Page 1 3G - 28 5 2-21-6886525 E-mail yanping@guosen.com.cn 28 5 5 3G 11% 212 12267 28 5 23 8522 P/B EPS P/E X (X) 27 28E 29E 27 28E 29E A 9.26 65 3.53.27.27.35 34.8 34.3 26.5 13.1 941 6.27 4.28 5.7 6.74 27.4 2.5 17.4 5.3 728 1.75.29.3.31 16.4 16. 15.2 24.5 96 1.76 1.7 1.51 1.46 12.7 14.4 14.8 16.52 762 2.9.71.72.94 2.9 2.6 15.9 P/B P/E 1.9
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Page 4 1 3G λ λ λ λ λ 3G
Page 5 3G 11% 212 12267
Page 6 GDP 27 7144 728 98.1% / 2 27 6.7 41.6 12.4 27.8 28 3 9.36 3.61 5.75 7147 2 3-7 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 67.1% 32.9% 19.9% 24.7% 11.8% 14.1% 11.4% 9.6% 1.7% 11.7% 12.% 7.8% 7.9% 7.8% 9.5% 7.8% 1.7% 1.9% 5.% 4.4% 26 27 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 41.6 35.3 3.3 25.9 27. 28.1 27.8 21. 24.1 12.4 6.7 1949 1978 198 1985 199 1995 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 1 5-7 25 43.3% 6.7% 27 5.9% 8.4% 5Q1 5Q2 5Q3 5Q4 6Q1 6Q2 6Q3 6Q4 7Q1 7Q2 7Q3 7Q4 43.3% 43.5% 44.2% 44.4% 45.6% 46.5% 47.1% 47.3% 48.4% 49.9% 5.8% 5.9% 6.7% 6.8% 7.% 7.1% 7.4% 7.7% 7.7% 7.9% 8.1% 7.8% 7.9% 8.4% 18.5% 18.5% 18.6% 18.4% 17.5% 17.5% 17.5% 17.4% 16.7% 16.7% 16.5% 16.6% 31.3% 31.% 3.1% 29.9% 29.4% 28.2% 27.6% 27.3% 26.7% 25.5% 24.8% 24.%
Page 7 3G 3G TDSCDMA 3G 3 3G 4 3G TDSCDMA C WCDMA G CDMA2 3G 3G 11% 212 12267
Page 8
Page 9 + 1 + 117% 22 4.21 2.7 2.14 27 9.13 5.47 3.65 22 49% 27 6% 5 2-7 + 117% 6 2-7 11 9. 8. 5.5 5. 61% 59% 7. 6. 4.5 4. 57% 5. 3.5 55% 4. 3. 53% 3. 2. 2.5 2. 51% 1. 1.5 49%. 22 23 24 25 26 27 1. 22 23 24 25 26 27 47% 27 + 54% 22 5572 5247 325 27 8595 1949 6646 22 6% 27 77%
Page 1 7 2-7 + 54% 8 2-7 71 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 22 23 24 25 26 27 22 23 24 25 26 27 % Mar-8/ 44% 1% 8 S 9 3Q7 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Mar-8/ 18% 55% 26 67%
Page 11 1 5-11 11 98-7 1 2.1 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 92.4% 93.4% 89.4% 82.7% 73.3% 72.3% 67.2% 7.% 61.7% 62.6% 64.9% 67.6% 64.6% 6.9% 6.1% 53.6% 45.9% 37.6% 94.1% 73.6% 69.3% 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 3% 25 26 27E 28E 29E 21E 211E 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 2 + + 26% 22 967 4184 5486 27 29633 2356 6577 2-7 4.7% 12 2-7 + 26% 13 2-7 4.7% 3 27 24 21 18 24 21 18 15 6% 55% 5% 45% 15 12 4% 12 9 6 3 9 6 3 35% 3% 25% 22 23 24 25 26 27 22 23 24 25 26 27 2% + 173% 22 952 423 529 27 2594 1561 133 7 6%
Page 12 14 2-7 + 173% 15 2-7 7 6% 27 24 16 14 8% 7% 21 12 6% 18 15 12 1 8 5% 4% 9 6 3% 6 4 2% 3 2 1% 22 23 24 25 26 27 22 23 24 25 26 27 % + 3 27 25.7% 22% 36.5% 34.7% 2 4-7 % 24 25 26 27 YoY(5VS4) YoY(6VS5) YoY(7VS6) 316.5 51.9 693.1 916.1 58.6% 38.1% 32.2% 15.5% 2.6% 23.5% 25.7% 5.1% 2.8% 2.2% 72.4 119.6 169.7 199.4 65.2% 41.9% 17.5% 1.1% 15.% 19.3% 22.% 4.9% 4.3% 2.7% 316.8 393.5 497.3 64.5 24.2% 26.4% 28.8% 2.7% 24.2% 29.1% 36.5% 3.5% 4.9% 7.4% 128.1 159.9 26.3 286.6 24.7% 29.1% 38.9% 16.2% 19.1% 25.2% 34.7% 2.9% 6.2% 9.5%
Page 13 16 4-7 17 1 9 3% 28% 45 4 8 26% 35 7 24% 3 6 5 4 22% 2% 18% 25 2 3 16% 15 2 14% 1 1 12% 5 24 25 26 27 1% 24 25 26 27 18 4-7 19 7 45% 35 6 4% 3 5 35% 25 3% 2 4 25% 15 3 2% 1 2 15% 5 1 24 25 26 27 1% 25 26 27
Page 14 2 5.5 18% 3G 4 53% 21 2-7 53% 22 2-7 3% -1% -11% -12% -13% -14% -15% -16% -17% -18% -19% -2% 1. 22 23 24 25 26 27-12.6%.87.71-18.7% -11.2%.63-13.2%.55-13.6%.47 1..9.8.7.6.5.4 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 22 23 24 25 26 27 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% %
Page 15 4-7.1 / 7 ARPU 3 4-7.1 / 24 25 26 27 YoY(5VS4) YoY(6VS5) YoY(7VS6) 476.5 476.2 461.9 423.4.% -3.% -8.3% 4291.5 4494. 4225.6 462.7 4.7% -6.% -3.9% /.111.16.19.14-4.6% 3.1% -4.6% 248.6 245.8 22.6 199.9-1.1% -1.3% -9.4% 2346.6 2284.4 2144.7 225.5-2.7% -6.1% -5.6% /.16.18.13.99 1.6% -4.4% -4.% 4 4-77ARPU ARPU 24 25 26 27 YoY(5VS4) YoY(6VS5) YoY(7VS6) 12. 81. 77. 8. -2.6% -4.9% 3.9% 73.2 65.3 64.9 67.4-1.8% -.6% 3.9% 4-7 27.125 G.12 C.128 5 4-7 G C 24 25 26 27 YoY(5VS4) YoY(6VS5) YoY(7VS6) 1285.3 1567.1 1897.1 2264.9 21.9% 21.1% 19.4% 669. 931.2 12521.5 18188.9 36.7% 38.6% 45.3% /.194.174.152.125-1.8% -12.7% -17.8% /.39.269.236.196-12.9% -12.3% -16.9% 346.1 355.4 389.9 411.4 2.7% 9.7% 5.5% 1782. 2174. 2894.7 3414.1 22.% 33.2% 17.9% /.194.163.135.12-15.8% -17.6% -1.5% /.262.24.27.184-8.4% -13.8% -11.1% 17.9 181.3 168.5 16.1 6.1% -7.1% -5.% 83. 118. 1173.2 1254.3 22.7% 15.2% 6.9% /.26.178.144.128-13.5% -19.4% -11.1% /.292.271.238.221-7.2% -12.2% -7.1%
Page 16 11% 27 Jan-7 6.1% Mar-8 17.6% Jan-7 6.6% Mar-8 1.8% 1 2 6 71Q817.6% Jan-7 Feb-7 Mar-7 Apr-7 May-7 Jun-7 Jul-7 Aug-7 Sep-7 Oct-7 Nov-7 Dec-7Jan-8 Feb-8 Mar-8 532.4 52.7 597.4 632.5 63.8 629.4 587.7 649. 636.8 667.1 582.4 64.9 612.8 67.5 721.1 YoY1 % 6.1% 6.9% 7.6% 9.7% 1.3% 12.% 11.4% 12.1% 12.3% 13.% 12.4% 12.3% 15.1% 15.9% 17.6% YoY2 % 6.6% 7.7% 8.4% 8.9% 9.6% 9.9% 1.1% 1.7% 11.% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.% 1.1% 1.8% YoY YoY1 YoY2 8-12 11% 212 12267 23 7 1Q8 17.6% 24 8-12 11% 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 14 12 1 8 6 4 4222 6492 584 5275 4598 12267 1152 9956 897 881 728 19% 17% 15% 13% 11% 9% 35 6% 2 7% 3 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 4% 22 23 24 25 26 27 28E 29E 21E 211E 212E 5%
Page 17 25 2 1 7 24 25 26 27 239.9 243.4 2953.6 3569.6 791.4 87.5 942.9 995.4 1527.5 1625.3 176.5 1753.6 791.5 824.6 817.9 824.9 515.3 575.7 642.9 7143.5 5275.1 584.1 6491.8 728.1 % 97.6% 98.5% 98.9% 98.1%
Page 18 26 53% 11.5% 7.6% 24
Page 19 27 G+ C+ + 3Q8 8 3G 9 TD CMDA2 WCDMA 3G 3G 3G
Page 2 3G 3G WCDMA CDMA2 TDSCDMA 3G 7 66% 2 A 9. 32 13 234 7.3 A 2.4 3.6
Page 21 8 3G A 8522 EPS P/E X P/B X 27 28E 29E 27 28E 29E A 9.26 65 3.53.27.27.35 34.8 34.3 26.5 13.1 941 6.27 4.28 5.7 6.74 27.4 2.5 17.4 5.3 728 1.75.29.3.31 16.4 16. 15.2 24.5 96 1.76 1.7 1.51 1.46 12.7 14.4 14.8 16.52 762 2.9.71.72.94 2.9 2.6 15.9 P/B P/E 1.9
Page 22 6 2% 6 1%-2% 6 ±1% 6 1% 6 1% 6 5%-1% 6 ±5% 6 5%
IT I T 21 68864592 shengjp@guosen.com.cn 21 6886625 maxd@guosen.com.cn 21 6886625 zhengyi@guosen.com.cn 1 82252615 wangxj@guosen.com.cn 1 82252236 wanglf@guosen.com.cn 1 82259782 tancy@guosen.com.cn 755 82133147 wangcs@guosen.com.cn 755 821368 liuqin@guosen.com.cn 755 8213818 liuyh@guosen.com.cn 755 82133148 shaoyf@guosen.com.cn