untitled

2014 2014 20147.2~7.5% 2013 12 QE 2014 QE 2014 2013 2014 GDP 2014 110 2014 010-63152104 010-83168383 010-63180126 3 3

2013 QE 2013 6 14 7~11 GDP 2014 QE 20140.5%~1.0% GDP 2014 127.5% 2014 1 2013 11 9 ~12 15 60 7 7 4

2014 QE 2014 6 QE 1.1 80 1979 80 90 2003 WTO 10 30 1.1.1 2013 1. 1.1.1~ 1.1.3 20.9% 20.1% 20.2% 10 20.1% 10 10.1% 200510 GDP GDP1. 2. 3. GDP 1.1.4 2001 GDP 1.1.5 1.1.6 5

1.1.1 : % 35.00 31.00 27.00 23.00 19.00 1.1.2 : 4,000.00 3,500.00 3,000.00 2,500.00 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,000.00 2006-09 2007-09 2008-09 2009-09 2010-09 2011-09 2012-09 2013-09 2009-03 2009-07 2009-11 2010-03 2010-07 2010-11 2011-03 2011-07 2011-11 2012-03 2012-07 2012-11 2013-03 2013-07 2013-11 Wind wind 1.1.3 1.1.4 GDP 20 GDP 20.00% 15 15.00% 10 10.00% 5.00% 5 0.00% 2005-01 2005-04 2005-07 2005-10 2006-01 2006-04 2006-07 2006-10 2007-01 2007-04 2007-07 2007-10 2008-01 2008-04 2008-07 2008-10 2009-01 2009-04 2009-07 2009-10 2010-01 2010-04 2010-07 2010-10 2011-01 2011-04 2011-07 2011-10 2012-01 2012-04 2012-07 2012-10 2013-01 2013-04 2013-07 2013-10 Mar -01 Feb -02 Jan-03 Dec -03 Nov -04 Oct -05 Sep-06 Aug -07 Jul-08 Jun-09 May -10 Apr -11 Mar -12 Feb -13 Wind 1.1.5 wind 1.1.6 M2 GDP: 15.00 32.00 M2: % 12.00 32.00 22.00 9.00 17.00 6.00 12.00 2001-03 2002-03 2003-03 2004-03 2005-03 2006-03 2007-03 2008-03 2009-03 2010-03 2011-03 2012-03 2013-03 2001-01 2003-01 2005-01 2007-01 2009-01 2011-01 2013-01 Wind wind M2 10 48% 6

4~12 41% 7 9 1.1.7 1.1.8 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 2012-05 26% 27% 2012-07 56% 54% 50% 44% 44% 44% 43% 40% 2012-09 2012-11 2013-01 2013-03 28% 2013-05 56% 58% 56% 50% 47% 47% 44% 45% 2013-07 2013-09 2013-11 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% : : : 2010 08 2010 09 2010 10 2010 11 2010 12 2011 01 2011 02 2011 03 2011 04 2011 05 2011 06 2011 07 2011 08 2011 09 2011 10 2011 11 2011 12 2012 01 2012 02 2012 03 2012 04 2012 05 2012 06 2012 07 2012 08 2012 09 2012 10 2012 11 2012 12 2013 01 2013 02 2013 03 2013 04 2013 05 2013 06 2013 07 2013 08 2013 09 2013 10 2013-11 Wind wind 1.1.9 1.1.10 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00-5.00 70 70 70 70 2011-03 2011-05 2011-07 2011-09 2011-11 2012-01 2012-03 2012-05 2012-07 2012-09 2012-11 2013-01 18.70 8.80 10.20 7.20 2013-03 2013-05 2013-07 2013-09 80.00 40.00 70.00 38.00 36.00 60.00 34.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 2008-10 2009-10 2010-10 2011-10 2012-10 32.00 30.00 28.00 26.00 24.00 22.00 20.00 2013-10 Wind wind 1.1.8 1.1.9 70 1.1.10 1.1.4 1.1.5 1.1.6 1.1.7 201050% 7

Feder 1999 2. 2010 6 NDF 2011 NDF 1.1.11 NDF 1.1.12 NDF- : :NDF:12 0.2000 6.8000 0.1000 6.6000 0.0000 6.4000-0.1000 6.2000-0.2000 6.0000-0.3000 2010-06-01 2011-06-01 2012-06-01 2013-06-01 8,000.00 6,000.00 4,000.00 2,000.00 0.00-2,000.00-4,000.00 2006-08 2007-08 2008-08 2009-08 2010-08 2011-08 2012-08 2013-08 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00-200.00-400.00-600.00-800.00 Wind wind NDF 2~3 2%~3% 1.1.2 8

1. (NDF- ) 10 7.78 M2 M2 13.5% 13.5~14.0%M2 13.0% 1.1.13 CPI 96% 4 CPI 2 2015 CPI 11 12 CPI 11 CPI 3.3% 1.1.13 1.1.14 300 : : : : 3.3000 200 3.2500 100 0 2004-07 2005-03 2005-11 2006-07 2007-03 2007-11 2008-07 2009-03 2009-11 2010-07 2011-03 2011-11 2012-07 2013-03 2013-11 Wind wind 2. 20 1996 2012 6 0.8 1.1 3.3%3.25% 9

1.1.1 1996.06 1997.06 10% 20% 1998 40% 50% 300010 1999 2000 300 2002.03 7 2003 11 [0.9 1.7] 2004.01 [0.9 2] 2004.10 2007.01 Shibor 2012.06 0.8 1.1 2012.07 0.7 1.1.15 2011 SHIBOR 2012 61.1 SHIBOR 1.1.16 1.1.17 1.1.15 SHIBOR 1.1.16 2012 1.8000 1.6000 1.4000 1.2000 1.0000 0.8000 0.6000 0.4000 0.2000 SHIBOR:1-1 21.00 20.00 19.00 18.00 17.00 16.00 15.00 22.50 22.00 21.50 21.00 20.50 20.00 19.50 : ::1 21.00 20.00 19.00 18.00 17.00 16.00 15.00 14.00 0.0000 14.00 2007-03-18 2008-03-18 2009-03-18 2010-03-18 2011-03-18 2012-03-18 Wind wind 10

11 1.1.17 1.1.18 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 : 2.50 3.50 4.50 5.50 6.50 7.50 2011-01-17 2011-02-17 2011-03-17 2011-04-17 2011-05-17 2011-06-17 2011-07-17 2011-08-17 2011-09-17 2011-10-17 2011-11-17 2011-12-17 2012-01-17 2012-02-17 2012-03-17 2012-04-17 2012-05-17 2012-06-17 2012-07-17 2012-08-17 2012-09-17 2012-10-17 2012-11-17 2012-12-17 2013-01-17 2013-02-17 2013-03-17 2013-04-17 2013-05-17 2013-06-17 2013-07-17 2013-08-17 2013-09-17 2013-10-17 2013-11-17 AAA 1 AA 1 AAA 1 AA+ 1 AA- 1 Wind wind 1.1.18~1.1.20 6QE 1.1.19 1.1.20 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 : 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 : : : : : Wind Wind 1.1.3 1. 1.1.21 90 2004~2005 60% 50%~60%

12 40%~50% 30%-40% 20%~30% 20% 1978 ~1990 2004~2005 1.1.22IMF 2012 2008/09 80% 60% 78.9%66.8% 1.1.21 1.1.22 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00 60.00 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 % 50 60 70 80 90 100 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Wind Wind 1978~2012 1978~1990 1991~2004 2005 2001-2012 35%~39% 2002 2010 80% 2012 60% 3~5 1.1.23 1.1.24 2011 PMI

1.1.23 1.1.24 : : 100-200 <100 4,500.00 4,000.00 3,500.00 3,000.00 2,500.00 2,000.00 1,500.00 100.00 80.00 60.00 >200 2005-01 2005-09 2006-05 2007-01 2007-09 2008-05 2009-01 2009-09 2010-05 2011-01 2011-09 2012-05 2013-01 2013-09 40.00 2011-07 -15 2012-07 -15 2013-07 -15 Wind 1.1.25 78% Wind 1.1.26 1.05 1 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.8 0.75 0.7 2002-09 2003-04 2003-11 2004-06 2005-01 2005-08 2006-03 2006-10 2007-05 2007-12 2008-07 2009-02 2009-09 2010-04 2010-11 2011-06 2012-01 2012-08 2013-03 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 : 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Wind Wind 2. 1) 2004 2.82 2012 16.14 4.72 GDP 17.63% 31.10%21 GDP 37.64% 78% 50% 5.6% 50.06% 2012 2) 13

14 20092010 10.7 5 20 15 18 2013 19.41 20 1.1.2 1.1.2 9.3 0.65 1.95 2.11 BT 5.26 19.41 2013 GDP65% 226%107%79% 3) 1.1.27 III 2015 1, 4% 6%, 2% 4.5% 4) wind 2013 12 4 23198.14 6919.173.01 4014 GDP 104% IMF2012152% 143% 118% 10% 2003 10%

15 1.1.27III 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00 14.00 2009-03 2009-06 2009-09 2009-12 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 : : Wind 1.1.4 1. 2013 11 9 12 15 2014

2. 1 GDP 7.5% 7.6% 7.6%~7.7% 7.2%~7.5% 10 11 8.1% 2.8%4.7% 8.1% 9.0% 10 8.45% 7 9 8 10 12.62% 9 10 9.89% 9 2012 10% 1.1.28 1.1.29 : : % % 30 50 20 40 10 30 0 20-10 10-20 0 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 Wind 1.1.30 : % Wind 1.1.31 20.00 30 15.00 25 10.00 20 5.00 15 0.00 10-5.00 5-10.00 0-15.00 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 -5 2010-02 2010-06 2010-10 2011-02 2011-06 2011-10 2012-02 2012-06 2012-10 2013-02 2013-06 2013-10 Wind Wind 16

2 2005 2005 GDP 16.09% 9.38% 6 5 2005 GDP/ GDP GDP GDP 2010 4000 20112013 IMF 2007 4.0652.6 63.9% 6.07 3.7661.9% 81.56 86.23 2008 12 2010 6 10% 6 10 G7 G7 17

1.1.32 3 80 30 1979 80 90 2003 WTO 30 2020 25~30 2013 2020 1.1.33 25.00 20.00 GDP 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 WTO -5.00 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Wind 18

19 1.2 1.2.1 1. QE GDP 3.6% 10 7.3% 11 7.0% QE 63.0% 1.2.1 117.0% 1.2.2 7.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.50 9.00 9.50 10.00 10.50 2009-01 2009-05 2009-09 2010-01 2010-05 2010-09 2011-01 2011-05 2011-09 2012-01 2012-05 2012-09 2013-01 2013-05 2013-09 : : 62.5% 63.5% 64.5% 65.5% 66.5% 67.5% 68.5% 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Wind Wind 1.2.3 9 SP/CS 13.29% 1.2.4 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 2.50 3.50 4.50 5.50 6.50 7.50 8.50 9.50 : : : : -25.00-20.00-15.00-10.00-5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 2001-07 2002-01 2002-07 2003-01 2003-07 2004-01 2004-07 2005-01 2005-07 2006-01 2006-07 2007-01 2007-07 2008-01 2008-07 2009-01 2009-07 2010-01 2010-07 2011-01 2011-07 2012-01 2012-07 2013-01 2013-07 /CS20 Wind Wind

1.2.72009GNP 2005~2007 1.2.8 2005 2012 GDP 2008~2009 GDP GDP 40% 60% QE 1.2.5 1.2.6 ISM PMI 2011 100.00 : : (ISM): PMI 90.00 80.00 75 65 : PMI: 70.00 55 45 60.00 35 50.00 25 2006-09 2007-03 2007-09 2008-03 2008-09 2009-03 2009-09 2010-03 2010-09 2011-03 2011-09 2012-03 2012-09 2013-03 2013-09 2008-03 2008-09 2009-03 2009-09 2010-03 2010-09 2011-03 2011-09 2012-03 2012-09 2013-03 2013-09 Wind 1.2.7 GNP Wind 1.2.8 GDP GNP GDP GDP 10 5 0-5 2.7 10.00 5.00-10 -15 1995-3-1 2000-3-1 2005-3-1 2010-3-1 0.00-5.00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Wind Wind 20

21 1.2.9 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 1961-03 1962-09 1964-03 1965-09 1967-03 1968-09 1970-03 1971-09 1973-03 1974-09 1976-03 1977-09 1979-03 1980-09 1982-03 1983-09 1985-03 1986-09 1988-03 1989-09 1991-03 1992-09 1994-03 1995-09 1997-03 1998-09 2000-03 2001-09 2003-03 2004-09 2006-03 2007-09 2009-03 2010-09 2012-03 Wind 2. 1.2.9 2009 1.2.11 1.2.10 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1919-01-01 1925-01-01 1931-01-01 1937-01-01 1943-01-01 1949-01-01 1955-01-01 1961-01-01 1967-01-01 1973-01-01 1979-01-01 1985-01-01 1991-01-01 1997-01-01 2003-01-01 2009-01-01 1.2.11 1.2.12 0.00 2000.00 4000.00 6000.00 8000.00 10000.00 12000.00 14000.00 16000.00 1981-01-01 1983-08-01 1986-03-01 1988-10-01 1991-05-01 1994-01-02 1996-08-02 1999-03-02 2001-10-02 2004-05-02 2007-01-03 2009-08-03 2012-03-03 CMDEBT 65.00 70.00 75.00 80.00 85.00 2006-012007-012008-012009-012010-01 2011-01 2012-012013-01 78.48 Wind

1.2.12 2007 QE 2012 2007QE QE 1.2.2 1.QE QE1 QE3 QE1 2008 11 23 200 3000 1000 5000 QE1 QE1 2010 3 1.25 3000 1750 1.725 2008 12 8675 2010 2 10400 19% 2008 7.4% 2009 10% QE1 22

1.2.13 1.2.14 20000 100 15000 90 10000 80 5000 70 0 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 60 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Wind Wind QE2 2010 4 (QE2) (FOMC) 6000 750 2011 QE2 QE2 9.6% QE3 2012 9 14 (FOMC) 0-0.25% 201515 (QE3)400 (MBS) (QE3) QEQE QE QE3 QE3 QE 79 85 QE QE1 QE3 QE1 QE2 QE3 QE2 2. QE FOMC 23

QE 2014 QE QE QE3 QE QE 1.2.15 GDP 1.2.16 10 5 0 Mar -08 Mar -09 Mar -10 Mar -11 Mar -12 Mar -13-5 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 1000 500 0-500 -1000-10 GDP : : : : : Wind Wind 12 5GDP3.6% 1120.3 18.5 7% 2013 7% QE QE 5 QE QE QE 8 24

QE 1.2.17 1.2.18 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan-13 Mar -13 May -13 Jul -13 Sep -13 Nov -13 1 2 3 5 7 10 20 30 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Jan-08 Nov -08 Sep -09 Jul-10 May -11 Mar -12 Jan-13 : PCE: Wind 1.2.19 5 Wind 1.2.20 2 1 0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000-1 1.5 Oct -13 Oct -13 Oct -13 Nov -13 Nov -13 Nov -13 Dec -13 5 TIPS 5 0 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 : : : Wind Wind 10 1.1%1.2% 2% TIPS 12 11 51.65% 2% QE QE QE MBS 25

3.9 2008 8000 QE 12 QEQE QE QE GDP4 GDP 6 12 QE QE QE 2 2.1 2.1.1 1. 0.5% 2011 12 2012 2 2.1.1 2.1.2 PIIGS 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-09 Oct -09 Jul-10 Apr -11 Jan-12 Oct -12 Jul-13 Wind 26

2010 2012 10 30% 16% 7% 9.8% 6.4% 4.3% 4.4% 600280 1.50 1.20 1.45 1.20 1.33200 60 1.37111.40 1.45 1.30 2.1.3 2.1.4 PMI 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 70 60 50 40 30 20 Jan-09 Oct -09 Jul-10 Apr -11 Jan-12 Oct -12 Jul-13 Wind : PMI : PMI Wind 87 50.3 2011 7 508-10 PMI 8 50 9 10 GDP 2011 4 6 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 27

2.1.5 GDP 2.1.6 2013 GDP 2.5 1.2 2 0.8 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5-1 Sep-09 Jun -10 Mar -11 Dec -11 Sep-12 Jun -13 0.4 0-0.4-0.8 Wind Wind GDP 2.1.7 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Jan -09 Nov -09 Sep -10 Jul -11 May -12 Mar -13 17 : : 17 : : Wind 2.1.8 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Jan-09 Nov -09 Sep -10 Jul-11 May -12 Mar -13-20000 : : Wind 8 2012 7 2013 8 2011 2006 2006 28

GDP 2.1.9 50 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Jun -08 Jun -09 Jun -10 Jun -11 Jun -12 Jun -13 2.1.10 105 100 95 90 85 80 Mar -05 Aug -06 Jan-08 Jun -09 Nov -10 Apr -12 Wind 50 : Wind 2. 1.32 1.3785 4% 1.38 12 5 0.25% 1.38 GDP LTRO GDP 29

2.1.11 1.3 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 1 0.7 0.4 0.1 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00-10.00-20.00-30.00 Jan-05 Sep-05May -06Jan-07 Sep-07May -08Jan-09 Sep-09May -10Jan-11 Sep-11May -12Jan-13 Sep-13 % Wind 7 5.73% 1.3 2.1.2 1. 1 2.1.12 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Dec -12 Mar -13 Jun -13 Sep-13 Dec -13 2.1.13 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Dec -12 Mar -13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec -13 Wind 225 Wind 30

2% GDP QE 2.2 30% 2 QE QE QE 1. 2. 3 2% 2014 5% 31

8% 201510% 2009 4 10 2.1.14 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5-1 -1.5 Jan -10 Sep -10 May -11 Jan -12 Sep -12 May -13 2.1.15 500000 0-500000 -1000000-1500000 -2000000 Nov -11 Apr -12 Sep -12 Feb -13 Jul-13 Wind :CPI: : : Wind GDP 230% 4 12 9 (GDP) 0.3% 1.1%1.9% GDP 43.6% 1.5% 10 9 32

4 2.1.16 GDP 15 10 5 0-5 Mar -10Jun -10Sep-10Dec-10Mar -11Jun -11Sep-11Dec-11Mar -12Jun -12Sep-12Dec-12Mar -13Jun -13Sep-13-10 :GDP:2005 : : :GDP:2005 :: Wind 2. 1.1% 2% 0.1 3 2% 12 2% 3 117.8 110 2.1.3 2013 33

2.1.17 2013 11 B-52 2 9 ( ) 42% 34

3 5 3 1 1/3 11 24 2013 1. 2. 2014 2.2 2013 35

363 2014 2.2.1 7.0% 2014 1 QE2014 2014 QE 2015 2013 2.2.2 2.2.1 2.2.2 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013YTD 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013YTD Bloomberg, ETP issuer data, Barclays Research Research Bloomberg, ETP issuer data, Barclays 36

2.2.3 2.2.4 100 80 60 40 20 0-20 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013YTD -40 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013YTD Bloomberg, ETP issuer data, Barclays Research, 2.2.5 Bloomberg, ETP issuer data, Barclays Research 2.2.6 10 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 / 10 QE1 QE2 Operation Twist QE3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00-0.50-1.00-1.50 2.2.7 PMI 65 60 55 50 45 Bloomberg 2.2.8 2 1 0-1 -2 40 35 30 07 08 09 10 11 12 13-3 -4-5 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Haver analytics Markit Haver analytics Markit 2.2.3 2008 37

8%5 10 7% 2.2.9% 2.2.10 14 12 34 32 10 30 8 28 6 26 4 2 24 0 9192939495969798990001020304050607080910111213 22 ) 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 IMF Haver analytics 2.2.11 2014 % -2 0-2 4 6 8 IMF Haver analytics Haver analytics Barclays Research 2.2.12 % %change 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Haver analytics Barclays Research 2.2.4 2014 38

2.2.13 2012 1 2013 3 2.2.14 Bloomberg 2.2.15 Bloomberg 2.2.16 5 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 77% 52% 34% 81% 75% 50% 25% 0% 20% 10% -25% WTT 0% Bloomberg CFTC Barclays Research 39

2013 3 2014 2014 2014Alpha 300 20142620-2686 2653 2013 2527.38 2527.38 2014 3 40

1 1.1. 2013 2013 2012 2013 2 8 4 GDP 7.7% 2013 5 29 13% 6 13 2012 12 4 2023.17 6 25 7 8 300 9 9 12 2017 2012 10 25 20 15 15-25% 9 26 7 9 10 10 30 2013 11 14 2013 7 11 41

2013 2013 12 24 2012 2013 10 12 24 1.1.1 2013 1.2. 2013 2013 2014 3 2410 2013 2 38.2% 920 920 20 1.2.13 42

920 9.05% 7.52% 2014 2013 3 9202343 53.49% 13 92054.17% 1.2.1 38.2% 3 (%)( 2 ) 38.2% 38.2% % 1 CSRC 18 30 60.00% 0.44 2 CSRC 16 28 57.14% 9.05 3 CSRC 6 11 54.55% 7.52 4 CSRC 13 24 54.17% 2.88 5 CSRC 22 41 53.66% 7.69 6 CSRC 23 43 53.49% 1.18 7 CSRC 17 32 53.13% 0.38 8 CSRC 14 27 51.85% 1.00 9 CSRC 9 18 50.00% 3.90 10 CSRC 11 22 50.00% 1.64 11 CSRC 39 84 46.43% 2.80 12 CSRC 6 13 46.15% 1.04 13 CSRC 22 48 45.83% 5.22 14 CSRC 41 93 44.09% 4.26 15 CSRC 58 134 43.28% 2.85 16 CSRC 6 14 42.86% 7.53 17 CSRC 5 12 41.67% 9.85 18 CSRC 5 12 41.67% 0.58 19 CSRC 29 70 41.43% 3.39 20 CSRC 9 22 40.91% 2.85 wind & 7 0.38% 16 7.53% 2.85% 43

2013 3 1.2.2 2013 3 38.2% 92025.00% 20.20% 2 7 31 3 10.34% 1.2.2 38.2% 38.2% 3 (%)( 2 ) 38.2% % 1 CSRC 4 16 25.00% 20.20 2 CSRC 3 17 17.65% 10.91 3 CSRC 8 26 30.77% 10.34 4 CSRC 5 12 41.67% 9.85 5 CSRC 5 19 26.32% 9.31 6 CSRC 16 28 57.14% 9.05 7 CSRC 11 28 39.29% 7.81 8 CSRC 11 31 35.48% 7.80 9 CSRC 1 19 5.26% 7.71 10 CSRC 22 41 53.66% 7.69 11 CSRC 6 14 42.86% 7.53 12 CSRC 6 11 54.55% 7.52 13 CSRC 69 206 33.50% 6.17 14 CSRC 11 34 32.35% 5.95 15 CSRC 2 12 16.67% 5.46 16 CSRC 22 48 45.83% 5.22 17 CSRC 21 58 36.21% 5.05 18 CSRC 2 14 14.29% 4.69 19 CSRC 41 135 30.37% 4.63 20 CSRC 41 93 44.09% 4.26 wind & 44

1.3. 2013 3 2014 Alpha 2013 3 1.3.1 38.2% 38.2% 3 (%)( 2 ) 38.2% % 1 CSRC 16 19 84.21% -5.96 2 CSRC 10 14 71.43% -7.86 3 CSRC 6 10 60.00% -5.58 4 CSRC 10 17 58.82% -10.03 5 CSRC 69 135 51.11% -9.73 6 CSRC 6 12 50.00% -10.38 7 CSRC 7 14 50.00% -14.86 8 CSRC 12 24 50.00% -7.67 9 CSRC 17 34 50.00% -5.60 10 CSRC 47 96 48.96% -11.04 11 CSRC 100 206 48.54% -9.56 12 CSRC 36 76 47.37% -7.20 13 CSRC 17 37 45.95% -7.15 14 CSRC 53 119 44.54% -9.05 15 CSRC 9 22 40.91% -8.67 16 CSRC 28 69 40.58% -6.24 17 CSRC 17 42 40.48% -9.87 18 CSRC 8 20 40.00% -6.92 19 CSRC 6 16 37.50% -4.88 20 CSRC 7 19 36.84% -3.17 wind & 920 1014 71.43% 38.2% 7.86% 45

10 6 38.2% 38.2% 58.82% 7 31 59.73% 14738.2% 1.2.1 6 38.2% 17 3450% 5.60% 10.03% 10 58.82% 14 7 38.2%50% 1.2.2 11 7.53% 13.47% 47 38.2% 11.04% 20 1.3.2 38.2% 38.2% 3 (%)( 2 ) 38.2% % 1 CSRC 7 14 50.00% -14.86 2 CSRC 2 13 15.38% -13.47 3 CSRC 47 96 48.96% -11.04 4 CSRC 6 12 50.00% -10.38 5 CSRC 10 17 58.82% -10.03 6 CSRC 17 42 40.48% -9.87 7 CSRC 3 11 27.27% -9.82 8 CSRC 69 135 51.11% -9.73 9 CSRC 100 206 48.54% -9.56 46

38.2% 3 (%)( 2 ) 38.2% % 10 CSRC 53 119 44.54% -9.05 11 CSRC 16 51 31.37% -8.95 12 CSRC 9 22 40.91% -8.67 13 CSRC 4 12 33.33% -8.16 14 CSRC 54 149 36.24% -8.07 15 CSRC 10 14 71.43% -7.86 16 CSRC 36 134 26.87% -7.84 17 CSRC 12 24 50.00% -7.67 18 CSRC 29 93 31.18% -7.57 19 CSRC 59 167 35.33% -7.57 20 CSRC 15 48 31.25% -7.46 wind & 1.4. 38.2% % 2 0% 5% 2 1% 31% 21% 3 3 3 4-6 4.69 2.94 2.65 50.37% 7.20% 57.61% 7.20% 47

1.62 33.55% 165.83% 1.4.1 2 3 1 CSRC 24.95 34.40 9.45 70.39% 2 2 CSRC 31.37 40.37 9.00 258.63% 9 3 CSRC 45.50 52.62 7.13 15.66% 1 4 CSRC 50.05 54.74 4.69 50.37% 28 5 CSRC 56.10 59.04 2.94 7.20% 16 6 CSRC 29.31 31.95 2.65 57.61% 41 7 CSRC 16.76 18.53 1.77 9.72% 2 8 CSRC 58.80 60.42 1.62 33.55% 26 9 CSRC 31.85 33.09 1.23 2.72% 11 10 CSRC 33.40 34.61 1.21 4.69% 7 11 CSRC 33.59 34.65 1.06 4.53% 4 12 CSRC 31.60 32.65 1.05 165.83% 6 13 CSRC 38.95 39.83 0.88 31.71% 18 14 CSRC 38.46 39.30 0.84 9.22% 19 15 CSRC 44.99 45.82 0.83 22.54% 31 16 CSRC 34.66 35.29 0.63 32.68% 28 17 CSRC 28.27 28.59 0.32 20.05% 4 18 CSRC 17.03 17.03 0.00 0.00% 1 19 CSRC 35.52 35.41-0.11-6.97% 24 20 CSRC 47.11 46.95-0.16 9.34% 58 wind & 3 2.47 78.19% 3 32.68% 48

3 0.16 77.42% 3.7215.82% 1.4.2 2 3 1 CSRC 31.37 40.37 9.00 258.63% 9 2 CSRC 31.60 32.65 1.05 165.83% 6 3 CSRC 31.48 29.13-2.47 78.19% 119 4 CSRC 32.02 31.93-0.16 77.42% 48 5 CSRC 24.95 34.40 9.45 70.39% 2 6 CSRC 29.31 31.95 2.65 57.61% 41 7 CSRC 28.51 27.31-1.20 57.41% 12 8 CSRC 50.05 54.74 4.69 50.37% 28 9 CSRC 35.33 32.63-2.75 44.01% 206 10 CSRC 45.61 41.32-4.30 35.35% 14 11 CSRC 58.80 60.42 1.62 33.55% 26 12 CSRC 34.66 35.29 0.63 32.68% 28 13 CSRC 38.95 39.83 0.88 31.71% 18 14 CSRC 32.68 28.43-4.26 26.10% 96 15 CSRC 28.43 24.95-3.48 24.06% 24 16 CSRC 44.99 45.82 0.83 22.54% 31 17 CSRC 28.27 28.59 0.32 20.05% 4 18 CSRC 41.87 38.15-3.72 15.82% 135 19 CSRC 45.50 52.62 7.13 15.66% 1 20 CSRC 34.11 32.44-1.68 14.63% 167 wind & 49

1.5. 3 10.17 30.09% 8 11 6 14 9 12 10 15 1.5.1 2 3 1 CSRC 40.63 30.46-10.17-30.09% 7 2 CSRC 39.17 29.87-9.30-19.55% 8 3 CSRC 23.47 15.86-7.61-26.90% 7 4 CSRC 38.23 31.08-7.15-6.61% 9 5 CSRC 59.15 52.35-6.80-11.97% 3 6 CSRC 50.35 44.24-6.11-16.24% 2 7 CSRC 34.83 29.63-5.20-21.37% 9 8 CSRC 46.71 41.67-5.03 11.39% 14 9 CSRC 57.18 52.42-4.76-9.15% 19 10 CSRC 39.51 35.13-4.38-12.03% 5 11 CSRC 45.61 41.32-4.30 35.35% 14 12 CSRC 32.68 28.43-4.26 26.10% 96 13 CSRC 43.87 39.68-4.20-13.34% 17 14 CSRC 41.61 37.76-3.86-9.27% 1 15 CSRC 21.95 18.12-3.84-17.48% 1 16 CSRC 62.09 58.25-3.84-7.17% 10 17 CSRC 43.08 39.28-3.80-7.19% 42 50

2 3 18 CSRC 80.74 77.00-3.74-6.40% 5 19 CSRC 41.87 38.15-3.72 15.82% 135 20 CSRC 28.43 24.95-3.48 24.06% 24 wind & IPO 3 4.76 9.15% 51

2 2.1. 2.1.1 2013 11 12 2.1.2. IMF 2013 10 52

2.1.3. 2013 7 20 2013 7 20 1980 1986 1995 2001 2013 6 2013 53

, 11 30 1. 2. WFE 2012 54

7 2.2., 2.2.1., 55

70% 30-40% 94, 2.2.1: 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 71% 44% 38% 27% 27 Wind& 94, 56

94 2.2.2. 1998, 2.2.3. 1994, 57

2.2.2 : : 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 Wind& 94 15% 85% 58

2.3. 94 2.3.1. GDP GDP GDP GDP 59

60 2.3.1: GDP 2.3.2: GDP 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 1947-03 1952-05 1957-07 1962-09 1967-11 1973-01 1978-03 1983-05 1988-07 1993-09 1998-11 2004-01 2009-03 GDP 9.00% 11.00% 13.00% 15.00% 17.00% 19.00% 21.00% 23.00% 1980-03 1983-01 1985-11 1988-09 1991-07 1994-05 1997-03 2000-01 2002-11 2005-09 2008-07 2011-05 GDP 1947 GDP 8%~13% 2008 7%GDP 1972 1979 1986 2007 1973 ~1975 5 1979 4 ~1982 11 1987 2007 7 GDP 1~2 20 80 25 2% 3.25% 4.25% 20 1980 GDP 20% GDP

2.3.3 GDP 14.00% 13.00% 12.00% 11.00% 10.00% 9.00% 8.00% 1992-03 1993-04 1994-05 1995-06 1996-07 1997-08 1998-09 1999-10 2000-11 2002-01 2003-02 2004-03 2005-04 2006-05 2007-06 2008-07 2009-08 2010-09 2011-10 2012-11 GDP Wind& 90 GDP 3 92 2003 2003 2008 20094 200bp GDP 13.10% 2.3.2. Y=C+I+G+NX GDP I=S GDP C 61

62 2.4.3 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 2010-03 2010-06 2010-09 2010-12 2011-03 2011-06 2011-09 2011-12 2012-03 2012-06 2012-09 2012-12 2013-03 2013-06 2013-09 Wind& & 3 2009 2012 3 32.52% 9.87% 2.3.3.

3 3.1. 3.1.1. 2 3.1.2. GDP 2012 72.15% GDP GDP 2007 GDP 33.56% 2012 GDP 40.50%GDP 2012 GDP 3.1.1 GDP 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0-20.0-40.0-60.0 2009-03 2009-07 2009-11 2010-03 2010-07 GDP 2010-11 2011-03 2011-07 2011-11 2012-03 2012-07 2012-11 2013-03 2013-07 GDP :: GDP :: GDP :: Wind& 63

64 3.1.2 GDP -30.00-20.00-10.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 1953-12 1957-02 1960-04 1963-06 1966-08 1969-10 1973-01 1976-03 1979-05 1982-07 1985-09 1988-11 1992-01 1995-03 1998-05 2001-07 2004-09 2007-11 2011-01 GDP: GDP: Wind& 1997 2007 GDP 2007 2009 2009 4 10 V 2010 3 3.1.3. 30 1. 2. 3.

30 15%10% 2013 3.1.4. 2012 15-59 2010 2008 52.3% 28.6%-34% 65

TFP TFP 10 15 TFP, 66

3.1.5. 3.2. 3.2.1. 1981 1.22 1993 0.30-0.43 30% 30% 30% 30% 67

68 3.2.1 0.00 50000.00 100000.00 150000.00 200000.00 250000.00 300000.00 350000.00 400000.00 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 & 3.2.2 0.00 500.00 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 & 1970 0.65-0.85 3.2.2. 1986 9 1998 1999 2002 0.02792005 0.0662 2012 0.0155 2000

69 3.2.3 0.00 50000.00 100000.00 150000.00 200000.00 250000.00 300000.00 350000.00 400000.00 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0.0000 0.0050 0.0100 0.0150 0.0200 0.0250 0.0300 & 3.2.4 : : : 0.00 500.00 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0.0000 0.0500 0.1000 0.1500 0.2000 0.2500 0.3000 0.3500 0.4000 0.4500 & 0.29-0.42 0.42-0.50 3.2.3.

70 3.2.5 0.00 20000.00 40000.00 60000.00 80000.00 100000.00 120000.00 140000.00 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0.0000 0.0200 0.0400 0.0600 0.0800 0.1000 0.1200 0.1400 0.1600 0.1800 0.2000 & 2012 0.172012 0.10 70% 0.015 0.0305500-6000 0.045 11000-12000 3.2.6 0.00 500.00 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0.0000 0.0200 0.0400 0.0600 0.0800 0.1000 0.1200 0.1400 0.1600 0.1800 & 3.2.4.

3 3 Alpha 4 A 4.1. 2013 4.1.1. 2013 A 2012 2013 A 1 3D 2 7 8 9 10 11 3D 30% 4.1.1 2013 ( ) 2013M1 3D 176.24% 38.82% 2013M2 81.86% 19.42% 2013M3 128.37% 7.30% 2013M4 196.47% 1.59% 2013M5 150.72% 15.03% 2013M6 68.04% -8.76% 2013M7 197.26% 34.66% 2013M8 127.91% 51.00% 2013M9 166.49% 33.44% 2013M10 147.56% 7.53% 2013M11 156.68% 20.76% wind& 7 3 8 A 71

1.0%5.5% 11 2.0% 8 8 8 9 8 23 8 22 8 26 23 30 20 11475% 9 4.2.1 2013 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 2013-1-1 2013-2-1 2013-3-1 2013-4-1 2013-5-1 2013-6-1 2013-7-1 2013-8-1 2013-9-1 2013-10-1 2013-11-1 Wind& 9 72

9 7 9 15% 9 9 24.319% ( ) 14.17% 13.69% 9 12 5% 10% 2001 2012 4 2007 11 6 2008 1 2 2010 8 17 2012 3 1 2012 3 1 73

74 2013 500 4.2.2 2013 2013-1-4 2013-2-4 2013-3-4 2013-4-4 2013-5-4 2013-6-4 2013-7-4 2013-8-4 2013-9-4 2013-10-4 2013-11-4 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 1.20% Wind& 7 7 16.98 7 8 8 22 23 91.39 19 9 16 500 4.1.2. (absolute valuation) 2013 A 2013 11

75 4.2.3 2013 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2013M1 2013M2 2013M3 2013M4 2013M5 2013M6 2013M7 2013M8 2013M9 2013M10 2013M11 Wind & 1 3D 35,11 58 2013 4.2.4 2012 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2012-3-2 2012-4-2 2012-5-2 2012-6-2 2012-7-2 2012-8-2 2012-9-2 2012-10-2 2012-11-2 2012-12-2 2013-1-2 2013-2-2 2013-3-2 2013-4-2 2013-5-2 2013-6-2 2013-7-2 2013-8-2 2013-9-2 2013-10-2 2013-11-2 Wind& 4.2. 2013 4.2.1. PE 2013 102.38% 1 2013 2013 3

1782.90 1378.47 986.39 52 PE 34 5 PE 40 224 60 253 40 IPO IPO 2013 2014 IPO PE -332.41 2 PE -46.97-39.05% 1783 1378 PE 3 PE BPE 4.2.1 PE40 2013 3 2013 12 20 PE PE 1 720002.OF 1782.90 10 21 000008.OF 500ETF 700.34 10 2 000017.OF 1378.47 10 22 160616.OF 500 695.20 10 3 320015.OF 986.39 7 23 270026.OF 300ETF 638.84 10 4 160805.OF 722.85 10 24 210008.OF 636.93 10 5 320003.OF 721.49 10 25 070030.OF 400ETF 634.55 10 6 166301.OF 500 706.92 10 26 210009.OF 626.35 10 7 150110.OF 500A( ) 706.92 10 27 590005.OF 542.93 10 8 150111.OF 500B( ) 706.92 10 28 519983.OF 466.54 10 9 162711.OF 500ETF 705.25 10 29 121006.OF 444.15 10 10 159922.OF 500ETF 703.82 10 30 740001.OF 311.55 10 11 162107.OF 500 703.82 10 31 585001.OF 198.50 10 12 164809.OF 500 703.82 10 32 510260.OF ETF 194.59 10 13 510500.OF 500ETF 703.82 10 33 217009.OF 188.79 10 14 510510.OF 500ETF 703.82 10 34 519714.OF 300 185.86 10 15 660011.OF 500 703.82 10 35 360011.OF 177.03 10 76

PE PE 16 150055.OF 500A( ) 703.82 10 36 360007.OF 171.15 10 17 150056.OF 500B( ) 703.82 10 37 202007.OF 163.55 10 18 150088.OF 500A( ) 703.82 10 38 320008.OF A 160.95 2 19 150089.OF 500B( ) 703.82 10 39 320009.OF B 160.95 2 20 000062.OF 703.15 10 40 217021.OF 142.00 10 wind & 4.2.2 PE40 2013 3 2013 12 20 PE PE 1 090020.OF 500 ETF -332.41 1 21 570005.OF 0.41 10 2 673010.OF -255.62 10 22 233006.OF 3.74 10 3 519156.OF -84.10 10 23 217023.OF 4.38 5 4 000072.OF -59.33 8 24 110030.OF 300 4.40 10 5 720001.OF -46.97 10 25 710301.OF A 4.70 10 6 720003.OF -39.05 10 26 710302.OF C 4.70 10 7 290008.OF -27.97 10 27 450009.OF 4.75 10 8 217022.OF -22.23 1 28 162213.OF 5.03 10 9 519908.OF -19.26 10 29 160620.OF A 5.35 10 10 360006.OF -9.37 10 30 150100.OF A( ) 5.35 10 11 519068.OF -9.11 10 31 150101.OF B( ) 5.35 10 12 519117.OF 400-4.36 10 32 519671.OF 300 6.14 10 13 233007.OF -3.88 10 33 470007.OF 6.36 10 14 161713.OF ( ) -3.62 2 34 000051.OF 300ETF 6.37 10 15 360005.OF -3.02 10 35 100038.OF 300 6.40 10 16 630008.OF -2.10 10 36 510090.OF ETF 6.60 10 17 000066.OF 0.06 2 37 530010.OF ETF 6.60 10 18 162907.OF 400 0.11 10 38 510210.OF ETF 6.61 10 19 150094.OF 400A( ) 0.11 10 39 510030.OF 180 ETF 6.90 10 20 150095.OF 400B( ) 0.11 10 40 310398.OF 300 7.15 10 wind & 4.2.2. PB PB PB 1 PB 17.19 77

PB 10.73 1 PB 10.15 6 PB 40 3 40 IPO 4.2.3 PB40 2013 3 2013 12 20 PB PB 1 590005.OF 17.19 10 21 240008.OF 9.15 10 2 210009.OF 10.73 10 22 163412.OF 9.00 10 3 040036.OF A 10.15 10 23 000031.OF 8.97 10 4 040037.OF B 10.15 10 24 217019.OF TMT50ETF 8.97 6 5 121001.OF 10.04 10 25 660004.OF 8.95 10 6 210008.OF 9.99 10 26 377020.OF 8.93 10 7 161613.OF 9.98 10 27 540004.OF 2026 8.92 10 8 163801.OF 9.93 10 28 519029.OF 8.91 10 9 540010.OF 9.70 10 29 000073.OF 8.90 10 10 161219.OF 9.65 10 30 377240.OF 8.90 10 11 159915.OF ETF 9.56 10 31 000124.OF 8.87 10 12 370027.OF 30 9.55 10 32 162208.OF 8.86 10 13 373020.OF 9.49 10 33 350008.OF 8.80 10 14 255010.OF 9.45 10 34 370024.OF 8.80 10 15 162209.OF 9.41 10 35 540008.OF 8.64 10 16 270008.OF 9.41 10 36 288001.OF 8.63 10 17 460005.OF 9.35 10 37 270021.OF 8.61 10 18 121005.OF 9.32 10 38 110001.OF 8.61 10 19 420003.OF 9.28 10 39 000117.OF 8.60 10 20 340008.OF 9.22 10 40 070015.OF A 8.59 1 wind & PB ETF ETF PB 2013 78

4.2.4 PB40 2013 3 2013 12 20 PB PB 1 217022.OF 0.83 1 21 510230.OF 180 ETF 1.17 10 2 162213.OF 0.96 10 22 510650.OF ETF 1.17 10 3 470007.OF 1.05 10 23 519712.OF 1.18 10 4 160716.OF 50 1.07 10 24 202015.OF 300ETF 1.19 10 5 100032.OF 1.09 10 25 161211.OF 300 ETF 1.19 10 6 510210.OF ETF 1.09 10 26 320010.OF 100 1.19 10 7 510060.OF 50ETF 1.10 10 27 519300.OF 300 1.19 10 8 530008.OF 1.10 4 28 160417.OF 300 1.19 10 9 100038.OF 300 1.11 10 29 161207.OF 300 1.19 10 10 090010.OF 1.11 10 30 167901.OF 300 1.19 10 11 161907.OF 1.11 10 31 481009.OF 300 1.19 10 12 510090.OF 13 530010.OF ( 1.12 10 32 150008.OF ETF ) 1.19 10 ( 1.12 10 33 150009.OF ETF ) 1.19 10 14 510880.OF ETF 1.12 10 34 150104.OF 300A( ) 1.19 10 15 510110.OF ETF 1.15 10 35 150105.OF 300B( ) 1.19 10 16 510030.OF 180 ETF 1.15 10 36 165309.OF 300 1.19 10 17 202005.OF 1.15 10 37 160706.OF 300ETF 1.20 10 18 510190.OF ETF 1.15 10 38 160806.OF 800 1.20 10 19 161713.OF ( ) 1.16 2 39 161811.OF 300 1.20 10 20 020021.OF 180 800A( 1.17 10 40 150098.OF ETF ) 1.20 10 wind & 4.2.3. PS PS PS PS6 PS 40 500500 500 PS 2013 79

2013 4.2.5 PS40 2013 3 2013 12 20 PS PS 1 161613.OF 25.24 10 21 150056.OF 500B( ) 17.68 10 2 630007.OF A 24.54 10 22 150088.OF 500A( ) 17.68 10 3 630107.OF B 24.54 10 23 150089.OF 500B( ) 17.68 10 4 159918.OF 400ETF 23.48 10 24 240012.OF A 17.65 6 5 720003.OF 21.47 10 25 240013.OF B 17.65 6 6 159915.OF ETF 20.18 10 26 160805.OF 17.49 10 7 481010.OF 19.76 10 27 420003.OF 17.36 10 8 320015.OF 18.85 7 28 560006.OF 17.35 10 9 229002.OF 18.40 10 29 162203.OF 17.15 10 10 630009.OF A 18.03 10 30 240008.OF 16.98 10 11 630109.OF C 18.03 10 31 660012.OF 16.96 10 12 162211.OF 17.80 10 32 000120.OF 16.78 10 13 240017.OF 17.77 10 33 000039.OF 16.76 10 14 159922.OF 500ETF 17.68 10 34 000062.OF 16.73 10 15 162107.OF 500 17.68 10 35 373020.OF 16.39 10 16 164809.OF 500 17.68 10 36 660001.OF 16.30 10 17 510500.OF 500ETF 17.68 10 37 162711.OF 500ETF 16.29 10 18 510510.OF 500ETF 17.68 10 38 166301.OF 500 16.26 10 19 660011.OF 500 17.68 10 39 150110.OF 500A( ) 16.26 10 20 150055.OF 500A( ) 17.68 10 40 150111.OF 500B( ) 16.26 10 wind & PS 20 PS 1.31 10 80

4.2.6 PS40 2013 3 2013 12 20 PS PS 1 519032.OF ETF 0.32 2 21 166006.OF 1.17 10 2 217022.OF 0.52 1 22 160607.OF 1.18 10 3 240019.OF 180 ETF 0.56 1 23 159913.OF 300 ETF 1.18 10 4 360013.OF A 0.68 1 24 162216.OF 500 1.21 10 5 360014.OF C 0.68 1 25 150053.OF ( ) 1.21 10 6 161713.OF ( ) 0.68 2 26 150054.OF ( ) 1.21 10 7 217023.OF 0.74 5 27 110030.OF 300 1.22 10 8 530008.OF 0.82 4 28 530020.OF A 1.22 10 9 510190.OF ETF 0.83 10 29 531020.OF C 1.22 10 10 160505.OF 0.92 10 30 290003.OF 1.23 2 11 070027.OF 0.97 10 31 000066.OF 1.23 2 12 000047.OF A 0.98 1 32 510090.OF ETF 1.24 10 13 000048.OF C 0.98 1 33 530010.OF ETF 1.24 10 14 110035.OF A 0.98 1 34 160620.OF A 1.25 10 15 110036.OF C 0.98 1 35 150100.OF A( ) 1.25 10 16 253030.OF 0.98 1 36 150101.OF B( ) 1.25 10 17 400009.OF 0.98 1 37 110019.OF 100ETF 1.29 10 18 240022.OF 0.98 10 38 050021.OF 200ETF 1.29 10 19 270024.OF 1.08 2 39 000082.OF 1.29 10 20 202005.OF 1.13 10 40 481013.OF 1.31 10 wind & 4.2.4. 2013 12 19 5 56 33.48% 30.78% 26.66% 26.27% 24.60% 3 5 3% IPO 81

5 5.1. 5.1.1. 300 82

5.1.2. 2010 4 16 2013 12 2 878 S1= S2= S3= S4= S5= S6= 5.1.1 5.1.1 tinysoft& 5.1.1 2011 2011 5.1.1 5.1.1 2013 12 02 S1 7.17 0.36 8.8 12 9.61 5.77-1.37-62 39.4 S2 26.02 0.80 26 38 21.19 0.93 0.23-65.6 101 S3 53.73 1.21 52.4 82 32.09 0.07 0.27-54 144.4 S4 18.85 0.52 15.2 14 13.91 1.23 0.94-16.2 73.4 S5 46.56 0.94 41.4 40.4 25.02-0.01 0.52-11 118.4 S6 27.71 0.52 26.8 26 13.77 0.75 0.47-1.6 78.8 5.1.1 83

5.1.1 5.1.3. 20 5.1.1 5.1.2 10 5.1.2: 12013 12 02 T T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 S1 13 4 3 3 0 1 0 0 0 2 S1 13 4 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 S2 12 3 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 S2 11 4 0 4 4 2 0 2 0 0 S3 7 5 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 0 S3 10 3 1 4 0 2 1 1 2 0 S4 3 2 3 1 3 2 1 2 0 1 S4 6 2 2 2 3 2 1 2 2 0 S5 5 2 1 0 1 3 1 1 1 0 S5 6 6 1 3 2 1 2 2 1 1 S6 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 0 S6 4 6 1 6 0 3 1 0 0 0 84

5.1.2 10 (T ) 10 10 5.1.3 5.1.3 22013 12 02 T T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 S1 16 4 3 5 2 1 1 2 2 5 S1 13 4 0 1 6 3 0 1 1 1 S2 13 3 2 1 3 1 1 1 2 5 S2 11 4 0 4 5 2 2 2 2 2 S3 11 5 1 1 2 4 2 2 5 2 S3 11 4 1 5 0 2 4 1 3 4 S4 5 3 5 2 4 4 2 3 2 4 S4 8 4 3 3 4 2 4 2 4 0 S5 8 3 2 0 4 5 4 3 4 1 S5 8 6 2 3 3 3 5 3 2 1 S6 4 3 2 3 6 3 4 3 2 5 S6 5 7 2 6 2 4 3 1 1 4 5.1.310 5.1.2 S1 85

5.1.4. 1021300 10 1021300 10 35 5.1.2 5.1.2 S1 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 5.1.5. 86

5.2. 5.2.1. A 3 10 3 3 10 10 10 10 2008 1 4 2013 11 25 10 1430 1010 10 10 33 2008 2 10 250% 2009 3 2010 6 3 5.2.1 5.2.1 87

88 5.2.1 5.2.13 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 3400 2009-03-30 2009-04-07 2009-04-14 2009-04-21 2009-04-28 2009-05-06 2009-05-13 2009-05-20 2009-05-27 2009-06-03 2009-06-10 2009-06-17 2009-06-24 2009-07-01 2009-07-08 2009-07-15 2009-07-22 2009-07-29 2009-08-05 2009-08-12 2009-08-19 2009-08-26 2009-09-02 2009-09-09 2009-09-16 2009-09-23 2009-09-30 2009-10-07 2009-10-14 2009-10-21 2009-10-28 2009-11-04 2009-11-11 2009-11-18 2009-11-25 2009-12-02 2009-12-09 2009-12-16 2009-12-23 2009-12-30 2010-01-06 2010-01-13 2010-01-20 2010-01-27 2010-02-03 2010-02-10 2010-02-17 2010-02-24 2010-03-03 2010-03-10 2009 3 30 2010 6 21 A 3 Tinysoft& 5.2.2 2008 1 10 3 5.2.23 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 2008-01-04 2008-01-11 2008-01-18 2008-01-25 2008-02-01 2008-02-15 2008-02-22 2008-02-29 2008-03-07 2008-03-14 2008-03-21 2008-03-28 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2008-04-07 2008-04-14 2008-04-21 2008-04-28 2008-05-07 2008-05-14 2008-05-21 2008-05-28 2008-06-04 2008-06-12 2008-06-19 2008-06-26 2008-07-03 2008-07-10 2008-07-17 2008-07-24 2008-07-31 2008-08-07 2008-08-14 2008-08-21 2008-08-28 2008-09-04 2008-09-11 2008-09-19 2008-09-26 2008-10-10 2008-10-17 2008-10-24 2008-10-31 2008-11-07 2008-11-14 2008-11-21 2008-11-28 2008-12-05 2008-12-12 2008-12-19 2008-12-26 2009-01-06 2009-01-13 2009-01-20 2009-02-03 2009-02-10 2009-02-17 2009-02-24 2009-03-03 2009-03-10 2009-03-17 2009-03-24 2008 1 4 2009 3 27 A 3 Tinysoft& 5.2.2. 00 2008 2013 11 1430 5% 10% 15% 60%5 10 20 30 5.2.1

70% 60% 5 30 5%166 30% 83 2008 5.2.1 5 2.5% 2.55% -3.28% -4.57% 10 20 30 5.2.1 5.2.2 5.2.1 [%] [%] 5 10 20 30 [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] 5 2.50-3.28 3.48-4.60 4.77-6.35 5.93-7.48 10 2.20-3.38 3.21-4.73 4.72-6.48 5.75-7.71 15 2.17-3.37 3.10-4.67 4.57-6.37 5.58-7.61 20 2.06-3.25 2.95-4.49 4.19-6.38 5.05-7.89 25 2.03-3.45 2.93-4.59 4.20-6.29 5.11-7.99 30 2.20-3.39 2.93-4.59 4.11-6.23 5.18-8.05 40 2.29-3.70 2.97-4.88 4.25-6.66 5.39-8.40 50 2.47-4.20 3.25-5.08 4.32-6.36 5.15-7.74 60 2.55-4.57 3.09-5.31 4.04-6.81 4.69-8.23 2.19-3.35 3.10-4.61% 4.43-6.35 5.43-7.79 Tinysoft& 5.2.1 5 1.5301 10 1.4874 20 1.4350 30 1.4332 89

2008 3 50%52008 3 21 2008 4 8 2008 5 5 2008 6 26 2008 7 9 2009 50%9 5.2.3. 5 5.2.3 A 2012 1 4 3 14 3 30% 5 2012 3 12 45.68% 3 14 24782242 9.5% 2011 4 18 2011 6 20 3 30% 5 6 17 54.93% 6 20 8.2% 90

91 5.2.3:2012 1 4 2012 3 143 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 2012-01-04 2012-01-06 2012-01-08 2012-01-10 2012-01-12 2012-01-14 2012-01-16 2012-01-18 2012-01-20 2012-01-22 2012-01-24 2012-01-26 2012-01-28 2012-01-30 2012-02-01 2012-02-03 2012-02-05 2012-02-07 2012-02-09 2012-02-11 2012-02-13 2012-02-15 2012-02-17 2012-02-19 2012-02-21 2012-02-23 2012-02-25 2012-02-27 2012-02-29 2012-03-02 2012-03-04 2012-03-06 2012-03-08 2012-03-10 2012-03-12 2012-03-14 2012-03-16 2012-03-18 2012-03-20 2012-03-22 2012-03-24 2012-03-26 2012-03-28 2012-03-30 2012-04-01 2012-04-03 2012-04-05 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 2400 2450 2500 2012 1 4 20123 143 Tinysoft& 5 5 5.3. 2014 2014 2014 5.3.1. 2012 11 19 2012 12 19 2012 12 4 2013 2 8 5.3.1

5.3.1 2012/12/4 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2012/12/4 ( ) (%) SW SW SW SW SW 1,200,000,000 1,000,000,000 800,000,000 600,000,000 400,000,000 200,000,000 0-200,000,000-400,000,000 & 2012/11/19-2012/12/19 2012/12/4-2013/2/8 50% 30031% 2013 1 22 2013 2 22 2013 2 8 2013 4 16 5.3.2 2013/1/22-2013/2/22 2013/2/8-2013/4/16 12% 30013% HS300 5.3.2 2013/2/8 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% 2013/2/8 ( ) (%) SW SW SW SW SW 200000000 0-200000000 -400000000-600000000 -800000000-1000000000 -1200000000 & 92

2013 4 2 2013 5 22013 4 16 2013 5 30 5.3.3 5.3.3: 2013/4/16 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% 2013/4/16 ( ) (%) SW SW SW SW SW 200,000,000 100,000,000 0-100,000,000-200,000,000-300,000,000-400,000,000-500,000,000-600,000,000-700,000,000-800,000,000-900,000,000 & 2013/4/2-2013/5/2 10% 30% 2013/5/29-2013/6/25 5.3.4 93

5.3.4 2013/5/29 2013/5/29 0.00% -5.00% -10.00% -15.00% -20.00% -25.00% 3 ( ) 1 ( ( %) 1,000,000,000 0-1,000,000,000-2,000,000,000-3,000,000,000-4,000,000,000-5,000,000,000 & 10% 5.3.2. 1) 2012/12/4 2) 2013/2/8 3) 2012/4/16 4) 2012/5/29 1 3 1 2014 2014 94

5.3.3. 2014 5.3.5 2013/11/20 5.3.5 2013/11/20 2013/11/20 1 ( ) 3 ( ) 5 ( ) 0-1,000,000,000-2,000,000,000-3,000,000,000-4,000,000,000-5,000,000,000-6,000,000,000 SW SW SW SW SW & 2014 5.4. 5.4.1. 5 7, 9 95

11 8 300 11 19 11 15 11 18 3 4 5.4.2. Fisher Black Myron Scholes 1973 Black Scholes 5 1 2 3 4( ) 5 S 0 0 K r qt 96

delta theta gamma vega rho delta B-S delta N d 1 delta N d 1-1 Theta theta theta Gamma delta delta gamma gamma gamma gamma gammavega rho 5.4.3. 2013 11 29 100300 3 300 2439 2457 20% 6442 B-S 127 3 23.7% 4% 2439 23 442 20% 88.420% 64.9 284% 97

2012 11 5300 MACD 1 300 23021 15.44% 4%2302 1 1.95% 1.61% 1 300 23842220 300 2131 89 109% 30030% delta delta 0 delta 0 2013 8 1250 ETF 5000 3 2013 8 12 50 1610 BS1700 51.6 3.2% 20 4% 2013 11 12 50 1611 50% 2500 0.016 5050 3 8.8% 3.2%+ 1700/1610-1 30% 50 3 8.8% 5.4.4. 98

OBPI OBPI 2012-2012 22.3% 12 2013 2 12 2013 2 5 5.4.1 5.4.1 11.71 11.71 11. 71*1.05 11. 71*0.95 4.00% 4.00% 30.00% 30.00% 5 3 5 3 0.88 0.52 & 1.412% 3 2013 2 5 2013 5 3 5.4.1 99

54 24 44.4% 1.86 33% 5.4.1 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 13 12.5 12 11.5 11 10.5 10 9.5 9 8.5 8 Wind& 50 50 25.2% 30% 2013 12 6 1675 5% 3 5% 57 41 3.4% 2.4%5.8% 0.0003 1000 1000 5.4.2 1000 100.00% 739.00% 29.39% 44.80% 157.00% 74.00% 100% 26 & 100

5.4.2 40 30 percent 20 10 0-2.1-1.5-0.9-0.3 0.9 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.7 6.3 6.9 7.5 8.1 8.7 Wind& 5.4.2 5.4.2 26% 74% 739% 157% 44.8% 29.39% 80% 20% 5.4.3 5.4.3 0.808 2.486 1.06678 44.80% 1.322 0.86 & 101

5.4.3 40 30 percent 20 10 0 0.54 0.66 0.78 0.90 1.02 1.14 1.26 1.38 1.50 1.62 1.74 1.86 1.98 3.10 2.22 2.34 2.46 2.58 2.70 Wind& 5.4.30.8 2.486 148.6% 6.8% 27.2% 5.4.5. - delta Delta Delta Delta Delta Delta Delta Delta 1 Delta 0 Delta -1 Delta 0 B-S delta delta -1-1 1- delta 102

5.5. 5.5.1.. 103

5.5.2. 5.5.3. Greenwood Jovanovic(1990) King Levine(1993) Stiglitz Jaffee 104

Allen Santomero(1997) Santomero(1984) Levine 1991 Brennan(1987 1988) 105

King Levine(1993) De Gregorio(1993,1994) 5.5.4. King Levine(1993a,1993b) Levine(1997) Odedokun(1996) King Levine(1993a,1993b) TFP 77 1960-1989 Henry(2000) Tadesse(2003) 38 106

Beck Levine(2002) Cho(1988)/Gupta Lensink(1996) Rajan Zingales(1998) Wurgler(2000) Demirguc-Kunt Maksimovic(1998) A.Galindo et.(2006) Wurgler(2000) c c 65 28 c 5.6. 50ETF 5.6.1. 50ETF B-S B-S B-S B-S B-S: B-S 30 B-S B-S 50ETF B-S50ETF 107

5.6.2. 90 :7 1 1 1 2 3 B-S 5 ( ) 5.6.3. : ; ; 1 108

2 ( Si ) Si 3 4 B-S :(1) ;(2) Si i i=0, 1, n), 5.6.4. 109

1973 Robert Merton B-S : 50ETF :1 ;2;3 50 1% 4 30 10 31 1 2 3 6 12 50ETF 5.6.5. 50ETF ; 1 50ETF 50ETF 110

2 100 3 ( ) 50ETF 50ETF 3 100 50ETF 3 2. 5% 97. 56 50ETF3 100 2. 5% 3 50ETF 50ETF ; 50ETF ; 5.6.6. 50ETF 111

6 2014 6.1. 300 18 2014 2620-2686 2653 2013 2527.38 2527.38 2014 3 2794 2572 1 2527.38 2013 6 33103481 6.1.1 300 1 6.2 6.2.1. N 112

6.2.2. 2013 50 1 / / 6.2.3. SAS 1 6.2.1 2.7 300 3700.0 2.6 3600.0 2.5 3500.0 2.4 3400.0 2.3 3300.0 2.2 3200.0 2.1 3100.0 2.0 3000.0 1.9 2900.0 1.8 1.7 2800.0 2700.0 1.6 2600.0 1.5 2500.0 1.4 2400.0 1.3 2300.0 1.2 2200.0 1.1 2100.0 1.0 2000.0 0.9 1900.0 2010-01-012010-07-012011-01-012011-07-012012-01-012012-07-012013-01-012013-07-012014-01-01 & 6.2.2 2013 & 113

6.2.1 / 6.2.2 2013 6.2.3 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0-10000 -20000 10-04 10-05 10-06 10-07 10-08 10-09 10-10 10-11 10-12 11-01 11-02 11-03 11-04 11-05 11-06 11-07 11-08 11-09 11-10 11-11 11-12 12-01 12-02 12-03 12-04 12-05 12-06 12-07 12-08 12-09 12-10 12-11 12-12 13-01 13-02 13-03 13-04 13-05 13-06 13-07 13-08 13-09 13-10 13-11 13-12 30 20 10 0 & 44 2013 12 10 22.72% 4 10000 6.2.4 0 18850 T P <0.0001 0.23 0 6.2.4 30 25 20 percent 15 10 5 0-60000 -45000-30000 -15000 0 15000 30000 45000 60000 75000 90000 105000 & 114

6.2.1 2010 2011 2012 2013 833575.40 181230.26 263028.84 210391.50 178924.80 1821943.27 377974.11 524972.42 487408.35 431588.39-988367.87-196743.85-261943.58-277016.85-252663.59 40888.60 8255.74 12215.16 10516.50 9901.20 1145.02 1383.44 1328.43 1021.32 927.07 4520.95 5249.64 4772.48 4351.86 3959.53-3041.13-3334.64-2976.63-2946.99-3007.90 / 1.49 1.57 1.60 1.48 1.32 728 131 198 206 193 0.84 0.8 0.81 0.85 0.89 403 72 110 112 109 325 59 88 94 84 % 55.36 54.96 55.56 54.37 56.48 38944.04 38944.04 30176.5 30488.72 27210.19-19075.48-19075.48-3071.07-3056.87-4129.5 9 4 7 8 9 51993.34 42827.16 51993.34 42786.01 42751.19 8 3 4 5 8-24437.87-22130.04-12236.62-15278.59-24437.87-27699.78-24894.16-24764.42-27699.78-24437.87 % 3.95 3.95 3.54 2.7 2.01 39 20 34 39 32 45 24 45 42 34 & 6.2.1 2010 9 6.2.4. 0 115

2009 2013, wanggan@nawaa.com 021-68401154 xuchenxi@nawaa.com 0571-87830532 lrh@nawaa.com 010-63155309 2014 3 4 xiemj@nawaa.com 0755-82777923 116

1 2013 6 1.1. 2003-2012 10 2005 9% CPI 5% 2013 8% CPI 3.5%104.7% 1.1.1:2003-2005 BP 2003/6-2004/11 2.75-5.41 266 18 2004/12-2005/10 5.41-2.79 262 11 2004/9-2005/1 4.73-5.41 68 5 1.1.2:2006-2008 BP 2006/10-2008/7 2.94-4.60 166 22 2008/8-2008/12 4.56-2.69 187 5 2007/7-2008/8 4.00-4.60 60 14 1.1.3:2009-2012 BP 2009/1-2011/9 2.67-4.13 146 33 2011/10-2012/7 4.09-3.23 86 10 2010/11-2011/9 3.81-4.13 32 11 117

1.1.1: 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 YTM(10Y) % GDP: % CPI: % 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0-2.0 2003-01 2003-07 2004-01 2004-07 2005-01 2005-07 2006-01 2006-07 2007-01 2007-07 2008-01 2008-07 2009-01 2009-07 2010-01 2010-07 2011-01 2011-07 2012-01 2012-07 2013-01 2013-07 1.1.2: 24.0 22.0 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 :% : % 2003-01 2003-07 2004-01 2004-07 2005-01 2005-07 2006-01 2006-07 2007-01 2007-07 2008-01 2008-07 2009-01 2009-07 2010-01 2010-07 2011-01 2011-07 2012-01 2012-07 2013-01 2013-07 1.1.3: 8.00 :1 ( ) % :1 3 ( ) % 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 2003-01 2003-07 2004-01 2004-07 2005-01 2005-07 2006-01 2006-07 2007-01 2007-07 2008-01 2008-07 2009-01 2009-07 2010-01 2010-07 2011-01 2011-07 2012-01 2012-07 2013-01 2013-07 1.2. 50% 118

119 GDP 2009-2010 2012 2013 GDP 1.2.1: 1.2.2:GDP 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2010-03 2010-07 2010-11 2011-03 2011-07 2011-11 2012-03 2012-07 2012-11 2013-03 2013-07 % % % 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 /GDP 1.2.3: 1.2.4: 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 2002-01 2003-01 2004-01 2005-01 2006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01 : : % YTM 10Y % 55.0 56.0 57.0 58.0 59.0 60.0 61.0 62.0 63.0 2002-01 2002-11 2003-09 2004-07 2005-05 2006-03 2007-01 2007-11 2008-09 2009-07 2010-05 2011-03 2012-01 2012-11 5000 :% 1 5-6%

1.2.5: 1.2.6:70 25,000 : % 50.0 20 70 : % 70 : % 20,000 40.0 15 15,000 30.0 10 10,000 20.0 5 5,000 10.0 0 0 0.0-5 2009-12 2010-06 2010-12 2011-06 2011-12 2012-06 2012-12 2013-06 2009-01 2009-05 2009-09 2010-01 2010-05 2010-09 2011-01 2011-05 2011-09 2012-01 2012-05 2012-09 2013-01 2013-05 2013-09 1.3. 2013 2012 CPI 3.5% 3% 2014 1.3.1: 1.3.2: 35.0 30.0 % % % 60.0 50.0 80.0 60.0 : % : % 25.0 20.0 15.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 40.0 20.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 10.0 0.0-10.0 0.0-20.0 2009-02 2009-07 2009-12 2010-05 2010-10 2011-03 2011-08 2012-01 2012-06 2012-11 2013-04 2013-09 2009-02 2009-07 2009-12 2010-05 2010-10 2011-03 2011-08 2012-01 2012-06 2012-11 2013-04 2013-09 120

2 10 16% 12% 20%-25% 100% 121

2.1.1: 2.1.2: 20% 14% 18% 13% 16% 12% 14% 11% 12% 10% 10% 9% 8% 8% 2010-01 2010-05 2010-09 2011-01 2011-05 2011-09 2012-01 2012-05 2012-09 2013-01 2013-05 2013-09 2010-01 2010-04 2010-07 2010-10 2011-01 2011-04 2011-07 2011-10 2012-01 2012-04 2012-07 2012-10 2013-01 2013-04 2013-07 2013-10 =+ - =+ 6 8.46% 10 8.57% 6 3.53% 10 3.61% 6 17.3% 10 16.3% 2.1.3: 2.1.4: 9.0% 8.8% 8.6% 8.4% 8.2% 8.0% 7.8% 7.6% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 2010-01 2010-05 2010-09 2011-01 2011-05 2011-09 2012-01 2012-05 2012-09 2013-01 2013-05 2013-09 2010-01 2010-05 2010-09 2011-01 2011-05 2011-09 2012-01 2012-05 2012-09 2013-01 2013-05 2013-09 122

123 2.1.5: 2.1.6: -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2010-01 2010-05 2010-09 2011-01 2011-05 2011-09 2012-01 2012-05 2012-09 2013-01 2013-05 2013-09 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2010-01 2010-05 2010-09 2011-01 2011-05 2011-09 2012-01 2012-05 2012-09 2013-01 2013-05 2013-09 6 2.1.7: 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 :7

9 3 3.1. 2013 3.1.1. 94 2010 GDP 3.1.2. 124

3.1.3. GDP 2012 18 60%, 18 2009 5 2014 2014 125

CLO 3.2.,,, 3.2.1: GPD CPI 3.2.2: GDP CPI 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 CPI GDP 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 GDP CPI 6.0 5.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 0.0-2.0 (5.0) (10.0) 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 1962 1973 11, 16 1979 1994 15, 1981 1997 16 08 4 S=I 126

3.2.3: 35.0 : : : 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 2005-01 2005-07 2006-01 2006-07 2007-01 2007-07 2008-01 2008-07 2009-01 2009-07 2010-01 2010-07 2011-01 2011-07 2012-01 2012-07 2013-01 2013-07 2014 ABS CLO 2014 127

4 8%3.5% 2013 2014 2014 128

4.1.1:2014 4.1.2: 5 10 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2,009 2,010 2,011 2012 2013 0 2.50 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar -14 Apr -14 May -14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug -14 Sep-14 Oct -14 Nov -14 Dec -14 January February March April May June July August September October Novwember Deccember Wind Wind 5 09 4 5 IPO QE 3 4 5-6 129

130 1932 3 4008888910 www.nanhua.net 429 B 3 0571-83869588 99 4 0576-88539900 1 1401 0577-89971820 779 0574-87273868 12777 0574-63925104 751 0573-82158136 1 1 3101 0575-85095800 35 17 1706 028-86532693 488 26 ( ) 0931-8805310 129 A - 34 3401 3410 0411-84378378 28 2 B801 B802 B803 B805 B608 B609 010-63556906 2 25 0351-2118016 285 3 1601 0574-62509001 93 0451-82345618 73 9 14 0371-65613227 2B 2501 0532-85803555 51 15 C 024-22566878 41A 8 022-88371080 1589 26 021-50431979 663 1 3 7 021-52585211 4028 2703 0755-82577529 28 717 718 020-38806542 77 904 906 908 0553-3880212 1 1 1 1-2 023-62611588 63 11 0579-89292777 8989 0513-89011160 96 B 2104-2107 0592-2120370 3 8 0663-2663886 238 301 0573-80703000 15 1 2 0452-5883883 232 00852-28052658 0571-87994666

131