006 08 08 5 sunfh@pasc.com.cn 5 5 1 1 4 5 6 7 4~5 1 006--010 10.09% 15.% 006--010 9.55% 6.89% 00--010 61.% 6.15% 4 006--010 4.50% 6.11% 5 006--010 1.07% 5.56% 6 006--010 0.46% 5.46% 7 00--010 45.90% 4.84% 8 005--010 7.84% 4.18% 9 006--010 0.0%.77% 10 006--010 0.6%.76% 11 005--010 1.57%.1% 1 005--010 8.61% 1.9% 1 005--010-6.4% -1.10% (0755) 840156
1 90 4 6 1 500 6 7 KOSPI 8 4 9 10 /15
1 90 70~80 1.7%90.5% 90 ICT ICT ICT 1995 1995 7 90 ICT ICT GDP 1 90 1995~000 000~00 0 1 1997=100 00 50 00 150 100 50 0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 199 199 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 000 001 00 00 004 /15
4/15 1995 ~000 1 00 1995~000 % - 0 4 6 8 10 % 199=100 0 50 100 150 00 50 00 1991 199 199 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 000 001 00 00 004 1 OECD
GDP 70% 005 80% 4 5 OECD 90 001 4 OECD 1995=100 00 180 160 140 10 100 80 60 199 199 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 000 001 199 199 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 000 001 OECD STAN 5 OECD 199=100 10 10 110 100 90 80 70 60 199 199 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 000 001 199 199 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 000 001 OECD STAN 6 5/15
7 10 10 6 $5 $0 $15 $10 $5 $0 1964 1968 197 1976 1980 1984 1988 199 1996 000 004 7 014 10 004 014 % 67 10 5 79.1 77. 1,10.0 57.1 69.5 8.7 400 161. 67.6 779 1,50.0 471. 60.5 58.6 90.1 19.5 54.8 98.4 447.4 149 49.9 154 0.8 76.8 49.9 71.7 107 5. 49. 7.1 496.7 159.6 47. 115.6 170 54.4 47.1 1 500 8 1990005 6/15
7/15 8 1990-005 500-0% -0% -10% 0% 10% 0% 0% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1990-0051990-0051990-005 500 bloomberg 198 ~005 9-1 9-80 ~90 95 ~000 5 9-1 198~005-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 00% 50%198-005
8/15 9-198~005-60% -40% -0% 0% 0% 40% 60% 80% 100% 10% 198-005 198-005 bloomberg KOSPI 196 199 70 80 1997 10-1 10-0 1980-1990 15. 90 10% 90% 1990-001 1995 7.% GDP 5.9% 00 87 001 7.7%GDP 1.7% 10-1 1986~005 KOSPI -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 00% 50% 00% 1986-005 KOSPI
9/15 10-1986~005 KOSPI -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 00% 50% 1986-005 1986-005 KOSPI KOSPI bloomberg 4 11-1 11-000 90 GDP 7% GDP 11 11-1 001-005 -40% -0% -0% -10% 0% 10% 0% 0% 40% 50% 001-005 001-005 001-005
11-000 00% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% 0006 0009 0001 001 0016 0019 0011 00 006 009 001 00 006 009 001 004 0046 0049 0041 005 0056 0059 0051 006 0066-100% 4~5 5 5 10/15
: 0.516975775.50859% 5 5.87 (1 0.050859) 5 = 5.16975775 5.87 005 48% 1% 004 09 005 4.98% 010 48% 1 199~00 010 00 61.% 6.15% y = 85.846 1.405x1 + 0.16079x. 8464x x1 GDP x x 010 GDP 00 14.9468% 010 00 61.55% 00~005 010 005 10.09% 15.% y = 86.074 + 5.8169x1 1.6657x. 44495x x1 GDP x x 00 74.8795% 7.70% 010 00 10.09% 001~005 010 005 0.6%.76% GDP 11/15
y = 6.67908 +.916087x1 0.05866x 0. 04167x x1 GDP x x GDP 5 0.45% GDP 010 005 195.77% 010 005 0.5756% 4 199~005 010 005 0.0%.77% GDP y = 10.4505 + 0.5486x 1 + 0.119589x x1 GDP x 010 005 0.9517% 5 00~005 010 005 0.46 5.46% y = 41.0144-0.068x1-0.19478x + 0.05819x x1 GDP x x 010 8.09418 010 60.01748% 010 005 0.46416% 6 199~005 010 005 9.55% 6.89% GDP : y = 15.857 + 1.5467x1-0.0168x x1 GDP x 46.86085% 010 005 9.54545% 7 001~005 010 005 1.07% 5.56% GDP y = 55.8118 -.1981x 1 + 0.0949x x1 GDP x 010 11.98% 1.0689% 8 001~004 010 004 7.84% 4.18% 1/15
y = 54.860-4.469x + 1 + 0.49104x 0.019451x x1 GDP x x R&D 010 004 15.78% R&D GDP R&D GDP 010 R&D 4.4617 010 7.8517% 9 199~00 010 00 45.9% 4.84% GDP y = 9.481481+ 1.4088x1-0.1567x + 0.7491x x1 GDP x x 010 00 9.4465% 010 00 45.9887% 10 001~004 010 004-6.4 1.10% GDP y = 81.8178-7.0486x1 + 0.1691x + 4.6715x x1 GDP x x 010 40.06%010 0.8 010-6.4746% 11 001~004 010 004 1.57%.1% GDP y = 59.57541+ 0.46586x1-0.7547x - 0.04556x x1 GDP x x GDP 010 155.6098 GDP 010 004 74.40097% 010 004 1.5749% 1 1991~005 010 004 4.5 6.11% 1/15
y = 9.95 +1.8505x1-0.5076x x1 x 010 005 4.5146 % 1 001~004 010 004 8.61% 1.9% GDP y = 19.806-0.747x1 + 0.07486x - 0.01966x x1 GDP x x GDP 180.67% GDP 010 487.4815%, 010 004 8.6189% 1 1 006--010 10.09% 15.% 006--010 9.55% 6.89% 00--010 61.% 6.15% 4 006--010 4.50% 6.11% 5 006--010 1.07% 5.56% 6 006--010 0.46% 5.46% 7 00--010 45.90% 4.84% 8 005--010 7.84% 4.18% 9 006--010 0.0%.77% 10 006--010 0.6%.76% 11 005--010 1.57%.1% 1 005--010 8.61% 1.9% 1 005--010-6.4% -1.10% wind bloomberg 4~5 14/15
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