6 9. 2 5 8. 0 4 1 9 8 9 1 2 8. 1 2 7. 9 7 1 9 9 0 6 7. 6 2 8. 4 0 1 9 9 0 1 2 8. 1 6 8. 2 4 1 9 9 1 6 7. 6 5 8. 4 1

8 187 ( ) ( 30 ) ( ) ( ) 1 9 9 1 1 2 8. 2 2 7. 3 9 1 9 9 2 6 7. 3 0 7. 7 8 1 9 9 2 1 2 7. 6 1 7. 3 9 1 9 9 3 6 7. 4 4. 6. 6 7 1 9 9 3 1 2 6. 8 4 6. 3 4 1 9 9 4 6 6. 2 6 7. 6 1 1 9 9 4 1 2 7. 3 0 7. 8 7 1 9 9 5 6 7. 9 4 6. 6 2 1 9 9 5 1 2 6. 6 0 5. 9 4 (1) 6 (2) (3) 39 9 Wall Street Journal Revised 6/30/98. 100 (Alfred Marshall)

188 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 4 0 0 (Ilya Prigogine) (Karl Popper) (Issac Newton)

8 189 (James Clark Maxwell) (Richard Lewontin) ( H e r a c l i - t i a n s )

190 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 2 0 0 (Brian Arthur) (Sangre de Cristo Mountains) (Santa Fe Institute)

8 191 1984 ( G e o rge Cowan) (Los Alamos Laboratory)

192 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 1 1987 20 10 (Kenneth Arrow) (Philip Anderson) 10 ( B o o l e a n ) 10

8 193 ( )

194 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy (El Farol) (Citigroup) ( B e l f a s t ) 100 10 15 1 8 8 3 6 6 4 5 7 6 6 7 5 6 8 8 3 7 ( 37 ) 10 ( 55 ) 4 ( 62 )

8 195 60 100 60 100 (Merrill Lynch) 1 9 8 9 23 ( 1 )( ) ( 2

196 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy ( 3 ) ( 4 ) ( 5 5 ( 6 ) ( 7 ( ) ( 8 ) ( 9 ) ( 10 ) ( 11 ( 12 ) ( 13 ) ( 14 ( 15 ) ( 16 )β ( 17 ) ( 18 ) ( 19 ) ( 20 ) ( 21 ) ( 22 ) ( 23 ) 9 10 ( 8-2 ) 1997 1989 1998 1989 12

8 197 8-2 9 8-3 1996 ~ 1997 5 8-2 ( 1989 ~ 1997 ) 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 0 1 9 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 2 4 4 4 1 4 3 2 2 2 2 4 5 3 3 4 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 3 3 4 2 2 2 5 5 3 4 3 1 5 5 1 2 3 4 5

198 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy

8 199 (Richard Bernstein) 60 100 6

200 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy (John Holland)

8 201 (John Casti) 17 (Storage and Stability) (World Commodities and World Curre n c i e s)

3 0 202 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy

8 203 (James Gleick) (New York Ti m e s) 1991 ( J o h n Reed)

204 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 5 0 0 60 ( 8-4 ) 1 964 500 5. 5 16. 5

8 205 6. 9 12. 0 6 0 37 19 1 / 4 8-4 500 1 9 6 4 ( ) 1 9 9 6 ( ) 2. 0 1 4. 6 2. 3 1 0. 7 9. 0 1 2. 8 6. 3 9. 7 1 0. 8 2. 7 1 7. 8 8. 9 2. 6 1. 6 5. 5 1 2. 0 1 6. 5 6. 9 8. 0 9. 9 1 9. 2 1 0. 2 1 0 0. 0 1 0 0. 0

206 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 6 0

8 207 ( G e o rge Johnson) (F i re in the Mind)

3 0 208 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 508 2. 8 17. 4

8 209 3 0

9.400

212 1 9 9 6 (Stephen Jay Gould) (Full House:The S p read of Excellence from Plato to Darw i n). 400 1 901 ~ 1930 30 9. 400 68 ( Ted Williams) 1941. 406

9.400 213. 400 (Capital Ideas: The Impro b a b l e Origins of Modern Wall Stre e t) (Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk). 400 5 00 6 70 8 9 0. 400

214 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy. 4 0 0. 4 0 0. 400. 400. 4 0 0

9.400 215 1 5 10 20 10

216 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 40 5 0 100 10 15 8 30 95 2 0

9.400 217

218 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 10

9.400 219 (S.J. Simon) (Why You Lose at Bridge) 21

220 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy

9.400 221 1 9 9 7 6 1 800 3 ( )

222 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy ( Ty Cobb) 70. 400 (The Science of Hitting) 7 7. 400. 230

9.400 223 20 20 (Wa rren Buffett Port f o l i o) 200

224 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 5 M B A

9.400 225 3 0 ( ) ( )

226 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy (Thomas Kuhn) 1996 1 962 (The Stru c t u re of Scientific Revolution) 20 100

9.400 227 5 - ( )

228 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy

9.400 229 (Charles Ellis) (Greenwich Partners) (Winning the Loser s Game) 1976

230 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy ( 9-1 ) ( 9-2 ) ( 9-3 ) 9-1 (Ron Chernow)

9.400 231 9-2 9-3 /

232 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy 2 0 [ (Henry Emerson) ]

9.400 233 (Bertrand Russell)

236 A - 1 ~ A - 10 1988 ~ 1997 3

A 237

238 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy

A 239

240 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy

A 241

242 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy

A 243

244 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy

A 245

246 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy

248 1 200 18 1 200 ( ) ( ) E x c e l B - 1 ~ B - 5 5 3 5 7 10 18 B - 1 3 1 200 1978 ~ 1980 0. 275 27 1978 ~ 1995 3 0. 131 ~ 0. 360 B - 2 5 0. 374 ~ 0. 599 7 ( B - 3 ) 0. 473 0. 670

B 249 10 ( B - 4 ) 0. 593 ~ 0. 695 18 ( B - 5 ) 0. 688 B - 4 1979 ~ 1988 0. 688 1987 ~ 1996 0. 598 1987 B-1 3 1 9 7 8 ~ 1 9 8 0 1 9 7 9 ~ 1 9 8 1 1 200 0.275 877 2 1 9 7 9 ~ 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 0 ~ 1 9 8 2 1 200 0.262 982 9 1 9 8 0 ~ 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 1 ~ 1 9 8 3 1 200 0.256 829 4 1 9 8 1 ~ 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 2 ~ 1 9 8 4 1 200 0.279 702 5 1 9 8 2 ~ 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 3 ~ 1 9 8 5 1 200 0.352 904 8 1 9 8 3 ~ 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 4 ~ 1 9 8 6 1 200 0.341 848 7 1 9 8 4 ~ 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 5 ~ 1 9 8 7 1 200 0.346 062 0 1 9 8 5 ~ 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 6 ~ 1 9 8 8 1 200 0.290 688 8 1 9 8 6 ~ 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 7 ~ 1 9 8 9 1 200 0.231 267 0 1 9 8 7 ~ 1 9 8 9 1 9 8 8 ~ 1 9 9 0 1 200 0.360 674 8 1 9 8 8 ~ 1 9 9 0 1 9 8 9 ~ 1 9 9 1 1 200 0.169 446 8 1 9 8 9 ~ 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 0 ~ 1 9 9 2 1 200 0.131 529 5 1 9 9 0 ~ 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 1 ~ 1 9 9 3 1 200 0.157 797 3 1 9 9 1 ~ 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 2 ~ 1 9 9 4 1 200 0.147 986 5 1 9 9 2 ~ 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 3 ~ 1 9 9 5 1 200 0.250 998 0 1 9 9 3 ~ 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 4 ~ 1 9 9 6 1 200 0.263 438 8

250 The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy B-2 5 1978 ~ 1982 1979 ~ 1983 1 200 0.433 856 1 1979 ~ 1983 1980 ~ 1984 1 200 0.541 774 8 1980 ~ 1984 1981 ~ 1985 1 200 0.599 785 1 1981 ~ 1985 1982 ~ 1986 1 200 0.570 443 8 1982 ~ 1986 1983 ~ 1987 1 200 0.586 231 6 1983 ~ 1987 1984 ~ 1988 1 200 0.568 384 1 1984 ~ 1988 1985 ~ 1989 1 200 0.507 487 1 1985 ~ 1989 1986 ~ 1990 1 200 0.497 315 8 1986 ~ 1990 1987 ~ 1991 1 200 0.509 359 0 1987 ~ 1991 1988 ~ 1992 1 200 0.546 795 2 1988 ~ 1992 1989 ~ 1993 1 200 0.403 887 2 1989 ~ 1993 1990 ~ 1994 1 200 0.386 160 4 1990 ~ 1994 1991 ~ 1995 1 200 0.375 183 5 1991 ~ 1995 1992 ~ 1996 1 200 0.374 785 3 B-3 7 1978 ~ 1984 1979 ~ 1985 1 200 0.624 116 1 1979 ~ 1985 1980 ~ 1986 1 200 0.670 590 1 1980 ~ 1986 1981 ~ 1987 1 200 0.650 843 6 1981 ~ 1987 1982 ~ 1988 1 200 0.602 655 8 1982 ~ 1988 1983 ~ 1989 1 200 0.592 577 8 1983 ~ 1989 1984 ~ 1990 1 200 0.598 844 1 1984 ~ 1990 1985 ~ 1991 1 200 0.630 244 6 1985 ~ 1991 1986 ~ 1992 1 200 0.603 508 4 1986 ~ 1992 1987 ~ 1993 1 200 0.534 091 3 1987 ~ 1993 1988 ~ 1994 1 200 0.558 314 3

B 251 ( ) 1988 ~ 1994 1989 ~ 1995 1 200 0.482 094 3 1989 ~ 1995 1990 ~ 1996 1 200 0.473 750 7 B-4 10 1978 ~ 1987 1979 ~ 1988 1 200 0.688 624 7 1979 ~ 1988 1980 ~ 1989 1 200 0.695 480 8 1980 ~ 1989 1981 ~ 1990 1 200 0.669 578 1 1981 ~ 1990 1982 ~ 1991 1 200 0.674 307 8 1982 ~ 1991 1983 ~ 1992 1 200 0.680 371 6 1983 ~ 1992 1984 ~ 1993 1 200 0.622 940 6 1984 ~ 1993 1985 ~ 1994 1 200 0.595 041 4 1985 ~ 1994 1986 ~ 1995 1 200 0.593 891 1 1986 ~ 1995 1987 ~ 1996 1 200 0.598 262 6 B-5 18 1978 ~ 1995 1979 ~ 1996 1 200 0.688 975 2