200 2015. 1 ACADEMICS No. 1 Jan. 2015 * 200237 Logit 1 2 * 09CSH005 B501 47

2015. 1 3 2000 5227. 2 2012 17587. 7 3. 4 2012 46769 28752 18017 4 2012 43797. 5 1587. 7 20 2013 5 6 48

7 8 9 10 11 T H 12 13 14 15-16 17 18 Verbon 19 Breyer 20 21 49

2015. 1 22 23 24 25 CGSS CHARLS Logit 1 50

1 2012 37102 22981 61. 94% 26261 4543 13. 70% 26 2012 48369. 6 67. 1% 27 2005 275891 54765 19. 8% 2010 21922. 4 5107. 9 23. 3% 28 CGSS 2005 2006 2008 2010 29 60 1 0 logit / / 51

2015. 1 2 2 *** p < 0. 01 ** p < 0. 05 * p < 0. 1 CGSS 2003 2005 2006 2008 2010 2010 10. 96% e^0. 104-1 2010 0. 03% 30 2003 2010 52

24. 1% e^ - 1. 422 26. 77% e^ - 1. 318 14. 88% e^ - 1. 905 33. 89% e^ - 1. 082 33. 42% e^ - 1. 096 4. 15 3. 74 6. 72 2. 95 2. 99 2009 / / / 2010 / 31 3 2010 58 2012 72 2010 1380 2055 1929 53

2015. 1 1. 49 1. 40 2012 1700 2352 2380 1. 38 1. 40 3 / 2013 2010 2011 2012 2012 4 32 4 *** p < 0. 01 ** p < 0. 05 * p < 0. 1 2012 54

/ 2012 5 2012 15792 1. 7 2. 4 3. 0 3. 1 2012 859 23. 7 33. 1 2012 55

2015. 1 2012 2012 5 2013 6 7 6 2012 7 2012 2012 53. 2% 33. 9% 0. 64 1% 0. 64% 3. 3% 6. 5% 1. 95 1% 1. 95% 1. 11 1. 53 1. 69 56

6 2013 2012 7 0. 06 1. 43 1. 94 2. 0 6. 58 1% 0. 06% 1% 6. 58% 1% 6 7 7 2013 2012 2012 G K M P N Q G = 1 - K M k Q k - 1 + G k 6 7 0. 23 0. 59 2. 57 57

2015. 1 33 20 90 34 35 58

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2015. 1 11 Grand J. The Strategy of Equality London Allen and Unwin 1982. 12 Fraser N. Justice Interruptus critical reflections on the post - socialist condition London Routledge Press 1997. 13 Lipset S. M. Political Man. New York Doubleday Anchor 1960. 14 2009 18 15 Paul Pierson Dismantling. The Welfare State Reagan Thatcher and the Politics of Retrenchment Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1997. p. 3. 17 Paul Samuelson A. An Exact Consumption - Loan Model of Interest With or Without the Social Contrivance of Money. Journal of Politicial Economy 1958. p. 66. p. 55. Berlin. 18 Diamond Peter A. National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model. American Economic Review 1965. 19 Verbon H. A. 1988. The Evolution of Public Pension Schemes Springer Microeconomic studies 20 Breyer F. On the Intergenerational Pareto Efficiency of Pay - as - You - go Financel Pension System. Journal of Institutional and Theretical Economics 1989. p. 145. 21 2005 10 22 2012 6 23 2013 8 24 2005 5 25 Ahmad W. and Craig G. Race and Social welfare in P. Alcock A. Erskine and M. May eds The Student s Companion to Social Policy Oxford Blackwell. 2003. 26 2012 http / /www. mohrss. gov. cn /SYrlzyhshbzb /dongtaixinwen /shizhengyaowen /201305 /t20130528_103939. htm 27 2012 2012 28 2013 29 CGSS 2003 2005 2006 2008 2010 30 2006 2006 31 2002 32 CHARLS 2012 36 Walder Ander. Markets and Inequality in Transitional Economies Toward Testable Theories American Journal of Sociology 1996. p. 101. 60