T_ReportAbstract T_FSAndVSAbstract T_PricingInfo 12.78 14.12 2008-09-16 T_IPOInfo 15,013 5,100 1,020 4,080 2008-09-16 T_ShareInfo 55.27% 26.01% 9.36% 6.24% 1.87% 1.25% T_Analyst 021-68766167 liujun@essences.com.cn 021-68765172 tanzy2@ essences.com.cn 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 1,498.2 2,272.5 3,518.4 3,967.1 4,566.9 Growth(%) 34.4% 51.7% 54.8% 12.8% 15.1% 63.3 162.7 343.9 322.1 394.3 Growth(%) -44.1% 156.5% 111.4% -6.3% 22.4% (%) 6.2% 8.2% 21.1% 19.5% 19.7% (%) 4.2% 7.2% 9.8% 8.1% 8.6% () 0.32 0.81 1.71 1.60 1.96 () 2.10 3.84 5.29 6.41 7.78 44.4 17.3 8.2 8.7 7.1 6.7 3.6 2.6 2.2 1.8 (%) 15.0% 21.1% 32.3% 25.0% 25.2% ROIC(%) 9.1% 16.0% 19.5% 16.1% 16.8% EV/EBITDA 51.7 20.0 5.8 5.5 4.6 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 3.4% 4.2% 1
1. 1.1. 1.2. 8297.25 55.27% 8297.25 41.25% 36 3904.59 26.01% 3904.59 19.41% 36 1405.74 9.36% 1405.74 6.99% 12 937.16 6.24% 937.16 4.66% 12 281.15 1.87% 281.15 1.40% 12 187.43 1.25% 187.43 0.93% 12 - - 5100 25.36% 15013.32 100% 20113.32 100% 2. 2.1. 2.1.1. 2
2.1.2. 2.1.2.1. 2.1.2.2. 3
2.1.3. 2.1.4. 4
2.1.5. 2.2. 2.2.1. 5
2.2.2. 2.2.3. 3. 3.1. 3.1.1. 6
3.1.2. 3.1.3. H12008 2007 2006 2005 % % % % - - 100 100 100 100 3.1.4. H12008 2007 2006 2005 % % % % 10,793.01 9.85 7
71.20 56.24 61.94 70.29 3.1.5. 3.2. 2008 H1 2007 2006 2005 20.76 21.07 15.03 31.64 7.65 4.22 5.6 7.38 26.35 18.25 15.53 23.85 0.54 0.43 0.41 0.65 0.29 0.3 0.31 0.47 65.28 70.57 83.15 79.4 4.57 12.77 9.55 8.39 18.7 24.53 14.93 14.64 1.52 2.14 1.85 0.74 EPS 1.35 1.08 0.42 0.76 4. 4.1. 1,000 / 51,248.88 36,480.02 34,248.88 19,480.02 16,480.02 3,000.00 1 [2004]2289 1,000 / 17,000.00 17,000.00 15,000.00 2,000.00 2 32000001949 51,248.88 36,480.02 31,480.02 5,000.00-4.2. 4.2.1. 8
4.2.2. 4.3. 4.3.1. 4.3.2. 2003-2006 2003 2004 2005 2006 430 530 1260 2000 9
2008-2010 2008 2009 2010 2500 3800 4000 3800 4500 4850 4000 4800 5000 5. 5.1. 2010E 2009E 2008E 500,000.00 1,600.00 10
5.2. () (X) 2007 2008E 2009E 2007 2008E 2009E 000707 0.20 0.82 1.05 33.98 8.45 6.63 600409 0.55 0.67 0.76 14.05 7.21 6.35 000822 0.42 0.70 0.76 16.82 9.22 8.49 600426 0.65 0.90 1.22 14.78 10.63 7.85 600423 0.64 0.87 1.16 15.18 8.98 6.73 000422 0.72 1.18 1.54 15.45 9.36 7.20 0.53 0.86 1.08 18.38 8.98 7.21 002274 0.81 1.71 1.60 6. 6.1. 6.2. 6.3. 11
6.4. 12
T_FSAndVS 2008-9-11 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 1,498.2 2,272.5 3,518.4 3,967.1 4,566.9 1,405.4 2,085.8 2,777.7 3,191.9 3,665.1 34.4% 51.7% 54.8% 12.8% 15.1% 2.3 2.8 7.3 8.2 9.4-32.6% 94.8% 126.5% 1.6% 22.4% 47.7 69.7 102.3 111.1 123.3-44.1% 156.5% 111.4% -6.3% 22.4% 56.1 71.5 113.9 123.0 137.0 EBITDA -21.7% 185.4% 319.0% 7.1% 20.0% 32.9 83.7 95.5 103.4 106.4 EBIT -126.9% -478.8% 1127.4% 2.9% 18.6% 0.9 0.4-0.6 - - NOPLAT -35.9% 177.4% 78.1% -5.2% 18.6% - - - - - 57.1% 46.1% 15.0% 13.1% 9.3% 3.0-0.0 0.4 - - 17.6% 82.9% 37.8% 21.2% 21.4% 95.8 186.6 422.7 429.5 525.7-1.4-2.5-0.2 - - 6.2% 8.2% 21.1% 19.5% 19.7% 94.4 184.1 422.5 429.5 525.7 6.4% 8.2% 12.0% 10.8% 11.5% 31.1 21.4 78.6 107.4 131.4 4.2% 7.2% 9.8% 8.1% 8.6% 63.3 162.7 343.9 322.1 394.3 EBITDA/ 4.1% 7.7% 20.8% 19.7% 20.6% 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E EBIT/ -0.7% 1.9% 14.7% 13.4% 13.8% 226.3 160.2 481.5 537.4 615.4 - - - - - 229 232 202 200 199 96.7 77.1 82.3 92.8 106.9-36 -10 19 20 13 24.0 57.2 83.9 94.6 108.9 122 86 81 100 98 58.5 94.0 91.1 87.8 84.1 21 13 8 8 8 127.6 163.1 296.8 341.1 391.6 32 23 24 29 29-0.0 0.0 5.0 6.9 9.3 510 406 304 324 319 - - - - - 291 289 238 241 232 - - - - - - 11.5 20.0 20.0 20.0 ROE 15.0% 21.1% 32.3% 25.0% 25.2% - - - - - ROA 2.5% 6.2% 10.3% 8.4% 9.2% 1,063.5 1,861.8 2,088.0 2,317.6 2,743.3 ROIC 9.1% 16.0% 19.5% 16.1% 16.8% 764.0 58.2 25.8 167.9 46.8 140.7 137.9 138.0 138.1 138.1 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 4.4 3.0 10.7 10.7 10.7 3.7% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2,505.7 2,624.0 3,323.1 3,814.8 4,275.1 2.2% 3.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.3% 505.0 690.0 895.0 974.4 1,008.9 / 9.1% 9.9% 8.9% 8.5% 8.0% 273.2 176.0 240.3 276.2 317.1 294.6 120.0 112.5 129.3 148.5 83.2% 70.6% 68.0% 66.2% 63.4% 238.8 288.5 394.0 488.2 597.8 493.5% 239.8% 212.3% 195.8% 173.1% 530.0 545.0 585.0 625.0 605.0 0.41 0.43 0.63 0.62 0.64 241.9 32.3 32.3 32.3 32.3 0.31 0.30 0.45 0.44 0.45 2,083.5 1,851.8 2,259.1 2,525.3 2,709.6-0.34 0.50 5.43 5.15 5.94 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 150.1 150.1 201.1 201.1 201.1 DPS() - - 0.51 0.48 0.59 271.6 621.5 862.1 1,087.4 1,363.2 0.0% 0.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 422.2 772.2 1,063.9 1,289.5 1,565.5 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 3.4% 4.2% 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 63.3 162.7 343.9 322.1 394.3 EPS() 0.32 0.81 1.71 1.60 1.96 74.9 135.1 212.7 249.8 306.9 BVPS() 2.10 3.84 5.29 6.41 7.78 0.9 0.4-0.6 - - PE(X) 44.4 17.3 8.2 8.7 7.1 - - - - - PB(X) 6.7 3.6 2.6 2.2 1.8 27.9 36.2 86.7 95.5 103.4 P/FCF - -8.9 10.3 24.2 19.0-3.0 0.0-0.4 - - P/S 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.6-0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 EV/EBITDA 51.7 20.0 5.8 5.5 4.6 142.3-404.8-18.2 82.8 92.1 CAGR(%) 72.0% 34.3% 9.6% -100.0% -100.0% 278.4 320.7 633.1 758.3 899.9 PEG 0.6 0.5 0.9-0.1-0.1-742.4-298.4-408.2-610.1-600.1 ROIC/WACC 1.1 1.9 2.3 1.9 2.0 480.7 40.2 107.4-80.6-210.0 REP 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 Wind.NET 13
T_AuthorInfo 6 300 15% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300-5% 5% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300 15% A 300 B 300 T_Sales 021-68763879 zhangqin@essences.com.cn 021-68765206 nanfang@essences.com.cn 021-68763872 ligr@essences.com.cn 010-66581689 lixin@essences.com.cn 010-66581668 mazn@essences.com.cn 0755-82558268 panlin@essences.com.cn 0755-82558089 zhangqp@essences.com.cn 0755-82558084 lijin@essences.com.cn : 518026 : 200122 : 100034 14